Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[Vixom]

On 10/15/2022 at 5:11 PM, The humble Watcher lurking said:

Most likely this will get another bump and second life.

 

 

Surprised it didn't already but wouldn't surprise me. Went down after 1st movie and up again before the 2nd. Believe it went up again when Disney got the rights even though the fox movies were well received. I won't be buying any to get in on the huge profits but I can see a bump. 

[COI]

A character being prominent in media, and media in turn boosting a character's prominence in pop culture or the collective consciousness or whatever the argument is, doesn't tell me anything about what prices should be paid for their first appearances.

I have no data on any of this, so it's all conjecture, but I don't really believe that these movies directly result in a meaningful increase in demand for books within the high end segment of this hobby. It may create fans of the character, and maybe some small percentage of those fans decide to collect, and maybe some small percentage of those collectors eventually end up in the high end side of things, but none of this has anything to do with the run-up in prices on key books whenever a trailer or any piece of news about a future project is released to the public.

These movies are a multi-billion dollar business with millions and millions of fans; where are these buyers? Where is the evidence that the people going to shows looking for keys, even the younger ones, wouldn't have become collectors even if the movies didn't exist? You know, nerds, dorks, people predisposed to collecting this type of material, like most of us were 20-40 years ago? If these blockbuster billion dollar franchises are creating fans in droves, why are comic books still lagging way behind sports cards in terms of the number of collectors and census numbers? Why are we disparaging books like Hulk 181 or ASM 300 for having 5 figure census counts, when those counts are absolutely TINY compared to what we see in the sports card world?

The reason books soar in the run-up and fall flat after the movie comes out is precisely because it's not about the movie, it's about speculators speculating on other speculators; it's about people trying to make a fast buck by anticipating other people's FOMO and generating hype for the stuff they're holding; it's about slamming CGC by pressing and submitting books fast enough to capitalize on some creative at Disney alluding to the possible appearance of some d-list dollar-bin character in an unnamed project without a release date..

If you really want to buy a bunch of collectibles that are relevant to young people today, you're probably far better off buying Funko Pops. Kids are actually collecting those now, sort of like how kids were actually collecting comics in the 1960s, and those kids will eventually grow up. It's highly unlikely that they will ditch what they know and what is actually accessible to them as a collector, to inherit the massive, high quality, multi-million dollar collections of newsprint the boomers will be leaving as they shuffle off to the next realm.

Edited October 15, 2022 by COI

[Vixom]

On 10/15/2022 at 5:36 PM, COI said:

I have no data on any of this, so it's all conjecture, but I don't really believe that these movies directly result in a meaningful increase in demand for books within the high end segment of this hobby.

Did tales of suspense not go up with the 08 movie? Did prices of key avengers members not go up when Sam Jackson showed up in after credits? Did X-men and FF keys not increase when the news broke about Disney buying Fox? If that's not enough evidence for you then there will never be anything to convince you. Enjoy your life on our beautiful flat earth. 

[COI]

On 10/15/2022 at 6:41 PM, Thisisrequired said:

Did tales of suspense not go up with the 08 movie? Did prices of key avengers members not go up when Sam Jackson showed up in after credits? Did X-men and FF keys not increase when the news broke about Disney buying Fox? If that's not enough evidence for you then there will never be anything to convince you. Enjoy your life on our beautiful flat earth. 

The major books in our hobby, SA Marvels in particular, have been moving upwards steadily for decades. I have no reason to believe they wouldn't have continued that trend if Iron Man '08 didn't happen. It may be the case that that the MCU accelerated the market, but I'm not sure if that's because the movie sent an influx of new customers into the market, or if it just stimulated the existing market. Probably both. I also think the effect movies had on the market a decade ago isn't the same as the effect it's having now. 

As I prefaced, conjecture on my part. What isn't conjecture is that the earth is indeed flat, and you're a fool if you think otherwise.

[dikran]

Today, you’re better off if a character you’re speculating on NEVER appears in a movie and just keeps getting “rumored” forever cuz you’ll never have the post movie crash 😂 (🤞 Power Girl & Zatanna)

[KCOComics]

On 10/15/2022 at 2:58 PM, Thisisrequired said:

Not we. I knew that extreme price increase from the surplus of money from  being locked down wasn't sustainable. Intelligent collectors didn't lose any value at all because they weren't buying. Bonus pro tip. Don't buy the book before the movie. 

Also seems those values went down before the recession. If we are even in a recession. Didn't they try to change it and spin it so we aren't. 

Just because you didn't sell doesn't mean the market isn't contracting at a similar rate to the rest of the economy. 

