Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[Microchip]

On 1/29/2023 at 6:20 AM, lizards2 said:

Mothballs and other substances.

FlamingTelepath sold off a collection that just reeked about 10-12  years ago. I recently upgraded one of them, and when I took that book out of the bag, I knew immediately where that book came from. I ended up throwing out the M2, Fullback and microchamber paper, as all of it just reeked. I think the books were enclosed somewhere with mothballs to keep the bugs away from them.

Sounds about right.

[DC#]

Here is very small sample from 1/29 Heritage and Jan ComicLink Session 3 (titles through letter "I").    

 

 

[lou_fine]

On 1/28/2023 at 5:51 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

On 1/28/2023 at 3:54 PM, southern cross said:

Seriously I've been watching heritage and haven't seen too much of a dip in prices realized. Maybe it's the books that I'm looking at and wonder if I'll notice it more in the future.

Agree, Heritage results remain pretty strong.

If you are talking rom a BA and CA point of view, then clearly the both of you are not looking close enough at the previous auction results then. 

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 1/30/2023 at 7:35 PM, lou_fine said:

If you are talking rom a BA and CA point of view, then clearly the both of you are not looking close enough at the previous auction results then. 

I just look at what I bid on, and I know the market for those books very, very, very well.  Thanks.

[lou_fine]

On 1/30/2023 at 5:12 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I just look at what I bid on, and I know the market for those books very, very, very well.  Thanks.

I was speaking more from a general POV, whereas of course there are clearly exceptions to the general trend when it comes to specific books. 

As to your earlier point that Heritage results remain pretty strong, are you saying that the books which you bid on and know very well are going at a lower price point on CL as compared to what they are going for on Heritage?  

[Microchip]

On 1/31/2023 at 3:07 PM, lou_fine said:

I was speaking more from a general POV, whereas of course there are clearly exceptions to the general trend when it comes to specific books. 

As to your earlier point that Heritage results remain pretty strong, are you saying that the books which you bid on and know very well are going at a lower price point on CL as compared to what they are going for on Heritage?  

Not speak for someone else, but it's well known Sweet Lou is looking almost exclusively looking at 9.4 to 9.6 W pages books.   Every book exists in this grade range outside of the GA, so his insights are applicable to the majority of us here, without caveats.   His collection interests are very broad, which is rare these days for high grade collectors.

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 1/30/2023 at 11:07 PM, lou_fine said:

I was speaking more from a general POV, whereas of course there are clearly exceptions to the general trend when it comes to specific books. 

As to your earlier point that Heritage results remain pretty strong, are you saying that the books which you bid on and know very well are going at a lower price point on CL as compared to what they are going for on Heritage?  

I didn't interpret your post as "a general POV" because the language you used was very personal.  When you say something like "clearly the both of you are not looking close enough ..." it sure comes across like a personally directed criticism.  If that's not your intent, then I would suggest reading what you're about to post before clicking the button, and asking yourself how the person you're quoting is likely to interpret the words.  

Moving on ...

In your post you also combined BA and CA -- without getting into debates on the precise boundaries of these arbitrary ages, I'll just clarify that for my collecting goals, "BA" means 15- and 20-cent Marvels in 9.6 WP while "CA" is outside my collecting interest (or more accurately, any CA books I think are worth slabbing, which isn't many, I got in 9.8 WP a long time ago).

You're asking me to compare Heritage and ComicLink, and I'll just point out that all three major auction houses (throwing in ComicConnect as well) have a tiered system whereby they feature certain "blue chip" books in special auctions, or in special "sessions" to kick off an auction, and the rest of the books are offered separately.  All three do a very good job of promoting their "featured" books, so you're not likely to find bargains in any of those sessions.  But when I want a book badly enough, I will get in there and swing for the fences -- and while I may end up paying through the nose, certain of these books are pretty much never brought to the market in any venue other than a featured auction at one of the three big houses.

