They're Still Out There! 22 22

[tth2]

9 hours ago, Aman619 said:

10 hours ago, jimjum12 said:

I would kill to own the copy that YOU have now, my friend. Mad 1 is one of the coolest books of all time  GOD BLESS....

-Melvin(a friend of jesus)

Yeah,  Cool as in stagnant!

Heritage killed off my interest in acquiring any Gaines ECs because back in the day, auction after auction would feature a zillion 9.6 and 9.8 copies.  

[tth2]

9 hours ago, Aman619 said:

On the other hand, such a list would put a damper on crazy bidding wars for best copy and hurt the market.  And specifically the sellers. 

Not really, given the expectation that many of those Church copies will not be entering the market any time soon. 

There have been remarkably few fresh to market Churches in recent years, which is why there was such a feeding frenzy for Berk's books and when the Pep and Hit runs came up on Heritage a few years ago.

[jimjum12]

Got my eye on a copy of VALOR 2  ...It seems sacrilege to not have a Gaines ....  GOD BLESS....

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

Edited May 20, 2021 by jimjum12

[jimjum12]

13 minutes ago, tth2 said:

10 hours ago, jimjum12 said:

-Melvin(a friend of jesus)

   

Still got my William and Mary School of Law baseball cap.... as a spectator of course.... GOD BLESS....

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

[Aman619]

8 hours ago, szav said:

HA has 96k for a Mad #1 cgc 9.8 in 2019.  

that being the case, its another example of a potential happy ending if you hold onto a once hot book thats cooled down book that just might hot action again.  If this 100K sale happened in the last year, It feels like another record sale by the "mysterious new money" thats flooded in during Covid. A super high grade of a long running title first issue could sound very attractive to a newish(?) collector hot for key books to scarf up, while being unaware of the other Gaines copies and that Mad has been pretty tepid for a decade. I could argue this book either way, actually.  NO says Mad as a title and cultural touchstone is dead (no longer published) and/or dying in interest.  YES because for 60 years it was a hugely successful and culturally influential magazine for 2 or 3 generations of kids that influenced  their worldview!  It will always have a decent place in out hobby, I wouldn't bet 100K on it though. But not the WORST book to buy..   optimistically, I hope Mad stages a full on comeback cause I have a run of the mags just collecting dust and losing value year after year.

[tth2]

6 minutes ago, jimjum12 said:

Still got my William and Mary School of Law baseball cap.

All I got from them was a piece of paper! 

[Aman619]

9 hours ago, ttecwaf said:

No one doubts this in an incredible collection.  Several comments have been made that I respectfully disagree with.  This is probably not the last time to get a piece of a once in a lifetime collection from the owners.  The owners have already sold/consigned the collection.  What difference does it make if a particular issue is bought in the upcoming auction or down the road? Prices fluctuate even on the pedigrees from Mile High, Billy Wright and the Crippen Pedigrees.  For example, look at the Mile High Flash Comics #3.  Sold in 2008 for $41,825 and in 2010 for $22,705.  In 2 years it decreased by 45%!  The Flash Comics #12 Mile High sold in 2008 for $33,400, 2010 for $23,900 and in 2011 for $25,095.  Not only did the sale price go down it generated more than $17,000 in sales for Heritage.  The All-Flash #12 mile high (graded 9.4-9.8 after pressing) has sold 5 time just on Heritage.  2005: $3450, 2010: $2270, 2011 $2270, 2014 $2629 and again in 2014 for $3346.  From 2005 to 2014 there was no appreciable change in value.  Not great from an investment point of view.  The big winner here was Heritage brining in about $2793 in commission.  The commission they earned was more than it sold for in 3 out of the 5 auctions.  Yes, over time many go up.  The point being values can fluctuate even on the Pedigrees.  The question is how badly do you want the issue and how much do you want to invest.  A friend is very proud they have a bunch of red seal $2 bills.  Almost 60 years old.  These are circulated and worth $5-10 on ebay.  If we use $10 as a value (today) it is worth 5x more today than 1963.  That same $2 (for a single $2 bill)  invested in an index fund (for example purposes) assuming a doubling every 10 years on average would be worth more than $100 today or 10x more value than the bills current value on ebay.  The question is how much does someone want an issue from the Promise collection so they can say they have an issue vs. investing in other more reasonable priced Golden Age.  Recently, I looked at a golden age comic at a local dealer.  It was listed on ebay for more than a year.  Offered to pay cash minus the ebay fees which seemed fair (plus it was cash).  The dealer declined (not sure why).  The best way for those of us who do not have an unlimited budget is to be willing to walk away and have the funds for another day.   Unquestionably many or most will go up over time.  However, it may not be the best investment depending on your time horizon.  It will be fun to watch the auction and I may put in a bid (for what I consider a reasonable value) but it has become a feeding frenzy that will in the short term most likely result in overbidding (which is good for Heritage).  The same thing happened with the Billy Wright collection.  Purchased a few after the auction years down the line at lower prices.  There were some issues (non pedigree)  years ago that Heritage auctioned that I felt were overpriced.  Really wanted them.  About 5 years later I was able to purchase them for 1/3 of the original sale price (from Heritage).  In the end it is a question of how bad to you want the issue and are you willing to wait for it to be resold, buy a different lower graded copy or wait for the next collection to be found.  Yes, I have “overpaid” for certain Golden Age that do not show up frequently.  Do not regret it but know from an investment point of view may not have been the best choice.  Statistically there will probably be another “original” collection that is brought to market.  Maybe not in the same numbers and probably not in the same overall high grade but is that worth jumping into the feeding frenzy?  As far as the numerous comments on overgrading the same thing happened with the Crippen issues.  I remember showing Mr. Nelson on of my Crippen copies (before he was at CGC) and he commented that many were overgraded.  Obvously, the same has occurred with the Promise collection.  Just my thoughts.  Thanks.

