The Great Collectibles Bubble: Waiting To Pop? 1 1

[Randall Ries]

3 minutes ago, Rip said:

Not a fan of the article. But is this is a bubble? I would say yes in certain segments.

I've certainly seen an increase in the micro-trend, (micro-cycle or whatever you want to call it), phenomena taking place.

Prices that would once takes months or years to move up and down, now see prices/ market trends move in days/weeks. Trends move and shift about as fast as You-Tubers can make videos. I've already seen this year, various collectible areas where big money is tossed in not knowing the established market or outcome. Then bail into the next hottest thing leaving plummeting prices behind. I suspect you'll see an increase of these mirco-cycles in comics as new collectors (card investors etc.) are less attached to their investments and more inclined to buy and sell quickly based on very recent performance and future speculation. I'm thinking many books once thought of as Blue-Chip Silver age books as just as subject to these quick cycles than some of the more modern stuff now. The money and scarcity is there to do it.

Now more than ever it pays to be up to date, sometimes even the hour or what's happening

There was a line in "Citizen Kane" that went something like "Making money isn't all that hard a thing to do. If that's all you want to do in life is to make money." Something like that.

I only noticed this market a couple months ago when someone said "Sports carts are HOT!" Huh? No, they aren't. They have been dead for a long time. And that was true. But overnight, suddenly they were hot because of the first few outlandish auction sales. And like seagulls to  spilled french fries they flocked....

[rapid08]

All assets feel like musical chairs at this point. Stock, collectibles, houses, etc. Hope you can time the inevitable pop.

 

[Darkowl]

One problem with this situation is that nobody knows how much these books are really worth anymore, especially with how fast the prices are changing. You could argue that they’re only worth what people are willing to pay, but to what extent is that really?

One copy of H181 sells for 2K higher than it normally does in a BIN listing on eBay, and it suddenly becomes the new "normal" price?

What exactly are we basing the value of these books off of? You could argue that it’s supply and demand, but what is driving up the demand the most? Speculation? Bored people at home with too much money? Conventions not occurring due to lockdowns? The new stimulus checks to fund these books that people couldn’t before afford? Tax returns?

After you remove some of these “demand” catalysts, will we see a minor correction or a huge crash? Just how sustainable is this current market?

One thing’s for sure, I’ve been collecting and selling comics since the 90’s and I’ve NEVER seen anything like this to this degree. It’s like the WD1 phenomenon on steroids. 

This doesn't look like healthy growth to me when it's so remarkably unpredictable. I'm a bit concerned, tbh.

Edited March 24, 2021 by Darkowl

[Galen130]

So many speculators out there that have their own opinions...the article seems to have been written haphazardly.  Thanks for sharing it though.  It’s a good conversation starter.👍

I haven’t purchased anything since last September, and that was a couple raw books off the Comic Market.  I haven’t sent books in for grading since then either because I’m trying to keep bills paid.  My sales thread only does a little bit of business...again, proceeds go to paying bills.  I can't afford to participate in this frenzy...I'm living in the real world.  If ‘rich’ people are spending money on comics, they aren’t buying my stuff.  I know I’m not sitting at home making cash appear out of thin air either. 🤣

I have my own reasons as to why, but I’m not working either...nor am I drawing unemployment.  I don’t like getting helped with something I didn’t ask for, or cause.  I make it work.  If I was rich and had money to spend, I think I’d be helping out those who really need it.  Bubbles are created...bubbles burst.  I don’t see anything different here than what’s going on with the stock markets these days.  Someone always ends up paying the piper...it’s usually those on the sidelines.  IMO.  But if you can make it work, more power to you.  Just try not to trample people on the way out when the bubble bursts. 

Edited March 24, 2021 by Galen130
stupid iPad auto correct...

[the blob]

1 hour ago, the blob said:

"I'm thinking this may be a perfect time to move a ton of personal collection stuff that I have been sitting on a long time.

Not to "liquidate" mind you, but sell at nutty inflated prices."

Does the bulk of your collection consist of keys, semi-keys, and semi-keys of the moment? For the most part your run filler books have not done much.

I keep on saying the same thing because i am in the process of going through my collection/inventory, 25K or so books and it is a reminder of how many of those books ARE NOT hot and have not been impacted (in any significant way) lately ... and I am not all that heavy loaded with moderns. I went through three captain america boxes and three iron man boxes and pulled out maybe 15-25 books from each group that seem to have been impacted lately, and some of those are on the fringe. true, maybe that is oversimplifying it. if 2% of the books are just stupid now when it used to be .5%, maybe that's enough.

Edited March 24, 2021 by the blob

[vheflin]

2 hours ago, grebal said:

What else you gonna buy with your Reichsmarks, bitcoin?

