They're Still Out There! 22 22

[Funnybooks]

12 minutes ago, tth2 said:

Thanks for the quick verification.

What would be interesting to know is why is he (I'm assuming it's a he) suddenly willing to open the purse strings like never before?

In an effort to maintain some anonymity, I can say that like many of us, some people carry their heart in their head and some carry their head in their heart. PL17 is a grail book. The underbidder was the aforementioned winner of the other "big" PL's. This confirms your theory at least as far as the PL's are confirmed. It was a battle of two long time collectors and not new, outside the hobby money.  

 

[Mmehdy]

42 minutes ago, tth2 said:

There's been a lot of speculation that the money coming into the hobby is financial speculators, but based on this auction I don't think it's purely financial speculators.  

If the money was only going into the most high profile books that have transcended the hobby and become acceptable alternative investments for financial diversification, such as Action 1, Detective 27 and Batman 1, then there would be a stronger case that it's purely financial speculation.

But books like Phantom Lady 17, Detective 140, Captain America 74 and Marvel Spotlight 5 mean absolutely nothing outside of our hobby, so I can't see financial advisors putting their clients into such niche books.  

Similarly, it's hard to see big money that has come back into the hobby for nostalgia reasons going into these kinds of books.  Typically, the big money returnees have bought Spider-Man, X-Men and other books (mostly SA Marvel) from their youth.  So I can see the recent massive price rises in GSX 1, Hulk 181, TMNT 1, etc. coming from returnees.  

But I just can't see the proverbial collector who left the hobby after going to college targeting PL 17, LB Cole covers, etc. unless they were extremely sophisticated collectors as teenagers.

Which doesn't answer the question who the buyers are, and where all this money in the hands of relatively sophisticated GA collectors suddenly came from, but I don't think it's a bunch of cashed up newbies.    

 

32 minutes ago, Funnybooks said:

100% @tth2

I can attest that the winner of the PL 17 is not an outside speculator and is ingrained in the hobby. The other "big" PL's all now reside in the collection of a prominent collector very much connected with CgC and Heritage.

There were a number of "silent on the board" long time GA collectors who bid, one who bid on 20, that came out for the first time, in a long time to bid away. There was a lot of "old time" money on the line here. Those older TCBC's know what is at stake. a 9.6 GA book, let alone a Timely is a once in a lifetime opportunity in the GA collecting world and 9.8 is close to impossible. I agree we will see some under graded  and newly graded copies of these books hit the market for the first time. They will be coming from non-graded whale collections. Those books purchased by them will be in a collection for a  long time ago in a collecting world far far away. I would say a very large number of Promise books are NOW gone...forever...from this sale or  for a mimnimum of 20 years at least. This was not crypto money going crazy...you can leave that to MS8...no this is getting into completion with real GA collectors, who not for the last 1 or 2 or 5 years have just gotten into GA comic book collecting, but have "been there and done that for many many years. The good news today is that a few of them will not wait for some late one or two hour auction time today. It seems that my 3 fellow collector friend for over the last 20 years, 30 etc have been lighting up my phone on a daily basis about this collection, and I know of one that was on the fence, until he saw the video with ED and those Promise books on the table and man he was all in after that. The collectors I am taking about do not a give a hoot about resale, flipping or whatever. They are after the GA book in unobtainable condition.

 I hope everyone today, those who post and those read good luck and hopefully a few of these books will end up in your collection for a long long time.

Edited June 19, 2021 by Mmehdy

[jimjum12]

2 minutes ago, Funnybooks said:

In an effort to maintain some anonymity, I can say that like many of us, some people carry their heart in their head and some carry their head in their heart. PL17 is a grail book. The underbidder was the aforementioned winner of the other "big" PL's. This confirms your theory at least as far as the PL's are confirmed. It was a battle of two long time collectors and not new, outside the hobby money.  

 

And let's face it.... late 40's FOX books just don't typically exist in this level of preservation .... if you have two homes, a retirement fund, and 50 mill in the Bank... AND you love esoteric GA books, what's a couple of million ?... you'll make that back in interest before you cash in your chips. GOD BLESS...

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

[Funnybooks]

1 minute ago, szav said:

I know one unsophisticated collector as a child of pretty much nothing but TMNTs, Iron Mans, and New Mutants who after his 20 year post college collecting break basically traded it all for PLs, Bakers, and girly FH.  He's basically an unrefined slob though.

check, check and check...there's someone else out there like me?

[Funnybooks]

1 minute ago, szav said:

If GA comic collecting is going to survive and thrive after the first wave of sagely cantankerous old folk move onward, we'd better hope so!

