Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[Courageous Cat]

On 2/2/2023 at 9:59 AM, october said:

You know what a Fugazzi is?

 

specialty head cheese? 

[october]

[Rob]

On 2/2/2023 at 1:19 AM, lou_fine said:

Same question then when the market is going up........why would anybody be selling when there is a good chance they can get more money later? 

You can never really tell when the market is at a top or when the market has hit bottom, or as another boardie here put it in this case here:  

 

 

On 2/2/2023 at 8:08 AM, EastEnd1 said:

It's a truism of investing... if you're trying to time the bottom, you're almost sure to miss it.  Prudent investors "ladder"... buy and/or sell periodically through all the ups and downs.

OK, I get that, but we're not talking about investments with a history of high volatility.  Outside of this bubble we're in, most comics stayed pretty flat for years, with a steady increase YoY.  Take the example below (X-men #1 in 4.0).  The price has been on a steady decline for the last 12 months.  I don't need to time the bottom perfectly, but I do know that all signs point to it being cheaper next month.

On 2/2/2023 at 7:09 AM, Tec-Tac-Toe said:

"If you are primarily a collector: Buy what you like when you can afford it, this way you cannot lose." Indeed!

Well, I can afford quite a bit.  But I'm not paying $10k for a comic that I can likely get cheaper in a few months.  That's just not smart.  Six months ago someone paid $15k for this comic and last month it sold for $10k.  Had he waited, he could have had $5k to spend on another comic.  My money is on it dropping again in the next few months, and I'll reference this post to come back in March to gloat or eat crow. 

My theory is that some collectors (speculators) think prices are going to skyrocket again, and they don't want to miss out.  As for me, I'm waiting it out.

 

Edited February 2, 2023 by Rob

[Tec-Tac-Toe]

On 2/2/2023 at 2:35 PM, Rob said:

 

OK, I get that, but we're not talking about investments with a history of high volatility.  Outside of this bubble we're in, most comics stayed pretty flat for years, with a steady increase YoY.  Take the example below (X-men #1 in 4.0).  The price has been on a steady decline for the last 12 months.  I don't need to time the bottom perfectly, but I do know that all signs point to it being cheaper next month.

Well, I can afford quite a bit.  But I'm not paying $10k for a comic that I can likely get cheaper in a few months.  That's just not smart.  Six months ago someone paid $15k for this comic and last month it sold for $10k.  Had he waited, he could have had $5k to spend on another comic.  My money is on it dropping again in the next few months, and I'll reference this post to come back in March to gloat or eat crow. 

My theory is that some collectors (speculators) think prices are going to skyrocket again, and they don't want to miss out.  As for me, I'm waiting it out.

 

I was responding to pickycollector's post and I do not believe that he was responding to one of your posts. Clearly, however, he will determine that.

[GrasshopperFF]

On 2/2/2023 at 2:35 PM, Rob said:

 

OK, I get that, but we're not talking about investments with a history of high volatility.  Outside of this bubble we're in, most comics stayed pretty flat for years, with a steady increase YoY.  Take the example below (X-men #1 in 4.0).  The price has been on a steady decline for the last 12 months.  I don't need to time the bottom perfectly, but I do know that all signs point to it being cheaper next month.

Well, I can afford quite a bit.  But I'm not paying $10k for a comic that I can likely get cheaper in a few months.  That's just not smart.  Six months ago someone paid $15k for this comic and last month it sold for $10k.  Had he waited, he could have had $5k to spend on another comic.  My money is on it dropping again in the next few months, and I'll reference this post to come back in March to gloat or eat crow. 

My theory is that some collectors (speculators) think prices are going to skyrocket again, and they don't want to miss out.  As for me, I'm waiting it out.

 

Don’t wait too long to pick up an X-Men #1. I totally agree with your reasoning, mainly because I am also targeting X-Men #1. Like most boardies are saying: It is hard to predict the bottom. I don’t think I’m the only other looking to score an X-Men #1. We may regret not getting it at $10k now … Amazon’s stock was at $82 share 2 months ago. Now it’s over $110. Get what you can when you can and don’t look back!!