[Galen130]

1 minute ago, vheflin said:

I still have some deutschmarks left....does that count???

[InfantTerrible]

It's not a bubble if it doesn't pop 

What goes up, can still go a lot higher 

[StingerMcK]

Some friends and I have also discussed some of this is market manipulation.  It wouldn't take much for a few people selling to each other on the bay, driving up prices on a book.  Then you have a few high price sold listings and then panic hits for those who don't have that hot new issue!

[Darkowl]

1 minute ago, IronMan_Cave said:

It's not a bubble if it doesn't pop 

What goes up, can still go a lot higher 

It's a bubble until it pops. 

[Randall Ries]

54 minutes ago, Galen130 said:

So many speculators out there that have their own opinions...the article seems to have been written haphazardly.  Thanks for sharing it though.  It’s a good conversation starter.👍

 

I have my own reasons as to why, but I’m not working either...nor am I drawing unemployment.  I don’t like getting helped with something I didn’t ask for, or cause.  I make it work.

You are welcome. I thought it deserved some attention and not just getting glossed over. The article is a bit scattered but likely geared toward people who have no idea about this market. Still run into people who are amazed at what sums comic books can yield. Mentioned a sale of a Bat 1 for over a mill to a kid I buy coffee from. He said "Wow! I'll have to check and see if I have one of those!" Truly was amazed and flabbergasted. Sure. LMK if you do. Pretty sure he DOESN'T "have one of those". Nice lad, though.

And it was the sports card thing that got me reading about all this. They really were dead in the water only a few months ago. Suddenly they were on fire. Then start seeing people paying goofy money for IH 181. Goofier than usual. Then the 9.8 Transformers book. Nah. That's more than some 30 something with feelings of nostalgia. Something is not right, here.

As a small business owner, I took all the "help" I could get. If we fail, well, I am too old to be doing what I used to do. Body is beginning to fail. We pay more taxes than most people typically do and so I felt absolutely FINE with it.

[Darkowl]

5 minutes ago, StingerMcK said:

 panic hits for those who don't have that hot new issue!

Panic. Also a valid catalyst. I think that's what happened with Peter Panzerfaust. People so wanted it to be the next WD1. It wasn't.

If panic and desperation is what's driving up these prices, then I'm even more concerned.

Edited March 24, 2021 by Darkowl

[Randall Ries]

5 minutes ago, IronMan_Cave said:

It's not a bubble if it doesn't pop 

What goes up, can still go a lot higher 

Thing is there are tell tales signs it's a bubble. The problem with bubbles is we never know when they will pop. They all do though, eventually. Then one is left with basically what the book was worth pre bubble. Maybe less for awhile. Then people turn into another kind of animal and lowball everyone around them trying to buy low.

[Galen130]

15 minutes ago, Randall Ries said:

You are welcome. I thought it deserved some attention and not just getting glossed over. The article is a bit scattered but likely geared toward people who have no idea about this market. Still run into people who are amazed at what sums comic books can yield. Mentioned a sale of a Bat 1 for over a mill to a kid I buy coffee from. He said "Wow! I'll have to check and see if I have one of those!" Truly was amazed and flabbergasted. Sure. LMK if you do. Pretty sure he DOESN'T "have one of those". Nice lad, though.

And it was the sports card thing that got me reading about all this. They really were dead in the water only a few months ago. Suddenly they were on fire. Then start seeing people paying goofy money for IH 181. Goofier than usual. Then the 9.8 Transformers book. Nah. That's more than some 30 something with feelings of nostalgia. Something is not right, here.

As a small business owner, I took all the "help" I could get. If we fail, well, I am too old to be doing what I used to do. Body is beginning to fail. We pay more taxes than most people typically do and so I felt absolutely FINE with it.

I agree with the cards thing as well....all those non-sport card auctions that are just nuts.  I spent five minutes realizing that I have some of those cards, i.e. 1992 Marvel Masterpieces, but decided it wasn't worth acting on.  Can't afford to send them in, don't have a feebay account anymore, can't sell other grading companies products in CGC threads, etc.  I'm trying to survive here...can't afford the risk.  Besides, way to much scamming and manipulation out there because there are more people sitting at home not doing anything that will fall for stuff like this.  As far as I'm concerned, it's a losing proposition...from my POV.  If we weren't in a COVID panic...maybe.  But I'd probably be working and wouldn't have the time.  Besides, my wife and I are due a vacation...our plans for last year were scrapped.  That was about the time I stopped working too.  I'd rather pay for a week traveling around Colorado/Arizona.  Besides, nothing shows that this would be happening if we weren't in a 'pandemic'.  Hard to say...