I have very little worry. I've met more and more collectors in their 30's-40's that are heavy into GA. 

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

12 minutes ago, szav said:

sagely cantankerous old folk collectors move onward

WE WILL SURVIVE 

[Ricksneatstuff]

35 minutes ago, Funnybooks said:

I have very little worry. I've met more and more collectors in their 30's-40's that are heavy into GA. 

Me too and they are evangelizing. 

[jimbo_7071]

2 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

 

There were a number of "silent on the board" long time GA collectors who bid, one who bid on 20, that came out for the first time, in a long time to bid away. There was a lot of "old time" money on the line here.

Do you the high bidder on the Miss Fury #5 with the 1.5" rip on the bottom edge is a newbie? (How would you have graded that book?)

[Terry JSA]

3 hours ago, tth2 said:

There's been a lot of speculation that the money coming into the hobby is financial speculators, but based on this auction I don't think it's purely financial speculators.  

If the money was only going into the most high profile books that have transcended the hobby and become acceptable alternative investments for financial diversification, such as Action 1, Detective 27 and Batman 1, then there would be a stronger case that it's purely financial speculation.

But books like Phantom Lady 17, Detective 140, Captain America 74 and Marvel Spotlight 5 mean absolutely nothing outside of our hobby, so I can't see financial advisors putting their clients into such niche books.  

Similarly, it's hard to see big money that has come back into the hobby for nostalgia reasons going into these kinds of books.  Typically, the big money returnees have bought Spider-Man, X-Men and other books (mostly SA Marvel) from their youth.  So I can see the recent massive price rises in GSX 1, Hulk 181, TMNT 1, etc. coming from returnees.  

But I just can't see the proverbial collector who left the hobby after going to college targeting PL 17, LB Cole covers, etc. unless they were extremely sophisticated collectors as teenagers.

Which doesn't answer the question who the buyers are, and where all this money in the hands of relatively sophisticated GA collectors suddenly came from, but I don't think it's a bunch of cashed up newbies.    

I 100% agree with this! We don’t know who these people are but we can easily tell they’re in it for the hobby itself and not for financial gain. I can’t just see someone spending $456,000 on a TEC #140 for an investment, and the same goes for a PL #17, it just wouldn’t make any sense for anyone to purchase books on that scale and hope to make a profit.

[Mmehdy]

2 hours ago, jimbo_7071 said:

Do you the high bidder on the Miss Fury #5 with the 1.5" rip on the bottom edge is a newbie? (How would you have graded that book?)

I rate the book S for Super on the GA cove comic book  scale. Any GA collector should be proud to own that book and make that book a part of his or her GA comic book collection. So whoever the winner shall be hats off to him or her. As far grading the book, I really cannot tell the difference between 7.0 or 7.5 or even 8.0 with a microscope so I am gonna defer to the grader who held book in his hands and gave it the best look. I think you buy the great book here Jimbo, and use the label as a reference to what you would call acceptable within the park grading. I do not and will expect perfection from anybody, CGC or whomever. I would grade the book in my 50 plus of years of collecting around a 7.0 give or take a .5...yes it has the tear and corner wear or what ever, the rest of the book is pretty darn nice and the BC looks good to. I would say any timely collector knowing how rare they are in the first place and second looking at this amazing book would  assaid as in the famous movie Robocop where this old man on TV  is wanting some very attractive young ladies and saying "I will buy that for a dollar". Ok so the book like 4K, who cares after this sale, the book is not gonna NEVER going to come on the market again against 270P Plus Promise books at the same time with 4800 in backup mode. So when it does come back on the market after2 years or 5 years or 10/20 years it is gonna to be a very different GA collecting world, which has accepted the current prices paid at auction, had a bunch of Monday-Morning quarterbacking complaints that I should of either bought one or more...just like it is with Sf/Church buyers who were there and could have bought AT THE TIME.

 The real veteran and serious GA comic book collector know about this, yes the secret is out going out of the starting gate, but they also know where these Promise book are gonna end, so by the end of the day of this sale and this book Miss Fury 5 the main issue is , does it have a back cover, front cover, and  complete and is it verified by the CGC as pedigreed, unrestored and some grade actually relatable to the 3 party judgement call.

The bidder whom gets this book today is one word....a real winner.

PS: The auction has cracked 20M a new world record and we are still in the OA section 

Edited June 19, 2021 by Mmehdy

[Mmehdy]

I just did my daily update check on the Promise collection books, for the remaining ones, there are STILL 4 books under 1K....so for those who complain you can never afford any of them, check those out, especially the "True Crime" and" Flash" and True Crime #2 is still insanely low at $5,250 for that book.