[pickycollector]

Nobody has a crystal ball and nobody can know in advance the exact time of a bottom nor a top, in comics or in any other kind of market. However, when I see dark clouds in the sky, I can assume that the probability of raining is higher although I cannot know for sure if it will rain indeed nor when.

I am first a collector with comics but for other kinds of investments, I consider investment decision a bit like a poker game. Playing chess is pure calculations (you have all information in front of you), gambling is pure hazard (you have zero information) but playing poker is a mix of hazard and calculations (you have partial information) and for me very similar to markets.

I believe strongly in one thing though: if you want to do better than the average, you need to do different than the average.

Edited February 2, 2023 by pickycollector

[silverseeker]

On 2/2/2023 at 7:16 AM, MAR1979 said:

Great album!

[lostboys]

Im gobsmacked at the prices Ebay sellers are putting on their newly signed McFarlane books.

Do they seriously expect to sell a 9.8 Spawn 301 for $300+ just because it has a sloppy Todd sig and a custom Spawn label???

 

 

[Rob]

On 2/2/2023 at 12:43 PM, Tec-Tac-Toe said:

I was responding to pickycollector's post and I do not believe that he was responding to one of your posts. Clearly, however, he will determine that.

Sorry, didn't mean to misquote you.  Just meant to reply to the statement.

 

On 2/2/2023 at 12:51 PM, GrasshopperFF said:

Don’t wait too long to pick up an X-Men #1. I totally agree with your reasoning, mainly because I am also targeting X-Men #1. Like most boardies are saying: It is hard to predict the bottom. I don’t think I’m the only other looking to score an X-Men #1. We may regret not getting it at $10k now … Amazon’s stock was at $82 share 2 months ago. Now it’s over $110. Get what you can when you can and don’t look back!!

I don't think comics are as volatile as stocks (save for this bubble).  I think once we're out of the pandemic bubble and the market comes back down to earth, we'll see the typical 3-10% increases per year that we've always seen.  So if this book bottoms out at $6000, we should be able to get it for $6000-$7000 for several months.  Look at the 20 year chart I posted.  Most titles have a similar trend.  No crazy spikes like we saw in the pandemic, for the last 20 years, and probably longer.  (Exception to this would be speculative rises due to movie announcements, which would apply to X-Men #1 as they should get an MCU movie soon.  So maybe I picked a poor title to make my point )

Edited February 2, 2023 by Rob

[MAR1979]

On 2/2/2023 at 3:10 PM, lostboys said:

Im gobsmacked at the prices Ebay sellers are putting on their newly signed McFarlane books.

Do they seriously expect to sell a 9.8 Spawn 301 for $300+ just because it has a sloppy Todd sig and a custom Spawn label???

 

 

Some sellers, including I'm sure some that post here, believe they are always entitled to pandemic bubble prices . Well, they are not! and likley never were.  Leaner and leaner times are a comin'

 

BTW: reddit is full of threads and posts of folks whining about losses on Comic Books. Most of those who were paying top bubble prices have or will exit the hobby, it will be a generation to replace all those rube/suckers.  Of course dealers-sellers with true business ability know steady cash flow is paramount over getting top dollar on every item.

Edited February 2, 2023 by MAR1979

[FormerReader]

On 2/2/2023 at 2:35 PM, Rob said:

 

OK, I get that, but we're not talking about investments with a history of high volatility.  Outside of this bubble we're in, most comics stayed pretty flat for years, with a steady increase YoY.  Take the example below (X-men #1 in 4.0).  The price has been on a steady decline for the last 12 months.  I don't need to time the bottom perfectly, but I do know that all signs point to it being cheaper next month.

