Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[LOC Collectibles]

MARVEL COMICS THE AVENGERS #1 SILVER AGE KEY CGC | AND SOLD IT (hibid.com) we just sold an Avengers #1 CGC 4.0 copy at auction this past week at a hammer price of $5900. Was concerned the buyer wouldn't pay since they were a new name to the auctions but sure enough they paid immediately. We've seen a solid uptick of demand for low to mid grade keys in the last 4-6 weeks.

[BraveDave]

On 4/27/2023 at 3:42 PM, mjoeyoung said:

I just picked that one as a popular example.  Just about every comic, in every grade on the GPA has a similar chart.

Not really.  

[Westy Steve]

Yep. By the picture/chart of IG181 above, nicer Bronze might be under priced. When markets correct, they overshoot to they downside

Edited April 29, 2023 by Westy Steve

[mjoeyoung]

On 4/27/2023 at 4:10 PM, BraveDave said:

Not really.  

Well, I can't really argue with logic like that. 

I'm not talking about GA books.  I'm talking about key SA and newer books (like the IH #181 that started this thread) that have enough sales so they have enough data points.  Amazing Spider-Man #50, #300, Batman #171, Marvel Spotlight #5, Ultimate Fallout #4, NYX #3, etc.

The basic chart is slow and steady growth until 2018 or so, then bubble up and now prices are decreasing.

[BraveDave]

On 4/28/2023 at 2:15 AM, mjoeyoung said:

Well, I can't really argue with logic like that. 

I'm not talking about GA books.  I'm talking about key SA and newer books (like the IH #181 that started this thread) that have enough sales so they have enough data points.  Amazing Spider-Man #50, #300, Batman #171, Marvel Spotlight #5, Ultimate Fallout #4, NYX #3, etc.

The basic chart is slow and steady growth until 2018 or so, then bubble up and now prices are decreasing.

You said “just about every comic, in every grade”… which is really not the case. Since you narrowed the group, I now tend to agree.

I will just choose one to illustrate - Adventure Comics 247. Its price history looks very different from IH181. Both in terms of recent movements (post speculative bubble) and the growth rates over a longer/shorter period.

There are countless examples of books similar to Adventure Comics 247. Where the new highs in 2020-2021 were not meaningfully “off-trend”… and any declines after have been similarly more benign.

Now compare that price action to a host of thematically similar books: GSX1, IH181, even AF15 (big spikes and now off 50%+ from peak)… and even more extreme the “movie spec” so-called keys that blew up and then cratered 70%+.
 

The latter are akin to “Pets.com” and MCU spec “quasi keys” akin to dogecoin or <pick your meme stock>. Very different - mostly because these higher-supply, highly-traded books were tied to something (movies, an ever-expansing universe of streaming media, etc) to make them “justifiably” attractive during a time when many found a way to rationalize unsustainable price increases.

Edited April 28, 2023 by BraveDave

[DC#]

Here is a small pulse from this past weekend's Heritage auction.     The DD #1 6.0 was crazy strong but it was probably the best looking 6.0 in white pages around.     And the WBBN #32 was strong too.....

Edited April 28, 2023 by DC#

[mjoeyoung]

On 4/28/2023 at 2:40 AM, BraveDave said:

You said “just about every comic, in every grade”… which is really not the case. Since you narrowed the group, I now tend to agree.

I will just choose one to illustrate - Adventure Comics 247. Its price history looks very different from IH181. Both in terms of recent movements (post speculative bubble) and the growth rates over a longer/shorter period.

There are countless examples of books similar to Adventure Comics 247. Where the new highs in 2020-2021 were not meaningfully “off-trend”… and any declines after have been similarly more benign.

Now compare that price action to a host of thematically similar books: GSX1, IH181, even AF15 (big spikes and now off 50%+ from peak)… and even more extreme the “movie spec” so-called keys that blew up and then cratered 70%+.
 

The latter are akin to “Pets.com” and MCU spec “quasi keys” akin to dogecoin or <pick your meme stock>. Very different - mostly because these higher-supply, highly-traded books were tied to something (movies, an ever-expansing universe of streaming media, etc) to make them “justifiably” attractive during a time when many found a way to rationalize unsustainable price increases.

We may have to agree to disagree here.

It is hard to draw conclusions from books like Adventure Comics #247 because it just doesn't have enough sales, but:

Look at Adventure #247 in grades 4.0, 3.5 and 2.5.  Those grades are following the same path as the IH #181.

4.0 grade went  $2051 low in 2019, then $2300 in 2020, then $2475 in 2021, then $3806 in 2022 and last sale of $2520 in 2023.  I would define that $3806 as "off-trend."

3.5 grade went from a low of $1440 in 2019 to a high of $3550 (with all sales but one above $2400) in 2022 and the two sales in 2023 have been a $3500 early with the most recent down to $2160.  So is this trending back up to $2400+ or down to $1440?

ADV #247 in 2.5 went from a low of $898 in 2019 to a high of $2300 in 2021, followed by every single sale after that falling lower (4 sales from $1900 to $1620).  This grade had a sale on Sept 26, 2021 of $1200 and on the 28th the sale of $2300.  What was the driving factor for that?

There may be "countless" books similar to ADV #247 because books like ADV #247 don't drive the market.  They follow the market.  There are plenty of non-Marvel, non-DC books that are following a trend similar to IH #181, like TMNT #1, Bone #1, Crow #1, and Comico Primer #2.

Also, I still think we are in a bubble.  Only one shoe has dropped.

 

[mjoeyoung]

On 4/28/2023 at 8:08 AM, DC# said:

Here is a small pulse from this past weekend's Heritage auction.     The DD #1 6.0 was crazy strong but it was probably the best looking 6.0 in white pages around.     And the WBBN #32 was strong too.....