Edited June 19, 2021 by Mmehdy

[atomised]

7 hours ago, jimbo_7071 said:

What was disappointing to me was that buyers obviously bought the labels, not the books. Even the most severely over-graded books went for high prices. For example, the Catman 29—look at the staple areas; look at the color breakage along the spine, on the tiger—sold for $48,000. That book should not have sold for more than 10K, but I guess somebody wanted the label badly.

since you're making a generalization about all buyers in the auction, I just want to raise my hand and say this does not characterize me - and I participated.  Thanks

[tth2]

1 hour ago, Terry_JSA said:

I 100% agree with this! We don’t know who these people are but we can easily tell they’re in it for the hobby itself and not for financial gain. I can’t just see someone spending $456,000 on a TEC #140 for an investment, and the same goes for a PL #17, it just wouldn’t make any sense for anyone to purchase books on that scale and hope to make a profit.

Well, that's not exactly what I'm saying.

Financial investors could overpay, but they wouldn't do it for the likes of Tec 140 or PL 17.  

[Tri-Color Brian]

I love this Mitch quote...

"You play you pay......Judgment day is coming and in your comic collecting hearts....... YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE..

It is time for "Daddy" and he is gonna give you a spanking......"

Is that day still coming, Mitch? 

Edited June 19, 2021 by Tri-ColorBrian

[Mmehdy]

49 minutes ago, Tri-ColorBrian said:

I love this Mitch quote...

"You play you pay......Judgment day is coming and in your comic collecting hearts....... YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE..

It is time for "Daddy" and he is gonna give you a spanking......"

Is that day still coming, Mitch? 

In the early days  on the boards back in I think 2011 or thereabouts, when you first came on the board, you were thrown in the "Shark Pit" and they would come double shotgun at you. So, you either sank or swim and took it and gave it back, or you ran away never to post again on the boards, but to be what I call and what majority of the people  here on the board as Watchers-see FF 13. So, I had been used to those type of attacks ever since I became a comic book collector and evolved into a TCBC as in the old days it was US against the world in terms of taking comic book collecting seriously.  The test  methods here on the boards, which I might add have mellowed over time and moderation from the mods, still exist however.

So it was a natural for me to bounce back and hit one back to show them I was not going away.

 As far as judgment day, I would not call the Promise collection that, but more of a wake up day to remind all of us GA/SA comic book collectors that anything can happen and it will happen. The older/serious long term GA collectors were lulled into thinking that was it, in terms of an OO collection over say 500 at tops 1000 books. As years went by, and SF and Church got farther and father away from reality...the possibility got dimer and dimer to fact that we are gonna have to live with the acknowledgement that that was "it". The best of best has been found, and the majority of those choice books are entombed in decades old GA comic book collections. A number of books have been sold so many times, the pedigrees have been lost over many decades and it is just another GA book in really nice shape.

 ......Until the Promise collection hit. Never in the last say 30 years have I ever seen this kind of excitement just awaiting what is in this collection and what is coming out. It is like taking a time machine back...It is not just me, over the past 2/3 weeks I have spoken or emailed many GA collectors, some asking my advice as to either buy, or what to buy or what to sell to buy Promise. But here is a big difference today, its not like we only have one "Dentist" able to buy loads of Church books or one collector to buy 1/3 of all the SF(last 1/3) before SDCC sold by Bud, Robert, and John( one of the nicest comic book dealers ever, I miss him, God rest his soul). No, Folks, this is 2021 and EVERYONE IN EVERY COUNTY has a fair shot at least one of these. If the projections are correct, this is a 50M plus collection, not 10M or 20M and there is no 50M Dentist to compete with. That is what makes it exciting. Sure there will be a number of collectors who can get 40 or 50 or even 100 and I am absolutely sure there will be collector/dealers who will buy one set for their collection and one for resale down the line to essentially sell some of them and get the ones they bought for free. But everyone, whether or a Sunday auction on an ungraded book has a shot.

It is not just me, it is all true comic book collectors who should be excited that a lot of great collections are gonna better, and for first time a lot of GA collectors can buy a pedigree book directly from the source on an even playing field. The entire collection is that way, not like SF/Church.

 Those who complain about prices, just wait toward the end of the promise collection when the last 200/300 are available, then these prices will seem like a bargain when panic and reality sets in that you are gonna get passed by this collection as it will not longer be available by direct purchase. I agree I think with ED, that this pedigree collection will have complete listings and sales histories unlike the SF/Church and that will give this collection a leg up historically down the line. If you think the really really good stuff is come back on the market anytime soon..that is not gonna happen and when it does you will complain again about high those new prices are.

