The Great Collectibles Bubble: Waiting To Pop? 1 1

[Randall Ries]

1 hour ago, Darkowl said:

What’s really odd is the high amount of people (including myself) who didn’t take into consideration the up/down nature of real estate. It was like everyone thought it was somehow invincible. Why were we all so convinced of its sustainability? 

Because a lot of people were making a ton of money from it, I guess. At that time, a 6% interest rate seemed low. Seems like they were pushing low interest rates pretty hard.

I remember when it all ended. One of my clients was elderly and her goal was to have 1 million in her savings account. She had a clothing boutique in Manhattan and sold it. Retired. She saved that money and was saving more. She got to 947,000. I showed up one day and she had lost half of her savings. A lot of people got virtually cut in half.

Enron bailed out. The housing market took it in the pants. People lost their 401k's. The value of their houses. Their jobs. Their retirement savings. People who were working and trying to invest. And lost. And people laughed. "Oh I'll just buy low, now! Har har har!" Right. Criminals stole their money legally and had the nerve to laugh.

[Number 6]

Well, just a quick update:

I did go ahead and place a bid on Clink. Not aggressive, just bid what I paid for a comparable issue last month (which I thought was high). Got out bid on the last seconds, so I was the second highest bidder. 
 

I’m both relived and frankly, kind of glad. What does that say?

 

 

Just for some perspective:  

About 5 years ago I sold a 9.4 Detective Comics #403 on Clink for $137. 
 

A couple months ago I paid $200 for a 9.4 which again, I felt was kinda high, but it has been 5 years and it was a really sharp copy and I really wanted it. 
 

Tonight a 9.4 sold on Clink for $325. 
 

Not key. Not a Pedigree. Not highest graded. Just nuts. 

Edited March 25, 2021 by Number 6

[DavidTheDavid]

1 hour ago, Number 6 said:

I’m trying to figure out what to do as a collector. 
 

I’m not one of the smart collectors who also buys books with the purpose of flipping to generate funds for the books I want to keep. If I were I’d probably be digging all this right now. 
 

While I should have been diving in boxes for books to flip for the last 10 years, I always felt that was also a way to possibly get stuck with a bunch of stuff I really don’t want. 
 

I just buy books that I want to keep for the long term.  And I don’t even collect “cool” books, books that I could flip now for insane profit and (hopefully) buy again when this all settles down. 
 

“98% of the total comics available aren’t blowing up, buy those”. Yeah, but I’m trying to keep my collection lean and I’ve already got 4 short boxes of the cheap stuff, I’m good on that. 
 

I just wanted to round out my collection with some “nice” books. Not super-mega-keys.  Not kinda-sorta keys. Just nice books that before all this insanity used to sell for $100-$300, maybe as high as $500 for something really nice...but none of it really “key” in the true sense. 
 

But even that stuff is rapidly escalating to the point that when a book I want finally comes up I don’t know whether I even want to buy.  I’m really not planning on selling these books anytime soon, but man, there’s also a point where you just feel like you’re throwing money away. 
 

There’s a book on Clink that’s ending tonight and I’m seriously debating about whether I should even bother throwing in a bid. And if I do win, is that really a good thing?  Can I even feel good about my purchase?  I can’t hardly get a sense of what this stuff is really worth anymore. 
 

I was hoping to get a decent group of nice books to compliment my collection and then slow way down on adding books, but it looks like I may be too late for that. 
 

I’m seriously wondering if I should just take a break on comics for awhile, wait and hope all this dies down in a bit.  Maybe pursue another avenue of collecting...I’m not gonna say what for fear anyone gets any bright ideas. 
 

Just kinda frustrating as I really enjoy comics, I have a long history with it and, up till now, felt I had a pretty good handle on it. 
 

I’m gonna miss it...

I have my last slabbed comics for sale at ComicLink in the current auction. Nothing fancy, not even a $200 book, at least normally. I'm about 20% over where I expected to be at the auction's end.

My collection now has changed quite a bit and it's much more enjoyable for me. $50 or $100 is a big spend for me nowadays. $10 is pretty common. I read much more of what I buy. And no anxiety about ballooning costs or missed opportunities. 

