Are Bronze CGC 9.2-9.6 Prices Tanking?

[gpanalysis]

It is average sale price, so what we're doing is standardizing the value of books. If you have two sales, say $1000 and $1200 then the average sale of books is $1100 - if you have 4 sales, say $1000, $1100, $1100 and $1200 for a different quarter then the average is still $1100 - do you see how it works. And, we take out the top 10 sales so that any very high values (i.e. the peak for that quarter) is not counted in the second line so as to identify exactly what you're talking about, any values that would skew the average price paid per book. The numbers/chart give you a good idea of trend for certain groupings.

[gpanalysis]

I've redone them with the 9.2, 9.4 and 9.6 trends as individual charts. The first chart is 9.2-9.6 combined

[gpanalysis]

Bronze Age assumes 1970-1979.

 

Each graph below looks at all sales for Bronze books (9.2-9.6 grade), for each Quarter (every 3 months, starting with July 2002 and ending June 2005) and determines an average value per book (based on the total number of books sold for that quarter). To determine if there are any bumps due to extraordinary high sales, there is a second average that takes out the top sales (may vary depending on the overall quantity). The lines are represented on the graph as blue and red respectively.

 

Title: All Titles Era: Bronze Age (1970-1979) Grade Range: 9.2 to 9.6

Quarter

All Sales

Total Books Avg Value Top Sales Avg Value Q3 2002 (Jul-Sep) $371,751.55 3,558 $104.48 $30,436.01(10) $96.20 Q4 2002 (Oct-Dec) $415,021.39 3,959 $104.83 $26,856.49(10) $98.29 Q1 2003 (Jan-Mar) $425,198.24 4,153 $102.38 $26,943.88(10) $96.13 Q2 2003 (Apr-Jun) $447,516.75 4,169 $107.34 $29,063.07(10) $100.61 Q3 2003 (Jul-Sep) $464,404.29 4,227 $109.87 $41,364.34(10) $100.32 Q4 2003 (Oct-Dec) $465,529.27 3,341 $139.34 $45,340.30(10) $126.14 Q1 2004 (Jan-Mar) $423,473.29 3,095 $136.82 $28,216.89(10) $128.12 Q2 2004 (Apr-Jun) $548,351.63 3,283 $167.03 $45,565.01(10) $153.62 Q3 2004 (Jul-Sep) $695,230.99 4,518 $153.88 $43,676.72(10) $144.53 Q4 2004 (Oct-Dec) $607,505.71 4,591 $132.33 $33,456.62(10) $125.31 Q1 2005 (Jan-Mar) $675,395.91 5,199 $129.91 $38,121.52(10) $122.81 Q2 2005 (Apr-Jun) $760,315.25 6,004 $126.63 $43,465.63(10) $119.59

[gpanalysis]

 

Title: Amazing Spider-Man, The (1963) Era: Bronze Age (1970-1979) Grade Range: 9.2 to 9.6

 

 

Quarter

All Sales

Total Books

Avg Value

Top Sales

Avg Value

 

 

 

Q3 2002 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$71,227.81

665

$107.11

 

$9,019.75(10)

 

$94.97

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2002 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$82,348.43

569

$144.72

 

$13,857.50(10)

 

$122.52

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2003 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$58,897.54

456

$129.16

 

$9,441.65(10)

 

$110.89

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2003 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$63,064.11

487

$129.50

 

$12,563.82(10)

 

$105.87

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q3 2003 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$75,342.25

510

$147.73

 

$14,575.06(10)

 

$121.53

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2003 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$98,576.95

477

$206.66

 

$19,364.67(10)

 

$169.62

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2004 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$82,111.41

411

$199.78

 

$15,192.70(10)

 

$166.88

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2004 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$128,054.25

602

$212.71

 

$22,069.41(10)

 

$179.03

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q3 2004 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$125,920.22

638

$197.37

 

$17,916.99(10)

 

$171.98

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2004 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$102,521.08

571

$179.55

 

$16,665.15(10)

 

$153.04

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2005 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$123,779.37

631

$196.16

 

$19,665.07(10)

 

$167.66

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2005 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$127,256.93

608

$209.30

 

$14,798.08(10)

 

$188.06

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[gpanalysis]

 

Title: X-Men, The (1963-1981) Era: Bronze Age (1970-1979) Grade Range: 9.2 to 9.6

 

 

Quarter

All Sales

Total Books

Avg Value

Top Sales

Avg Value

 

 

 