In my experience, a "regular" Heritage auction (held weekly, Sunday/Monday) is more likely to have the 9.6 WP SA / BA run filler books I am looking for than either of the other two houses, with ComicLink a strong second place.  Heritage has been sprinkling in their "Oregon Coast collection" books over the past year or two, plus there are plenty of others.  On the other extreme, a "regular" ComicConnect auction is the weakest of the three, generally full of low-to-mid grade books, raw books, group lots, and other stuff I have no interest in.  I'm glad they have an automated want list service because otherwise I would not be interested in picking through all that to find something I want.  With ComicLink it's more subtle -- without really highlighting it, they segment even their "regular" auctions so that the first week generally has the highest-value material, then they will start at the beginning of the alphabet again and run through the "lesser" material.  Again, there's a want list service that makes sure I don't miss anything but I do usually comb through the "lesser" stuff because sometimes there's a nice surprise there and I will go for it.

And lastly, a comment about auction format.  With ComicLink, you take your best shot and when time runs out, it's over. That means you at least have a chance of laying in the weeds and pouncing and getting a bargain.  On the other hand, both Heritage and ComicConnect allow for back-and forth which means there is no hiding.  If someone else wants that book, they have the option of not letting you get away until they've made you pay just a bit more than their absolute max.

 

So yes, I have found that Heritage auctions are more likely to cost me more money when I choose to bid.  That's just my experience, make of it what you will.

[1Cool]

On 1/30/2023 at 1:57 PM, DC# said:

Here is very small sample from 1/29 Heritage and Jan ComicLink Session 3 (titles through letter "I").    

 

 

Sounds about right - 13 up, 4 stay the same and 33 down from last sale.  Are people really debating if prices are dropping across the board?  At this point it just isn't an argument worth having since it's pretty obvious for 95 - 99% of all books

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 1/31/2023 at 8:42 AM, 1Cool said:

Sounds about right - 13 up, 4 stay the same and 33 down from last sale.  Are people really debating if prices are dropping across the board?  At this point it just isn't an argument worth having since it's pretty obvious for 95 - 99% of all books

I'm definitely not debating the larger trend, but I would just note that the list of books you quoted doesn't contain a single true blue chip book.  There are some low-grade mega keys (ASM #1, DD #1, FF #5, Hulk #1 ...) and some high grade books that were notoriously overvalued (ASM #129 and #300, Iron Fist #14, etc.).  GSX #1 is an odd case because it definitely got overheated and is in a rut now, but it's definitely got another round of movie hype coming at some point in the future.  Avengers #8 is riding that wave as we speak, hard to say if it's going to keep its value, as Iron Man #55 is another book that's currently down from previous highs.

So in summary, I agree about your "95 - 99% of all books" statement.  The challenge for me as a buyer is when I encounter a seller (usually on eBay) who thinks his random issue of Sub-Mariner in 9.6 WP is in that 1 - 4% and is asking for triple FMV.  

[1Cool]

On 1/31/2023 at 9:17 AM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I'm definitely not debating the larger trend, but I would just note that the list of books you quoted doesn't contain a single true blue chip book.  There are some low-grade mega keys (ASM #1, DD #1, FF #5, Hulk #1 ...) and some high grade books that were notoriously overvalued (ASM #129 and #300, Iron Fist #14, etc.).  GSX #1 is an odd case because it definitely got overheated and is in a rut now, but it's definitely got another round of movie hype coming at some point in the future.  Avengers #8 is riding that wave as we speak, hard to say if it's going to keep its value, as Iron Man #55 is another book that's currently down from previous highs.

So in summary, I agree about your "95 - 99% of all books" statement.  The challenge for me as a buyer is when I encounter a seller (usually on eBay) who thinks his random issue of Sub-Mariner in 9.6 WP is in that 1 - 4% and is asking for triple FMV.  

If Hulk 1s and Fantastic Four 5s and Spider-Man 1s are not blue chip books then you are operating in an entirely different world then I occupy I can see why people would not call GI Joe 1 or Hulk 271 as true blue chip keys but there was definitely some top tier books in that auction and even those have dropped quite a bit (even back to 2019 levels for some books).  But even these second tier books are still top 5% of the hobby in terms of demand and key status.  Let me tell you that the rest of the 95% are even doing worse in terms of price pull back. 