[D84]

14 minutes ago, Number 6 said:

Well, just a quick update:

I did go ahead and place a bid on Clink. Not aggressive, just bid what I paid for a comparable issue last month (which I thought was high). Got out bid on the last seconds, so I was the second highest bidder. 
 

I’m both relived and frankly, kind of glad. What does that say?

 

 

Just for some perspective:  

About 5 years ago I sold a 9.4 Detective Comics #403 on Clink for $137. 
 

A couple months ago I paid $200 for a 9.4 which again, I felt was kinda high, but it has been 5 years and it was a really sharp copy and I really wanted it. 
 

Tonight a 9.4 sold on Clink for $325. 
 

Not key. Not a Pedigree. Not highest graded. Just nuts. 

I love that cover, but it's just proof that it's time to walk away.

[Randall Ries]

17 minutes ago, Number 6 said:

Well, just a quick update:

I did go ahead and place a bid on Clink. Not aggressive, just bid what I paid for a comparable issue last month (which I thought was high). Got out bid on the last seconds, so I was the second highest bidder. 
 

I’m both relived and frankly, kind of glad. What does that say?

 

 

Just for some perspective:  

About 5 years ago I sold a 9.4 Detective Comics #403 on Clink for $137. 
 

A couple months ago I paid $200 for a 9.4 which again, I felt was kinda high, but it has been 5 years and it was a really sharp copy and I really wanted it. 
 

Tonight a 9.4 sold on Clink for $325. 
 

Not key. Not a Pedigree. Not highest graded. Just nuts. 

I bid on that one a couple of times myself. Great cover. Not $325 great, though. Haaa. I quit at $150. That cover and the Knight cover are getting lots of attention lately.

[Poekaymon]

3 hours ago, THE_BEYONDER said:

Let’s go big.  Let’s say HULK 181 in 9.8 drops from its current 60k price tag to 50k. Are you buying at 50?

No, let's go bigger.  I'd be fine with buying it at the full 60, if it were within budget, because regardless of any pullbacks that may or may not happen, I am confident it'll be higher than 60 by the time I want to sell. 

I'll be honest.  A lot of the doom-and-gloomers here just sound bitter.  The stock market is also at an all-time high.  Shouldn't buy right?  Wrong.  Trying to time the market is a proven losing strategy.  Get in with stuff you believe in, whether books or stocks, and hold long term.  This is the way.

Edited March 25, 2021 by Poekaymon

[Poekaymon]

3 hours ago, Ryan. said:

🔹 🖐️ 

🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

[Randall Ries]

17 minutes ago, Poekaymon said:

No, let's go bigger.  I'd be fine with buying it at the full 60, if it were within budget, because regardless of any pullbacks that may or may not happen, I am confident it'll be higher than 60 by the time I want to sell. 

I'll be honest.  A lot of the doom-and-gloomers here just sound bitter.  The stock market is also at an all-time high.  Shouldn't buy right?  Wrong.  Trying to time the market is a proven losing strategy.  Get in with stuff you believe in, whether books or stocks, and hold long term.  This is the way.

Try not to look at it as Doom and Gloom. Look at it like someone is trying to urge caution. I don't feel bitter. There have been plenty of bubbles burst. If you feel that I'm bitter, I can say straight out that even if I HAD $60k to throw at something I wanted, it wouldn't be an IH 181. It'd be a book that was actually rare and worth $60k all by itself and not blown around by speculators, the movies and bandwagon and mob mentality. I mean to each their own, but it isn't hard to locate an IH 181.

The Stock market is always at an all time high until it isn't. It's usually at an all time high before it drops a bunch of points. Then, we can here the pucker all around the world. LOL! After people lose their shirts, someone always comes up with some reason why it was a good thing. I suck at speculating and I would be worse than useless "playing" the stock market. Any time someone mentions to me my money and am I interested in "playing" something with it, I'm out. I am greedy that way. I couldn't wake up with a newscaster in my face telling me overnight my investment is now useless and I'm out $100k.

I learned to live with nothing for a long time. It stunk. (Stank? Stinked?) What I have now is great. An appreciation for what I do have. Money isn't the end all/be all to me. I have all I need and some of what I want.

[Randall Ries]

1 hour ago, Number 6 said:

Well, just a quick update:

I did go ahead and place a bid on Clink. Not aggressive, just bid what I paid for a comparable issue last month (which I thought was high). Got out bid on the last seconds, so I was the second highest bidder. 
 