Well, I can afford quite a bit.  But I'm not paying $10k for a comic that I can likely get cheaper in a few months.  That's just not smart.  Six months ago someone paid $15k for this comic and last month it sold for $10k.  Had he waited, he could have had $5k to spend on another comic.  My money is on it dropping again in the next few months, and I'll reference this post to come back in March to gloat or eat crow. 

My theory is that some collectors (speculators) think prices are going to skyrocket again, and they don't want to miss out.  As for me, I'm waiting it out.

 

Thank you. I’ve been wanting to buy a X-men 1 in 4.0 for several years, but I’m not paying COVID prices. This comic was never really worth $20k people who think the price is going back up are fooling themselves. I’m not buying a comic that historical data shows is still overvalued. If I’m wrong and I miss out I don’t care.  It’s only a comic book.

[lou_fine]

On 2/2/2023 at 1:09 PM, MAR1979 said:

BTW: reddit is full of threads and posts of folks whining about losses on Comic Books. Most of those who were paying top bubble prices have or will exit the hobby, it will be a generation to replace all those rube/suckers. 

I believe it really depends on what types of comic books these buyers were purchasing during the pandemic, especially since a large majority of the vintage collectible comic books that don't tend to come to market very often has not only NOT fallen in price, but have actually continue their price movement upwards to this current point in time.  

Now, if you are referring to the so-called hot but readily available books from the more recent BA and CA time periods and even some from the SA where you see multiple copies in various grades showing up in every single auction ad infinitum with no end in sight, these are indeed falling because they probably shouldn't have shot up so high in the first place due to their overwhelming supply.    

Edited February 3, 2023 by lou_fine

[MAR1979]

On 2/2/2023 at 6:56 PM, lou_fine said:

I believe it really depends on what types of comic books these buyers were purchasing during the pandemic, especially since a large majority of the vintage collectible comic books that don't tend to come to market very often has not only NOT fallen in price, but have actually continue their price movement upwards to this current point in time.  

Now, if you are referring to the so-called hot but readily available books from the more recent BA and CA time periods and even some from the SA where you see multiple copies in various grades showing up in every single auction ad infinitum with no end in sight, these are indeed falling because they probably shouldn't have shot up so high in the first place due to their overwhelming supply.    

Hey,

I totally Agree, BUT as noted in my sig my posts never not refer to Silver or older unless explicitly stated.

It is a large hobby in terms of Era's and Segments so no one statement will ever fit all but on the whole the hobby falling downwards since the bubble burst and if history is any lesson the recovery will be measure in decade(s).  To the Social Media Crowd, Comics have now become so 2021, they are whining about lo$$es and have moved or are moving on, for real collectors this is positive.

IMHO life blood of the hobby are books under 1k or more realistically under $500 (or a lower estimation) it is certainly not books like AF15 , X-Men 1 (1963) or Superman 1 (1939) for example.  The life blood ain't flowing the way it used to and won't for years and year to come. Look how long it took to recover from the 90's bust.  Going forwards any recovery will be need to be done with significantly less collectors than in past.

 

 

Edited February 26, 2023 by MAR1979

[COI]

On 2/2/2023 at 2:35 PM, Rob said:

 

OK, I get that, but we're not talking about investments with a history of high volatility.  Outside of this bubble we're in, most comics stayed pretty flat for years, with a steady increase YoY.  Take the example below (X-men #1 in 4.0).  The price has been on a steady decline for the last 12 months.  I don't need to time the bottom perfectly, but I do know that all signs point to it being cheaper next month.

Well, I can afford quite a bit.  But I'm not paying $10k for a comic that I can likely get cheaper in a few months.  That's just not smart.  Six months ago someone paid $15k for this comic and last month it sold for $10k.  Had he waited, he could have had $5k to spend on another comic.  My money is on it dropping again in the next few months, and I'll reference this post to come back in March to gloat or eat crow. 

My theory is that some collectors (speculators) think prices are going to skyrocket again, and they don't want to miss out.  As for me, I'm waiting it out.

 

If the powers granted by hindsight could be used to accurately predict the future, we'd all be geniuses. And we'd all be rich. At some point you have to make a move, and there are always reasons to hesitate if that's your temperament. 

