Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[lizards2]

On 6/15/2023 at 9:13 AM, musicmeta said:

On 6/15/2023 at 7:46 AM, KingOfRulers said:

If there was ever an alarm bell signaling a market crash, it would be a nice Superman #1 dropping close to 40% in value in 1.5 years. I'm sure it would be impossible to verify, but might this sale be the single biggest loss ever on a single comic book? If I had to guess, I'd say that this $1M loss is indeed the largest loss of all-time, thus far.

Yeah and you kind of wonder if a $1M loss is really just chump change to those who can play in this 7+ digit market. 

Exactly - anyone who has $2.6 million to spend on a comic book would probably hardly notice, or care that much.

Meanwhile, I'm sweating the $200 loss in value on a JIM 93. 

Edited June 15, 2023 by lizards2

[musicmeta]

On 6/15/2023 at 11:18 AM, lizards2 said:

Exactly - anyone who has $2.6 million to spend on a comic book would probably hardly notice, or care that much.

Meanwhile, I'm sweating the $200 loss in value on a JIM 93.

Yeah.  A $200 loss is huge to me as well. 

[Black_Adam]

On 6/15/2023 at 9:18 AM, lizards2 said:

Exactly - anyone who has $2.6 million to spend on a comic book would probably hardly notice, or care that much.

Meanwhile, I'm sweating the $200 loss in value on a JIM 93.

What!?! The 1st appearance of the radio-active man is going down in value!?!   

[lizards2]

On 6/15/2023 at 9:25 AM, Black_Adam said:

What!?! The 1st appearance of the radio-active man is going down in value!?!   

Last I checked on GPA a few days ago - it is tanking. Last sale for an 8.0 was $576. And I fully realize a single sale doesn't always mean much.

[KingOfRulers]

On 6/15/2023 at 12:18 PM, lizards2 said:

Exactly - anyone who has $2.6 million to spend on a comic book would probably hardly notice, or care that much.

Meanwhile, I'm sweating the $200 loss in value on a JIM 93.

Possibly. In the comic book world, I tend to think that a lot of collectors are cash poor. That's people in general. I tend to believe that comic collectors often have a huge percentage of their net worth tied up in their collectibles. Even wealthy ones. Maybe the former owner of this Superman #1 was in such a situation, maybe not. Maybe the book wasn't even owned by a single individual, but rather a pool of investors. Who knows. Nonetheless, I would not be surprised if I found out that the owner lost 1/5 or more of his net worth on the sale, given how much collectors put into their wares in this glorious hobby of ours.

You really have to have a lot of money for a $1M loss to be chump change/of little consequence. Of course that's a subjective term. For me, a loss "of little consequence" would be no more than 1% of my net worth. Above that, it is certainly on my radar as a problem. In this case, that would mean a net worth of at least $100M.

Edited June 15, 2023 by KingOfRulers

[musicmeta]

On 6/15/2023 at 11:29 AM, KingOfRulers said:

Possibly. In the comic book world, I tend to think that a lot of collectors are cash poor. That's people in general. I tend to believe that comic collectors often have a huge percentage of their net worth tied up in their collectibles. Even wealthy ones. Maybe the former owner of this Superman #1 was in such a situation, maybe not. Maybe the book wasn't even owned by a single individual, but rather a pool of investors. Who knows. Nonetheless, I would not be surprised if I found out that the owner lost 1/5 or more of his net worth on the sale, given how much collectors put into their wares in this glorious hobby of ours.

You really have to have a lot of money for a $1M to be chump change/of little consequence. Of course that's a subjective term. For me, a loss "of little consequence" would be no more than 1% of my net worth. Above that, it is certainly on my radar as a problem. In this case, that would mean a net worth of at least $100M.

Then whoever('s) bought and sold this is probably crying somewhere. 

[mjoeyoung]

On 6/15/2023 at 10:01 AM, MR. Pontoon said:

Our hobby is in the big leagues now!

All of these sales of recent "investment grade" purchases seem like people exiting the market to me.  These may people cutting their losses to pursue other investments.  Smart people don't take a million dollar loss unless they are forced to by circumstance, or they think they will lose more money if they hold on to the investment. 

On 6/15/2023 at 10:29 AM, KingOfRulers said:

In the comic book world, I tend to think that a lot of collectors are cash poor.

How many regular Joes bought comics in the bubble that are now looking at similar "paper" losses?  Does it make sense to sell your current books for a 50% loss to buy books that are still up 50 to 100% from 2018/19 prices?

[october]

On 6/15/2023 at 11:29 AM, KingOfRulers said:

Possibly. In the comic book world, I tend to think that a lot of collectors are cash poor. That's people in general. I tend to believe that comic collectors often have a huge percentage of their net worth tied up in their collectibles. Even wealthy ones. Maybe the former owner of this Superman #1 was in such a situation, maybe not. Maybe the book wasn't even owned by a single individual, but rather a pool of investors. Who knows. Nonetheless, I would not be surprised if I found out that the owner lost 1/5 or more of his net worth on the sale, given how much collectors put into their wares in this glorious hobby of ours.

