Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[COI]

On 10/21/2022 at 5:50 PM, MR. Pontoon said:

I don't swim in the 9.8 pool of fancy keys and don't follow them closely, but I would like to add in that from what I see, for about 5-6 years yellow label Hulk #181s were selling for about $25k. Those recent two sales at about $50k were double the previous average and the highest paid for a SS IH #181 to date unless I'm missing something.

I'm in agreement with COI but also think those last two sales don't look like a precipitous drop to me.

Good point.

Memory is short. Most books are doing fine relative to where they were in 2019, but there was a blip in 2021 and so now, the fact that books aren't going up week to week means that the hobby is dying or the market over-saturated in some people's minds.

[COI]

On 10/21/2022 at 6:13 PM, D2 said:

But I did address your main point. You just didn’t like the answer. 
People hoarded and continue to hoard Hulk 181. Further to another boardie’s point where people are trying to avoid flooding a market with that book. 
Hulk 181 is a more comparable book to ASM 300. 
 

You’re going to find more and more and more books of Hulk 181 as time goes on, and AF 15, and other books of that generation and earlier, are just, unavailable. 

 

While you've got your crystal ball out, even if I take your point that people hoarded H181 in the past and continue to hoard H181 today, why would hoarding stop in the future? If people like and believe in ASM 300 or H181 enough to hoard it even at today's high prices, what would get them to stop? Hoarding is a function of demand. 

I thought the same way you did 20 years ago, and I've been wrong for 20 years. It's easy to keep kicking the doomsday can down the road because you can never be proven wrong.

[valiantman]

On 10/21/2022 at 4:04 PM, squidmo2000 said:

On 10/21/2022 at 2:39 PM, valiantman said:

I created "CGCEMC" for this type of comparison. You're right that it's not enough to look at the price of books without including the census.

Comparing two books across any age is possible (at least for argument's sake), and if a book is too high, it won't sit in the right spot on this list: CGCEMC.com

Hulk #181 is currently sitting at #5, and AF #15 is at #4. Personally, I think AF #15 always belongs in the top 3, but it's not a calculation that cares about opinions. It's straight outta Compton Census (and GPA).

Great job,valiantman.......much easier to wrap my head around the graphs,total graded in each grade,and average grades.GPA should hire you,thanks......

One way to use the site is to compare any two books and ask yourself, "Would I rather have all the CGC graded copies of A or B?"  If you would pick A, but B has a higher CGCEMC calculation, then you're either in the minority or there's market change (likely) due for one or both.  When the majority "agrees" that all the CGC graded copies of A should be more valuable than all the CGC graded copies of B... eventually, the market agrees, too.

Theoretically, of course.

[D2]

On 10/21/2022 at 6:23 PM, COI said:

While you've got your crystal ball out, even if I take your point that people hoarded H181 in the past and continue to hoard H181 today, why would hoarding stop in the future? If people like and believe in ASM 300 or H181 enough to hoard it even at today's high prices, what would get them to stop? Hoarding is a function of demand. 

I thought the same way you did 20 years ago, and I've been wrong for 20 years. It's easy to keep kicking the doomsday can down the road because you can never be proven wrong.

This just sounds like someone that can’t afford comic prices to drop. 

[COI]

On 10/21/2022 at 7:01 PM, D2 said:

This just sounds like someone that can’t afford comic prices to drop. 

 Okay then.

This sounds like someone who can't have a discussion without making things personal.

[darkstar]

On 10/21/2022 at 5:13 PM, D2 said:

But I did address your main point. You just didn’t like the answer. 
People hoarded and continue to hoard Hulk 181. Further to another boardie’s point where people are trying to avoid flooding a market with that book. 
Hulk 181 is a more comparable book to ASM 300. 
 

You’re going to find more and more and more books of Hulk 181 as time goes on, and AF 15, and other books of that generation and earlier, are just, unavailable. 

 

People hoarding a book like that is a good thing, as it demonstrates confidence in the book as an asset. Compare that to the hot spec book where owners are always trying to offload the book before the music stops.

[Steven Valdez]

On 10/22/2022 at 7:26 AM, paqart said:

I feel the same way when people describe other people as "White", "Black", "Yellow", "Brown", "Red", or "of color". I can tell you as an artist, anatomist, photographer, and co-founder of an academy that all healthy human skin tones are a shade of orange. Some are less saturated than others and some have significantly lower luminosity but no matter where you are from, your skin is in the orange hue range. Some do lean slightly toward yellow or red but in both cases without leaving "orange".