I’m both relived and frankly, kind of glad. What does that say?

 

 

Just for some perspective:  

About 5 years ago I sold a 9.4 Detective Comics #403 on Clink for $137. 
 

A couple months ago I paid $200 for a 9.4 which again, I felt was kinda high, but it has been 5 years and it was a really sharp copy and I really wanted it. 
 

Tonight a 9.4 sold on Clink for $325. 
 

Not key. Not a Pedigree. Not highest graded. Just nuts. 

Adams covers without his interiors are getting some attention recently. Here is a nice example of a raw Detective 412. $100. Compared to $425 in the same grade slabbed. Raw books look good to me right now. Even with the veiled threat of "Oh WELL! YOU don't know if it's been RESTORED or not! Boogetyboogetyboooo!"

 

[InfantTerrible]

47 minutes ago, Number 6 said:

Well, just a quick update:

I did go ahead and place a bid on Clink. Not aggressive, just bid what I paid for a comparable issue last month (which I thought was high). Got out bid on the last seconds, so I was the second highest bidder. 
 

I’m both relived and frankly, kind of glad. What does that say?

 

 

Just for some perspective:  

About 5 years ago I sold a 9.4 Detective Comics #403 on Clink for $137. 
 

A couple months ago I paid $200 for a 9.4 which again, I felt was kinda high, but it has been 5 years and it was a really sharp copy and I really wanted it. 
 

Tonight a 9.4 sold on Clink for $325. 
 

Not key. Not a Pedigree. Not highest graded. Just nuts. 

 

I got outbid to last seconds on some FF issues, it's absolutely nuts!!!

[Poekaymon]

1 hour ago, Randall Ries said:

The Stock market is always at an all time high until it isn't. It's usually at an all time high before it drops a bunch of points. Then, we can here the pucker all around the world. LOL! After people lose their shirts, someone always comes up with some reason why it was a good thing. 
 

This is a great example of the mistake people make out of fear.  Worrying that it's going to drop a bunch of points is exactly what I meant by saying that trying to time the market is a losing strategy.  In the long run, it doesn't matter if it drops a bunch of points.   

I'm probably into the ocean here, but I'll spend one paragraph trying to explain.  You might be surprised to know that even if you had somehow managed to invest at all the worst times in history, as in, right at the peak of every bubble we've ever had, and precisely the night before "you hear the pucker all around the world," you're still vastly in the money today?  To put it another way, investing at absolutely the wrong times still beats not investing at all.  This is not an opinion, it is mathematical fact.  

Also, the market isn't hard.  You don't get stuff that might disappear overnight.  You get low expense ratio index trackers like VOO and you don't even look at it to see how it's doing.  Things go up and down but the trajectory over time is not even close to flat--let alone negative.

[Darkowl]

3 hours ago, Poekaymon said:

This is a great example of the mistake people make out of fear.  Worrying that it's going to drop a bunch of points is exactly what I meant by saying that trying to time the market is a losing strategy.  In the long run, it doesn't matter if it drops a bunch of points.   

I'm probably into the ocean here, but I'll spend one paragraph trying to explain.  You might be surprised to know that even if you had somehow managed to invest at all the worst times in history, as in, right at the peak of every bubble we've ever had, and precisely the night before "you hear the pucker all around the world," you're still vastly in the money today?  To put it another way, investing at absolutely the wrong times still beats not investing at all.  This is not an opinion, it is mathematical fact.  

Also, the market isn't hard.  You don't get stuff that might disappear overnight.  You get low expense ratio index trackers like VOO and you don't even look at it to see how it's doing.  Things go up and down but the trajectory over time is not even close to flat--let alone negative.

I think the biggest problem with your logic is that you aren’t taking into consideration the amount of time that it might take for something to recover...if you’re lucky enough for it to recover.

But what if you invested in a company that ended up going out of business, or a product that completely failed?  If there’s no comeback, there’s no returns. Your money is gone. POOF! You’ll be waiting forever to see those kinds of returns. 

But what about investments that have returned from the grave?

Everyone knows that real estate goes up and down, and there’s a proven track record for it. Ironically, no one saw the 2008 crash coming, but by your logic, people would be just fine today if they had held onto their property, because we’re now at a high (was it worth the wait?)

