Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[toro]

 

There were a lot of head scratching endings today in the Thor line

[mjoeyoung]

Most of this thread has revolved around high grades, keys and graded comics because that is where the majority of the available data is.  As others have stated we are missing a large portion of the market.  My interests are too varied, and my abode too small, to purchase everything in plastic, so I do spend a bit of time researching and purchasing in this part of the market.  I thought I would start sharing some of this data in attempt to offer a limited, but more well rounded perspective.

mycomicshop.com offers past sales data on current and recent auction offerings in an accessible format, so most of my data is from them.  You can also access this data for any past auction item that you have won.

I will try to make a more comprehensive analysis in the future, but this one stood out last night.

Phantom Stranger v2, #1, last night's sale is the first one for $28.00, followed by most recent sales, with the rest of the data divided by grade, with .5 higher and lower grades, and listed by date.  All are raw unless stated.

 

It looks like all 3 grades enjoyed a 50% to 100% increase in price in 2020-2021, with a 2022 high price of $85 for a CGC 6.0.  Then the bubble pops with the $45, 5.0 sale in Nov 2022, (still up about 25% from 2019 prices).  The March 2023 price looks like a continuation of 2021 prices, but it is followed by the latest price which is much closer to pre-2019 prices.

So, in a span of 3 months you have a book selling for a near historical high, AND for a near historical low.  Which sale is the outlier?  Pretty tough to determine FMV at the moment.

[mjoeyoung]

On 6/6/2023 at 9:01 PM, toro said:

 

There were a lot of head scratching endings today in the Thor line

Really hard for me to understand some of these.  It seems that people may be putting too much faith in the accuracy of the CGC census.

The #244 is 7x the last Feb 2021 sales of $153.  There are only 43 graded copies with 26 of them 9.4 and above.  Yep, never going to be more than five 9.8s of this book. 

 

Thor #170 in a 9.6 sold for $1003.  Previously, sold for $160 in 2018, $480 and then $720 in 2021.  There are only 178 copies of this book graded, 2 9.8s and 17 9.6s.

Meanwhile, Thor #158 9.6 sold for $281, last was $276, but it has 629 graded copies with 15 9.8s and 39 9.6s.

I would bet that once #170 has as many graded copies as #158 that the amount of 9.8s and 9.6s is similar.

Also,  #158, which reprints Thor's origin, has always been worth a premium over a "run filler" like #170.  Looking at the GPA, this still seems to hold true until grades of 9.2, with #158 selling for a price about twice #170s value.  After that the values flip with #170 selling for more than the #158, with rarity trumping content.  That feels like a possible paradigm shift.

 

In a similar vein, Thor #130 9.6 sold for $1600, last sale $780 in 2021. Maybe this one was affected by the 2021 9.8 sale for $7200? 

Thor #132 9.6 sold for only $351, last sale $486 in May 2023.  There are 357 graded copies of #130 with 5 9.8s and 18 9.6s.  There are a whopping 968 graded copies of #132 with 80 9.8s and 191 9.6s.

Is there a good argument to be made that, in the wild, issue #130 does not exist in a similar quantity and quality as #132?  This is a book that sold 296,000 copies an issue.  This seems similar to the example that  @lou_fine was sharing.  Odds are that more high grade copies of these "rare" books are going to be discovered.

 

Edited June 7, 2023 by mjoeyoung

[jimjum12]

On 6/7/2023 at 1:41 AM, mjoeyoung said:

Is there a good argument to be made that, in the wild, issue #130 does not exist in a similar quantity and quality as #132?  This is a book that sold 296,000 copies an issue.  This seems similar to the example that  @lou_fine was sharing.  Odds are that more high grade copies of these "rare" books are going to be discovered.

 

It absolutely doesn't exist in similar quantities. Chuck's MHII motherlode of high-grade silver had at least one FULL pallet of uncirculated copies of Thor 132. Thor 130 has what many consider to be one of the best Thor covers. There are several comics that have exceptionally high numbers in grade, FF 59, Thor 156, XMEN 10, ASM 33, and several early DD's, and several Avengers in the 20's and 30's, are among the more notorious. Some are so common in grade that a low grade example should sell for more, as it is more scarce. 

    As for Thor 244, it comes from a decade long segment of the Thor run that is about as lousy as it gets. Many collectors asked their Moms to PLEASE throw them away. I'm surprised any still exist at all. GOD BLESS ...

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

 

Edited June 11, 2023 by jimjum12

[lou_fine]

On 6/6/2023 at 10:41 PM, mjoeyoung said:

It seems that people may be putting too much faith in the accuracy of the CGC census.

Clearly a lot of truth to this, but what's probably even more true is that people may be putting too much faith in the accuracy of the CGC grade.  

Edited June 7, 2023 by lou_fine

[lou_fine]

On 6/5/2023 at 4:35 AM, MAR1979 said:

Hyperbole much ;) Yeah the wrap is a little off but not egregious. Not only is the book 9.8 but it's a very strong copy from a technical perspective. I purchased it raw and self submitted, so thanks for the personal attack even if it was not your intention.