Brown is a shade of orange? Also, some people are alabaster white. That's not a shade of anything.

Edited October 22, 2022 by Steven Valdez
additional comment.

[D2]

On 10/21/2022 at 7:21 PM, COI said:

 Okay then.

This sounds like someone who can't have a discussion without making things personal.

Lol! Well you either called me a schmuck, or a wizard…

So I’m not sure how you didn’t turn it personal. 

[musicmeta]

On 10/21/2022 at 3:09 PM, speedcake said:

For considerably much more minor keys than IH 181, seems like prices for many of them are not just leveling but falling? For example I'm looking at a Tales of Suspense #52 cgc 4.0 currently listed on the boards right now and was surprised when I checked GPA on it. pretty much  a free fall, as the last couple of sales are near 2019 prices, less than half what the book was selling for in the same grade last year.  It is just one example, but its a pretty "hot" key and a nice book in any silver age collection normally but got a huge bump during the covid madness and due to the film.

 

I'm going to just keep my TOS #52 in CGC 8.5 as I only paid $25.00 for it and I think around $35 to get it graded many years ago.  It would break my TOS run for one thing.

Edited October 22, 2022 by musicmeta

[paqart]

On 10/21/2022 at 9:25 PM, Steven Valdez said:

Brown is a shade of orange? Also, some people are alabaster white. That's not a shade of anything.

"Brown" can be yellow, orange, or red. Regardless, I'd like to think you didn't miss my point by dwelling on the fact that of the 3 hues that can be described as brown, one is orange. As for "alabaster white", unless the person lacks pigmentation, which would make the person extremely unusual and thus not part of this conversation, or it isn't what you think it is but a very low saturation high luminosity orange. And in case you think you have a gotcha in the wings related to people with pronouced violet or deep red hues in parts of their body, that kind of discoloration is not in the skin but the blood vessels underneath the skin, so it isn't the same thing.

 

Edited October 22, 2022 by paqart

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 10/21/2022 at 7:51 PM, darkstar said:

People hoarding a book like that is a good thing, as it demonstrates confidence in the book as an asset. Compare that to the hot spec book where owners are always trying to offload the book before the music stops.

I've never understood what people who truly hoard (I'm talking 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 copies of the same book) think their endgame is going to be.  Personally I don't think it ends well.

[Steven Valdez]

On 10/22/2022 at 1:02 PM, paqart said:

"Brown" can be yellow, orange, or red. Regardless, I'd like to think you didn't miss my point by dwelling on the fact that of the 3 hues that can be described as brown, one is orange. As for "alabaster white", unless the person lacks pigmentation, which would make the person extremely unusual and thus not part of this conversation, or it isn't what you think it is but a very low saturation high luminosity orange. And in case you think you have a gotcha in the wings related to people with pronouced violet or deep red hues in parts of their body, that kind of discoloration is not in the skin but the blood vessels underneath the skin, so it isn't the same thing.

 

So, everyone has a shade of orange skin.... m'kay. I got a high distinction in colour theory as part of my fine art degree. I know that brown, blue-black and yellow are not "shades of orange". As for white, it's not a low saturation of orange, it's a complete absence of any colour whatsoever. "Brown can be yellow, orange, or red." So my red car is actually brown... who knew.

[COI]

On 10/21/2022 at 9:48 PM, D2 said:

Lol! Well you either called me a schmuck, or a wizard…

So I’m not sure how you didn’t turn it personal. 

Nope, not personal. A little snarky maybe, but your argument about hoarding relies on predicting the future (a time where people no longer hoard), hence the crystal ball comment. It was an attack on your argument, not you.

[COI]

On 10/21/2022 at 10:35 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I've never understood what people who truly hoard (I'm talking 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 copies of the same book) think their endgame is going to be.  Personally I don't think it ends well.

It certainly puts you in a pinch if you need to turn them into cash quickly.

[valiantman]

On 10/21/2022 at 10:01 PM, COI said:

On 10/21/2022 at 9:35 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I've never understood what people who truly hoard (I'm talking 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 copies of the same book) think their endgame is going to be.  Personally I don't think it ends well.

It certainly puts you in a pinch if you need to turn them into cash quickly.

I don't think anyone who hoards is looking at a liquidation outcome.

Consider that 615 copies of CGC graded Hulk #181 have sold in the past year.  If a stack of 52 slabs of Hulk #181 were hoarded for a few years up until 2012, they could be sold weekly in 2022 and only increase the yearly volume by 8.5%.