Unfortunately, the reality of it is that people couldn’t afford to hang onto their property. A lot of people had to file bankruptcy. A lot of people had to go on unemployment. And a lot of people had to sell their belongings to put food on the table. Thousands of people who had construction businesses went belly up, and a lot of those people who were in their 50’s/60’s went back to school to pursue something in the healthcare field in hopes of getting a much safer career. Try telling them that they were better off to invest right before the crash than to never have invested at all. 

Or what about gold? I invested in gold back in 2011. I believe it was $1500 an ounce back then. It did go up, and then it came back down. And look where it has been sitting all this time. It hasn’t moved much, and It’s at $1700 an ounce now. All I can say is that even though I sold it and lost a couple of hundred dollars, I’m glad that I did sell it, because I was able to use the money for something more meaningful, instead of waiting around until i hopefully broke even. 

The harsh reality of it is that those “mathematical facts” aren’t as cut and dry as you’re trying to make it. There’s a lot of variables you’ve left out. That’s the reality. It’s not that your math is necessarily wrong. It’s that it only applies to certain situations/investments.

However, not all investments are created equal, and even the ones that look as solid as a rock have proven to fall so hard that it takes years for them to recover...if they recover. You have to be willing to risk that it may never recover, or be willing to wait long enough for it to recover. 

And no, I’m not bitter. I’ve made thousands and thousands of dollars investing in comics. Don’t believe me? Take a look at my kudos thread on here and you’ll see the amount of transactions I’ve done...and that’s just on these boards! (Not to mention that I was one of the lucky ones who originally bought the WD1 for $3 when it first hit the stands, and ended up selling it for 3K shortly after it came back from CGC at 9.8)

 I know you’d like to think that it’s bitterness simply because I disagree with you. But it’s not bitterness. It’s cautiousness. It’s reluctance. It’s knowing that it may be a bad idea to buy not only during a seller’s market, but buying during a time when prices are so remarkably unpredictable that it’s difficult to determine the real worth of something. Prices are rapidly trending up with no real meaning. It looks incredibly unhealthy from where I’m standing. 

Bitterness? No. Not at all. Reluctance is more like it.

Like I said, my crystal ball is missing. For all I know H181 will go up, and up, and up for all eternity.

But I think I’d rather listen to my instincts on this one.

Edited March 25, 2021 by Darkowl

[Shrevvy]

9 hours ago, Number 6 said:

Well, just a quick update:

I did go ahead and place a bid on Clink. Not aggressive, just bid what I paid for a comparable issue last month (which I thought was high). Got out bid on the last seconds, so I was the second highest bidder. 
 

I’m both relived and frankly, kind of glad. What does that say?

 

 

Just for some perspective:  

About 5 years ago I sold a 9.4 Detective Comics #403 on Clink for $137. 
 

A couple months ago I paid $200 for a 9.4 which again, I felt was kinda high, but it has been 5 years and it was a really sharp copy and I really wanted it. 
 

Tonight a 9.4 sold on Clink for $325. 
 

Not key. Not a Pedigree. Not highest graded. Just nuts. 

I had a tracking bid on that book. It's been a $200 book in GPA for a few years. I always thought Batman #227 was nuts, but it has been a strong book. Neal Adams Batman covers from this period are great. Several of them will ultimately become minor keys in a slabbed comic world. I don't think Batman #227 is the best Neal Adams cover of the era. Whether it is Detective 403 or 412 or some other Neal Adams Batman cover, some of them will break out. A Batman #227 would be near 10x the close of that Detective #403 in 9.4. Of all the craziness in recent auction prices, I don't see this Detective Comic #403 being one of them. Plenty of books from the Golden Age to Copper Age are valuable because of their cover. Since I was a kid, that Detective #403 cover has stood out to me. I am sure it has to others as well...now, I wish I didn't go to bed early and bid on the book!