Edited January 31, 2023 by 1Cool

[bc]

As a comparison to another collectibles market (cars), the Barrett-Jackson Scottsdale auction that ended this past weekend raked in almost $200 Million.

https://www.barrett-jackson.com/Media/Home/Reader/2023-scottsdale-auction-day-9/

Earlier this month, Mecum sold over $250 Million in one of their auctions.

Both were records.

Between just these 2 auction houses, nearly half a Billion dollars in collectible cars & trucks were sold this month alone - don't think our little hobby does that in an entire year!

-bc

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 1/31/2023 at 10:07 AM, 1Cool said:

If Hulk 1s and Fantastic Four 5s and Spider-Man 1s are not blue chip books then you are operating in an entirely different world then I occupy I can see why people would not call GI Joe 1 or Hulk 271 as true blue chip keys but there was definitely some top tier books in that auction and even those have dropped quite a bit (even back to 2019 levels for some books).  But even these second tier books are still top 5% of the hobby in terms of demand and key status.  Let me tell you that the rest of the 95% are even doing worse in terms of price pull back. 

I called those books "mega keys" which they definitely are!  Any of those books is a worthy addition to any collection regardless of grade, though (without commenting on any particular copy) I do believe it's very important to choose well and make sure you get a copy that is "good for the grade."  Variations in the specific defects that make two different copies a 4.0 can make a big difference in overall appeal (and hammer price).

I'm just reserving the term "blue chips" for higher grade examples where the census numbers get much lower.  Generally speaking, I think higher supply means more susceptibility to sudden and sustained drops in FMV.

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 1/31/2023 at 10:25 AM, bc said:

As a comparison to another collectibles market (cars), the Barrett-Jackson Scottsdale auction that ended this past weekend raked in almost $200 Million.

https://www.barrett-jackson.com/Media/Home/Reader/2023-scottsdale-auction-day-9/

Earlier this month, Mecum sold over $250 Million in one of their auctions.

Both were records.

Between just these 2 auction houses, nearly half a Billion dollars in collectible cars & trucks were sold this month alone - don't think our little hobby does that in an entire year!

-bc

Yeah that market is a whole different beast!

At least with comics people don't take their 5- and 6- and even 7-figure collectibles out for a spin and risk totaling them.    Just imagine if you knew that the census number for that rare collectible you own could suddenly go down because some other guy had a very bad day on the race track!

[october]

I think we need to be careful with conflating "Marvel keys and movie spec books" with the "comic market". They aren't the same thing and not every piece of the overall comic market is trending down. A lot of DCs are doing fine, many, many golden age books are going up...some WAY up.

Believe it or not, there is a larger hobby out there beyond Spider-Man keys and Copper Age spec books, not that you'd know by reading some of these posts or watching the same dorks on YouTube talking about the same tired stuff.

Edited January 31, 2023 by october

[blazingbob]

On 1/31/2023 at 2:59 PM, october said:

I think we need to be careful with conflating "Marvel keys and movie spec books" with the "comic market". They aren't the same thing and not every piece of the overall comic market is trending down. A lot of DCs are doing fine, many, many golden age books are going up...some WAY up.

Believe it or not, there is a larger hobby out there beyond Spider-Man keys and Copper Age spec books, not that you'd know by reading some of these posts or watching the same dorks on YouTube talking about the same tired stuff.

You mean Comic News Network isn't the real news?  Do I need to question Sweet Comic Lou Dobbs on his reporting?

What exactly is a DORK

Don't Often Requiring Knowledge

Edited January 31, 2023 by blazingbob

[lou_fine]

On 1/31/2023 at 5:28 AM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I didn't interpret your post as "a general POV" because the language you used was very personal.  When you say something like "clearly the both of you are not looking close enough ..." it sure comes across like a personally directed criticism. 

No, most definitely more of an overall general comment as to how the BA and CA markets are currently doing as compared to the 2021 and early 2022 pandemic time period.  Absolutely nothing personal at all as I do not know your personal collecting strategy/interests or speaking to any particular book in question, as I was really commenting more so on both  @southern cross and your opinions that Heritage auction results are not showing much of a dip and are actually remaining pretty strong. 