Q3 2002 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$60,576.35

392

$154.53

 

$17,657.00(10)

 

$112.35

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2002 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$45,820.52

355

$129.07

 

$8,436.24(10)

 

$108.36

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2003 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$66,954.61

404

$165.73

 

$18,375.38(10)

 

$123.30

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2003 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$64,962.72

469

$138.51

 

$13,304.74(10)

 

$112.54

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q3 2003 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$51,270.73

278

$184.43

 

$20,194.03(10)

 

$115.96

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2003 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$60,034.95

297

$202.14

 

$23,299.02(10)

 

$128.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2004 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$37,714.91

197

$191.45

 

$12,328.73(10)

 

$135.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2004 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$57,735.51

250

$230.94

 

$20,336.49(10)

 

$155.83

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q3 2004 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$73,413.33

371

$197.88

 

$16,493.22(10)

 

$157.67

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2004 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$68,126.46

413

$164.96

 

$11,985.76(10)

 

$139.31

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2005 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$60,903.82

391

$155.76

 

$11,798.55(10)

 

$128.89

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2005 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$67,054.62

404

$165.98

 

$15,609.81(10)

 

$130.57

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[gpanalysis]

 

Title: Daredevil (1964-1998) Era: Bronze Age (1970-1979) Grade Range: 9.2 to 9.6

 

 

Quarter

All Sales

Total Books

Avg Value

Top Sales

Avg Value

 

 

 

Q3 2002 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$8,215.87

105

$78.25

 

$2,769.96(10)

 

$57.33

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2002 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$16,283.10

121

$134.57

 

$5,655.67(10)

 

$95.74

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2003 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$15,071.78

165

$91.34

 

$3,312.93(10)

 

$75.86

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2003 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$10,549.32

107

$98.59

 

$3,282.55(10)

 

$74.92

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q3 2003 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$7,922.74

117

$67.72

 

$2,016.53(10)

 

$55.20

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2003 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$7,486.94

89

$84.12

 

$2,629.99(9)

 

$60.71

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2004 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$8,281.69

82

$101.00

 

$2,436.08(9)

 

$80.08

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2004 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$11,522.12

105

$109.73

 

$3,092.08(10)

 

$88.74

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q3 2004 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$13,124.41

135

$97.22

 

$3,236.28(10)

 

$79.11

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2004 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$11,683.66

105

$111.27

 

$3,245.49(10)

 

$88.82

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2005 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$11,565.97

108

$107.09

 

$3,896.65(10)

 

$78.26

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2005 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$11,949.60

140

$85.35

 

$2,899.11(10)

 

$69.62

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[gpanalysis]

 

Title: Fantastic Four (1961) Era: Bronze Age (1970-1979) Grade Range: 9.2 to 9.6

 

 

Quarter

All Sales

Total Books

Avg Value

Top Sales

Avg Value

 

 

 

Q3 2002 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$6,673.09

103

$64.79

 

$2,407.74(10)

 

$45.86

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2002 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$10,531.23

181

$58.18

 

$2,576.90(10)

 

$46.52

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2003 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$10,400.57

152

$68.42

 

$2,852.02(10)

 

$53.16

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2003 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$8,331.62

115

$72.45

 

$2,217.59(10)

 

$58.23

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q3 2003 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$7,038.94

87

$80.91

 

$2,426.85(9)

 

$59.13

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2003 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$11,121.64

125

$88.97

 

$3,248.44(10)

 

$68.46

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2004 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$8,085.03

83

$97.41

 

$2,860.49(9)

 

$70.60

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2004 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$6,770.11

93

$72.80

 

$2,088.89(10)

 

$56.40

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q3 2004 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$13,077.22

153

$85.47

 

$3,608.44(10)

 

$66.22

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2004 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$15,228.03

234

$65.08

 

$2,571.21(10)

 

$56.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2005 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$11,112.58

130

$85.48

 

$3,965.55(10)

 

$59.56

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2005 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$21,690.42

208

$104.28

 

$5,803.02(10)

 

$80.24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[gpanalysis]

 

Title: Batman (1940) Era: Bronze Age (1970-1979) Grade Range: 9.2 to 9.6

 

 

Quarter

All Sales

Total Books

Avg Value

Top Sales

Avg Value

 

 

 

Q3 2002 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$3,405.18

43

$79.19

 

$1,303.77(5)

 

$55.30

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2002 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$4,267.10

38

$112.29

 

$1,444.50(4)

 

