Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[whomerjay]

On 8/18/2023 at 12:58 PM, wiparker824 said:

About 600:1? So the question is will Wolverine be 600x more popular than a romance book from the 1950’s (albeit with a classic Baker cover) particularly with the kids growing up on MCU, Disney+, etc? Quite possibly, yes. 

Among the comic buying population, will IH 181  be 600x more popular than Cinderella 25?

Even more specifically, Among the comic buying population with the money to purchase either book, will IH 181be 600x more popular than Cinderella 25?

 

[wiparker824]

On 8/18/2023 at 11:08 AM, whomerjay said:

Among the comic buying population, will IH 181  be 600x more popular than Cinderella 25?

Even more specifically, Among the comic buying population with the money to purchase either book, will IH 181be 600x more popular than Cinderella 25?

 

That’s kind of my point. The comic book population and specifically what they like changes over time with each generation. And I’m more confident a character like Wolverine will resonate at least 600x more with the next generation when they come into the age of having money to purchase these books. It will go up and down with the market as it has been but long term I’m not really worried about Wolverine’s overall popularity going down when the next generation of collector’s arrives. I’m much more confident about that remaining popular than holding out hope a book like Cinderella Love 25 will resonate with them - which it will eventually need to do for it to have staying power at its current price point. 

[bluehorseshoe]

On 8/17/2023 at 9:31 AM, MAR1979 said:

Remember a lot of folks using comic link are also consigners so the spending of "free/found money" effect is always possible.

IMHO it's very smart to cull and consign extras of Copper key-like books and use the funds to purchase Silver.  Even I did that recently,  first time I've sold any books in over a decade in my case the credit was utilized to fund buys of high grade Silver.  yeah getting less for the copper's than if it had been 1-2 years back but the Silvers are selling for less as well so it mostly but not entirely balances out.

Welcome to ten years ago.

[Microchip]

On 8/19/2023 at 12:37 AM, october said:

Lots of good points in this thread. Hard  impossible to determine what the future will hold in terms of art trends, but given the supply, it won't take much more than a handful of deep-pocketed Baker fans to keep prices relatively high on his better work.

Really, it's hard to even compare CL 25 with Hulk 181, as the dynamics are so different. Hulk 181 sells, in most grades, virtually every day or week, which means price discovery happens in real time. Any dip in demand, any rise in demand, will immediately reflect in the auction prices. CL 25 is the complete opposite. Desireable Gold doesn't come up every day, which means price discovery happens far, far less often. Everyone knows, give or take 10-20% for QP/PQ differences, what a 181 is worth in a given grade. Not so with rare Gold, stuff like that has a much larger "market value" range because there are so few sales. Rare Gold also creates pent-up demand. The "if I don't buy this now I won't see another for years" effect. A tiny handful of determined bidders can drive something to the moon, and I suspect the bidding pool on a lot of Gold is pretty small, just not nearly as small as the supply. Hulk 181, in everything other than 9.9, doesn't create that sense of urgency. There will ALWAYS be another copy down the road in short order. 

Just looking at the top 100 books in the Overstreet over the years.  Things change, trying to predict what will rise, and what will fall is a complete guess from where we're sitting.   

[Microchip]

On 8/19/2023 at 3:29 AM, buttock said:

There are only 3 of these on the census, very tough book, and if you're trying to complete the 35 cent variant set, you may not get another chance for 10 years.  This is a collector purchase, not an investor purchase. 

Even the grade made no sense agains the price.   The 35c variant is the obvious part.  So the rest of the price is extreme scarcity, even by 35c variant standards.

[DC#]

On 8/18/2023 at 10:26 AM, dikran said:

I certainly hope so... my books are nowhere near where they ''should'' be and it's worrying.

Just finished my first sale on Collectors Comics of a nice SA Spidey.    Very pleased - book met 12 month and 90 day average (and matched prior sale).     And then no seller fee to boot…for now.    I suspect I am net +$400 better than I would have been selling on other platforms based on my recent results 

[Telegan]

On 8/18/2023 at 12:29 PM, buttock said:

There are only 3 of these on the census, very tough book, and if you're trying to complete the 35 cent variant set, you may not get another chance for 10 years.  This is a collector purchase, not an investor purchase. 