A corresponding drop of 8.5% due to this "flood" of additional copies would be pretty easy to take, since the prices of Hulk #181 are up about 750% since 2012.

Spending about $600 per slab of Hulk #181, averaging about a CGC 6.0, hoarding 52 copies would have cost $31,200 in 2012 (and buying in earlier years, cheaper).

Dropping those into the market in 2022, one per week, would be $4,500 each... and if we assume that 8.5% drop in prices due to this "flood" of new copies, that grosses $214,000 in one year.

Minus the $31,200 spent, nets $182,800 in one year... from hoarding a popular (but very common) book in an average CGC grade and holding for 10 years.

I don't know what "endgame" would be needed to qualify for "ending well", but I'd say sitting at home, listing one book a week, and netting $182,800 on a 10-year old $31,200 investment is pretty good.

Selling them over 52 weeks in 2021 would have netted closer to $250,000, so the downturn in the market during 2022 has hurt this theoretical hoarder... but the "pain" described above is still $180K instead of $250K.

If I remember correctly, the "experts" on this website would have strongly opposed the idea that buying 52 copies of an average grade of Hulk #181 at 2012 prices would end well.

The market has always been about to crash, hasn't it? "Kiss that $31,200 goodbye", they would have said.  Instead, those experts would have been $182,800 worth of wrong.

Edited October 22, 2022 by valiantman

[paqart]

On 10/21/2022 at 10:50 PM, Steven Valdez said:

So, everyone has a shade of orange skin.... m'kay. I got a high distinction in colour theory as part of my fine art degree. I know that brown, blue-black and yellow are not "shades of orange". As for white, it's not a low saturation of orange, it's a complete absence of any colour whatsoever. "Brown can be yellow, orange, or red." So my red car is actually brown... who knew.

Maybe you need to go back to your studies. It isn't a super important point anyway, just a pet peeve of mine that slight differences in hue are described as completely different colors, as you are doing. Sometimes, what you "know" is wrong. As for "white", anything less than blinding full intensity light will be gray or a very low saturation color that to less sensitive people might be described as a "color cast" gray when all that means is that it isn't gray. And "brown" is in effect a brand name, not the name of a hue (color). Talking about it as if it is a single hue is like saying that cats, bears, and elephants are the same because they are all mammals. The term simply isn't specific enough for the way you are using it.

[paqart]

On 10/21/2022 at 11:31 PM, valiantman said:

I don't think anyone who hoards is looking at a liquidation outcome.

Consider that 615 copies of CGC graded Hulk #181 have sold in the past year.  If a stack of 52 slabs of Hulk #181 were hoarded for a few years up until 2012, they could be sold weekly in 2022 and only increase the yearly volume by 8.5%.

A corresponding drop of 8.5% due to this "flood" of additional copies would be pretty easy to take, since the prices of Hulk #181 are up about 750% since 2012.

Spending about $600 per slab of Hulk #181, averaging about a CGC 6.0, hoarding 52 copies would have cost $31,200 in 2012 (and buying in earlier years, cheaper).

Dropping those into the market in 2022, one per week, would be $4,500 each... and if we assume that 8.5% drop in prices due to this "flood" of new copies, that grosses $214,000 in one year.

Minus the $31,200 spent, nets $182,800 in one year... from hoarding a popular (but very common) book in an average CGC grade and holding for 10 years.

I don't know what "endgame" would be needed to qualify for "ending well", but I'd say sitting at home, listing one book a week, and netting $182,800 on a 10-year old $31,200 investment is pretty good.

Selling them over 52 weeks in 2021 would have netted closer to $250,000, so the downturn in the market during 2022 has hurt this theoretical hoarder... but the "pain" described above is still $180K instead of $250K.

If I remember correctly, the "experts" on this website would have strongly opposed the idea that buying 52 copies of an average grade of Hulk #181 at 2012 prices would end well.

The market has always been about to crash, hasn't it? "Kiss that $31,200 goodbye", they would have said.  Instead, those experts would have been $182,800 worth of wrong.

