Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[lou_fine]

On 4/8/2023 at 5:50 PM, Microchip said:

People can see if a certain book has no chance at a resub ($11400), and a book that has a healthy shot at the top grade ($31200).

From your own personal visual POV, what's the dead giveaway that the $11.4K copy has that gives it no chance for an upgrade while the $31.2K copy has a healthy shot for a potential upgrade?  

Is it the fact that the $11.4K copy has that slightly off center cover or that the slab holder is not as crystal clear as the $31.2K copy?  Without having the actual books in hand and just from the front cover scan, I would tend to say that the $31.2K copy "appears" to be visually nicer  although I certainly don't care for what's going on with theat bottom right corner unless that's just a scanning artifact.  \

I guess for the "Mr. Magoo" type of bidder here, this is where the CVA and QES stickers come in handy if you are into the CPR game since the batting average on those books when it comes to potential upgrades are substantially higher.  

Edited April 9, 2023 by lou_fine

[lou_fine]

On 4/8/2023 at 5:50 PM, Microchip said:

But your right, the ratio's of pricing between 9.6 and and 9.8 has lost all rationality.

This probably applies mostly for irrational bidders who think that grading is an undisputable exact science to the nth degree, as opposed to the subjective opinion and influenced by many factors that it actually is.  

I find that this phenomenon tends to apply more to recent and readily available books and not so much to GA books where you can sometimes even see books selling for more money in lower grade than when they are in higher grade:   

https://comics.ha.com/itm/golden-age-1938-1955-/lone-ranger-28-mile-high-pedigree-dell-1950-cgc-nm-92-off-white-to-white-pages/a/122226-17522.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515

CGC 9.2 graded Church copy of Lone Ranger 28 purchased by Schmell for $2,040 back in June of 2022 and then successfully CPR'd to this:  

 

https://comics.ha.com/itm/golden-age-1938-1955-/lone-ranger-28-mile-high-pedigree-dell-1950-cgc-nm-94-off-white-to-white-pages/a/40229-82299.s?ic16=ViewItem-BrowseTabs-Auction-Archive-ArchiveSearchResults-012417&lotPosition=0|1

Resold by Schmell as part of his Doug's Dell & Gold Key Showcase Auction on Heritage this past Thursday for a stunning $780.    

It actually reminded me of a few of the Crackajack Funnies with the QES stickers that Schmell had won on CC back in 2021 and then able to bump up by one or two grade increments and yet still ended up selling for LESS money when they were auctioned off in another one of his Doug's Dell & Gold Key Showcase Auctions on Heritage back in February.  

Love the fact that Doug has absolutely zero confidence in his own PedigreeComics.com website auction platform when it comes to selling books from his own personal collection.    

Edited April 9, 2023 by lou_fine

[Microchip]

On 4/9/2023 at 3:51 PM, lou_fine said:

From your own personal visual POV, what's the dead giveaway that the $11.4K copy has that gives it no chance for an upgrade while the $31.2K copy has a healthy shot for a potential upgrade?  

Is it the fact that the $11.4K copy has that slightly off center cover or that the slab holder is not as crystal clear as the $31.2K copy?  Without having the actual books in hand and just from the front cover scan, I would tend to say that the $31.2K copy "appears" to be visually nicer  although I certainly don't care for what's going on with theat bottom right corner unless that's just a scanning artifact.  \

I guess for the "Mr. Magoo" type of bidder here, this is where the CVA and QES stickers come in handy if you are into the CPR game since the batting average on those books when it comes to potential upgrades are substantially higher.  

I've not actually seen the books quoted, but just applied some logic round the wide ranging disparity.   A $30k splurge, for a possible $60k windfall if you assessed correctly, then the sale of the more desirable 9.6 stands very easily.

[mjoeyoung]

On 4/9/2023 at 7:36 AM, Microchip said:

I've not actually seen the books quoted, but just applied some logic round the wide ranging disparity.   A $30k splurge, for a possible $60k windfall if you assessed correctly, then the sale of the more desirable 9.6 stands very easily.

I usually try to put links in my posts when I can...

On 4/8/2023 at 10:15 PM, mjoeyoung said:

January 12 ($11,400) and March 30 ($31,200) of 2023.  Both at Heritage.

 

On 4/8/2023 at 11:51 PM, lou_fine said:

From your own personal visual POV, what's the dead giveaway that the $11.4K copy has that gives it no chance for an upgrade while the $31.2K copy has a healthy shot for a potential upgrade?  

 

The $11.4K copy seems to have a small water stain top right back cover.  The $31.2K copy has a small tear (bindery?) bottom spine front cover and that overlapping curled cover bottom right front cover.  There also seem to be a couple of minor defects on the right edge front cover beneath Surfer's board.  I don't think it is a slam dunk 9.8.  That is a $20K gamble on a book that indeed did sell for $90K ONCE, but only $16.8K in 2019. 