 Each GA collector has to make his/her own decision as availing him/her self of the opportunity here. I can only give what Bud Plant's uses where super/great/amazing books come in and say I give this my "highest recommendation"

Edited June 19, 2021 by Mmehdy

[ThothAmon]

Cream rises. I was surprised Rick didn’t throw his weight around and DEMAND that Archie 13 be in the first promise day. It’s by far the most “key” of the Promise Archie’s I’ve seen so far. 

 

[LordRahl]

10 hours ago, Randall Dowling said:

There's a lot of talk about how these prices will affect other copies.  But either the Promise Collection is special and commands non-rational multiples of what otherwise similar copies might bring (in which case these books are not useful comps), or it's not.  After seeing the prices realized, I think it's clearly the former.

We're going to see waves of under copies come up, increasing supply for otherwise scarce books.  But I still fully expect sellers to hold up Promise prices as justifications for higher asking prices, whether it's justified or not.  I mean, why not?  Everybody knows prices on comics only go up.  

I don't understand why people keep saying this. At most you will see one under copy per book and that assumes that the people buying these are people that HAVE a lower graded copy. That's a really big assumption to make and is just as likely to be incorrect as correct, if not more so given everyone thinks there is new money pouring into the hobby. 

[VintageComics]

8 hours ago, tth2 said:

The availability of funds truly seems to be infinite. 

What a change from a decade ago when multiple auctions of fresh collections actually ran the market dry for a bit and caused a dip across the entire hobby.

7 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

Not true...some the biggest "whale" old time collectors READ the board on a daily basis. They have never posted, but they sure talk about what is being said or reported.

I remember the days when people constantly said that the boards only made up a small percentage of the discussion.

I think that stopped being true about a decade ago.

Most info travels so quickly it's everywhere in a few hours or days and this place is a central hub for the hobby, whether it's a hub of info being shared on Facebook or Facebook is sharing info that started here.

There's way more silent people here than most realize.

7 hours ago, tth2 said:

Which doesn't answer the question who the buyers are, and where all this money in the hands of relatively sophisticated GA collectors suddenly came from, but I don't think it's a bunch of cashed up newbies.   

It's all types doing the buying. You have noobs with fresh money, noobs from other hobbies, old time collectors, old time collectors with fresh money.

There's no single type of buyer that covers all of the purchases.

The two things that are universal to what's happening are economic and monetary policy and that the hobby has a huge focus on it right now.

 

[Pantodude]

1 hour ago, Mmehdy said:

In the early days  on the boards back in I think 2011 or thereabouts, when you first came on the board, you were thrown in the "Shark Pit" and they would come double shotgun at you. So, you either sank or swim and took it and gave it back, or you ran away never to post again on the boards, but to be what I call and what majority of the people  here on the board as Watchers-see FF 13. So, I had been used to those type of attacks ever since I became a comic book collector and evolved into a TCBC as in the old days it was US against the world in terms of taking comic book collecting seriously.  The test  methods here on the boards, which I might add have mellowed over time and moderation from the mods, still exist however.

So it was a natural for me to bounce back and hit one back to show them I was not going away.

 As far as judgment day, I would not call the Promise collection that, but more of a wake up day to remind all of us GA/SA comic book collectors that anything can happen and it will happen. The older/serious long term GA collectors were lulled into thinking that was it, in terms of an OO collection over say 500 at tops 1000 books. As years went by, and SF and Church got farther and father away from reality...the possibility got dimer and dimer to fact that we are gonna have to live with the acknowledgement that that was "it". The best of best has been found, and the majority of those choice books are entombed in decades old GA comic book collections. A number of books have been sold so many times, the pedigrees have been lost over many decades and it is just another GA book in really nice shape.

 ......Until the Promise collection hit. Never in the last say 30 years have I ever seen this kind of excitement just awaiting what is in this collection and what is coming out. It is like taking a time machine back...It is not just me, over the past 2/3 weeks I have spoken or emailed many GA collectors, some asking my advice as to either buy, or what to buy or what to sell to buy Promise. But here is a big difference today, its not like we only have one "Dentist" able to buy loads of Church books or one collector to buy 1/3 of all the SF(last 1/3) before SDCC sold by Bud, Robert, and John( one of the nicest comic book dealers ever, I miss him, God rest his soul). No, Folks, this is 2021 and EVERYONE IN EVERY COUNTY has a fair shot at least one of these. If the projections are correct, this is a 50M plus collection, not 10M or 20M and there is no 50M Dentist to compete with. That is what makes it exciting. Sure there will be a number of collectors who can get 40 or 50 or even 100 and I am absolutely sure there will be collector/dealers who will buy one set for their collection and one for resale down the line to essentially sell some of them and get the ones they bought for free. But everyone, whether or a Sunday auction on an ungraded book has a shot.