Yeah, probably a bit of a hyperbole to try to make my point, but definitely not meant as a personal attack on you.  Esepcially since I have enough of these penetrating off-centered miswrapped eyesores in my own personal collection.    

Perfect case in point being SME 15 with the first appearance of Shang-Chi which seemingly must have been one of the absolutely worst printed books out there with that horrid fugly looking white line running down the spine of most copies.  You seemingly couldn't get out the door of your LCS back in the day without running across one of them, but they always seem to have that horrid looking spine.  Being a fan of the later Gulacy art, even though I was picky, just never could find that visually perfect looking copy and stopped after 4 or 5 copies since it got well beyond my purchase price point after that.    

So, not meant as a negative comment on your copy here, especially since as you have correctly stated, much more difficult when it comes to pre-BA DC books.  Really meant more as a comment on how the undislosed CGC grading standards for the top end grades from my POV have not necessarily changed for the better as it has definitely shifted more towards targeting the money generating so-called "technical" defects and less so on the clearly visual defects which so many long time collectors back in the day hated so much.  A point which was also alluded to by @whomerjay from his post below:  

On 6/5/2023 at 5:16 AM, whomerjay said:

I would also agree that the decisions made regarding what flaws dictate how much a deduction appear to be influenced by profit motives, the history of grading standards be damned. 

Looks like the smartest submittor here was the guy who we all know that submitted all of his Marvel SA key first appearances pretty much right when CGC first opened their doors or soon afterwards.  Not only saving on the constantly rising grading fees which we have seen recently, but also managed to get the still highest graded copies to date which have yet to be surpassed (save for only a couple of them) after some 20+ plus years of certification.  Any bets that there was still a lot of "old school" grading in there when CGC first opened their doors and relatively much less emphasis on the so-called "technical" defects that would eventually surge to the top of CGC's "hit" parade when it came to grading at the top end.  

[jimjum12]

On 6/7/2023 at 3:22 AM, lou_fine said:

Any bets that there was still a lot of "old school" grading in there when CGC first opened their doors and relatively much less emphasis on the so-called "technical" defects that would eventually surge to the top of CGC's "hit" parade when it came to grading at the top end.  

Any old labels that would benefit from a re-sub have mostly already gone that route. Now, if you find an older label serial number in a newer case, it would just be a beholder and may still have "potential". GOD BLESS ... 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

[mjoeyoung]

On 6/7/2023 at 12:05 AM, jimjum12 said:

It absolutely doesn't exist in similar quantities. Chuck's MHII motherlode of high-grade silver had at least one FULL pallet of uncirculated copies of Thor 132. Thor 130 has what many consider to be one of the best Thor covers. There are several comics that have exceptionally high numbers in grade, FF 59, Thor 156, XMEN 10, ASM 33, and several early DD's are among the more notorious. Some are so common in grade that a low grade example should sell for more, as it is more scarce. 

    As for Thor 244, it comes from a decade long segment of the Thor run that is about as lousy as it gets. Many collectors asked their Moms to PLEASE throw them away. I'm surprised any still exist at all. GOD BLESS ...

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

 

I knew there was something fishy about #132s numbers!  Poor due diligence on my part.    Your argument seems pretty reasonable to me.   

Issues #126 and #134 both have about 1500 graded copies.  Could it be possible that there are up to 1100 copies of #130 out in the wild that haven't been graded yet?  And if that were true, and since there are already 5 9.8s out of the 337 graded, that there MIGHT be a few more 9.8s found?  It appears that CGC has graded almost 1000 copies of #134 since 2021.  If Pluto gets hot maybe will see a similar amount of action on #130?  

[jimjum12]

On 6/7/2023 at 7:00 AM, mjoeyoung said:

I knew there was something fishy about #132s numbers!  Poor due diligence on my part.    Your argument seems pretty reasonable to me.   

Issues #126 and #134 both have about 1500 graded copies.  Could it be possible that there are up to 1100 copies of #130 out in the wild that haven't been graded yet?  And if that were true, and since there are already 5 9.8s out of the 337 graded, that there MIGHT be a few more 9.8s found?  It appears that CGC has graded almost 1000 copies of #134 since 2021.  If Pluto gets hot maybe will see a similar amount of action on #130?  

127 is Pluto's first and also sports a Classic Cover. It was tricky to get in 9.4 and up around 15 years ago. I paid $400 back then for one and kind of wish I still had it ... not so much for value or investment, just because those old Kirby Thors were so inspired and that one was a high point of high points. Between the Robert Bell warehouse and the Mile High 2 find, there were a lot of SA Marvels in grade for a while. One of my Pals who owns an LCS was buying longboxes of all one issue for very good prices. I think he paid $300 for a box of ASM 129. GOD BLESS ...