[THE_BEYONDER]

The $31k copy isn’t even a 9.6 as it sits

SCS LRC 

[g-man]

Buy the grade….not the book. 

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 4/9/2023 at 10:28 PM, g-man said:

Buy the grade….not the book. 

In this case it’s being suggested this was purchased as a 9.8 candidate.   
 

I’m predicting fail

[Motor City Rob]

On 4/6/2023 at 8:14 AM, F For Fake said:

Re: the latest CLink auctions, I am getting blown out on books that a couple of months ago I would have won with my low "tracking bid". I mostly concentrate on common copper and modern junk no one else much cares about, and I was winning those books for a song back in the fall. So, not sure that things are picking up per se, but for the drek I like, it feels like the good times may be wrapping up.

I'm not seeing that with the Silver and Bronze Age keys that I bid on. I won about 10 books with bids that were the lowest price in over two years. The other 10 or so books I didn't win still sold for slightly under previous sale. Still deals to be had. 

[Pantodude]

On 4/9/2023 at 1:51 AM, lou_fine said:

From your own personal visual POV, what's the dead giveaway that the $11.4K copy has that gives it no chance for an upgrade while the $31.2K copy has a healthy shot for a potential upgrade?  

Is it the fact that the $11.4K copy has that slightly off center cover or that the slab holder is not as crystal clear as the $31.2K copy? 

Howdy. Interesting, but your suggestion that a Silver Surfer #4 graded 9.6 and at least OW/W would not fetch $30K unless it were a 9.8 candidate seems off. Silver Surfer #4 in 9.6 has fetched $30K or so in each of the last three years (4 times in all) without necessarily being such a candidate:  3/30/23: 9.6 OW/W = $31200 on H; 5/12/22: 9.6 OW/W = $28800 on H;  4/8/22: 9.6 W = $33600 on H; 9/9/21:  9.6 W = $28.8K on H. 

Consistent with that possibility, I checked the grader notes for all those referenced 9.6s, and they suggest that they could be nice 9.6s but not necessarily candidates for 9.8. If any of those 9.6s had been bought at a premium as potential 9.8 candidates (as opposed to just legit, nice 9.6s), the greedy gene in all of us suggests those books would have been resubmitted to CGC by now.  But all their certs remain active on CGC (yes, I'm assuming we are all census-conscientious players).  BTW, census for 9.8s has remained unchanged since at least June 2021, while # of 9.6s has been either 74 or 75 since June 2022, and only the 9.4s went up some.  This suggests that if those 9.6s had been resubbed for the 9.8 lottery (w/o cancelling the origional certifications), the submitters lost that gamble.    

So these approx $28.8K-33.6K results could simply refllect the currently reasonable ceiling for a nice 9.6 since the June 2021 sale of a 9.8 for $90K.  The much more modest results during Fall 2022 and Jan 2023 could be explained by market jitters, which arguably makes the recent $31200 sale more remarkable, in a bullish way.  

Just a thought.  Besides, SS#4, with one of the best covers in all of comicdom, could simply be a $30K book now in 9.6.  An uber grade for such cover-heavy books could (should?) be more impactful than an uber grade for other keys that do not have an historic cover, even if more scarce. 

Edited April 10, 2023 by Pantodude

[DC#]

This is a crazy sale.  +50% above current GPA and trounced all time high of $6k.    Some funky bidding there at the end.    
 

[sfcityduck]

Seems pretty obvious that prices have fallen considerably on a wide swath of books across the grades.  So much so, that I think the title of this thread should be:

"Are prices still falling or have they stiffened up a bit?"

Sure some mega-keys are still moving upward with leaps and bounds, but those books are a price point where the only people who buy them are immune to general economic trends and have no need to make rational decisions, so they are not a good indicator at all.  In contrast, a GS X-Men 1 in mid-grade is a pretty good indicator of what ordinary collectors might be willing to splurge on.  And those prices are falling.

[sfcityduck]

On 4/10/2023 at 8:17 AM, DC# said:

This is a crazy sale.  +50% above current GPA and trounced all time high of $6k.    Some funky bidding there at the end.    
 

It only takes two irrational bidders to lead to an irrational result.  After all, comics have no value other than what someone is willing to pay on any given day. There is no fundamental or intrinsic value to a comic. So outliers are common.  And the CGC 9.8 key market is full of irrationality.  

[DC#]

On 4/10/2023 at 10:25 AM, sfcityduck said:

It only takes two irrational bidders to lead to an irrational result.  After all, comics have no value other than what someone is willing to pay on any given day. There is no fundamental or intrinsic value to a comic. So outliers are common.  And the CGC 9.8 key market is full of irrationality.  

