Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 10/20/2022 at 5:33 PM, Poekaymon said:

What a bunch of nimrods.  I don't care what it sold for, but I read the description and got hives.  I haven't seen this many hokey and demonstrably false superlatives in a long time.  I hate this sort of puffery so much.  (By the way, some sale threads here are guilty of this too--just sayin'.  (Please stop.)  ((Please.))

1.  "Unreal deep rich colors" - The colors seem normal to me.  It doesn't belong in the sun-fade thread I guess.  But I don't think they are bending the fabric of reality with their peculiar depth and richness.

2.  "Beautiful spine" - Is it?  Not sure I've heard a spine described as beautiful before.  Is it because it's not covered in color-breaking ticks? 

3.  "Perfect cover alignment" - No it isn't.  What are we talking about here anyway, wrap/centering?  Either way, imperfect.

4.  "Bone white pages" - No they aren't.  It has the designation "white pages" but that definitely doesn't mean white like bone.

5.  "Brand new perfect CGC holder" - No it isn't.  I looked at it for 10 seconds and saw scuffs.

6.  "Structurally extremely impressive" - What does that even mean?  

I also like how it talks about how "EVERY" 9.8 that has come to market has set a new record, and mentions that the last record was $138k--then closes at 125.  Glad this one broke the streak. 

[D2]

On 10/20/2022 at 12:07 AM, DC# said:

That Hulk sale got me to thinking - does anyone know of any other book selling for over $100k that has over 100 copies on the census at those values?    Amazing Fantasy 15 in 6/7 and up would qualify.   Even if prices drop more there are still more than 100 copies at 7.5 and up.   IH 181 has 136 9.8s and one 9.9.

Batman #1 would also be right at 100 copies all over $100k.   Anything else? 
 

But nothing else would come close in a single grade in such volumes at such prices as IH181 

Kind of how I feel. 
I’m a monster Wolverine fan, but the prices for a copy aren’t interesting to me. 
$3,000 for a CGC 1.8? 

Never. 
Hulk 181 screams “worst possible investment” to me. 

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 10/20/2022 at 8:58 PM, D2 said:

Kind of how I feel. 
I’m a monster Wolverine fan, but the prices for a copy aren’t interesting to me. 
$3,000 for a CGC 1.8? 

Never. 
Hulk 181 screams “worst possible investment” to me. 

Just so I understand your reasons why ... is it because there are so many available copies in the census?  Because that's my issue with ASM #300.  Both books are keys, in fact each is routinely referred to as the "holy grail" of its generation.  But supply on both is plentiful.

[D2]

On 10/20/2022 at 9:02 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Just so I understand your reasons why ... is it because there are so many available copies in the census?  Because that's my issue with ASM #300.  Both books are keys, in fact each is routinely referred to as the "holy grail" of its generation.  But supply on both is plentiful.

Yes, exactly. It’s not that I don’t want a copy, I do, but the value of how much I would have to pay compared to how many are on the census feels wrong. I feel like it’s all too high. I feel like people are hoarding copies which have made the book inflated. I don’t mind spending money on something either, but $3,000 for a copy that looks like it was stored in someone’s bathroom? Nah. No thanks. 
 

2 CGC 9.8 SS, both signed by Stan Lee, sold for $50k or less, 2 weeks ago. Can you imagine that kind of loss?

 

At that level, it’s no longer a hobby 

[mephistopheles]

On 10/17/2022 at 11:12 PM, paqart said:

McFarland and JS Campbell make the same kind of drawing errors, though admittedly with some style. Starlin is like that also; loads of drawing errors but stylish. Venom was like a shark with legs: an eating machine. That said, I'm glad other people like the character and I did enjoy the movie. McFarland's drawings just don't sit right with me. Someone else from the same period that I much prefer is Walt Simonson. His drawing, particularly his compositions and inking, make him my favorite artist from that era.

I think you ruined McFarland for me. I can't unsee the janky anatomy in ASM 300 now.