[Bluemedgroup]

22 hours ago, Wally's Comics said:

It's kind of funny, I was doing an associate a favor and helped him with his collection about 5 years ago...
With a good heart I bagged a boarded all of his stuff and I told him what it was worth online, showing him the price guide.
He had an ok collection and he liked to buy #1's as a kid in the 70's. I did the tally for him and I told him that with work and fees you'd do well. He just wanted money now and I looked as just breaking even except one. So funny that he loved (and they were worn and read) most of the 1's except his biggest book. So he took my OSPG offer on the set and was thrilled to do so. I sold all of it and covered the tab except for the book he hated an never read. He said he "didn't like x-men" and it was a beautiful VF copy of GSX1 when all of his other books were VG.
 

What's OSPG?  Google says it is Overseas Security Policy Group: OSPG: Operation Support Group Prototype

[oldmilwaukee6er]

I'm reading through the thread now. Obviously I think we're ina bubble with some clear signs that the Modern era is coming to an end- Coronavirus and DCs split with Diamond being two big ones. Shops closing. Maybe Bad Idea contributes like Valiant / Acclaim of old. 

I'm completely content to just buy my new books off the rack. No back issues. No eBay. I've actually had more fun researching pink sheet cannabis stocks and Etherium / NFTs the last month than keeping up with comic prices. 

[Number 6]

2 hours ago, Shrevvy said:

I had a tracking bid on that book. It's been a $200 book in GPA for a few years. I always thought Batman #227 was nuts, but it has been a strong book. Neal Adams Batman covers from this period are great. Several of them will ultimately become minor keys in a slabbed comic world. I don't think Batman #227 is the best Neal Adams cover of the era. Whether it is Detective 403 or 412 or some other Neal Adams Batman cover, some of them will break out. A Batman #227 would be near 10x the close of that Detective #403 in 9.4. Of all the craziness in recent auction prices, I don't see this Detective Comic #403 being one of them. Plenty of books from the Golden Age to Copper Age are valuable because of their cover. Since I was a kid, that Detective #403 cover has stood out to me. I am sure it has to others as well...now, I wish I didn't go to bed early and bid on the book!

I agree that when it comes to this market, that Detective #403 is certainly one of the less egregious examples. 
 

However, we’re going to have differing views of the analysis of that sale since your definition of “key” seems to be far more expansive. 
 

But as to your wish that you could have back the opportunity to bid more than what that $325 copy went for...

[KCOComics]

9 hours ago, Poekaymon said:

This is a great example of the mistake people make out of fear.  Worrying that it's going to drop a bunch of points is exactly what I meant by saying that trying to time the market is a losing strategy.  In the long run, it doesn't matter if it drops a bunch of points.   

I'm probably into the ocean here, but I'll spend one paragraph trying to explain.  You might be surprised to know that even if you had somehow managed to invest at all the worst times in history, as in, right at the peak of every bubble we've ever had, and precisely the night before "you hear the pucker all around the world," you're still vastly in the money today?  To put it another way, investing at absolutely the wrong times still beats not investing at all.  This is not an opinion, it is mathematical fact.  

Also, the market isn't hard.  You don't get stuff that might disappear overnight.  You get low expense ratio index trackers like VOO and you don't even look at it to see how it's doing.  Things go up and down but the trajectory over time is not even close to flat--let alone negative.

This is 100% right. 

Think about a 401k. A little money every month turns into a massive portfolio. Most people aren't picking stocks in their 401k, your investing in well diversified funds and the biggest advantage you have is time. There will be bumps, recessions, corrections, wild bull markets and everything in between. But with enough time, you will always win. 

Personal investing is exactly the same. Low cost, well diversified index funds and enough time in the market. I lost 40% when the pandemic struck. I didn't sell or panic. I just left it alone and now I'm up allot more. 

Individual stocks create risk. You can gamble on some if you want and I do dabble, but the bulk of my investments are in diversified low cost funds. 

The only way to lock in a loss is to sell when the markets down. Because with enough time, the market has always come back stronger than ever. 

You should also have enough cash (emergency fund) so if you lose your job and the market crashes, like what happened during the pandemic for many, you don't have to dip into your investments. 

[Randall Ries]

7 hours ago, Darkowl said:

I think the biggest problem with your logic is that you aren’t taking into consideration the amount of time that it might take for something to recover...if you’re lucky enough for it to recover.

But what if you invested in a company that ended up going out of business, or a product that completely failed?  If there’s no comeback, there’s no returns. Your money is gone. POOF! You’ll be waiting forever to see those kinds of returns. 

But what about investments that have returned from the grave?