theres some backstories to the losses you cited. Yes a buyer paid too much for the Adventures and sold too soon in one case, and lost a lot of money. But most are it was by selling too soon.  With the Billy Wrights, there was a maverick bidder who bought many of them at any price he could before it was learned that he had embezzled the money. When he was caught, the books were up for auction again with the distinct stain that caused bidders sit them out, or to completely ignore the previous sales prices as illegitimate.

Nelson didn't t grade the Crippens, and some things evolved since they were so that now the general opinion is that they were overgraded.. Perhaps he will look back at his Promise grading and feel the same way someday. But this untouched collection really does seem of the same mold as the Church copies, the Bangzoom collection and other Pedigrees of incredible un-handled specimens. 

 

[AJD]

3 minutes ago, Aman619 said:

With the Billy Wrights, there was a maverick bidder who bought many of them at any price he could before it was learned that he had embezzled the money. When he was caught, the books were up for auction again with the distinct stain that caused bidders sit them out, or to completely ignore the previous sales prices as illegitimate.

 

Something has always bothered me about that story. The ridiculous (at the time) prices required at least two bidders, not just one guy trying to launder some money. We aren't privy to the bidding patterns at Heritage, so it's hard to know exactly how that happened.

[Aman619]

yeah, I glossed over the fact that there was an almost equally fervid underbidder too.    Two embezzlers duking it out??

[lou_fine]

Well, all I know is that whoever was the lucky guy to fork over $49,293.75 for this Billy Wright copy of All-Star made outy like a bandit becasue they ended up reselling the book to the comic book embezzler, (Anthony Chiofalo, I would assume) for $200K less than a week later through Heritage's Make Offer to Owner feature that they have on the right hand side of the auction listing description      :

https://comics.ha.com/itm/golden-age-1938-1955-/all-star-comics-3-billy-wright-pedigree-dc-1940-cgc-vf-85-off-white-to-white-pages/a/7054-91043.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515

[lou_fine]

12 hours ago, sfcityduck said:

The Chinatown is sitting in slabs and could be sold at any time.

What makes you think they could be sold anytime soon just because they are sitting in slabs?  

Especially since he hasn't sold any of them, save for the odd funny animal book or a few of the other later ones from the early to mid 50's.  

[Bronty]

Well, he isn’t getting any younger and the time comes for everyone.   But yeah whether that means selling now or 20 years from now, who knows. 

[tabcom]

12 hours ago, BarristerBaker said:

Agreed. Just silly to bid on any Flash Comics. I’m surprised HA will even sell them. Move along, move along...

Wait a second, there’s flash comics coming up!?

Edited May 20, 2021 by tabcom

[cheetah]

7 hours ago, AJD said:

Something has always bothered me about that story. The ridiculous (at the time) prices required at least two bidders, not just one guy trying to launder some money. We aren't privy to the bidding patterns at Heritage, so it's hard to know exactly how that happened.

If I recall, there was some serious punishment bidding going on in that auction.  People recognized someone was unwilling to lose so others made them pay for it.

[jimbo_7071]

On 5/19/2021 at 11:40 AM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

+1.   

I have comics in the registry, but I couldn't even tell you who's in first place, let alone second or third. Many of the nicest collections were built up before slabbing was a thing. These guys with the "highest-graded copies" don't necessarily have the nicest existing copies. They have the highest-graded copies out of the very small number of copies submitted to a particular grading company and graded subjectively. On a different day, their 9.6s might be 9.4s, and somebody else's 9.4s might be 9.6s. The loose grading of the Promise collection proves that "highest-graded" doesn't mean that much. It's way too subjective. I've been collecting since long before CGC was a glimmer in the money grubbers' eyes, so I see numerical grading to the tenths place as something of a marketing gimmick, albeit a successful one.

 

Edited May 24, 2021 by jimbo_7071

[AJD]

1 hour ago, cheetah said:

If I recall, there was some serious punishment bidding going on in that auction.  People recognized someone was unwilling to lose so others made them pay for it.

Man, that's a risky strategy...

[sfcityduck]

6 hours ago, lou_fine said:

What makes you think they could be sold anytime soon just because they are sitting in slabs?  

Especially since he hasn't sold any of them, save for the odd funny animal book or a few of the other later ones from the early to mid 50's.  

“Could” not “will”

[sagii]

Doesn't the Billy Wright pedigree hold the record for most Overstreet Top 100 gold books in a pedigree, if not mistaken? Or something like that...

[sfcityduck]

7 minutes ago, sagii said:

Doesn't the Billy Wright pedigree hold the record for most Overstreet Top 100 gold books in a pedigree, if not mistaken? Or something like that...

How could that not be the MH?  I can only think of a few not in the MH.

Edited May 20, 2021 by sfcityduck

[sagii]

3 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

How could that not be the MH?

..which why I said or something like that.

I remember that the fact that there were so many in the collection,  that was a big part of the marketing campaign.  Im sure I'm slightly off, it has been 9 years