Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[WolverineX]

On 9/2/2021 at 11:39 AM, DC# said:

For those who like looking at numbers.....below is a recap of some select titles/issues from the last ComicLink auction.   Compares CL results to Last and 90 Day GPA.     Tried to make sure it was all apples to apples and only titles that had sales in the past 2-3 months but there may be an oddball or two in there.    And apologies to GA or non-Marvel fans - this is all Marvel stuff.   Some general thoughts:

- Clearly trending down with a few flat to up spots here and there.   Even looking at "Last" and "90 Day" shows the down trend.   For this bucket of books - the average was down 12.6% vs Last and 12.3% vs 90 Day

- This CL auction seemed particularly weak.  Some of the sales were really way off the mark.   Though I will say some of the Comic Connect results this week are below these CL results.  

- The most consistent bright spot is the Spider-man Silver-Age villains which seem to be on a hot streak right now.  

 

Noticed that I didn't update the Secret Wars #8 numbers below.   9.8 was $695 vs $930/$726 and the 9.6 was $303 vs $348/$344

Yes,  I've noticed the down trend as well on multiple books that was tracking 

[aardvark88]

TMNT #1 first print Cgc 9.8 smashed previous record at Comic Connect's fixed price $240k or $245k. Latter price reported by Diamond's Scoop Sept. 1, 2021

[DC#]

On 9/2/2021 at 9:32 AM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Thanks, that is super helpful ... but all I can tell you is that almost everything I bid on (in both the CL and CC auctions) went for way more than I expected.  I was bidding on high-grade Marvel silver and bronze age books and pretty much every time I had to dig deep if I wanted to win.

In particular the holy grails of grails (AF15, IH1, FF1, etc.) are going strong.    Also FF 5 doesn't want to stop - CL only had a 4.0 in this last auction that went for $13k vs $11.1k/$11.4k (last/90).    I didn't get a chance to see the CC results on FF5 (I think there were 3 to 4 books being sold).   Maybe someone else here caught that info.  

On 9/2/2021 at 9:31 AM, PKJ said:

Thats about how my Etrade account looked last summer. 

 

Are you tracking TOD 1 or TOD 10? Pretty sure those are TOD 10 prices. 

Typo - those are TOD 10 prices. Sorry.    

[Dark Knight]

On 9/2/2021 at 10:58 AM, DC# said:

In particular the holy grails of grails (AF15, IH1, FF1, etc.) are going strong.    Also FF 5 doesn't want to stop - CL only had a 4.0 in this last auction that went for $13k vs $11.1k/$11.4k (last/90).    I didn't get a chance to see the CC results on FF5 (I think there were 3 to 4 books being sold).   Maybe someone else here caught that info.  

Typo - those are TOD 10 prices. Sorry.    

CGC 6.0 - $21k

CGC 5.5 - $16,722

CGC 3.5 w/ mc - $7,711

 

[DC#]

On 9/2/2021 at 11:23 AM, Dark Knight said:

CGC 6.0 - $21k

CGC 5.5 - $16,722

CGC 3.5 w/ mc - $7,711

 

Last 6.0 sale was June 20 so no good comps.    5.5 was June at $18.5k (no 90 day) and 3.5 is $3.7k (outlier?) with 90 day at $6.5k.   T    

[badback83]

On 9/2/2021 at 2:29 PM, DC# said:

Last 6.0 sale was June 20 so no good comps.    5.5 was June at $18.5k (no 90 day) and 3.5 is $3.7k (outlier?) with 90 day at $6.5k.   T    

Yes, I have a vested interest in CGC 3.5 sales.  I have a copy with white pages and no marvel chipping.  Either the person who sold that is out of their mind, or it’s a scam. 

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 9/2/2021 at 1:58 PM, DC# said:

In particular the holy grails of grails (AF15, IH1, FF1, etc.) are going strong.    Also FF 5 doesn't want to stop - CL only had a 4.0 in this last auction that went for $13k vs $11.1k/$11.4k (last/90).    I didn't get a chance to see the CC results on FF5 (I think there were 3 to 4 books being sold).   Maybe someone else here caught that info.      

I'm not really talking about holy grails in this particular case -- to give a few examples, I would say that the 9.6 copies of early (1968-69) Captain America and Doctor Strange went for pretty crazy prices.  A number of these books were pedigrees, and I am inferring that some bidders were willing to pay unusually high premiums on those pedigrees, so that variable does skew my observation quite a bit.  As someone who doesn't really care so much about pedigrees but does want sharp 9.6 WP copies of these books, I was definitely feeling the pain.

[DC#]

On 9/2/2021 at 1:58 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I'm not really talking about holy grails in this particular case -- to give a few examples, I would say that the 9.6 copies of early (1968-69) Captain America and Doctor Strange went for pretty crazy prices.  A number of these books were pedigrees, and I am inferring that some bidders were willing to pay unusually high premiums on those pedigrees, so that variable does skew my observation quite a bit.  As someone who doesn't really care so much about pedigrees but does want sharp 9.6 WP copies of these books, I was definitely feeling the pain.

I feel ya.   I still have a few dozen books I wouldn't mind owning if the price is right....but then there are the handful that I just need to be prepared to go all in on.    I did that a few times this year - ended up overpaying at the time but the market quickly passed my high-water mark.   

[batmiesta]

On 9/2/2021 at 9:58 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I'm not really talking about holy grails in this particular case -- to give a few examples, I would say that the 9.6 copies of early (1968-69) Captain America and Doctor Strange went for pretty crazy prices.  A number of these books were pedigrees, and I am inferring that some bidders were willing to pay unusually high premiums on those pedigrees, so that variable does skew my observation quite a bit.  As someone who doesn't really care so much about pedigrees but does want sharp 9.6 WP copies of these books, I was definitely feeling the pain.