[Microchip]

On 10/21/2022 at 12:02 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

On 10/21/2022 at 11:58 AM, D2 said:

Kind of how I feel. 
I’m a monster Wolverine fan, but the prices for a copy aren’t interesting to me. 
$3,000 for a CGC 1.8? 

Never. 
Hulk 181 screams “worst possible investment” to me. 

Just so I understand your reasons why ... is it because there are so many available copies in the census?  Because that's my issue with ASM #300.  Both books are keys, in fact each is routinely referred to as the "holy grail" of its generation.  But supply on both is plentiful.

The demand exceeds the supply, then they are both low supply books.

ALL books have similar populations, out there in the wild.  But people are only sending these books into CGC on mass, because it's in their interest to do so.   Any other book that can get 6 figures for a 9.8, the population report is going to explode from our perspective.   Obviously more so for BA and above books.

We had all the conversations on sport card populations vs comic book pops over the last two years.   Comic book's are next to non existent when compared to other comparable collectibles.   We had sport card guys move into comic books in the last two years, as a part of the climatic price rises seen.   Cards have cooled down in price, and the card guys buying comics have cooled.

[COI]

The market has already taken supply into account; everyone knows how many Hulk 181s are out there.

If the book was rarer, an entry level copy would be $30K, not $3K. 

[lou_fine]

On 10/20/2022 at 6:02 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Just so I understand your reasons why ... is it because there are so many available copies in the census?  Because that's my issue with ASM #300.  Both books are keys, in fact each is routinely referred to as the "holy grail" of its generation.  But supply on both is plentiful.

 

On 10/20/2022 at 6:10 PM, D2 said:

Yes, exactly. It’s not that I don’t want a copy, I do, but the value of how much I would have to pay compared to how many are on the census feels wrong. I feel like it’s all too high.

Hate to be the bearer of bad news here........................but if you guys are worried about the huge number of copies that's already showing up on the CGC Census Population Report, just think about all of the thousands of raw HG copies that are still sitting in the private collections of long time comic book collectors who have no real reason to have their copies graded to this point in time yet.    

Edited October 21, 2022 by lou_fine

[D2]

On 10/20/2022 at 11:54 PM, Microchip said:

The demand exceeds the supply, then they are both low supply books.

ALL books have similar populations, out there in the wild.  But people are only sending these books into CGC on mass, because it's in their interest to do so.   Any other book that can get 6 figures for a 9.8, the population report is going to explode from our perspective.   Obviously more so for BA and above books.

We had all the conversations on sport card populations vs comic book pops over the last two years.   Comic book's are next to non existent when compared to other comparable collectibles.   We had sport card guys move into comic books in the last two years, as a part of the climatic price rises seen.   Cards have cooled down in price, and the card guys buying comics have cooled.

Yes I’ve heard this story all before. 
And we can talk and debate your rationale versus my rationale. 
I could bring up the fact that the same group of buyers are hoarding copies of Hulk 181s like it’s bread during the depression.

Same buyers as Hulk 340, I’d like to point out. How many people that have a copy of. 340, have more than 1?

By all means, if you feel that spending $3,000 on a copy of a comic book that looks like it was used to line my dog’s crate, more power to you. 
 

On 10/21/2022 at 12:02 AM, COI said:

The market has already taken supply into account; everyone knows how many Hulk 181s are out there.

If the book was rarer, an entry level copy would be $30K, not $3K. 

Speculation. 
Something Hulk 181 thrives on. 
 

On 10/21/2022 at 12:16 AM, lou_fine said:

 

Hate to be the bearer of bad news here........................but if you guys are worried about the huge number of copies that's already showing up on the CGC Census Population Report, just think about all of the thousands of raw HG copies that are still sitting in the private collections of long time comic book collectors who have no real reason to have their copies graded to this point in time yet.    

Makes no difference to me, I don’t own a copy. 