You really have to have a lot of money for a $1M loss to be chump change/of little consequence. Of course that's a subjective term. For me, a loss "of little consequence" would be no more than 1% of my net worth. Above that, it is certainly on my radar as a problem. In this case, that would mean a net worth of at least $100M.

Exactly. 1% of my net worth would be a tough mental loss for me...unless the owner is a literal billionaire that sale has to suck. 

I don't think it's correct to always assume that a big dollar purchase implies the buyer can easily afford it. That's not often the case. People have Ferraris repossessed. Ten million dollar homes go into foreclosure. Centimillionaires have gone into bankruptcy. People overextend all the time. This could have been a forced liquidation, fire sale, margin call....who knows. They picked a bad time to sell, and an even worse time to originally buy. 

Edited June 15, 2023 by october

[lizards2]

On 6/15/2023 at 1:46 PM, october said:

Exactly. 1% of my net worth would be a tough mental loss for me...unless the owner is a literal billionaire that sale has to suck. 

I don't think it's correct to always assume that a big dollar purchase implies the buyer can easily afford it. That's not often the case. People have Ferraris repossessed. Ten million dollar homes go into foreclosure. Centimillionaires have gone into bankruptcy. People overextend all the time. This could have been a forced liquidation, fire sale, margin call....who knows. They picked a bad time to sell, and an even worse time to originally buy. 

I would assume that big of a loss was an "auction surprise" to the seller. 

[onlyweaknesskryptonite]

At least it will make for a good tax deduction.  

[theCapraAegagrus]

On 6/15/2023 at 12:29 PM, KingOfRulers said:

...I tend to believe that comic collectors often have a huge percentage of their net worth tied up in their collectibles...

That's because collectors want things that are tangible. Some people put money into a market, or their house, but hobbyists have other ideas.

[Robot Man]

On 6/15/2023 at 9:29 AM, KingOfRulers said:

Possibly. In the comic book world, I tend to think that a lot of collectors are cash poor. That's people in general. I tend to believe that comic collectors often have a huge percentage of their net worth tied up in their collectibles. Even wealthy ones. Maybe the former owner of this Superman #1 was in such a situation, maybe not. Maybe the book wasn't even owned by a single individual, but rather a pool of investors. Who knows. Nonetheless, I would not be surprised if I found out that the owner lost 1/5 or more of his net worth on the sale, given how much collectors put into their wares in this glorious hobby of ours.

You really have to have a lot of money for a $1M loss to be chump change/of little consequence. Of course that's a subjective term. For me, a loss "of little consequence" would be no more than 1% of my net worth. Above that, it is certainly on my radar as a problem. In this case, that would mean a net worth of at least $100M.

I remember very early on in my comic collecting quest going to a small local convention. There was a guy with most every big GA book on his table. I was secretly very impressed and thought he was a real big shot.

A couple of weeks later I was invited over to his place to buy a couple of books.

When I got there it was a small house trailer. Inside the one room was a couch, a tv, a mattress on the floor and a big table piled with comics.

I quickly realized the table represented his entire net worth. Was pretty sad. I realized that I might not have his comic collection but had SO much more than he did.

It’s all perception…

[Dr. Balls]

I just re-upped my GPA subscription a few days ago to check the price on a book I was buying and - wow - I happened to be looking at some WWBN (marvel Spotlight 2, specifically) stuff this morning, and it's shed over 50% of it's value from two years ago - from 9.8s down to the lower grades. I'm no expert, but the last time I saw people buying comics hand over fist, only to see them lose their value that quickly - it was the mid-90s. And that was newer drek - not BA books that theoretically should hold their values a bit in the higher grades.

I know this comes up all the time, and it's not really nothing new - it was just shocking to see so many red downward-pointing arrows on a GPA listing.

Edited June 16, 2023 by Dr. Balls

[Robot Man]

At this point I am trying to finish off some more esoteric WWII covers and titles like Prize, Blue Ribbon, 4 Favorites, More Fun and such. Books that many years ago no one wanted but I did.

I’m sure not seeing any dips in them and rarely see many for sale.

WWBN and nearly every other Marvel are a dime a dozen. Not suprised to see them dip, even dramatically these days.

I see folks getting very choosy and careful in what they are spending their money on. And rightfully so. I know I am. 

[Dr. Balls]

On 6/16/2023 at 10:22 AM, Robot Man said:

WWBN and nearly every other Marvel are a dime a dozen. Not suprised to see them dip, even dramatically these days.

I see folks getting very choosy and careful in what they are spending their money on. And rightfully so. I know I am. 

Yeah, the bulk of my "must keep" stuff is GA for that very reason. The availability of GA compared to BA is like two different worlds. I try to sniff around for deals on high grade Bronze stuff since that's not as common - I just can't believe the massive run-up in that genre and freefall we're seeing now.