I agree.  Somebody may be out there trying to complete a 35 cent collection or something.

Another example that Dave and Rachael at Future Past Vintage Collectibles talked about on a recent episode of their YouTube channel was a copy of Rawhide Kid #141 CGC 4.5 that recently sold for over $3,000 in an auction.  If you look at that one, the last sale on GPA for a 6.5 was around $500 in 2009 and around $800 for a 5.5 in 2008.

I wish the 2 35 cent variant copies of Ms. Marvel that I have were worth that much. I randomly just bought them for around $6 each one day and only accidentally learned they were 35 cent variant copies.

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 8/18/2023 at 1:29 PM, buttock said:

There are only 3 of these on the census, very tough book, and if you're trying to complete the 35 cent variant set, you may not get another chance for 10 years.  This is a collector purchase, not an investor purchase. 

[COI]

On 8/18/2023 at 10:37 AM, october said:

Lots of good points in this thread. Hard  impossible to determine what the future will hold in terms of art trends, but given the supply, it won't take much more than a handful of deep-pocketed Baker fans to keep prices relatively high on his better work.

Really, it's hard to even compare CL 25 with Hulk 181, as the dynamics are so different. Hulk 181 sells, in most grades, virtually every day or week, which means price discovery happens in real time. Any dip in demand, any rise in demand, will immediately reflect in the auction prices. CL 25 is the complete opposite. Desireable Gold doesn't come up every day, which means price discovery happens far, far less often. Everyone knows, give or take 10-20% for QP/PQ differences, what a 181 is worth in a given grade. Not so with rare Gold, stuff like that has a much larger "market value" range because there are so few sales. Rare Gold also creates pent-up demand. The "if I don't buy this now I won't see another for years" effect. A tiny handful of determined bidders can drive something to the moon, and I suspect the bidding pool on a lot of Gold is pretty small, just not nearly as small as the supply. Hulk 181, in everything other than 9.9, doesn't create that sense of urgency. There will ALWAYS be another copy down the road in short order. 

I tend to think that the availability of Hulk 181s or GSX 1s as well as the even more common NM 98s and ASM 300s are good for the hobby overall, because they give beginner and intermediate collectors something that's worth owning and reasonably attainable. They're an entry point for people who want to get into major keys who can save up the money to buy whatever grade they want. Getting the cash in hand is the only obstacle. 

There's a sort of diminishing returns when it comes to scarcity, where the right amount of scarcity can fuel demand, but too much scarcity can work against it. I believe this is one of the reasons ASM has always been one of the most collected titles; they're always available. Of all the people who would love to own a run of Planet Comics, how many people will be dedicated enough to hunt those down, even if they have funds? Not all collectors want to spend most of their free time scouring listings on a daily basis, terrified that they may miss a once-every-5-year shot at a book they need. I know this because I'm one of those myself who gets bored too easily to keep up with that kind of quest. So not only do you have to have the funds and have your finger on the pulse, you also have that peculiar temperament. So many more barriers to entry instead of just needing the cash.

I remind myself all the time that if Hulk 181 were as scarce as something like CL 25, it would be a million dollar book. The supply is accounted for in the price, which is why a 9.0 is $9K and not $5 million. 

[october]

On 8/18/2023 at 10:05 PM, COI said:

I tend to think that the availability of Hulk 181s or GSX 1s as well as the even more common NM 98s and ASM 300s are good for the hobby overall, because they give beginner and intermediate collectors something that's worth owning and reasonably attainable. They're an entry point for people who want to get into major keys who can save up the money to buy whatever grade they want. Getting the cash in hand is the only obstacle. 

There's a sort of diminishing returns when it comes to scarcity, where the right amount of scarcity can fuel demand, but too much scarcity can work against it. I believe this is one of the reasons ASM has always been one of the most collected titles; they're always available. Of all the people who would love to own a run of Planet Comics, how many people will be dedicated enough to hunt those down, even if they have funds? Not all collectors want to spend most of their free time scouring listings on a daily basis, terrified that they may miss a once-every-5-year shot at a book they need. I know this because I'm one of those myself who gets bored too easily to keep up with that kind of quest. So not only do you have to have the funds and have your finger on the pulse, you also have that peculiar temperament. So many more barriers to entry instead of just needing the cash.

