Are Bronze CGC 9.2-9.6 Prices Tanking?

[sterlingcomics]

nice graphs---what level of service do you need to be to run these numbers?

 

Mike, I only know too well what you are saying

[gpanalysis]

I agree the graphs don't tell the whole story, there needs to be some individual titles tracked, but as GPA said, it is difficult to do since there are serious gaps between sales of the same title and issue in a single grade (9.6?).

 

Sean, you can look obviously look at individual books by searching and analyzing these within our service.

 

edit note:

 

 

I'm re-running the figures and will update in a moment

[gpanalysis]

nice graphs---what level of service do you need to be to run these numbers?

 

Mike, I only know too well what you are saying

 

Hi Sterling, this level of analysis is not available through GPA yet.

[Deucedriver]

GP - I have, I love the service. The problem is the amount of time between sales of the individual comics, not the reporting. A book like Incredible Hulk 181 sells so much you can see some clear trend lines. Lesser issues and titles are more difficult since it may have been a months, a year or more since the last sale.

 

Also, when the individual sales are so far apart, you don't know all the variables that affected the sale, especially on E-bay. Was the description poor, did the seller have low feedback, did the auction run at a poor time, etc.

 

Anyway, thanks for the nice graphs! Your service is outstanding.

 

Sean

[sterlingcomics]

nice graphs---what level of service do you need to be to run these numbers?

 

Mike, I only know too well what you are saying

 

Hi Sterling, this level of analysis is not available through GPA yet.

 

Will it? Or is this just your toy?

[gpanalysis]

Ok, re-running the figures there are actually almost 600 individual comics that are traded at least once every quarter (the guys here pointed out to me that with the index I was looking for atleast 1 sale at the beginning of each quarter, instead of at any time within the quarter - ). So this would give a better set of data to form an index. And although I haven't taken a close look yet, there should be a nice cross section there to do an index on silver, bronze, etc.

[gpanalysis]

GP - I have, I love the service. The problem is the amount of time between sales of the individual comics, not the reporting. A book like Incredible Hulk 181 sells so much you can see some clear trend lines. Lesser issues and titles are more difficult since it may have been a months, a year or more since the last sale.

 

Also, when the individual sales are so far apart, you don't know all the variables that affected the sale, especially on E-bay. Was the description poor, did the seller have low feedback, did the auction run at a poor time, etc.

 

Anyway, thanks for the nice graphs! Your service is outstanding.

 

Sean

 

Hi Sean, thanks for the kind words. I agree that trying to gauge trends out of a handful of prices over 36 months is not very valuable. And hence why the tool I am looking at here only looks at regular sales.

 

With respects to the variables you raise above - agree with you again; although we do scrutinize individual sales when the final price is above/below a certain average cut-off, and in some instances make note within the analysis and do not include in the average price.

[gpanalysis]

nice graphs---what level of service do you need to be to run these numbers?

 

Mike, I only know too well what you are saying

 

Hi Sterling, this level of analysis is not available through GPA yet.

 

Will it? Or is this just your toy?

 

My toy at the moment I'm playing with it to see if we can release it as a tool for subscribers.

[sterlingcomics]

My toy at the moment I'm playing with it to see if we can release it as a tool for subscribers.

 

Yeah, it would have to be cached query results (data warehouse)--otherwise your servers would meltdown

[gpanalysis]

My toy at the moment I'm playing with it to see if we can release it as a tool for subscribers.

 

Yeah, it would have to be cached query results (data warehouse)--otherwise your servers would meltdown

 

Not really - other than running something like a "market index", all the other results are taking around 2-10 seconds, and that's with non-indexed database tables.

[gpanalysis]

[tth2]

George, it'd be helpful if information for the Y axis (i.e., the time periods) could be set out in the graph.

 

Great stuff, and very interesting. It also makes me wonder how many of your index constituents are BA books, since the composite graph seems to most clearly mirror the BA graph. My guess would be that a majority of the transactions are BA? If so, not surprising.