[COI]

On 10/21/2022 at 12:44 AM, D2 said:

Speculation. 
Something Hulk 181 thrives on. 

What does this mean?

Hulk 181 is currently $3K for a low grade copy, because the book is in tremendous demand. If the book were rarer but the current demand was the same, it would be much more expensive. You can call that speculative if you want, but it follows logically from where the book currently is. The market doesn't care about what any of us feel the book should be worth.

Do you think AF 15 thrives on speculation? Do you think Wolverine is far behind Spider-Man in popularity?

[COI]

On 10/20/2022 at 11:54 PM, Microchip said:

The demand exceeds the supply, then they are both low supply books.

ALL books have similar populations, out there in the wild.  But people are only sending these books into CGC on mass, because it's in their interest to do so.   Any other book that can get 6 figures for a 9.8, the population report is going to explode from our perspective.   Obviously more so for BA and above books.

Exactly. A book priced as high as Hulk 181 is going to be slabbed; and for many copies, not just once. And considering that it's highly unlikely that every resubber is going to send the older label to CGC to update its census, the numbers are inflated anyway.

Even putting that aside, there are just over 16,000 copies graded. 16,000 copies of one of the most popular books in the hobby. 

[Microchip]

On 10/21/2022 at 4:04 PM, COI said:

Exactly. A book priced as high as Hulk 181 is going to be slabbed; and for many copies, not just once. And considering that it's highly unlikely that every resubber is going to send the older label to CGC to update its census, the numbers are inflated anyway.

Even putting that aside, there are just over 16,000 copies graded. 16,000 copies of one of the most popular books in the hobby. 

Thats peanuts next to card populations.

[Microchip]

On 10/21/2022 at 3:44 PM, D2 said:

Yes I’ve heard this story all before. 
And we can talk and debate your rationale versus my rationale. 
I could bring up the fact that the same group of buyers are hoarding copies of Hulk 181s like it’s bread during the depression.

Same buyers as Hulk 340, I’d like to point out. How many people that have a copy of. 340, have more than 1?

By all means, if you feel that spending $3,000 on a copy of a comic book that looks like it was used to line my dog’s crate, more power to you. 
 

Speculation. 
Something Hulk 181 thrives on. 
 

Makes no difference to me, I don’t own a copy. 

Your logic is back to front.

None of these are cheap books at all in high grade.   The no.1 most subbed book is the number 1 performer, in ALL grades.

 

[Steven Valdez]

On 10/21/2022 at 3:50 PM, COI said:

What does this mean?

Hulk 181 is currently $3K for a low grade copy, because the book is in tremendous demand. If the book were rarer but the current demand was the same, it would be much more expensive. You can call that speculative if you want, but it follows logically from where the book currently is. The market doesn't care about what any of us feel the book should be worth.

Do you think AF 15 thrives on speculation? Do you think Wolverine is far behind Spider-Man in popularity?

We know for a fact that Hulk #181 was included in the Mile High II collection of 1.5 million uncirculated books. I've spoken with a dealer in the US who says Chuck used to trade quantities of his bulk finds as a way of 'laundering' and varying his stock. Guys would just sit on multi-copy boxes for years, being careful not to flood the market all at once.

[COI]

On 10/21/2022 at 2:13 AM, Steven Valdez said:

We know for a fact that Hulk #181 was included in the Mile High II collection of 1.5 million uncirculated books. I've spoken with a dealer in the US who says Chuck used to trade quantities of his bulk finds as a way of 'laundering' and varying his stock. Guys would just sit on multi-copy boxes for years, being careful not to flood the market all at once.

Right now, we know that 1) Hulk 181 is one of the most sought after books in the entire hobby; 2) entry level for a complete copy is at around $3K.

Past prices and availability aren't relevant. Yes, I remember when mid-grades could be bought all day for $300; now they cost $5000. A NM was $2500, now it's close to $20K. Where are these hoards of copies? Is 20K for a near mint not enough incentive to at least submit the books? 