$83.02

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2003 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$5,803.48

34

$170.69

 

$1,939.99(4)

 

$128.78

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2003 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$3,280.69

27

$121.51

 

$1,097.95(3)

 

$90.95

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q3 2003 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$5,274.37

38

$138.80

 

$1,587.00(4)

 

$108.45

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2003 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$6,417.32

38

$168.88

 

$1,665.44(4)

 

$139.76

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2004 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$8,277.62

34

$243.46

 

$2,953.75(4)

 

$177.46

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2004 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$8,615.72

35

$246.16

 

$2,920.77(4)

 

$183.71

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q3 2004 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$3,196.30

15

$213.09

 

$1,145.00(2)

 

$157.79

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2004 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$11,770.60

40

$294.27

 

$3,768.76(4)

 

$222.27

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2005 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$11,833.42

58

$204.02

 

$4,805.39(6)

 

$135.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2005 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$20,536.04

88

$233.36

 

$7,088.27(9)

 

$170.22

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[gpanalysis]

 

Title: Incredible Hulk, The (1962-1999) Era: Bronze Age (1970-1979) Grade Range: 9.2 to 9.6

 

 

Quarter

All Sales

Total Books

Avg Value

Top Sales

Avg Value

 

 

 

Q3 2002 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$54,571.95

110

$496.11

 

$24,217.01(10)

 

$303.55

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2002 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$46,594.53

143

$325.84

 

$23,903.38(10)

 

$170.61

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2003 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$47,799.35

160

$298.75

 

$23,252.54(10)

 

$163.65

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2003 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$62,442.52

179

$348.84

 

$25,521.00(10)

 

$218.47

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q3 2003 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$55,323.48

156

$354.64

 

$26,139.98(10)

 

$199.89

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2003 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$75,657.15

113

$669.53

 

$36,484.30(10)

 

$380.32

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2004 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$49,966.63

102

$489.87

 

$21,942.99(10)

 

$304.60

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2004 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$61,328.47

112

$547.58

 

$30,923.49(10)

 

$298.09

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q3 2004 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$97,677.03

134

$728.93

 

$42,725.50(10)

 

$443.16

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2004 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$60,501.39

111

$545.06

 

$23,270.99(10)

 

$368.62

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2005 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$74,997.04

138

$543.46

 

$31,084.99(10)

 

$343.06

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2005 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$87,206.33

139

$627.38

 

$40,665.57(10)

 

$360.78

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[gpanalysis]

 

Title: Avengers, The (1963) Era: Bronze Age (1970-1979) Grade Range: 9.2 to 9.6

 

 

Quarter

All Sales

Total Books

Avg Value

Top Sales

Avg Value

 

 

 

Q3 2002 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$5,786.99

121

$47.83

 

$1,458.18(10)

 

$39.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2002 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$6,757.23

89

$75.92

 

$1,770.63(9)

 

$62.33

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2003 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$6,920.76

93

$74.42

 

$2,379.34(10)

 

$54.72

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2003 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$8,719.67

108

$80.74

 

$2,821.27(10)

 

$60.19

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q3 2003 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$12,543.98

122

$102.82

 

$3,107.62(10)

 

$84.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2003 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$7,575.32

93

$81.46

 

$2,866.99(10)

 

$56.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2004 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$6,447.04

74

$87.12

 

$2,069.41(8)

 

$66.33

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2004 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$7,946.69

98

$81.09

 

$2,952.93(10)

 

$56.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q3 2004 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$10,300.09

102

$100.98

 

$2,977.79(10)

 

$79.59

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2004 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$8,498.78

97

$87.62

 

$2,331.71(10)

 

$70.89

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2005 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$19,373.02

231

$83.87

 

$4,214.99(10)

 

$68.59

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2005 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$11,009.00

175

$62.91

 

$2,553.01(10)

 

$51.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[gpanalysis]

 

Title: Detective Comics (1937) Era: Bronze Age (1970-1979) Grade Range: 9.2 to 9.6

 

 

Quarter

All Sales

Total Books

Avg Value

Top Sales

Avg Value

 

 

 

Q3 2002 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$2,751.38

44

$62.53

 

$1,104.51(5)

 

$42.23

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2002 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$1,915.94

36

$53.22

 

$578.48(4)

 

$41.80

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2003 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$2,736.41

45

$60.81

 

$875.84(5)

 

$46.51

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2003 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$4,526.71

57

$79.42

 

$1,433.77(6)

 