It is not just me, it is all true comic book collectors who should be excited that a lot of great collections are gonna better, and for first time a lot of GA collectors can buy a pedigree book directly from the source on an even playing field. The entire collection is that way, not like SF/Church.

 Those who complain about prices, just wait toward the end of the promise collection when the last 200/300 are available, then these prices will seem like a bargain when panic and reality sets in that you are gonna get passed by this collection as it will not longer be available by direct purchase. I agree I think with ED, that this pedigree collection will have complete listings and sales histories unlike the SF/Church and that will give this collection a leg up historically down the line. If you think the really really good stuff is come back on the market anytime soon..that is not gonna happen and when it does you will complain again about high those new prices are.

 Each GA collector has to make his/her own decision as availing him/her self of the opportunity here. I can only give what Bud Plant's uses where super/great/amazing books come in and say I give this my "highest recommendation"

Well, time will tell?  If the very high premium for Promise books is justified solely by the exceptional quality of the collection (I know some folks have noted exceptions), then I am optimistic, as I said before.  With Church/SF/Denver, it was all about the presumed rare quality of the books (fairest known, etc.), which withstood the test of time and resulted in a long-standing and well-earned premium. 

On the other hand, if the books in the Promise collection are generally NOT considered exceptional for the grade (unlike Church, SF, Denver, etc.), then implicitly folks are expecting the Promise story alone to carry at least some weight akin to rare quality for purposes of premium.  That is no easy task, with the exception of truly special stories like Okajima (not only a girl, but a Japanese-American one at that, collected those books WHILE interned by the U.S. government during WWII.  'Nuff said.). 

Scenario 1:

I doubt it's all or nothing here.  It could be that most of the Promise books are exceptional for the grade (ala other peds) with the story being icing on the cake.  Or it could be that most of the Promise books are good examples of the grade with the story being icing on the cake (but then you must estimate the value of that icing and how enduring that value will be).   I doubt most of the Promise books are overgraded, or else the chirping around here would be louder (right?).  Regardless, whether or not the Promise books are the highest graded (due to over-grading or b/c higher grades pre-existed the auctions), for many folks the collection presents a very unique and rare opportunity to upgrade their books.  It could take years, even decades, otherwise.  So most of the premium could be for the chance to get an upgrade now, including those books with iffy technical grades, if the book is clearly an upgrade.  Very reasonable.   

Scenario 2:

But if most of the premium is due to the Promise story, let's pause please.  While the Promise story is a nice one, it is not Okajima.  So we should query whether and to what extent  the Promise story--in and of itself--will be able to maintain a lofty premium over the long term.  This question is relevant for the non-single-highest grade books, but more so for the lower-graded Promise books that could, with some patience, be found elsewhere.  

So what's my point?  The Promise collection is a unique and rare opportunity to upgrade hard-to-find GA books, which justifies the premiums with or without the story.  But mere mortals w/o deep pockets should be extra careful.  If the book has an iffy grade and is not too hard to find elsewhere, then you are really paying a premium for the story.  In this situation, folks should ask whether the Promise story, by itself, will justify today's premium over the FMV derived from accurate grading, and whether the story will continue to justify enough of a premium in the future to make you whole (ideally, more than whole for a net gain).   Because if the story does not have enduring appeal, you'll be left with an over-graded book.   

Edited June 19, 2021 by Pantodude

[MasterChief]

8 hours ago, tth2 said:

8 hours ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

Somebody from within is advising these crypto guys. And maybe it’s guy, not guys

Regardless, if you're an investor with no knowledge of a hobby, are you going to want your money to be put into really esoteric books that might not be very liquid?  

If I were looking to diversify my assets into collectibles that I know little about, I'd want to know that the assets my advisor is putting me into are extremely well known and  liquid.  So if sports cards, then the Honus Wagner T-206, Mantle rookie card, Wayne Gretzky, Jordan, LeBron, Messi, etc.  If stamps, the inverted Jenny. 

Even if my advisor was extremely knowledgeable about sports cards and was able to make a strong pitch that the smart money was going into Carlton Fisk cards, I'd be leery as hell.  Particularly $456k going into a Carlton Fisk card. 

Smells like another Jay Parrino or two have entered the hobby.

Perrino dropped a lot of capital on high-grade everything based solely on the lure of CGC grading and encasement in the early days.

IIRC, he didn’t last long. Liquidated his "collection" in a bubble bath of losses.