 

Of course, the data needs to be read in context, particularly the SA graph. If the index movements are based on books that are commonly transacted, then the downward trend is not surprising because by definition the index is based on relatively common books which are probably getting more common every quarter.

[sterlingcomics]

My toy at the moment I'm playing with it to see if we can release it as a tool for subscribers.

 

Yeah, it would have to be cached query results (data warehouse)--otherwise your servers would meltdown

 

Not really - other than running something like a "market index", all the other results are taking around 2-10 seconds, and that's with non-indexed database tables.

 

DB must not be that big then, or you have enough memory to reduce disk hits. Outstanding. I'll stop playing computer geek and go back to being a comic geek.

[gpanalysis]

George, it'd be helpful if information for the Y axis (i.e., the time periods) could be set out in the graph.

 

Refresh your browser and you should see the updated charts with labels on both axes.

 

Great stuff, and very interesting. It also makes me wonder how many of your index constituents are BA books, since the composite graph seems to most clearly mirror the BA graph. My guess would be that a majority of the transactions are BA? If so, not surprising.

 

See below for tables of value/volume for each chart.

 

Of course, the data needs to be read in context, particularly the SA graph. If the index movements are based on books that are commonly transacted, then the downward trend is not surprising because by definition the index is based on relatively common books which are probably getting more common every quarter.

 

The data represents books that are traded at least once every quarter, for a total of 12 consecutive quarters.

[gpanalysis]

My toy at the moment I'm playing with it to see if we can release it as a tool for subscribers.

 

Yeah, it would have to be cached query results (data warehouse)--otherwise your servers would meltdown

 

Not really - other than running something like a "market index", all the other results are taking around 2-10 seconds, and that's with non-indexed database tables.

 

DB must not be that big then, or you have enough memory to reduce disk hits. Outstanding. I'll stop playing computer geek and go back to being a comic geek.

 

IBM server farm with a lot of RAM.

[gpanalysis]

 

GPA Silver Index

 

 

Quarter

All Sales

Total Books

Avg Value

Top Sales

Avg Value

 

 

 

Q3 2002 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$73,689.79

223

$330.45

 

$15,616.26(10)

 

$272.65

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2002 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$78,102.66

224

$348.67

 

$18,228.50(10)

 

$279.79

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2003 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$81,444.88

225

$361.98

 

$17,341.50(10)

 

$298.16

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2003 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$78,879.72

207

$381.06

 

$16,727.88(10)

 

$315.49

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q3 2003 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$77,537.41

204

$380.09

 

$16,545.01(10)

 

$314.39

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2003 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$76,954.06

195

$394.64

 

$19,891.00(10)

 

$308.45

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2004 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$84,384.60

208

$405.70

 

$19,418.27(10)

 

$328.11

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2004 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$71,067.41

165

$430.71

 

$22,875.09(10)

 

$310.92

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q3 2004 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$69,519.06

172

$404.18

 

$17,565.81(10)

 

$320.70

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2004 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$62,155.44

153

$406.24

 

$19,327.33(10)

 

$299.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2005 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$81,065.96

169

$479.68

 

$25,694.68(10)

 

$348.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2005 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$82,137.11

193

$425.58

 

$19,440.07(10)

 

$342.61

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[gpanalysis]

 

GPA Bronze Index

 

 

Quarter

All Sales

Total Books

Avg Value

Top Sales

Avg Value

 

 

 

Q3 2002 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$192,448.00

868

$221.71

 

$21,301.99(10)

 

$199.47

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2002 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$186,429.81

934

$199.60

 

$20,010.38(10)

 

$180.11

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2003 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$210,970.23

994

$212.24

 

$23,350.95(10)

 

$190.67

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2003 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$276,318.06

1,121

$246.49

 

$24,219.99(10)

 