No one is arguing that comics haven't grown in value over time. But like other investments, they are impacted by broader economic conditions. 

[mjoeyoung]

On 10/15/2022 at 3:36 PM, COI said:

it's about speculators speculating on other speculators

THIS.  How much of the current runup in value is due to THIS.  There was a lot of FOMO going around.  Why else would people be paying big bucks for Welcome Back Kotter #1 or A-Team #1?  People have been buying stuff because they THINK it might go up and they've created self-fulfilling events.  I don't understand why all the reprint books from the 70's and the facsimile books from current times are so expensive.  Paying $100 for a 9.8 2020 reprint of TOS #39?  The only value a reprint has is in the READING!

I think a lot of new people to collecting are going to feel burned because they spent money, sometimes BIG money, on books they thought were going to go up in value.  I doubt that most new collectors in these auctions are buying these books to crack and read them.  They care about things like characters on the label and scuff marks on the case.  These are not comic books, they are PERCEIVED VALUE.  When I bought my AF#15 30 years ago I actually READ IT!  How many people today are doing that?  I would guess that for most new people buying,  AF#15 ONLY equals some amount of money.  To me, that book was the pinnacle of my comic collecting life because it was the, well, you know, I don't have to say it.  I would also guess that for most of us here our collections are MORE than just a dollar sign.  Is that true for the "new" collectors?  If not, as the value plummets, so will their interest in the hobby.

[Vixom]

On 10/15/2022 at 7:24 PM, COI said:

The major books in our hobby, SA Marvels in particular, have been moving upwards steadily for decades. I have no reason to believe they wouldn't have continued that trend if Iron Man '08 didn't happen. It may be the case that that the MCU accelerated the market, but I'm not sure if that's because the movie sent an influx of new customers into the market, or if it just stimulated the existing market. Probably both. I also think the effect movies had on the market a decade ago isn't the same as the effect it's having now. 

As I prefaced, conjecture on my part. What isn't conjecture is that the earth is indeed flat, and you're a fool if you think otherwise.

I had all the big keys and they didn't do anything other than maybe keep up with inflation from the late 90s to MCU. Your books must have been special. 

[COI]

On 10/15/2022 at 9:14 PM, Thisisrequired said:

I had all the big keys and they didn't do anything other than maybe keep up with inflation from the late 90s to MCU. Your books must have been special. 

Keeping up with inflation is a steady move upwards. Notice I didn't say anything about returns.

I'm glad you see all this non-speculative demand for vintage books from movie goers. Your hobby must be special.

[Vixom]

On 10/15/2022 at 8:33 PM, KCOComics said:

Just because you didn't sell doesn't mean the market isn't contracting at a similar rate to the rest of the economy. 

No one is arguing that comics haven't grown in value over time. But like other investments, they are impacted by broader economic conditions. 

I did sell. I sold everything. No better time in history to have sold. Sorry but not seeing the impact. Prices in general appear to be the same as 2019. Didn't see any impact in 2008. I am not saying they can't be impacted. Just havn't seen it yet. 

[Vixom]

On 10/15/2022 at 9:21 PM, COI said:

Keeping up with inflation is a steady move upwards. Notice I didn't say anything about returns.

I'm glad you see all this non-speculative demand for vintage books from movie goers. Your hobby must be special.

Would have to be blind not to see. As soon as the news got out about disney getting xmen and ff my books went up like 40 percent. How would someone miss that? If it wasn't for the mcu I would still have trash like last jedi, ego, god butcher, white vision can't remember. All i know is some rumor or trailer comes out and something I consider trash starts selling for real money. 

Like I said. The evidence is there but you refuse to accept it. No biggie. 

[troydivision1]

On 10/15/2022 at 5:36 PM, COI said:

The reason books soar in the run-up and fall flat after the movie comes out is precisely because it's not about the movie, it's about speculators speculating on other speculators; it's about people trying to make a fast buck by anticipating other people's FOMO and generating hype for the stuff they're holding; it's about slamming CGC by pressing and submitting books fast enough to capitalize on some creative at Disney alluding to the possible appearance of some d-list dollar-bin character in an unnamed project without a release date..

100% this.
I recall an amazing (IMHO) boardee named Branget once referenced the quote "You sell the sizzle, not the steak" when explaining the cycle of selling spec books.
Most are selling to people that hope to sell to others that hope to sell to others...
(aka the greater fool theory)

[COI]

On 10/15/2022 at 9:35 PM, Thisisrequired said:

Would have to be blind not to see. As soon as the news got out about disney getting xmen and ff my books went up like 40 percent. How would someone miss that? If it wasn't for the mcu I would still have trash like last jedi, ego, god butcher, white vision can't remember. All i know is some rumor or trailer comes out and something I consider trash starts selling for real money. 