[Robot Man]

On 6/16/2023 at 9:35 AM, Dr. Balls said:

Yeah, the bulk of my "must keep" stuff is GA for that very reason. The availability of GA compared to BA is like two different worlds. I try to sniff around for deals on high grade Bronze stuff since that's not as common - I just can't believe the massive run-up in that genre and freefall we're seeing now.

I bought my BA stuff off the racks so I never had to pay up for any of them. I discovered GA very early and put my money there since it was just so much harder to find back then. Still is.

I just think the market on the other ages have caught up with the crazy prices folks have been paying for very common books. 

[Hamlet]

On 6/16/2023 at 12:06 PM, Robot Man said:

I bought my BA stuff off the racks so I never had to pay up for any of them. I discovered GA very early and put my money there since it was just so much harder to find back then. Still is.

I just think the market on the other ages have caught up with the crazy prices folks have been paying for very common books. 

Owning pretty much any SA Marvel in just about any condition is solely about being willing to pony up the money.

Some GA books are just plain hard to find in non-trashed condition, especially if you aren’t hooked into the collecting community.  Try completing a run of Raboy Masters in 6.0 or better from just auctions and publicly available sales venues.  Money isn’t the primary challenge ( although they can be expensive).  Just locating the books is the hard part.

When that is the case, they move into my “sell last” bucket, because I’m not going to be able to instantly replace it in the next Comiclink auction.

[musicmeta]

On 6/16/2023 at 11:12 AM, Dr. Balls said:

I just re-upped my GPA subscription a few days ago to check the price on a book I was buying and - wow - I happened to be looking at some WWBN (marvel Spotlight 2, specifically) stuff this morning, and it's shed over 50% of it's value from two years ago - from 9.8s down to the lower grades. I'm no expert, but the last time I saw people buying comics hand over fist, only to see them lose their value that quickly - it was the mid-90s. And that was newer drek - not BA books that theoretically should hold their values a bit in the higher grades.

I know this comes up all the time, and it's not really nothing new - it was just shocking to see so many red downward-pointing arrows on a GPA listing.

I still think I'll be alright on my 9.4 Marvel Spotlight #2 I bought for a whole Whole lot less for what it's selling currently.   Besides if I sold it, I wouldn't have it anymore.  

[KingOfRulers]

On 6/16/2023 at 12:35 PM, Dr. Balls said:

Yeah, the bulk of my "must keep" stuff is GA for that very reason. The availability of GA compared to BA is like two different worlds. I try to sniff around for deals on high grade Bronze stuff since that's not as common - I just can't believe the massive run-up in that genre and freefall we're seeing now.

 

On 6/16/2023 at 1:21 PM, Hamlet said:

Owning pretty much any SA Marvel in just about any condition is solely about being willing to pony up the money.

Some GA books are just plain hard to find in non-trashed condition, especially if you aren’t hooked into the collecting community.  Try completing a run of Raboy Masters in 6.0 or better from just auctions and publicly available sales venues.  Money isn’t the primary challenge ( although they can be expensive).  Just locating the books is the hard part.

When that is the case, they move into my “sell last” bucket, because I’m not going to be able to instantly replace it in the next Comiclink auction.

No question that any of the SA and BA Marvel stuff is readily available in essentially every grade. Many GA books aren't readily available at all, and would require a lot of effort to find a copy in any grade. The supply certainly favors GA.

However, I believe it's pretty obvious that demand favor the SA and BA Marvel books but an overwhelming margin. A Master Comics run in 6.0 would be tough to complete. However, the pool of potential buyers that are interested in purchasing Master Comics is dwarfed by those interested in purchasing Hulk #181. And I don't see that changing. What keeps comic books an alive hobby and market is its continued relevance in society. As long as the IP holding overlords such as Disney and WB keep the characters alive on TV, movies, and video games, I think the character's SA and BA material will continue to see demand. However, I can easily imagine the demand for most GA books declining as I don't foresee the majority of those characters holding significance to society going forward.

[mjoeyoung]

On 6/16/2023 at 11:06 AM, Robot Man said:

I bought my BA stuff off the racks so I never had to pay up for any of them. I discovered GA very early and put my money there since it was just so much harder to find back then. Still is.

I just think the market on the other ages have caught up with the crazy prices folks have been paying for very common books. 

There have been crazy price increases on GA as well during this bubble, across all genres.  Just a few examples:

Archie Comics #50, 6.5 grade, sold for $2040 in 2019, and then $4200 in 2022.

Doll Man #37, 6.5 grade, sold for $780 in 2019, and then $1680 in 2022.

Haunted Thrills #5, 4.5 grade, sold for $1425 in 2019, and then $4920 in 2021.

Marvel Family #1, 3.0 grade, sold for $2520 in 2019, and then $11,000 in 2021.

Punch Comics #9, 3.5 grade, sold for $3450 in 2018 and then $9600 in 2020.

Rangers #31, 6.0 grade, sold for $721 in 2018, SAME BOOK sold for $1920 in 2021.

Will the GA be immune forever?