With response to a long time boardie who had asked last week if BA and CA prices were in fact really actually dropping, I had pulled off a select listing of auction results from the Heritage Sunday/Monday auction for the previous weekend, and the answer was a definite YES, although it should be pointed out that they are clearly still higher than where they were prior to the pandemic time period: 

On 1/18/2023 at 8:56 PM, lou_fine said:

Ask and ye shall receive.  Took a quick look at some of the Heritage weekend auction prices and I would definitely say that there are now a whole lot more relatively easy to find, but once so-called hot BA and CA books that WERE selling at strong prices during 2021/22 that are NOW selling for not only big discounts to their recent irrational exuberant highs, but also at noticeable discounts to their condition guide values, including some of the following:  

 

1)  ASM 300 in CGC 9.2 sold for $516 or at only 64.5% to condition guide of $800 and a Heritage listed high of $780 in October of 2022 for this grade;

2)  Daredevil 168 in CGC 9.2 sold for $288 or at only 64% to condition guide of $450 and a Heritage listed high of $480 in June of 2022 for this grade;

3)  GSXM 1 in CGC 8.5 sold for $4,080 or at only 65% to condition guide of $6,250 and a HA listed high of $$7,200 in January of 2022 for this grade;

4)  GSXM 1 in CGC 9.8 sold for $29,249 in CL on Monday or at only 43% compared to a listed CL CGC 9.8 result of $67,900 in March of 2021;  

5)  Hulk 180 in CGC 9.0 sold for $1,680 or at 87% to condition guide of $1,928 and a HA listed high of $3,120 in November of 2021 for this grade;

6)  Hulk 181 in CGC 8.5 sold for $6,600 or at 88% to condition guide of $7,500 and a Heritage listed high of $8,400 in May of 2022 for this grade;

7)  Iron Man 55 in CGC 9.2 sold for $1,860 or at 93% to condition guide of $2,000 and a HA listed high of $2,160 in March of 2022 for this grade;

8)  Marvel Spotlight 5 in CGC 7.5 sold for $1,740 or at 81% to condition guide of $2,137.5 and a HA high of $4,020 in March of 2022 for this grade;

9)  Marvel Super-Heroes 13 in CGC 9.0 sold for $1,080 or at 52% to condition guide of $2,062 and a HA high of $1,800 in Sept of 2020 for this grade;

10) Star Wars 1 in CGC 9.2 sold for $336 or at only 67% to condition guide of $500 and a HA listed high of $540 in October of 2022 for this grade;

11) Strange Tales 180 in CGC 9.4 sold for $312 compared to 9.2 top of guide at $325 and a HA listed high of $528 in Dec. of 2021 in CGC 9.4; and

12) Wolverine 1 Mini in CGC 9.2 sold for $139 or at 69.5% to condition guide of $200 and a HA listed high of $188.40 in June of 2022 for this grade.

 

Obviously, somebody with far too much time on my hands after the hectic Christmas rush looking for something to do.  So, even though this is a SELECTED sample of some auction results during the past few days for what are supposedly in-demand BA and CA books, it should provide you with a general answer to your initial question of whether prices have dropped or not.  Haven't bothered to check, but I would suspect the drops for the CGC 9.8's would be even larger since the swings in the more extreme grades usually tend to be more volatile or exaggerated, as seen by the 57% drop in the CGC 9.8 graded copy of GSXM 1 when compared to the 43% market price drop for the CGC 8.5 graded copy.  Then again, all good if you are a long term collector since the $29K price point is still more than a double from the low teen's where the CGC 9.8's were selling for just prior to the pandemic.  I guess it really depends on where it will eventually settle in at as it took a temporary pause in the high $40K's and then in the mid $30K's and now > $30K on its descent back down from its pandemic peak in the $60K's price point.     

 

So, based upon results like the ones noted in my above post, nothing more than me just wondering about your general comment that prices on Heritage are still holding strong.  If your point was really meant more that the Heritage results to your view are not holding strong to their own previous results, but are holding stronger when compared to CL auction results for the same book, then I would tend to agree with you here.  