Like I said. The evidence is there but you refuse to accept it. No biggie. 

How does this contradict anything I said? You picked one line from my post and took it out of context.

I acknowledged that prices soar after movie announcements. My claim is that this is speculators speculating on other speculators, which is why prices on books have been plummeting after a movie comes out, regardless of whether or not the movie is good. Prices don't seem to be rising based on the movies creating fans; if that were true, prices would continue to rise afterwards. 

That may have happened after Iron Man in '08 and Avengers in '12, but it's 2022 and speculators are running wild trying to make quick cash.

Edited October 16, 2022 by COI

[troydivision1]

Continued tracking of my 50 piece personal collection's value for insurance purposes.
I am utilizing eBay sold items (with auctions taking priority over buy-it-now) to determine FMV.

January to February           .40% increase
February to March            2.05% increase
March to April                   4.07% decrease
April to May                      1.14% decrease
May to June                        .01% decrease
June to July                      1.83% decrease
July to August                   3.15% decrease
August to September        7.01% decrease
September to October      1.68% increase

 

[Vixom]

On 10/15/2022 at 10:18 PM, COI said:

How does this contradict anything I said? You picked one line from my post and took it out of context.

I acknowledged that prices soar after movie announcements. My claim is that this is speculators speculating on other speculators, which is why prices on books have been plummeting after a movie comes out, regardless of whether or not the movie is good. Prices don't seem to be rising based on the movies creating fans; if that were true, prices would continue to rise afterwards. 

That may have happened after Iron Man in '08 and Avengers in '12, but it's 2022 and speculators are running wild trying to make quick cash.

I never said it was movie goers buying on the movie news although I have met plenty of people who never bought a comic who were inspired to by the love of the movies. Seems like a even mixture of collectors and speculators. Haven't put any thought into why the books drop after the movie. I just take the fools money and wish them luck. My guess is that book is old news and they move on to the next thing so they can get it and show it off on social media. Like one kid gets a toy the others have to have one. I would say new buyers are coming from somewhere because you can only buy so many books and see them lose half their value after the movie so many times. Figure its a mix of actual new collectors who just hit the buy it now without doing any research on past history. People who need it to show it off. People who hear you can make money with comics who will buy it now and sell it for a profit once the movie comes out. We may be on the same page. I don't read things carefully unless i have to sign something and been trying to watch baseball and football at same time. 

[ThothAmon]

On 10/15/2022 at 4:41 PM, dikran1 said:

Maybe it’s just me but I still don’t see the logic of a movie or other media increasing the price of a comic… movies and TV shows about these characters have existed long before most of us were born, it’s all nonsense. 

 

On 10/15/2022 at 5:21 PM, dikran1 said:

Basically what I meant was are we all not comic collectors? We pretty much know who the A-B list characters are and where they first appeared. Their relevance shouldn’t be effected by whether or not they appear in a show or video game but rather their relevance within the hobby itself. Literally NO ONE who isn’t already in the hobby is seeing these movies and saying “darn it, I need to get me whatever that Thor guy’s first comic is”… right? So who exactly is this “movie hype” for if not just ourselves?… just utter nonsense…

 

On 10/15/2022 at 7:52 PM, dikran1 said:

Today, you’re better off if a character you’re speculating on NEVER appears in a movie and just keeps getting “rumored” forever cuz you’ll never have the post movie crash 😂 (🤞 Power Girl & Zatanna)

Brother, it can’t be all bad?  I’m curious about your board name?

[DC#]

[MAR1979]

On 10/15/2022 at 9:57 PM, troy.division said:

100% this.
I recall an amazing (IMHO) boardee named Branget once referenced the quote "You sell the sizzle, not the steak" when explaining the cycle of selling spec books.
Most are selling to people that hope to sell to others that hope to sell to others...
(aka the greater fool theory)

or simply Rubes being Rubes

Edited October 16, 2022 by MAR1979

[dikran]

On 10/15/2022 at 11:23 PM, ThothAmon said:

 

 

Brother, it can’t be all bad?  I’m curious about your board name?

It’s my actual name, which is a common Armenian first name. Had to add the 1 after some Board update in 2017 but I’ve been on here since ‘07. 
As for the bad?… Buying comics today is essentially like buying a new car, you lose 40-50% of the value as soon as the auction ends… 

[Norrin_Radd]

"Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit???"

Comics I'm selling?  Prices (demand) have cooled (some by quite a bit)

Comics I'm trying to buy?  Prices (demand) are as strong as ever.

Same as it ever was...