I remember some of the people in another thread mocking some of my newsstand purchases on the basis that newsstands weren't a big deal. They said "nobody cares" about them and made other remarks in a similar vein. Today I'm sitting on a few of the specific comics they made fun of, and they are now worth a lot more than I paid, enough for some to take notice. For instance, the $80 for 2 copies of Hulk (2008) #1, 1 direct (9.8) and 1 newsstand (9.4). Or the 11 ASM V2 #30's I picked up, none of which cost more than $20, 2 of which are slabbed 9.8's, another is a 9.6, and the rest haven't been submitted yet. Some things probably aren't a good idea to buy but it really depends on the price. I was surprised recently to discover how pricey even a low grade copy of any issue of Harvey's Chamber of Chills could be. If someone had asked me if a 9.8 copy of #23 was worth $20k, I would have said "probably not" but would have discovered pretty quickly that it is a normal price for that comic. If any of those newsstand naysayers had done even a minimal amount of research, they would have similarly discovered that newsstands are not such a bad bet after all.
 

[Gregd]

On 10/21/2022 at 11:31 PM, valiantman said:

I don't think anyone who hoards is looking at a liquidation outcome.

Consider that 615 copies of CGC graded Hulk #181 have sold in the past year.  If a stack of 52 slabs of Hulk #181 were hoarded for a few years up until 2012, they could be sold weekly in 2022 and only increase the yearly volume by 8.5%.

A corresponding drop of 8.5% due to this "flood" of additional copies would be pretty easy to take, since the prices of Hulk #181 are up about 750% since 2012.

Spending about $600 per slab of Hulk #181, averaging about a CGC 6.0, hoarding 52 copies would have cost $31,200 in 2012 (and buying in earlier years, cheaper).

Dropping those into the market in 2022, one per week, would be $4,500 each... and if we assume that 8.5% drop in prices due to this "flood" of new copies, that grosses $214,000 in one year.

Minus the $31,200 spent, nets $182,800 in one year... from hoarding a popular (but very common) book in an average CGC grade and holding for 10 years.

I don't know what "endgame" would be needed to qualify for "ending well", but I'd say sitting at home, listing one book a week, and netting $182,800 on a 10-year old $31,200 investment is pretty good.

Selling them over 52 weeks in 2021 would have netted closer to $250,000, so the downturn in the market during 2022 has hurt this theoretical hoarder... but the "pain" described above is still $180K instead of $250K.

If I remember correctly, the "experts" on this website would have strongly opposed the idea that buying 52 copies of an average grade of Hulk #181 at 2012 prices would end well.

The market has always been about to crash, hasn't it? "Kiss that $31,200 goodbye", they would have said.  Instead, those experts would have been $182,800 worth of wrong.

Exactly 👍

[valiantman]

On 10/21/2022 at 11:22 PM, paqart said:

I remember some of the people in another thread mocking some of my newsstand purchases on the basis that newsstands weren't a big deal. They said "nobody cares" about them and made other remarks in a similar vein.

The translation then, as well as now, is "I don't have that many newsstands, I don't know of a source for me to get them, and I really hope people don't start caring about the difference because I won't personally benefit from an increase in factual newsstand information."

It is also true that the translation of "Newsstands are super rare, they're all less than 1%, they should be worth a fortune" is actually "I do have a few newsstands, and even though they're not as rare as I'm saying they are, I just need a few people to believe me and I'll be able to cash in big time."

(You can also substitute the word "Variants" where I've used "Newsstands" in these sentences.)

Understanding what is likely true versus what is likely being said based upon personal preference (for or against) is the key.

Find reliable sources of information and stick with them... especially sources that don't mind corrections when more evidence is presented. 

Unfortunately for both groups above, louder voices repeating the same things based upon personal preferences do not count as evidence.

Edited October 22, 2022 by valiantman

[Steven Valdez]

On 10/22/2022 at 3:31 PM, valiantman said:

The translation then, as well as now, is "I don't have that many newsstands, I don't know of a source for me to get them, and I really hope people don't start caring about the difference because I won't personally benefit from an increase in factual newsstand information."

It is also true that the translation of "Newsstands are super rare, they're all less than 1%, they should be worth a fortune" is actually "I do have a few newsstands, and even though they're not as rare as I'm saying they are, I just need a few people to believe me and I'll be able to cash in big time."

(You can also substitute the word "Variants" where I've used "Newsstands" in these sentences.)

Understanding what is likely true versus what is likely being said based upon personal preference (for or against) is the key.

Find reliable sources of information and stick with them... especially sources that don't mind corrections when more evidence is presented. 

Unfortunately for both groups above, louder voices repeating the same things based upon personal preferences do not count as evidence.

Collecting newsstand 'variants' reminds me of those guys who collect editions of records based on their slightly differing matrix numbers and not the actual music they contain. It's where things start getting creepy.