AF 15 in mid-grade was 5k;  now it's 100K, or close to it. In a market where AF 15 in mid grade is a six figure book, Hulk 181 in mid grade at 5K makes sense. Arguably, these are the two most sought after books in the hobby; as such, the difference in availability of the Hulk 181 vs AF 15 is reflected in the price: 5K vs 100K in mid grades; in top grades, low six figures vs low seven figures.

I'm bearish on the long-term future of this market and I'm no fan of rampant speculation driving dollar bin dreck. As a collector, I'm also not fond of the prices I have to pay for books now. But let's be logically consistent and not pick on books based on our individual collecting sensibilities. Old school collectors like rarity, but rarity is only one part of the equation. It's simply inconsistent to pick on books like Hulk 181 and ASM 300, when the difference in the supply of these books vs their early silver key counterparts is already reflected in the prices they command.

[Steven Valdez]

On 10/21/2022 at 6:02 PM, COI said:

Right now, we know that 1) Hulk 181 is one of the most sought after books in the entire hobby; 2) entry level for a complete copy is at around $3K.

Past prices and availability aren't relevant. Yes, I remember when mid-grades could be bought all day for $300; now they cost $5000. A NM was $2500, now it's close to $20K. Where are these hoards of copies? Is 20K for a near mint not enough incentive to at least submit the books? 

AF 15 in mid-grade was 5k;  now it's 100K, or close to it. In a market where AF 15 in mid grade is a six figure book, Hulk 181 in mid grade at 5K makes sense. Arguably, these are the two most sought after books in the hobby; as such, the difference in availability of the Hulk 181 vs AF 15 is reflected in the price: 5K vs 100K in mid grades; in top grades, low six figures vs low seven figures.

I'm bearish on the long-term future of this market and I'm no fan of rampant speculation driving dollar bin dreck. As a collector, I'm also not fond of the prices I have to pay for books now. But let's be logically consistent and not pick on books based on our individual collecting sensibilities. Old school collectors like rarity, but rarity is only one part of the equation. It's simply inconsistent to pick on books like Hulk 181 and ASM 300, when the difference in the supply of these books vs their early silver key counterparts is already reflected in the prices they command.

Yes, and those books came out 40 - 60 years ago, so there have been multiple generations of collectors chasing them over the decades. The demand will always exceed supply, even if more warehouse finds emerge. Supply will be fueled somewhat as the older generations pass away; their high-grade books will re-enter the market. I know plenty of guys who have NM/M Silver Age keys they bought when they were still affordable. 

As for rarity, that was never a consideration for me. I collect most Silver Age Marvel, not because it's rare (it isn't) but because it's good.

Edited October 21, 2022 by Steven Valdez

[BraveDave]

Multi copy holders (if rampant) can distort the real supply / demand balance. I suspect for IH181 the speculative aspect of supply and demand is meaningful. I actually have long-term positive views of this market but a negative view on some slices (including Ih181) for this very reason.

I agree with posters that are skeptical of a book like this retaining its value. Interesting that Ih181 and GSX are down about 35 and 50% from peak respectively (in most higher grades). This is worse than the less speculative segments like SA DC and far worse than GA books generally. I think we will see even more divergence over the next 12 months.

 

[D2]

On 10/21/2022 at 1:39 AM, Microchip said:

Your logic is back to front.

None of these are cheap books at all in high grade.   The no.1 most subbed book is the number 1 performer, in ALL grades.

 

 

And I think most books on this list are overpriced.

I do, I really do. I think there are many people hoarding many many copies of books, and there is a substantial age category band of collectors, interested in this very specific area.

You and @COI are comparing a book like AF15 to H181, which are two different books. Aside from the popularity of the character, which can be argued in both ways if they are on equal playing field, are not created equally from a market perspective.

Most of these books on this list had a spike, and now these books are double? their values? double? regardless of what they were worth in 2019? double? 