$60.65

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q3 2003 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$4,148.70

53

$78.28

 

$1,235.27(6)

 

$61.99

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2003 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$1,569.86

14

$112.13

 

$404.50(2)

 

$97.11

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2004 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$5,430.68

45

$120.68

 

$1,556.54(5)

 

$96.85

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2004 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$4,260.53

21

$202.88

 

$2,688.25(3)

 

$87.35

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q3 2004 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$3,683.64

40

$92.09

 

$1,329.61(4)

 

$65.39

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2004 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$4,290.41

45

$95.34

 

$1,460.21(5)

 

$70.76

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2005 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$7,564.71

78

$96.98

 

$2,062.68(8)

 

$78.60

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2005 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$5,952.42

57

$104.43

 

$1,844.99(6)

 

$80.54

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[drbanner]

Interesting numbers and graphs, but it is a little tough to decipher without looking at specific books. At one point you mentioned compiling a sort of index, with tracked values over time for specific books in specific grades - any progress on that?

 

Looks like DC is kicking Marvels arse, and that's without including the ultra-hot horror genre!!

 

As far as staying power for DC horror, those books are collected by both fans of horror and art-fans (Adams, Wrightson, Kaluta come to mind) and even after Sterl and the "two reds" get their runs, there will be collectors out there for these rarities. I've been collecting them for close to ten years now, and top copies are so tough to find that it will only take a couple hard-core collectors to push prices through the roof.

 

With the mind-boggling prices those Rosa horror books have brought, there's now an undeniable incentive ($) for people to get them slabbed, so I believe we're about to find out that late silver/early bronze DC's are truly much rarer than Marvels. The relative scarcity of Marvels vs. DC has been debated on these boards for years, but all the DC collectors know the answer to that debate without having to look at census numbers...

[gpanalysis]

Interesting numbers and graphs, but it is a little tough to decipher without looking at specific books. At one point you mentioned compiling a sort of index, with tracked values over time for specific books in specific grades - any progress on that?

 

The problem with looking at an Index is that the books you want to look at are not all regularly traded - in this case we thought we could look at including all books where there was at least 1 trade every month over the period where quarterly trends are being analyzed. At this stage, those books are:

 

