Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[wiparker824]

On 9/3/2023 at 2:48 PM, DC# said:

No doubt.  Looking at full picture in GPA is very helpful while pursuing specific books.   
 

Wondering aloud here without actually going back through the CL data I have compiled for nearly two years now - have the Clink auction results actually been a leading indicator?   Have they proceeded the declines that then show up in the month(s) that followed on EBay, etc?   Especially in the average silver, bronze, copper and modern books.   And if that is the case, will they continue as leading indicator if prices turn?    I wasn’t watching closely during the boom days to know how out in front Clink might have been vs other GPA contributors 

The books I did buy in the boom days on CL were generally ~10% less than what they were going on eBay and HA. Those 2 in particular during the boom days were hitting crazy prices. What I was buying was low-mid grade SA books, I think if it was a high grade key it didn’t matter where it was being sold, prices were going to the moon. Of course this is all anecdotal as it was just the books I was bidding on not the site as a whole but that’s what I remember - and why I really only was buying from CL during that time. I guess you could say that’s a leading indicator since prices started falling after that but I didn’t really think of it that way. I thought more it was during peak of the FOMO/sport card/crypto speculators entering the hobby and the 2 sites that had the most reach and marketing (HA, eBay) to the general public did the best. 

[VintageComics]

On 9/4/2023 at 4:26 AM, jimjum12 said:

It's a shame we can't create a factor that can be applied that addresses the ABSENCE of data

Well, once we do that we'll have discovered the "God" particle and then it would all be over as we know it...

[MAR1979]

On 9/3/2023 at 8:34 PM, VintageComics said:

Yup. Prices are always rising and dropping. 

At this point, we all know 2021 was a bubble and comparing prices to the height of the bubble is kind of pointless in the context of this discussion. 

 

 

Yep  most of 2020-early 2022 was an anomaly that will never happen again for anyone over 40.  best to plot x as 2019 and y as 2023

 

Of course there are always exception and outliers but hobby as whole is not just those.

Edited September 5, 2023 by MAR1979

[VintageComics]

On 9/4/2023 at 10:47 PM, MAR1979 said:

On 9/3/2023 at 8:34 PM, VintageComics said:

 

Yep  most of 2020-early 2022 was an anomaly that will never happen again for anyone over 40.  best to plot x as 2019 and y as 2023

I would never say never. 

We had a bubble in the 90s.

We had a bubble across the entire hobby when CGC formed. 

We had another bubble across the entire hobby during the *** gosh darnit I can't say it because only everyone else can say it but not me *** - let's call it the "time of great travail" because I like Biblical terms.

That's 3 bubbles in the last 30 years. 

Albeit the 1st one was really just new books, but the last 2 were DEFINITELY hobby wide and affects most books. 

We just have NO idea what the future holds in terms of prices. 

 

Edited September 5, 2023 by VintageComics

[World Devourer]

On 9/5/2023 at 12:55 PM, VintageComics said:

 

We just have NO idea what the future holds in terms of prices. 

 

Exactly. There will be another surge - eventually.

Everything goes in cycles.

Patience is the watchword now.

[jimjum12]

On 9/4/2023 at 10:55 PM, VintageComics said:

We just have NO idea what the future holds in terms of prices.

There is no future, Roy ... only now. The notion of future is merely a type of psychosis caused by a profound lack of data, and a severe biological inadequacy to process that data. GOD BLESS .... 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

Edited September 6, 2023 by jimjum12

[MAR1979]

On 9/5/2023 at 5:08 AM, World Devourer said:

Exactly. There will be another surge - eventually.

Everything goes in cycles.

Patience is the watchword now.

Patience in this case is a product of projected life span. Many here who wait with fingers crossed for next bubble will still have those fingers crossed in their coffins.

The larger the bubble the larger the burst. Effects from the just ended bubble will be in force for at least the next decade.  

 

Edited September 5, 2023 by MAR1979

[EastEnd1]

On 9/4/2023 at 10:55 PM, VintageComics said:

I would never say never. 

We had a bubble in the 90s.

We had a bubble across the entire hobby when CGC formed. 

We had another bubble across the entire hobby during the *** gosh darnit I can't say it because only everyone else can say it but not me *** - let's call it the "time of great travail" because I like Biblical terms.

That's 3 bubbles in the last 30 years. 

Albeit the 1st one was really just new books, but the last 2 were DEFINITELY hobby wide and affects most books. 

We just have NO idea what the future holds in terms of prices. 

 

Agreed... there will inevitably be more bubble(s)... the unknown is what will the catalyst be.  I've been equating the "unprecedented" recent bubble to the early 2000s bubble for a while now.  The only difference I see (besides the catalysts) is that the early 2000s bubble was across the board while the recent bubble was largely limited to keys, semi-keys, and a whole bunch of newly identified keys and semi-keys.  I have plenty of run books that I bought during the CGC bubble that I still haven't recovered from, even at the peak of the recent bubble... 

Edited September 5, 2023 by EastEnd1

[Robot Man]

[batmiesta]

Pretty good price on this book.  FRANKENSTEIN #4, CGC 9.8 NM/MT - THE AUCTION HAS ENDED 1973, Mike Ploog cover Current Bid: $907 Number Of Bids: 21  Add to WantList  [Sell One Of These]

[batmiesta]

The bloke that paid $4500 for a copy of this during the comic boom must be pretty pissed. 