I remind myself all the time that if Hulk 181 were as scarce as something like CL 25, it would be a million dollar book. The supply is accounted for in the price, which is why a 9.0 is $9K and not $5 million. 

Sure. There's nothing wrong with Hulk 181, and not every book has to be some grand quest for an obscure rarity. I have a 181 and I have no plans to sell it. It's an awesome comic. I also have a CL 25. It's also great. 

Scarcity is absolutely a double edged sword. Most want the sweet comfort of a recent sale security blanket to guide purchases, especially when things get pricey. It takes confidence and experience to nut up on a four or five figure rarity that hasn't come up in ten years. Every once in a while I do, but more often I don't. 

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 8/18/2023 at 11:05 PM, COI said:

There's a sort of diminishing returns when it comes to scarcity, where the right amount of scarcity can fuel demand, but too much scarcity can work against it.

There's a reverse (inverse?) of this principle too, in which demand can influence scarcity, though it requires a more nuanced take on supply. 

There are books that (presumably) exist in great numbers raw, but don't get graded as often as books of similar age and therefore appear to be in "low supply" in the CGC census.  Without bothering to back this up with data, I'll just say anecdotally that in my search to fill in late-Silver and early-Bronze 9.6 WP Marvel runs, the hardest title by far is Daredevil -- and I imagine it's not because these books are literally scarce, but more that there's much less interest in them and therefore fewer people bother to slab them and bring them to market.

[MatterEaterLad]

On 8/13/2023 at 10:16 PM, MyNameIsLegion said:

The market dipped a bit due to the Great Recession, which had a tremendous macro-economic impact on collecting, but pandemic buying and easy money fueled a whole other level of tulip-mania. These things never end well, and when they end, they end with greater finality than just a cyclical turn. this may not be 1982 stamp collecting level Armageddon, in part because the comics are the pop-culture engine. However, what CGC has done to the hobby has it parallels. The manufactured collectibility of a plastic case sporting a label and a number is backed only by the faith and interest of those willing to buy it. Little, if anything printed in the last 50 years is genuinely rare, including the subset that has been slabbed which only goes up, and suddenly your high census copy is average, and priced accordingly. 

We are also entering the twilight of the boomer impact on pop-culture, the WW2 generation has largely passed. Comics are an artifact of their era. They created it all. Gen-X is the last generation to remember spinner racks, and cheap plastic super-hero Halloween masks at the grocery store.  Just as Radio shows, comic strips, train-sets, pulps, westerns, have faded out, comics too have a finite lifespan. The MCU was the pinnacle of all our boyhood fantasies, to see what we could only dream of leap off the page of newsprint and onto a 4K high def screen. And then, like with most things, it became routine, repetitive, commonplace, and the last several years of movies, despite being cooped up during the pandemic, audience are largely...bored. The bulk of the population under 45 doesn't especially care about comics. They don't buy, read,slab and store them with the same fervor older generations would be inclined to. Sure, some here defy the odds, but you don't change the odds. They will never, ever match what previous generations felt, because their experience was very different growing up. They will gravitate towards those Pokemon cards, or some game system.

The majority of boomers are in their 70's, their stuff is going to flood all levels of resale and collecting. Much of it, stored away in their McMansions, garages, and storage units will not be absorbed by their children and grandchildren. They don't want it, can't store it, won't use it.  I know this from experience, having spent the last few years winding down my parents, grandparents, and now in-laws houses and estates.  Most of it went in the trash or was donated or given away. You need a set of wedding china? How about 4? The market will ultimately be awash in comics. Supply will exceed demand. that's just the way it is. It's just math, and math don't care about anyone's feelings or opinions or anecdotal experience.  

I think this is spot on. I've been saying the same for a while. The supply is growing too fast and the demand is....retiring, selling, dying.

There will always be collectors, but I worry non-key books in mid to low grade will decline and then flatline for a very long time. 

[Bookery]

On 8/19/2023 at 9:27 AM, MatterEaterLad said:

I think this is spot on. I've been saying the same for a while. The supply is growing too fast and the demand is....retiring, selling, dying.

There will always be collectors, but I worry non-key books in mid to low grade will decline and then flatline for a very long time. 