Everyone knows that real estate goes up and down, and there’s a proven track record for it. Ironically, no one saw the 2008 crash coming, but by your logic, people would be just fine today if they had held onto their property, because we’re now at a high (was it worth the wait?)

Unfortunately, the reality of it is that people couldn’t afford to hang onto their property. A lot of people had to file bankruptcy. A lot of people had to go on unemployment. And a lot of people had to sell their belongings to put food on the table. Thousands of people who had construction businesses went belly up, and a lot of those people who were in their 50’s/60’s went back to school to pursue something in the healthcare field in hopes of getting a much safer career. Try telling them that they were better off to invest right before the crash than to never have invested at all. 

Or what about gold? I invested in gold back in 2011. I believe it was $1500 an ounce back then. It did go up, and then it came back down. And look where it has been sitting all this time. It hasn’t moved much, and It’s at $1700 an ounce now. All I can say is that even though I sold it and lost a couple of hundred dollars, I’m glad that I did sell it, because I was able to use the money for something more meaningful, instead of waiting around until i hopefully broke even. 

The harsh reality of it is that those “mathematical facts” aren’t as cut and dry as you’re trying to make it. There’s a lot of variables you’ve left out. That’s the reality. It’s not that your math is necessarily wrong. It’s that it only applies to certain situations/investments.

However, not all investments are created equal, and even the ones that look as solid as a rock have proven to fall so hard that it takes years for them to recover...if they recover. You have to be willing to risk that it may never recover, or be willing to wait long enough for it to recover. 

And no, I’m not bitter. I’ve made thousands and thousands of dollars investing in comics. Don’t believe me? Take a look at my kudos thread on here and you’ll see the amount of transactions I’ve done...and that’s just on these boards! (Not to mention that I was one of the lucky ones who originally bought the WD1 for $3 when it first hit the stands, and ended up selling it for 3K shortly after it came back from CGC at 9.8)

 I know you’d like to think that it’s bitterness simply because I disagree with you. But it’s not bitterness. It’s cautiousness. It’s reluctance. It’s knowing that it may be a bad idea to buy not only during a seller’s market, but buying during a time when prices are so remarkably unpredictable that it’s difficult to determine the real worth of something. Prices are rapidly trending up with no real meaning. It looks incredibly unhealthy from where I’m standing. 

Bitterness? No. Not at all. Reluctance is more like it.

Like I said, my crystal ball is missing. For all I know H181 will go up, and up, and up for all eternity.

But I think I’d rather listen to my instincts on this one.

Well done! What I was feebly trying to say.

There seems to be two different types of investors: One who earns a paycheck every week and the other who had money given to them by Moomers and Pop-Pop. I can't swing a dead cat by its tail without hitting some guy who tells me he is self made. When the truth is he either had money and savings handed to him by his parents or he married wealthy. The true self made man is rare. There is ALWAYS some form of undisclosed advantage people had to see success to the point they can shrug off several thousand dollar losses and just "hang in there".

I always think in terms of the Enron employees who were given matched donations into their 401k plan. Working guys who saw it as their retirement. Or anyone at that time where they had a good amount in their 401k. Wake up one day and during the course of that day watched their future go poof. Their future insofar as eating and paying for their medical stuff as they aged. I'm not naive enough to assume the world is fair. Just that when that happened to millions of people, there were people running around gleefully snickering "Now I'll just buy low! CACKLE!"

I took great care one afternoon pointing out to some 70-ish "self made" braggart on a golf course that I knew he had married into money when he was a young man. His wifes father had the money. Not him. SO, don't get cocky at this point in your life. "Luck" had nothing to do with it. Neither did "hard work". Or "skill".

Nah. There are still plenty of us who may be able to invest to a degree but the first big hit would wipe us out. We can't afford to diversify for one reason or another. A lot of people have to put their money on black and cross their fingers. I would be one of them. It's easy enough when my accountant is a financial advisor as well to say "This is safe!" Everyone thought 401k was safe. They lost everything.

[KCOComics]

7 hours ago, Darkowl said:

I think the biggest problem with your logic is that you aren’t taking into consideration the amount of time that it might take for something to recover...if you’re lucky enough for it to recover.

But what if you invested in a company that ended up going out of business, or a product that completely failed?  If there’s no comeback, there’s no returns. Your money is gone. POOF! You’ll be waiting forever to see those kinds of returns. 