True.   But in this case the winning bidder only made one bid - the final bid.   And their history shows they mostly only do one bid and mostly on collectibles.   The underbidder had bid several times including automatic bids.   Did the underbidder just put in a crazy high number in an attempt to avoid last minute snipe only to get sniped by one of those tools some buyers use to thwart all other last bids (I am butchering the explanation but hopefully you get it).   
 

I am going to watch this one - I have a feeling it might not close.  

[Sweet Lou 14]

That DD #131 doesn't even have white pages ... oof.

[lou_fine]

On 4/10/2023 at 7:30 AM, Pantodude said:

Howdy. Interesting, but your suggestion that a Silver Surfer #4 graded 9.6 and at least OW/W would not fetch $30K unless it were a 9.8 candidate seems off. 

I believe you must have misread my post as I never suggested that it would only sell for $30 if it stood a chance for a upgrade to CGC 9.8.  

If anything, it was really more @Microchip who had made this comment from his following post up above:    

On 4/8/2023 at 5:50 PM, Microchip said:

Putting $20k down on an educated return of $60k.   We all know there was periods of very tight grading in the past.  I've got an old label 9.6 myself that would resub at 9.8.

But your right, the ratio's of pricing between 9.6 and and 9.8 has lost all rationality.   Which is why you see results like what you've highlighted above.   People can see if a certain book has no chance at a resub ($11400), and a book that has a healthy shot at the top grade ($31200).

I was merely asking Microchip what were the clear visual differences that he was seeing between the $11.4K copy and the $31.2K copy.  

 

On 4/10/2023 at 7:30 AM, Pantodude said:

Silver Surfer #4 in 9.6 has fetched $30K or so in each of the last three years (4 times in all) without necessarily being such a candidate:  3/30/23: 9.6 OW/W = $31200 on H; 5/12/22: 9.6 OW/W = $28800 on H;  4/8/22: 9.6 W = $33600 on H; 9/9/21:  9.6 W = $28.8K on H. 

Although you are indeed totally correct here, it would appear that you are missing a few of the data points here.  Namely, the fact that other copies of Silver Surfer in CGC 9.6 also sold after pandemic bubble at Heritage for $18K in September of 2022, $15.6K in November of 2022, and for $16.8K in December of 2022  before dropping down even further to only $11.4K in January of 2023.  Based upon these more recent sales, it would appear that the $31.2K price point is more of a possible outlier until we see more confirming sales at this higher price point going forward.  

Personally speaking for myself, I would certainly hope so since I still have my HG set of Silver Surfers in my personal collection in raw condition.  

Edited April 10, 2023 by lou_fine

[lou_fine]

On 4/10/2023 at 8:20 AM, sfcityduck said:

Seems pretty obvious that prices have fallen considerably on a wide swath of books across the grades.  So much so, that I think the title of this thread should be:

"Are prices still falling or have they stiffened up a bit?"

Well, as far as I can tell, still no softening or droopiness on this book here back to its former placid state, as it still looks rock hard solid and continuing to stiffened up and firm its upwards trajectory here at $5,280 just last Thursday:    

https://comics.ha.com/itm/silver-age-1956-1969-/the-rifleman-10-dell-1962-cgc-nm-96-off-white-to-white-pages/a/40229-82361.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515

[grendel013]

I cringe every time I see Rifleman 10.

[buttock]

On 4/10/2023 at 12:25 PM, grendel013 said:

I cringe every time I see Rifleman 10.

Is it the corduroy shirt?

[grendel013]

On 4/10/2023 at 2:28 PM, buttock said:

Is it the corduroy shirt?

Yes. But only because of the buttons.

[Pantodude]

@lou_fine It's no biggie.  Like I said, you raised interesting points.  It didn't really matter who said it.  The point being that the implication (grandfathered into your post, if that's the case) remained the same, and I just wanted to address it, as an alternative view.   I expressly referred to the more modest results during the Fall 2022 and Jan 2023, just didn't want to litter the post with even more data.    

On 4/10/2023 at 1:50 PM, lou_fine said:

Based upon these more recent sales, it would appear that the $31.2K price point is more of a possible outlier

Just clarifying that my reference to the 28.8-33.6 range was as a potentially reasonable ceiling at this time for a solid SS#4 in 9.6 OW/W, i.e., the book need not be a 9.8 candidate to get there.  A recurring outlier might not really be an outlier, with enough perspective, like if the book most recently sold for $31.6K, the 4th time in that range in just 1.5 years (18 months).  But "possible outlier" seems fair.  It's really the suggested reasonable ceiling that intrigued me.    

Edited April 10, 2023 by Pantodude