Amazing Spider-Man (1999-2003) #36 CGC 9.6

Amazing Spider-Man, The (1963) #129 CGC 9

Amazing Spider-Man, The (1963) #200 CGC 9.6

Amazing Spider-Man, The (1963) #252 CGC 9.4

Amazing Spider-Man, The (1963) #300 CGC 9.6

Amazing Spider-Man, The (1963) #300 CGC 9.4

Amazing Spider-Man, The (1963) #300 CGC 9.2

Amazing Spider-Man, The (1963) #300 CGC 9

Avengers, The (Annuals) #10 CGC 9.6

Daredevil (1964-1998) #168 CGC 9.4

Daredevil (1964-1998) #181 CGC 9.6

Giant-Size X-Men (1975) #1 CGC 9.0

Incredible Hulk, The (1962-1999) #181 CGC 9.2

Incredible Hulk, The (1962-1999) #340 CGC 9.6

Marvel Super Heroes Secret Wars (1984-1985) #8 CGC 9.6

Marvel Super Heroes Secret Wars (1984-1985) #8 CGC 9.4

Spawn (1992) #1 CGC 9.8

Spectacular Spider-Man, The (1976-1998) #1 CGC 9.6

Spectacular Spider-Man, The (1976-1998) #1 CGC 9.4

Spider-Man (1990-1998) #1 CGC 9.8

Spider-Man (1990-1998) #1 CGC 9.8

Star Wars (1977-1986) #1 CGC 9.6

Ultimate Spider-Man (2000) #1 CGC 9.6

Ultimate Spider-Man (2000) #1 CGC 9.4

Ultimate Spider-Man (2000) #1 CGC 9.8

Ultimate Spider-Man (2000) #1 CGC 9.6

Ultimate Spider-Man (2000) #2 CGC 9.8

Ultimate Spider-Man (2000) #3 CGC 9.6

Ultimate Spider-Man (2000) #4 CGC 9.6

Ultimate Spider-Man (2000) #5 CGC 9.6

Ultimate Spider-Man (2000) #6 CGC 9.6

Ultimate Spider-Man (2000) #7 CGC 9.6

Ultimate Spider-Man (2000) #9 CGC 9.8

Ultimates (2002) #1 CGC 9.8

Uncanny X-Men, The (1981) #142 CGC 9.6

Uncanny X-Men, The (1981) #266 CGC 9.6

Web of Spider-Man (1985-1995) #1 CGC 9.6

Wolverine (1988) #1 CGC 9.8

Wolverine (1988) #1 CGC 9.6

Wolverine (1988) #1 CGC 9.4

Wolverine (1988) #10 CGC 9.6

Wolverine Limited Series (1982) #1 CGC 9.8

Wolverine Limited Series (1982) #1 CGC 9.6

Wolverine Limited Series (1982) #1 CGC 9.4

Wolverine Limited Series (1982) #2 CGC 9.4

Wolverine: The Origin (2001-2002) #1 CGC 9.8

Wolverine: The Origin (2001-2002) #1 CGC 9.6

Wolverine: The Origin (2001-2002) #3 CGC 9.8

X-Men, The (1963-1981) #137 CGC 9.6

X-Men, The (1963-1981) #140 CGC 9.6

X-Men, The (1963-1981) #140 CGC 9.4

X-Men, The (1963-1981) #141 CGC 9.6

 

As you can see, not representative of all eras, etc. We might look at books where there has been at least 1 trade per quarter instead to gauge some kind of "comic index".

[tth2]

George, very interesting graphs. Thanks for compiling the info.

 

My guess is that in a year's time:

 

1. the DCs will mirror the current Marvel movements (i.e., DCs are a year or so behind Marvels)

 

2. Marvel 9.6s will mirror the current 9.4 movements, while 9.8 prices will show continued upswings (i.e., the flight to quality that we have seen as collectors have gotten pickier and moved from 9.4s to 9.6s will now progress on to 9.8s, and 9.6s will drop as a result)

[gpanalysis]

 

2. Marvel 9.6s will mirror the current 9.4 movements, while 9.8 prices will show continued upswings (i.e., the flight to quality that we have seen as collectors have gotten pickier and moved from 9.4s to 9.6s will now progress on to 9.8s, and 9.6s will drop as a result)

 

Agree, especially as the census numbers fill up the 9.4 and 9.6 spots even further.

[drbanner]

As you can see, not representative of all eras, etc. We might look at books where there has been at least 1 trade per quarter instead to gauge some kind of "comic index".

 

Sounds good, and I definitely think it would be more informative to group eras/genres than to mix up silver/bronze/modern books as generally speaking, newer books typically spike in price and then settle down.

[gpanalysis]

Ok, as I suspected, even looking at books where there is at least 1 sale per quarter over the past 36 months (12 quarters), not enough books in some eras to represent all eras equally. Modern/Bronze well presented only.

[whetteon]

I see DC’s continuing to climb until next year like previously mentioned but I don’t see any long term market stability for that era. Sure the art and stories are nice but when you think of 1970’s, ultimately the majority of collectors first think of mainstream Marvel super-hero and horror titles. Why? Because Marvel books from that era better captured their reader’s imagination and when those readers become nostalgic, they won’t be seeking sweet, sweet DC’s but tantalizing Marvels. I think I’m going to be that guy who strays from the crowd and misses the boat on the DC fad in order to pick up those tanking Marvel books at some reasonable prices (finally).

[the blob]

I understand how it works and it's good for what it is. i have a degree in economics, not that it is necessary to understand this. But, if let's say, 2002 was more about 9.2s and 9.4s, whereas 2005 is more about the 9.6 market, the average value could be higher in 2005 even if 9.6ses are trading at a lower value than in 2002.

[Deucedriver]

I agree the graphs don't tell the whole story, there needs to be some individual titles tracked, but as GPA said, it is difficult to do since there are serious gaps between sales of the same title and issue in a single grade (9.6?).

 

Unless there is something outside the marketplace, some news, etc., I think we are going to see a slight downward trend as the market becomes "efficient". The high prices realized in the past year or so have to do with perceived rarity and the "new" thing - high grade CGC bronze. This short period of market inefficiency can be tracked since the beginning of CGC. We are now seeing a downtrend in some areas (Modern slabs come to mind). Now more and more of these books are being flushed out of collections affecting supply. Will we have more collectors of Bronze to push up the demand curve and affect the price? Maybe, maybe not.

 

IMHO CGC shocked the marketplace in the beginning and created some very high prices. The CGC effect tends to roll through various genres and "ages" resulting in momentary market inefficiencies, followed by stability (or efficiency for you stock fans). Who's smart enough to find the next one?

 

Best,

 

Sean