It depends upon the price point.  The one thing that has remained steady these past few years are less-expensive non-key silver & bronze.  Most books that were in the $5 to $20 range before the pandemic held steady through the pandemic and are still $5 to $20 books today.  They didn't rise, they didn't drop.  If anything, I'm selling more of these than ever before, as some collectors are now wary of paying $100-$200 for a key or semi-key that has been falling steadily for months, unsure of where the bottom is.  Moderns are a different story... with a lot of once-$20 books now back in the $1-$5 boxes.

[DC#]

On 8/19/2023 at 6:27 AM, MatterEaterLad said:

I think this is spot on. I've been saying the same for a while. The supply is growing too fast and the demand is....retiring, selling, dying.

There will always be collectors, but I worry non-key books in mid to low grade will decline and then flatline for a very long time. 

It would be really interesting to see the market analysis Blackstone used in their purchase of CGC.   Granted, private equity rarely is concerned with the really long game but would still be interesting to see what their thesis of collecting and the comic market was.

On 8/19/2023 at 6:58 AM, Bookery said:

It depends upon the price point.  The one thing that has remained steady these past few years are less-expensive non-key silver & bronze.  Most books that were in the $5 to $20 range before the pandemic held steady through the pandemic and are still $5 to $20 books today.  They didn't rise, they didn't drop.  If anything, I'm selling more of these than ever before, as some collectors are now wary of paying $100-$200 for a key or semi-key that has been falling steadily for months, unsure of where the bottom is.  Moderns are a different story... with a lot of once-$20 books now back in the $1-$5 boxes.

I really appreciate the dealer POV on current demos that are buying at shows/LCS.   I still feel there is a sizable 40s and under crowd when I am at shows.   And though I appreciate the medium is driven by younger people, almost all of the YouTubers (and IGers) focused on creating comic collecting content are pretty young (Comic Tom, Swagglehaus, Mint Hunter, Automatic Comics, Very Gary, Comic Book Investments, Bry, Lunch Money, Longbox Love Affair, Golden Age Guru, etc).    I think the sports card market probably has an even more dynamic pop of younger participants.   Watched some videos from the National and there were young people and kids seemingly everywhere.  

[Nick Furious]

On 8/19/2023 at 8:58 AM, Bookery said:

It depends upon the price point.  The one thing that has remained steady these past few years are less-expensive non-key silver & bronze.  Most books that were in the $5 to $20 range before the pandemic held steady through the pandemic and are still $5 to $20 books today.  They didn't rise, they didn't drop.  If anything, I'm selling more of these than ever before, as some collectors are now wary of paying $100-$200 for a key or semi-key that has been falling steadily for months, unsure of where the bottom is.  Moderns are a different story... with a lot of once-$20 books now back in the $1-$5 boxes.

Honestly, that's exactly where my buying has been for the last year.  Just looking at my MCS history since Oct 2022:  $2,000 before taxes and shipping spent for 116 comic books.  That's $17 per book average.  If you take out the 10 most expensive it's probably closer to $10 average.  Just pure collection buying and run-filling with no expectation of reselling any of them in the next decade.  I'm sure I'm not the only one.  

[Morganmi]

On 8/19/2023 at 9:58 AM, Bookery said:

It depends upon the price point.  The one thing that has remained steady these past few years are less-expensive non-key silver & bronze.  Most books that were in the $5 to $20 range before the pandemic held steady through the pandemic and are still $5 to $20 books today.  They didn't rise, they didn't drop.  If anything, I'm selling more of these than ever before, as some collectors are now wary of paying $100-$200 for a key or semi-key that has been falling steadily for months, unsure of where the bottom is.  Moderns are a different story... with a lot of once-$20 books now back in the $1-$5 boxes.

I concure with this. At the lcs that i volunteer my time, the regular bin comics are flying out and can't seem to keep the boxes full. The keys are very slow compared to the years past.

Grade also dosnt even seem to matter as 2-5$ book are going out to readers who see the cost for new books and look at these as a bargain. Another trend I've noticed here is that we cant keep the younger crowd (funny animal, richie rich, archie) type books in stock at all. Kids and moms and dads are buying this stuff up on rainy days by the stack.

Overall it seems to me that the future and younger generation interest of comics is in decent health. Its the spec market that is in another boom- bust cycle but im betting, if your in it for the long term, quality keys will continue to do well as they have for the last 50 years. 