 

Results like the WBBN #32 just scream shill bidding to me.  "Bob the average sale on WBBN #32 is getting too low, we need a crazy sale to bump up the price!  Whew! Now we can say "Last sale was $XXXX in our next auction!""  

[DC#]

On 4/28/2023 at 12:36 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Results like the WBBN #32 just scream shill bidding to me.  "Bob the average sale on WBBN #32 is getting too low, we need a crazy sale to bump up the price!  Whew! Now we can say "Last sale was $XXXX in our next auction!""  

Funny you say that.....because that sale has not shown up in GPA yet but all the other sales from my chart were already there.  Heritage results load really fast into GPA...makes it a pain to do these recaps.

 

[BraveDave]

I am looking over a longer time frame than three or four years and not selecting specific grades. Also, 2022 was after the decline started. Depends on the month you choose, of course. My reference points are HA results and going back years Adv 247 has ups and downs but the return over a long time frame (decades) is what we’d expect (slight premium to stock market returns).  

I won’t spam the forum with images anyone can find but just look at HA results for Adv247 and sort highest to lowest auction results. You will see years bouncing around for a similar grade range (ie 2016, 2017, 2019, 2021, 2022 results).  In other words, price groupings haven’t spiked. This is completely different from sorting any real bubble books where all high prices are in 2020/2021 and by a very, very significant margin.
 

If you selectively choose what data to represent, especially for scarcer books, you can paint any picture you want… but there is little similarity between IH181 as representative of a bubble and Adv247. Both may trend up or down with the market but the amplitude (the “beta”) is wildly different. 
 

My guess is few people were accumulating copies of Adv247 in anticipation of a quick “trend” sale or speculation in any meaningful way. Can the same be said of Ih181? Does the trend down in the market imply the same impact on demand (natural vs speculative)? If you answer yes to both, then our opinions are too far to be bridged.

Finally, no comic book was really “leading” this latest bubble market. It was excess money supply and was reflected across collectible categories (and beyond). There was concentration of the most excessive speculative elements and those generally went towards the higher supply books. Lots of transactions, lots of cheerleading (and, with accumulation, likely questionable tactics) and therefore a lot of $$$ flowed into those areas of greatest momentum. Those segments also deflated fastest (and with the most money “lost/locked up in losses” due to that high transacted volume at those prices points).

Edited April 28, 2023 by BraveDave

[The humble Watcher lurking]

On 4/28/2023 at 10:08 AM, DC# said:

Here is a small pulse from this past weekend's Heritage auction.     The DD #1 6.0 was crazy strong but it was probably the best looking 6.0 in white pages around.     And the WBBN #32 was strong too.....

Interesting that X-MEN #1 took a big loss.  I guess the movie hype might have cooled down? 

[FormerReader]

On 4/28/2023 at 6:34 PM, The humble Watcher lurking said:

Interesting that X-MEN #1 took a big loss.  I guess the movie hype might have cooled down? 

The movie is years out and the book is overpriced. Once actual news starts coming out it should get a bump. For now the COVID bump needs to come back to reality.

[DC#]

On 4/28/2023 at 3:34 PM, The humble Watcher lurking said:

Interesting that X-MEN #1 took a big loss.  I guess the movie hype might have cooled down? 

It definitely wasn’t the best looking 3.5…..

[Microchip]

On 4/29/2023 at 9:29 AM, DC# said:

It definitely wasn’t the best looking 3.5…..

[DC#]

On 4/28/2023 at 12:36 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Results like the WBBN #32 just scream shill bidding to me.  "Bob the average sale on WBBN #32 is getting too low, we need a crazy sale to bump up the price!  Whew! Now we can say "Last sale was $XXXX in our next auction!""  

An 8.5 WP copy of WWBN #32 closed on ComicLink last night for $1,600 - so half of the Heritage number.     And the Heritage sale is still not showing up in GPA.  

[Dark Knight]

On 4/28/2023 at 4:29 PM, DC# said:

It definitely wasn’t the best looking 3.5…..

Yup I was gonna post that the copy looks horrendous and thus suffered a low sale.

Yesterday there was another X-Men 1 CGC 3.0 I think that ended at CL for cheap too. Again due to the poor eye appeal the book has.

[mjoeyoung]

On 4/29/2023 at 1:30 PM, Dark Knight said:

Yup I was gonna post that the copy looks horrendous and thus suffered a low sale.

Yesterday there was another X-Men 1 CGC 3.0 I think that ended at CL for cheap too. Again due to the poor eye appeal the book has.

 There was a 4.5 that went for $9811, GPA has last sale at $12,500.  Cover is pretty faded.  Average sale this year is down to about $12K.

[Roger66]

Faded covers are simply a big knock if not a $ drag on a final auction price and GPA does not and cannot have an asterisk next to the sales' data noting "ugly copy."  When you only focus on GPA recent sales of big keys like X1 without having a fuller picture by doing your due diligence in finding the actual sale - you are often doing yourself an injustice whether as a buyer or a seller because value is very often about eye-appeal  with comics not just the technical grade assigned. I, for example, loathe faded covers  on fairly common keys and would never bid on one for my PC.  My 2-cents.    

Edited April 29, 2023 by Roger66

[Dark Knight]

Actually that was the copy I was referring to . Definitely one of the ugliest 4.5's I've ever seen in this grade!

Edited April 29, 2023 by Dark Knight

[Roger66]

On 4/29/2023 at 6:25 PM, Dark Knight said:

Actually that was the copy I was referring to . Definitely one of the ugliest 4.5's I've ever seen in this grade!

Which is what makes the final sales price on this ugly copy still impressive because to many a keen-nuanced collector that book is worth a chunk less.