GIANT-SIZE AVENGERS #1, CGC 9.8 NM/MT - THE AUCTION HAS ENDED 1974, All-Winners Squad flashback. 1st Nuklo appearance. High Evolutionary and the Whizzer appearance.

Current Bid: $653 Number Of Bids: 38  Add to WantList  [Sell One Of These]

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 9/5/2023 at 11:08 AM, batmiesta said:

The bloke that paid $4500 for a copy of this during the comic boom must be pretty pissed. 

GIANT-SIZE AVENGERS #1, CGC 9.8 NM/MT - THE AUCTION HAS ENDED 1974, All-Winners Squad flashback. 1st Nuklo appearance. High Evolutionary and the Whizzer appearance.

Current Bid: $653 Number Of Bids: 38  Add to WantList  [Sell One Of These]

Avengers #1 is one of the more common and easy-to-find of the Giant-Size books.  Definitely not one to chase after that hard! 

[MAR1979]

On 9/5/2023 at 11:08 AM, batmiesta said:

The bloke that paid $4500 for a copy of this during the comic boom must be pretty pissed. 

GIANT-SIZE AVENGERS #1, CGC 9.8 NM/MT - THE AUCTION HAS ENDED 1974, All-Winners Squad flashback. 1st Nuklo appearance. High Evolutionary and the Whizzer appearance.

Current Bid: $653 Number Of Bids: 38  Add to WantList  [Sell One Of These]

And how many who are taking losses like that will remain in hobby? My guess is very very few.

Those who have money to burn can do so much better with other investments... 

A collectible bubble almost always requires heavy support from the unexperienced to overpay aka rubes. That occurs pretty much once generation. The 2 most recent to suck in decent amount of gen pop rubes were early 90s and the just ended pandemic bubble. That is why I say many over 40 will not see again in their lifespan. 

Bottom line; time is relentless and human life is fleeting!

 

Aint i just a little ray of sunshine

Edited September 5, 2023 by MAR1979

[bluehorseshoe]

On 9/5/2023 at 11:08 AM, batmiesta said:

The bloke that paid $4500 for a copy of this during the comic boom must be pretty pissed. 

GIANT-SIZE AVENGERS #1, CGC 9.8 NM/MT - THE AUCTION HAS ENDED 1974, All-Winners Squad flashback. 1st Nuklo appearance. High Evolutionary and the Whizzer appearance.

Current Bid: $653 Number Of Bids: 38  Add to WantList  [Sell One Of These]

Now do all of your overspends during the same time.

[DC#]

On 9/5/2023 at 8:49 AM, MAR1979 said:

 

Bottom line; time is relentless and human life is fleeting!

 

 Well I am cheered up........

[World Devourer]

On 9/5/2023 at 10:33 PM, MAR1979 said:

Patience in this case is a product of projected life span. Many here who wait with fingers crossed for next bubble will still have those fingers crossed in their coffins.

The larger the bubble the larger the burst. Effects from the just ended bubble will be in force for at least the next decade.  

 

1.  I am young.

2. I picked the right items.

3. I can afford to wait (see also Point 1).

[VintageComics]

On 9/5/2023 at 11:49 AM, MAR1979 said:

And how many who are taking losses like that will remain in hobby? My guess is very very few.

Do you want someone in the hobby who is just going to pump and dump?

On 9/5/2023 at 8:33 AM, MAR1979 said:

The larger the bubble the larger the burst. Effects from the just ended bubble will be in force for at least the next decade.  

The last bubble was not a hobby bubble.

It was a socio-economic bubble that was created by policy decisions.

If we see a bubble like that again anytime soon, I'd be more worried about where I'm going to be sleeping at night than where my comic books are sleeping.

Edited September 5, 2023 by VintageComics

[MyNameIsLegion]

On 9/5/2023 at 1:16 PM, World Devourer said:

1.  I am young.

1.5 I don't have Student Loans

1.6 I didn't think the student loan payment freeze would give me the extra $$$ to invest in comics that are now 70% down from 2021

1.7 I'm not using my now devalued comics to pay my deferred student loans that kick in soon

2. I picked the right items.

3. I can afford to wait (see also Point 1).

fixed that for ya! 

[VintageComics]

On 9/5/2023 at 5:45 AM, jimjum12 said:

On 9/4/2023 at 10:55 PM, VintageComics said:

We just have NO idea what the future holds in terms of prices.

There is no future, Roy ... only now. The notion of future is merely a type of psychosis caused by a profound lack of data. GOD BLESS .... 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

I've come to accept that most have no clue how to analyze their own gaps in data and analyze trajectory of the future from the present.

This is so evident it's been painful. 

[Cman429]

If analyzing data and predicting future trends was an exact science there’d be a lot more billionaires on Wall Street. I’m sure there are a few Michael Burry’s of comics but generally the entire market is reactionary. “James Gunn liked a tweet saying Matter Eater Lad is awesome! Quick! Change the price on his first appearance from $20 to $200!” 

As I’ve said before, I look forward to the day the MCU and DCU go away. That’s when we’ll know the true value of everything associated with comics.