Same here, nearly all books in 9.6 9.8 are still going for crazy prices, I'm just not prepared to play that game. 

[DC#]

On 9/2/2021 at 2:49 PM, batmiesta said:

Same here, nearly all books in 9.6 9.8 are still going for crazy prices, I'm just not prepared to play that game. 

I assume this market is made up of three principal players - collectors, investors, and speculators.     And though there are people out there that may define themselves as purely one of these - I suspect that many active buyers in the market are some combination.    Speculators (or the speculator in us) helped fuel some of the rapid growth this year - even among keys.   Investors are helping to keep some of the key, high-grade books at new highs.   And at some point collectors (including traditional dealers) will need to come in and re-establish the new floor as prices decline.       Though speculators will come back in at some point as well to see if they can catch the next rising wave.  

[djzombi]

Wow, some HUGE (e.g. 30%) drops here...!

yikes

[MatterEaterLad]

@DC# Thank you for aggregating all that info. Super helpful.

I'm glad I didn't try to sell my ASM 129 9.6! That 40+% drop is 

[bc]

On 8/31/2021 at 6:01 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Good example of why I generally avoid .5 grades.

My working theory is that there are people who set out to buy (for example) 8.0 or better and they'll take an 8.5 but they don't really think of it as appreciably better than an 8.0, eye appeal being more or less equal.  My theory is that very few people set out with a target grade of 8.5.

(Fight me.)

Ummm, I know a guy who targets 8.5's of a particular genre....  

-bc

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 9/3/2021 at 2:27 PM, bc said:

Ummm, I know a guy who targets 8.5's of a particular genre....  

-bc

Just about every theory I have comes with a big asterisk that your mileage may vary based on the age and genre of the books you're collecting!

[PKJ]

@DC#

Thanks for gathering, I track a few but this is pretty comprehensive and eye opening. There is one Bronze age key that I have been looking to get back into the collection after selling all my copies a few years ago to fund something else. Even with a 30% drop it looks like I will be paying twice what I sold the exact grade for but this may be the only dip for the higher demand books.

Edited September 3, 2021 by PKJ

[Cool Ghoul]

On 8/31/2021 at 5:58 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Thanks for this analysis!

I bought the first (more expensive) MS #32 and when I saw the second result, I was a bit sad.  But I do think mine has a noticeably better wrap, and most copies don't.  I'll try to convince myself that the price difference is worth it.

First off, I would not be sad at all.  As a collector, I focus on the quality of the quality of the actual book, not just the grade assigned to it.

Secondly, I feel that in the future, page quality and a nicely centered presentation will command even more of a premium.

My collection is limited but with keys (TOD #10, MS #5, WBN #32, etc.) that all share the same qualities: 9.0 or above, WHITE pages, and a nice center wrap (no white border on left; fully framed or just a hint of white space between spine and price).

In the example shown, I would not purchase the 2nd copy for my personal collection; it's only value to me would be what I could re-sell it for.

Just my 2 cents.  To me, your book is worth the ~ $1K price delta.

[Cool Ghoul]

On 8/31/2021 at 6:27 PM, DC# said:

Another example.....ASM 238.     27% difference on same page quality and direct edition - 3 days apart.    Again - later sale did much worse than earlier sale.     The higher one was just below the 90 day average but above the last sale of $2880 (Aug 26th).    Peak was $4100 in June.     

 

In my OCD world, the copy to the left is not centered (white border showing); the one on the right is. As a collector, I would only be interested in the copy on the right.

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 9/4/2021 at 12:38 PM, Cool Ghoul said:

First off, I would not be sad at all.  As a collector, I focus on the quality of the quality of the actual book, not just the grade assigned to it.

Secondly, I feel that in the future, page quality and a nicely centered presentation will command even more of a premium.

My collection is limited but with keys (TOD #10, MS #5, WBN #32, etc.) that all share the same qualities: 9.0 or above, WHITE pages, and a nice center wrap (no white border on left; fully framed or just a hint of white space between spine and price).

In the example shown, I would not purchase the 2nd copy for my personal collection; it's only value to me would be what I could re-sell it for.

Just my 2 cents.  To me, your book is worth the ~ $1K price delta.

Yup

 

White pages and perfect QP allowed me ignore the nosebleed prices of 9.6/9.8s bronze books and collect 9.4 very happily 

[UncleBEN]

On 9/4/2021 at 9:42 AM, Cool Ghoul said:

In my OCD world, the copy to the left is not centered (white border showing); the one on the right is. As a collector, I would only be interested in the copy on the right.

While I agree with you, neither of these would be acceptable for a keeper for me. As there are so many copies of these issues, I only look for a perfect wrap vertically and horizontally. The right side copy is the lesser of two evils but that slanted top edge would not work for me personally . Although sometimes we have to settle ;P 

 

Edited September 4, 2021 by UncleBEN

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 9/4/2021 at 12:38 PM, Cool Ghoul said:

First off, I would not be sad at all.  As a collector, I focus on the quality of the quality of the actual book, not just the grade assigned to it.

Secondly, I feel that in the future, page quality and a nicely centered presentation will command even more of a premium.

My collection is limited but with keys (TOD #10, MS #5, WBN #32, etc.) that all share the same qualities: 9.0 or above, WHITE pages, and a nice center wrap (no white border on left; fully framed or just a hint of white space between spine and price).

In the example shown, I would not purchase the 2nd copy for my personal collection; it's only value to me would be what I could re-sell it for.

Just my 2 cents.  To me, your book is worth the ~ $1K price delta.

Thanks.  I can't say if it's worth $1K more, but this book is in plentiful supply in 9.6 and 9.8, and most copies have the centering problem, so I was deliberately being aggressive in going after this well-centered copy.