Edited March 24, 2021 by Galen130

[Wally's Comics]

GET BACK IN THERE AND SELL SELLLLL!!!!!

[Randall Ries]

4 minutes ago, Darkowl said:

Panic. Also a valid catalyst. I think that's what happened with Peter Panzerfaust. People so wanted it to be the next WD1. It wasn't.

If panic and desperation is what's driving up these prices, then I'm even more concerned.

It may truly be bored, rich people who want to dabble in the comic book collectibles market who don't know a damned thing about them other than what their broker told them over a coffee and bagel one morning. One thing is certain: They have money. More than the average comic book geek. And are sucking up high grade examples of nearly anything. Kind of a sign of a newbie with lots of cash and no direction. Perhaps having their financial advisors tracking values of books over the last 10 years and buying books with the most "earning potential". Man. They are in for a surprise later on.

Or maybe it's rich people trying to launder their money or hide it from the IRS. A gigantic tax bill will be on the horizon for us. I doubt like crazy the wealthy are going to get supertaxed. That just doesn't happen. They SAY it will but they stick in some new loopholes to make it the same playing field again. There are so many different ways the average man can be taxed without it being a payroll thing.

[Darkowl]

5 minutes ago, Galen130 said:

I agree with the cards things as well....all those non-sport card auctions that are just nuts.  I spent five minutes realizing that I have some of those cards, i.e. 1992 Marvel Masterpieces, but decided it wasn't worth acting on.  Can't afford to send them in, don't have a feebay account anymore, can't sell other grading companies products in CGC threads, etc.  I'm trying to survive here...can't afford the risk.  Besides, way to much scamming and manipulation out there because there are more people sitting at home not doing anything that will fall for stuff like this.  As far as I'm concerned, it's a losing proposition...from my POV.  If we weren't in a COVID panic...maybe.  But I'd probably be working and wouldn't have the time.  Besides, my wife and I are due a vacation...our plans for last year were scrapped.  That was about the time I stopped working too.  I'd rather pay for a week traveling around Colorado/Arizona.  Besides, nothing shows that this would be happening if we weren't in a 'pandemic'.  Hard to say...

So the Marvel trading cards are worth money now too? Wow. That does sound like desperation! 

Edited March 24, 2021 by Darkowl

[Randall Ries]

2 minutes ago, Wally's Comics said:

GET BACK IN THERE AND SELL SELLLLL!!!!!

 

[Darkowl]

2 minutes ago, Randall Ries said:

It may truly be bored, rich people who want to dabble in the comic book collectibles market who don't know a damned thing about them other than what their broker told them over a coffee and bagel one morning. One thing is certain: They have money. More than the average comic book geek. And are sucking up high grade examples of nearly anything. Kind of a sign of a newbie with lots of cash and no direction. Perhaps having their financial advisors tracking values of books over the last 10 years and buying books with the most "earning potential". Man. They are in for a surprise later on.

Or maybe it's rich people trying to launder their money or hide it from the IRS. A gigantic tax bill will be on the horizon for us. I doubt like crazy the wealthy are going to get supertaxed. That just doesn't happen. They SAY it will but they stick in some new loopholes to make it the same playing field again. There are so many different ways the average man can be taxed without it being a payroll thing.

If it's bored, rich people, I'm genuinely curious as to how they made their way over here. But like you said, could have been as simple as some small talk over a coffee and bagel.

 News travels pretty fast, I guess.

[Randall Ries]

7 minutes ago, Galen130 said:

I agree with the cards thing as well....all those non-sport card auctions that are just nuts.  I spent five minutes realizing that I have some of those cards, i.e. 1992 Marvel Masterpieces, but decided it wasn't worth acting on.  Can't afford to send them in, don't have a feebay account anymore, can't sell other grading companies products in CGC threads, etc.  I'm trying to survive here...can't afford the risk.  Besides, way to much scamming and manipulation out there because there are more people sitting at home not doing anything that will fall for stuff like this.  As far as I'm concerned, it's a losing proposition...from my POV.  If we weren't in a COVID panic...maybe.  But I'd probably be working and wouldn't have the time.  Besides, my wife and I are due a vacation...our plans for last year were scrapped.  That was about the time I stopped working too.  I'd rather pay for a week traveling around Colorado/Arizona.  Besides, nothing shows that this would be happening if we weren't in a 'pandemic'.  Hard to say...

I don't take spend on a vacation. Not that they are bad, but there's no return on the money I would spend. Just gone. I can hike in the woods around here and look for my archaeological sites for free. I really have to think about what I'm doing with money. We buy ourselves a present once in awhile but it has to be something with value. Like I might buy a comic book. Some book that I love but is also worth the money I spend on it.

I don't think this would all be going down if not for COVID.