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

Edited June 7, 2023 by jimjum12

[MAR1979]

On 6/7/2023 at 3:22 AM, lou_fine said:

Looks like the smartest submittor here was the guy who we all know that submitted all of his Marvel SA key first appearances pretty much right when CGC first opened their doors or soon afterwards.  Not only saving on the constantly rising grading fees which we have seen recently, but also managed to get the still highest graded copies to date which have yet to be surpassed (save for only a couple of them) after some 20+ plus years of certification.  Any bets that there was still a lot of "old school" grading in there when CGC first opened their doors and relatively much less emphasis on the so-called "technical" defects that would eventually surge to the top of CGC's "hit" parade when it came to grading at the top end.  

I strongly believe CGC grading standards were much more strict for 9.8's back from 2000 (actually late 1999) - 2003. However I do feel they were less strict on 9.2's and 9.4's during that time compared to modern day.  Still even back then unless it was borderline miscut centering of wrap was not taken into consideration. Now of course the tiniest color loss becomes a 9.6 maximum, yet IMHO ugly spine hits can still garner a 9.8 if no color loss.

Wraps are personal preference thing in most cases which I feel is biased to the back cover showing on the front yet many of the same collectors have no issue with part of the front cover showing on the back...

 

Edited June 7, 2023 by MAR1979

[DC#]

Final sessions for the May/June Comiclink Featured 

[1Cool]

I wish I was red color blind so I couldn't see most of your post  

[JollyComics]

On 6/7/2023 at 12:04 PM, DC# said:

Final sessions for the May/June Comiclink Featured 

I believe the sales tax is a big factor.

[Tec-Tac-Toe]

To spin it: Those comic books are on fire!

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 6/7/2023 at 1:19 PM, Tec-Tac-Toe said:

To spin it: Those comic books are on fire!

[buttock]

On 6/7/2023 at 11:04 AM, DC# said:

Final sessions for the May/June Comiclink Featured 

Who the heck paid up for an Eternals 1?

[mjoeyoung]

On 6/7/2023 at 11:14 AM, JollyComics said:

I believe the sales tax is a big factor.

Did they recently add more states that are subject to sales tax?

[JollyComics]

On 6/7/2023 at 6:20 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Did they recently add more states that are subject to sales tax?

Yes, the billing department will apply my local sales tax.  My home is 10% sales tax so I have Wisconsin sales tax by using PO address - 5.5% but it will include the shipping cost.

If I win one book for $500, I have to pay $50 sales tax in my Illinois address. The shipping cost is excluded.   If I pay $20 shipping, Wisconsin sales tax will be $28.60 ($520 total included the shipping cost before the tax).

I used to buy many books via Comiclink but the sales tax phased me out since 2019.  I missed buying the books via Comiclink.  I forgot to mention the 3% buyer's premium fee too.  I am not sure about the buyer's premium fee will be included for the tax.

From Terms and Conditions of Website Use, Purchase and Auction Participation:

Line 16: Sales tax is currently charged for shipments made to the following states: AZ, CA, CO, FL, HI, IL, IN, MA (for artwork), MD, ME, MI, MN, NC, NJ, NY, OH, PA, OK, TX, VA, WA, and WI. Effective March 18, 2020, a State Cost-Recovery Fee of 0.375% will be charged on all orders checked out to be shipped to the state of Texas.

I gave up on ComicConnect but I still stay with MCS and Hertiage.

Edited June 8, 2023 by JollyComics

[MAR1979]

On 6/7/2023 at 7:47 PM, JollyComics said:

Yes, the billing department will apply my local sales tax.  My home is 10% sales tax so I have Wisconsin sales tax by using PO address - 5.5% but it will include the shipping cost.

If I win one book for $500, I have to pay $50 sales tax in my Illinois address. The shipping cost is excluded.   If I pay $20 shipping, Wisconsin sales tax will be $28.60 ($520 total included the shipping cost before the tax).

I used to buy many books via Comiclink but the sales tax phased me out since 2019.  I missed buying the books via Comiclink.  I forgot to mention the 3% premium buyer's fee too.  I am not sure about the premium buyer's fee will be included for the tax.

From Terms and Conditions of Website Use, Purchase and Auction Participation:

Line 16: Sales tax is currently charged for shipments made to the following states: AZ, CA, CO, FL, HI, IL, IN, MA (for artwork), MD, ME, MI, MN, NC, NJ, NY, OH, PA, OK, TX, VA, WA, and WI. Effective March 18, 2020, a State Cost-Recovery Fee of 0.375% will be charged on all orders checked out to be shipped to the state of Texas.

I gave up on ComicConnect but I still stay with MCS and Hertiage.

MCS I do understand as that makes good sense fiscally, however based on your post not clear on why you would use Heritage and not Comiclink.  Additional cost per $100 is much less on CL.  Heritage collects tax and they factor it in after their nasty 20% buyers premium.

Edited June 8, 2023 by MAR1979

[mjoeyoung]

Comic Connect Incredible Hulk #1 8.0

Last 3 sales all in 2021 were $150K, $140K and $188K

This exact book last sold in 2012 for $30K

 

Edited June 8, 2023 by mjoeyoung
Added more info