Edited January 31, 2023 by lou_fine

[lou_fine]

On 1/31/2023 at 5:28 AM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

You're asking me to compare Heritage and ComicLink, and I'll just point out that all three major auction houses (throwing in ComicConnect as well) have a tiered system whereby they feature certain "blue chip" books in special auctions, or in special "sessions" to kick off an auction, and the rest of the books are offered separately.  All three do a very good job of promoting their "featured" books, so you're not likely to find bargains in any of those sessions.  But when I want a book badly enough, I will get in there and swing for the fences -- and while I may end up paying through the nose, certain of these books are pretty much never brought to the market in any venue other than a featured auction at one of the three big houses.

In my experience, a "regular" Heritage auction (held weekly, Sunday/Monday) is more likely to have the 9.6 WP SA / BA run filler books I am looking for than either of the other two houses, with ComicLink a strong second place.  Heritage has been sprinkling in their "Oregon Coast collection" books over the past year or two, plus there are plenty of others.  On the other extreme, a "regular" ComicConnect auction is the weakest of the three, generally full of low-to-mid grade books, raw books, group lots, and other stuff I have no interest in.  I'm glad they have an automated want list service because otherwise I would not be interested in picking through all that to find something I want.  With ComicLink it's more subtle -- without really highlighting it, they segment even their "regular" auctions so that the first week generally has the highest-value material, then they will start at the beginning of the alphabet again and run through the "lesser" material.  Again, there's a want list service that makes sure I don't miss anything but I do usually comb through the "lesser" stuff because sometimes there's a nice surprise there and I will go for it.

And lastly, a comment about auction format.  With ComicLink, you take your best shot and when time runs out, it's over. That means you at least have a chance of laying in the weeds and pouncing and getting a bargain.  On the other hand, both Heritage and ComicConnect allow for back-and forth which means there is no hiding.  If someone else wants that book, they have the option of not letting you get away until they've made you pay just a bit more than their absolute max.

 

So yes, I have found that Heritage auctions are more likely to cost me more money when I choose to bid.  That's just my experience, make of it what you will.

Fantastic detailed look at the 3 major comic book auction sites here and some excellent points that I would definitely tend to agree with.  

Personally, I generally don't tend to participate in the CL auctions because I really don't care much for their auction format which is seemingly really geared more towards the Hail Mary last micro-second auction snipers.  With respect to the CC auctions, the only ones which I really pay attention to are their major Event Auctions which comes out about four times a year.  Definitely don't pay much attention to their monthly auctions as it is really "lesser" material and there are already too many auctions to keep track of nowadays.  

As for Heritage, it will be interesting to see what they have going forward.  They seem to be drifting away from having large Signature Auctions which everybody here seems to pay attention to due to the quality books that they have.  They now seem to be going to more of a Showcase auction format focusing in on specific comic book themes as per the 3 Showcase Auctions which they already have have scheduled for the month of February.  Not sure if I care much for this seeming downsizing of their Signature Auctions, but I guess time will tell if it works or not.      

Edited January 31, 2023 by lou_fine

[whomerjay]

On 1/31/2023 at 10:25 AM, bc said:

 

Between just these 2 auction houses, nearly half a Billion dollars in collectible cars & trucks were sold this month alone - don't think our little hobby does that in an entire year!

-

idk… have you noticed on our beloved forum the number of people flipping books immediately after buying them …factor in the turnover rate and comics may in fact be competing. 

Edited January 31, 2023 by whomerjay

[Microchip]

On 2/1/2023 at 2:25 AM, bc said:

Earlier this month, Mecum sold over $250 Million in one of their auctions.

That's the total value of comics tracked by GPA in the last year.

[Westy Steve]

IMHO, the market softness (Which I feel is firming) Is closely associated with the rarity of the books. If the book is easy to obtain later in the same grade, then it’s price has  softened.  If a book is difficult to obtain later due to flat out rarity (golden age) or later books in high grade, Sellers are hesitant to sell.