[COI]

On 8/19/2023 at 8:26 AM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

There's a reverse (inverse?) of this principle too, in which demand can influence scarcity, though it requires a more nuanced take on supply. 

There are books that (presumably) exist in great numbers raw, but don't get graded as often as books of similar age and therefore appear to be in "low supply" in the CGC census.  Without bothering to back this up with data, I'll just say anecdotally that in my search to fill in late-Silver and early-Bronze 9.6 WP Marvel runs, the hardest title by far is Daredevil -- and I imagine it's not because these books are literally scarce, but more that there's much less interest in them and therefore fewer people bother to slab them and bring them to market.

For sure. If you stumbled on someone's 50 year accumulation of books, the first thing you would do is pull out the keys. If there are a lot of keys, that's where your resources are going, and by resources, those are the books you're going to purchase, sort, press, submit, whatever. Even if you are a sophisticated enough dealer/collector to recognize that there are some early '70s Daredevils that are 9.8 candidates, and that those issues are almost non-existent on the census, those will be way lower on the priority list to be processed. And that's if you already have a 50 year accumulation in front of you, ready for processing, which doesn't happen to 99% of people who are out there buying and selling books. So even with knowledge and access, it's an uphill battle for those early bronze DDs to end up in 9.8 holders. For someone like you who's waiting for them to show up so that you can buy them, that's why you can expect to have to pay a premium that, in some cases, might seem completely out of touch with reality. 

As a corollary to this with regards to the census, books that are extremely popular also get cracked and resubmitted so often that the census becomes unreliable and we get a distorted sense of how common they actually are. The census for something like Hulk 181 only tells you that lots of people submit Hulk 181s; it tells you almost nothing about how many Hulk 181s exist in a certain grade, nor does it tell you how many are available for purchase at any given time, because it doesn't account for the "ghosts", nor does it account for how many people are holding or even hoarding long term. This is why I don't pay all that much attention to the census on books like Hulk 181 or ASM 300; people get so fixated on how big the numbers are, when they mean almost nothing and when they can't be properly compared to low census GA or obscure and/or low demand SA/BA in any coherent way.

[Stefan_W]

On 8/18/2023 at 7:45 PM, DC# said:

Just finished my first sale on Collectors Comics of a nice SA Spidey.    Very pleased - book met 12 month and 90 day average (and matched prior sale).     And then no seller fee to boot…for now.    I suspect I am net +$400 better than I would have been selling on other platforms based on my recent results 

I am not finding any deals to bid on there which is a great sign for sellers. I am considering sending a few books in to them to auction off just to see what happens. 

[Microchip]

On 8/19/2023 at 10:26 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

On 8/19/2023 at 1:05 PM, COI said:

There's a sort of diminishing returns when it comes to scarcity, where the right amount of scarcity can fuel demand, but too much scarcity can work against it.

There's a reverse (inverse?) of this principle too, in which demand can influence scarcity, though it requires a more nuanced take on supply. 

There are books that (presumably) exist in great numbers raw, but don't get graded as often as books of similar age and therefore appear to be in "low supply" in the CGC census.  Without bothering to back this up with data, I'll just say anecdotally that in my search to fill in late-Silver and early-Bronze 9.6 WP Marvel runs, the hardest title by far is Daredevil -- and I imagine it's not because these books are literally scarce, but more that there's much less interest in them and therefore fewer people bother to slab them and bring them to market.

You have to keep in mind condition is also a factor of scarcity.   There's plenty of examples of in demand books, with plenty of copies around, but no high grade examples available, or on the census.

Also, what we see with CPV books, the high grades fill out first.   The books are only worth money (for the bulk of them) is the rubber gets a 9.6 grade or better.   So only the very copies are going through to CGC at this point.   The time, effort, and money involved vs the potential return simply isn't there for a casual subbing of CPV books.   So the census reflects guys active in the market, pulling out their best copies to be subbed and sold.

 

[Upgrayedd2]

Based on the latest sale of Punch Comics #12, they are dropping at an exponential rate. Looks like further confirmation price drop are going into Golden Aged comics.

Punch Comics #12, CGC 1.5 : $2,325.00 on 19 AUG 2023

Last CGC 1.5 sold for $14,400 in SEP 2022 : 84% drop in price