X-Men 266, Blue 9.8, $465, THE FOLLOWING YEAR: $995

Amazing Spider-Man 129, $11,600, THE FOLLOWING YEAR: $32,000

Wolverine 1, $375, THE FOLLOWING YEAR: $850

The list goes on and on, your whole list up there is subject to this doubling, regardless of what the previous price was.

 

Listen guys, I hear ya, seeing prices go up gets me excited as a hobbyist for sure, but I don't just collect comics. I invest in the housing market and stocks, and something just feels unnatural. Flat out... and when we are talking a thousand dollars a book, two thousand dollars... I won't squirm much if I lose out on my purchase. When we are talking $20k, $50k, $100k... now we are talking money.
No one wants to talk about how 2 CGC 9.8 SS Hulk 181s SOLD FOR $50K? Two weeks ago... That's not alarming to you? Why? Because it's not YOU, and it wasn't YOUR book you lost your shirt on? Whoever sold those books probably expected a return of $300,000 by all of the attitudes on these boards regarding how precious this book is, meanwhile they sold for a COLLECTIVE TOTAL OF $95,000. A loss of $205,000.

Not your money, but you can keep going on with how incredible these books are. No one is disputing how great comics are, and how we all love the hobby.

 

The difference between the housing market and stock market in comparison to the comic market, from what I can tell, is when there are oddities and inconsistencies, like pricing DOUBLING in a year, or a loss of 75% from an investment, in the housing market and stock market, people freak out trying to understand, even the minutia of details...

In the comic market, people gloss over it, and still talk about how healthy and bulletproof their investments are. It's dangerous.

[Pantodude]

Sometimes it seems like many posters entered the hobby just the past few years and are otherwise oblivious of IH181's history, engaging in knee-jerk reactions.  Even if we were to disregard the past two years as having been due to anomalous pandemic-related spending, there is nothing to suggest that IH181 won't continue its steady rise in value since 2010.  Yes, there has been a pandemic-related correction (to MANY books), and now also a looming recession, and yet the fact remains that as of today IH181 has significantly outperformed many (if not most) of those SA DC keys and GA keys since 2010, constantly defying the naysayers.  I'm not taking sides; just pointing out the facts.  Strong has been the demand for this one!    

So pre-pandemic, the verdict looked pretty clear that IH181 was a great long-term investment, despite the relatively large supply, due to the very high demand for this book.  It may very well still be a great long-term investment.  We shouldn't get caught up in this chaotic moment of the past two and next two years.  We may need to ride out the next two or three years before revisiting this issue.    

Edited October 21, 2022 by Pantodude

[D2]

On 10/21/2022 at 9:45 AM, Pantodude said:

Sometimes it seems like many posters entered the hobby just the past few years and are otherwise oblivious of IH181's history, engaging knee-jerk reactions.  Even if we were to disregard the past two years as having been due to anomalous pandemic-related spending, there is nothing to suggest that IH181 won't continue to it's steady and robust rise in value since 2010.  Yes, there has been a pandemic-related correction (to MANY books), and now also a looming recession, and yet the fact remains that as of today IH181 has significantly outperformed many (if not most) of those SA DC keys and GA keys since 2010, constantly defying the naysayers.  I'm not taking sides; just pointing out the facts.  Strong has been the demand for this one!    

So pre-pandemic, the verdict looked pretty clear that IH181 was a great long-term investment, despite the relatively large supply due to the very high demand for this book.  It may very well still be a great long-term investment.  We shouldn't get caught up in this chaotic moment of the past two and next two years.  We may need to ride out the next two or three years before revisiting this issue.    

I do believe that a copy of Hulk 181 is a sound investment, in general, and it will continue to climb, for the most part... I question its ultimate height, but that's not relevant.

But buying in during a peak, is a long time to wait for the book to match what your original buy-in was. A friend of mine bought their house last year for 1.7 and now it's valued at 1.2, and unknowingly, of course,  they bought at a peak. Now they need to wait for their house to be worth 1.7 again.