$226.91

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q3 2003 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$212,348.76

806

$263.46

 

$22,064.98(10)

 

$239.05

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2003 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$225,963.60

830

$272.25

 

$22,246.27(10)

 

$248.44

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2004 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$227,889.03

740

$307.96

 

$24,500.87(10)

 

$278.61

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2004 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$256,467.71

858

$298.91

 

$22,306.39(10)

 

$276.13

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q3 2004 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$254,032.11

976

$260.28

 

$20,901.87(10)

 

$241.34

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2004 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$230,020.16

897

$256.43

 

$21,518.68(10)

 

$235.06

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2005 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$255,689.67

900

$284.10

 

$24,670.98(10)

 

$259.57

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2005 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$232,985.86

910

$256.03

 

$20,202.80(10)

 

$236.43

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[gpanalysis]

 

GPA Copper Index

 

 

Quarter

All Sales

Total Books

Avg Value

Top Sales

Avg Value

 

 

 

Q3 2002 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$85,273.99

1,457

$58.53

 

$4,472.25(10)

 

$55.84

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2002 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$83,159.52

1,580

$52.63

 

$3,572.02(10)

 

$50.69

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2003 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$105,082.62

1,854

$56.68

 

$3,923.01(10)

 

$54.86

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2003 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$102,195.29

1,775

$57.57

 

$4,036.52(10)

 

$55.61

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q3 2003 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$85,217.27

1,361

$62.61

 

$3,617.93(10)

 

$60.40

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2003 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$73,529.42

1,157

$63.55

 

$6,868.12(10)

 

$58.12

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2004 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$86,146.11

1,320

$65.26

 

$5,033.76(10)

 

$61.92

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2004 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$83,464.87

1,238

$67.42

 

$4,907.42(10)

 

$63.97

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q3 2004 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$124,965.83

1,711

$73.04

 

$8,042.50(10)

 

$68.74

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2004 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$101,295.31

1,598

$63.39

 

$6,087.69(10)

 

$59.95

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2005 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$107,701.96

1,680

$64.11

 

$6,446.31(10)

 

$60.63

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2005 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$99,553.13

1,593

$62.49

 

$5,824.81(10)

 

$59.21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[gpanalysis]

 

GPA Modern Index

 

 

Quarter

All Sales

Total Books

Avg Value

Top Sales

Avg Value

 

 

 

Q3 2002 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$83,718.89

1,643

$50.95

 

$4,387.92(10)

 

$48.58

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2002 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$65,754.53

1,217

$54.03

 

$4,670.00(10)

 

$50.61

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2003 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$69,881.27

1,069

$65.37

 

$6,768.99(10)

 

$59.60

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2003 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$61,321.93

898

$68.29

 

$5,848.13(10)

 

$62.47

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q3 2003 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$60,112.74

680

$88.40

 

$8,163.00(10)

 

$77.54

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2003 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$52,360.07

585

$89.50

 

$8,910.85(10)

 

$75.56

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2004 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$56,166.18

661

$84.97

 

$9,228.68(10)

 

$72.10

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2004 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$61,712.71

652

$94.65

 

$10,911.60(10)

 

$79.13

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q3 2004 (Jul-Sep)

 

 

$64,963.89

609

$106.67

 

$11,975.56(10)

 

$88.46

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2004 (Oct-Dec)

 

 

$51,549.59

545

$94.59

 

$10,174.01(10)

 

$77.34

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q1 2005 (Jan-Mar)

 

 

$42,600.85

480

$88.75

 

$7,867.92(10)

 

$73.90

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 2005 (Apr-Jun)

 

 

$46,689.23

508

$91.91

 

$9,140.83(10)

 

$75.40

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[drbanner]

Very nice George!!

 

One obvious question - how many unique books in each of these groups?

 

While there's a collectible for every collector, I'm pleased to see the decline in the number of moderns/manufactured "collectibles".