What I see when I look at that chart is that something drastically changed in 2021, and based on that change, I have no reason to believe that all of that data from 2002 to 2018 will be very relevant going forward. Whatever the market is now and wherever it's heading, it's a fundamentally different thing than it was in 2004.

[musicmeta]

On 2/2/2023 at 9:16 AM, MAR1979 said:

Love this band...Have nearly all of their albums!  

[Vixom]

On 2/2/2023 at 11:42 PM, COI said:

If the powers granted by hindsight could be used to accurately predict the future, we'd all be geniuses. And we'd all be rich. At some point you have to make a move, and there are always reasons to hesitate if that's your temperament. 

What I see when I look at that chart is that something drastically changed in 2021, and based on that change, I have no reason to believe that all of that data from 2002 to 2018 will be very relevant going forward. Whatever the market is now and wherever it's heading, it's a fundamentally different thing than it was in 2004.

Anything prior to 2012 is irrelevant. That's when enough people discovered speculation and flipping. Combine that with all the movies and shows. Market completely changed. 2020 2021 is just as irrelevant. 2019 is the year. Any natural growth is hindered by inflation. 

[Vixom]

No crystal ball needed. Chances are in the next month months or even year, prices will stay the same or go down. If they do go up it won't be anymore than your solid investments. 

1 huge exception. If you are looking at something that has a boom potential. Will books go down enough to justify the risk? That's how you can get hurt. Everyone knew the x-men and most watched the fox movies. Disney buys fox and boom. Some big announcement with them or ff4  and fomo hits. Any book with a 1st appearance that hasn't shown up anywhere. A doctor aphra trailer comes out of nowhere and it doubles in value over night. Most books aren't going anywhere price wise. 

[Westy Steve]

On 2/2/2023 at 10:08 AM, EastEnd1 said:

It's a truism of investing... if you're trying to time the bottom, you're almost sure to miss it.  Prudent investors "ladder"... buy and/or sell periodically through all the ups and downs.

There is a lot of wisdom in what you’re saying. And dollar cost averaging definitely works in investing. But another method that can be effective  is just to buy (blue chips) when everybody is afraid. If people believe right now blood is on the streets and the prices will be lower next month, then right now is precisely the time to buy.  You may not catch the exact bottom but it’s still better than a random purchase.

Also, for what it’s worth, with stocks a good rule of thumb is that they will overshoot to the upside and the downside by approximately 1/3. Like if a stock is in $100 and some new news comes out where it shoots up to $200, it will drop down and eventually settle at $166. However just like it went too high, it will also go below $166 temporarily until it settles at $166 because it will overshoot the target loss of $33 by 1/3 (I.e. an extra $11) therefore maybe getting down to $155 before bouncing back to $166 and settling.  In my humble opinion we have already overshot to the downside where we will settle.  But even if I’m wrong about that, I feel now is a good time to buy because of all of the fear.

Edited February 3, 2023 by Westy Steve

[lou_fine]

On 2/2/2023 at 10:21 PM, Westy Steve said:

In my humble opinion we have already overshot to the downside where we will settle.  But even if I’m wrong about that, I feel now is a good time to buy because of all of the fear.

Just a question for you with respect to your comment here...........are you talking about stocks or comic books here or are you talking about both?  

[MAR1979]

On 2/3/2023 at 3:16 AM, lou_fine said:

Just a question for you with respect to your comment here...........are you talking about stocks or comic books here or are you talking about both?  

A great point.

Most of the masses who entered the Comic hobby during the pandemic bubble have left or are leaving in droves it will be at least a decade perhaps 2 before there are enough fresh Rubes/Rookies/Neophytes/Suckers to enter the hobby for another across the board boom. 

Stock market is whole different thing and it will recover in weeks or months possibly a year. 

Stock Market to Comic Market is apples to oranges or more like apples to burgers.


 

Edited February 3, 2023 by MAR1979