But what about investments that have returned from the grave?

Everyone knows that real estate goes up and down, and there’s a proven track record for it. Ironically, no one saw the 2008 crash coming, but by your logic, people would be just fine today if they had held onto their property, because we’re now at a high (was it worth the wait?)

Unfortunately, the reality of it is that people couldn’t afford to hang onto their property. A lot of people had to file bankruptcy. A lot of people had to go on unemployment. And a lot of people had to sell their belongings to put food on the table. Thousands of people who had construction businesses went belly up, and a lot of those people who were in their 50’s/60’s went back to school to pursue something in the healthcare field in hopes of getting a much safer career. Try telling them that they were better off to invest right before the crash than to never have invested at all. 

Or what about gold? I invested in gold back in 2011. I believe it was $1500 an ounce back then. It did go up, and then it came back down. And look where it has been sitting all this time. It hasn’t moved much, and It’s at $1700 an ounce now. All I can say is that even though I sold it and lost a couple of hundred dollars, I’m glad that I did sell it, because I was able to use the money for something more meaningful, instead of waiting around until i hopefully broke even. 

The harsh reality of it is that those “mathematical facts” aren’t as cut and dry as you’re trying to make it. There’s a lot of variables you’ve left out. That’s the reality. It’s not that your math is necessarily wrong. It’s that it only applies to certain situations/investments.

However, not all investments are created equal, and even the ones that look as solid as a rock have proven to fall so hard that it takes years for them to recover...if they recover. You have to be willing to risk that it may never recover, or be willing to wait long enough for it to recover. 

And no, I’m not bitter. I’ve made thousands and thousands of dollars investing in comics. Don’t believe me? Take a look at my kudos thread on here and you’ll see the amount of transactions I’ve done...and that’s just on these boards! (Not to mention that I was one of the lucky ones who originally bought the WD1 for $3 when it first hit the stands, and ended up selling it for 3K shortly after it came back from CGC at 9.8)

 I know you’d like to think that it’s bitterness simply because I disagree with you. But it’s not bitterness. It’s cautiousness. It’s reluctance. It’s knowing that it may be a bad idea to buy not only during a seller’s market, but buying during a time when prices are so remarkably unpredictable that it’s difficult to determine the real worth of something. Prices are rapidly trending up with no real meaning. It looks incredibly unhealthy from where I’m standing. 

Bitterness? No. Not at all. Reluctance is more like it.

Like I said, my crystal ball is missing. For all I know H181 will go up, and up, and up for all eternity.

But I think I’d rather listen to my instincts on this one.

I think the math is cut and dry. The key is to be boring! 

Real estate has risk. Individual stocks have risk. Funds have risk to, but they are diversified.  In 2008 Block buster may have draged the fund down but Amazon and Netflix picked it up so everyone won in the long run. That's the key... Play the long boring game. 

Gold and silver aren't really investments. They are assets, but they aren't developed to grow like a business is.  It isn't intended to create profit margin and pay dividends. It's intended to hedge against recessions and move just ahead of inflation. 

Slow, steady and boring is the key. Not buying and selling and trying to pick winners. 

 

[Shrevvy]

3 minutes ago, Number 6 said:

I agree that when it comes to this market, that Detective #403 is certainly one of the less egregious examples. 
 

However, we’re going to have differing views of the analysis of that sale since your definition of “key” seems to be far more expansive. 
 

But as to your wish that you could have back the opportunity to bid more than what that $325 copy went for...

Whether you believe me or not, look at what is available on eBay. Look at the book instead of the grade. The 9.4 on CL with White pages and near perfect centering is a better looking copy than the 9.6s on eBay. My comment was as much tongue in cheek as anything, but if the winner wants to sell me the book send me a PM. Let's just have a friendly conversation here.

Yes, I think Batman #227 is a key book. Last 9.2 in Jan sold for $2400. Not sure many would debate that it is not a key book. Detective 403 or the covers around it are not key books now. But I don't doubt that one of the covers could be seen as a key in the future and be priced accordingly. There are hundreds of examples of this happening in golden age. No reason that collectible cover mentality does not trickle into silver, bronze and copper. It already has, just not to the extent as the golden age.