Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[Microchip]

On 10/18/2023 at 2:52 PM, DC# said:

I was shocked but actually that price is in line with GPA Last/12 month of 3200 and 2022 avg of 3750.    Had no idea is was selling for as much as a 9.8 #194, 238, or 300.

Time to get into... WTH!!   Even DarkHawk costs real money to collect!!!

The fact that guys are paying more than $50 for this book stagers me  

 

[Tec-Tac-Toe]

Unfortunately, many folks were either never taught or never learned how to save money. Perhaps many of them purchase comic books when they can't afford to, possibly including new releases; not even relatively expensive variants, but "run of the mill" comic books. Likely, many purchase them on credit and end up paying much more for a new release comic books that may be "worthless" in a week. Of course, folks can spend their money on comic books as they wish.  

[lou_fine]

On 10/17/2023 at 9:38 PM, Microchip said:

The fact that guys are paying more than $50 for this book stagers me  

The fact that submittors would even consider sending in a book like this in the first place for certification hoping to to find a CGC 9.8 at the end of the CGC grading rainbow staggers me.  

[MAR1979]

On 10/17/2023 at 11:52 PM, DC# said:

I was shocked but actually that price is in line with GPA Last/12 month of 3200 and 2022 avg of 3750.    Had no idea it was selling for as much as a 9.8 #194, 238, or 300.

That is now 1/3 or more than 194 and  238 command in 9.8.  I do feel especially sorry for the suckers who purchased either at 4K, 5k or even higher while some here during the bubble continually mention "unlimited upwards trajectory" or similar self-serving sales bile, while those with actual Comic, Economic and Financial acumen were scoffed at.
 

	Item Title: Amazing Spider-man # 194 cgc 9.8 1 st Black Cat Stan Lee Direct 300 Sale Price: 2,226.00 USD Auction → Number of Bids:  31  Sale Date: Oct 3 2023
	Item Title: Amazing Spider-man # 194 cgc 9.8 1 st Black Cat Stan Lee Direct 300 Sale Price: 2,400.00 USD Auction → Number of Bids:  44  Sale Date: Sep 19 2023

 

	Item Title: Amazing Spider-man # 238 cgc 9.8 1st App of Hobgoblin  Stan Lee Newsstand Romita Sale Price: 2,583.88 USD Auction → Number of Bids:  49  Sale Date: Oct 17 2023
	Item Title: Amazing Spider-Man #238 CGC 9.8 White Absolutely Stunning! 1st App of Hobgoblin Sale Price: 1,608.00 USD Auction → Number of Bids:  44  Sale Date: Oct 3 2023

 

At one point each in 9.4 was going for over $1000.  Those who paid those amounts for 9.4's are no longer "good" as was mentioned early in the main #194 thread.

 

Edited October 21, 2023 by MAR1979

[piper]

On 10/18/2023 at 8:20 AM, MAR1979 said:

That is now 1/3 or more than 194 and  238 command in 9.8.  I do feel especially sorry for the suckers who purchased either at 4K, 5k or even higher while some here during the bubble continually mention "unlimited upwards trajectory" or similar self-serving sales bile, while those with actual Comic, Economic and Financial acumen were scoffed at.
 

	Item Title: Amazing Spider-man # 194 cgc 9.8 1 st Black Cat Stan Lee Direct 300 Sale Price: 2,226.00 USD Auction → Number of Bids:  31  Sale Date: Oct 3 2023
	Item Title: Amazing Spider-man # 194 cgc 9.8 1 st Black Cat Stan Lee Direct 300 Sale Price: 2,400.00 USD Auction → Number of Bids:  44  Sale Date: Sep 19 2023

 

	Item Title: Amazing Spider-man # 238 cgc 9.8 1st App of Hobgoblin  Stan Lee Newsstand Romita Sale Price: 2,583.88 USD Auction → Number of Bids:  49  Sale Date: Oct 17 2023
	Item Title: Amazing Spider-Man #238 CGC 9.8 White Absolutely Stunning! 1st App of Hobgoblin Sale Price: 1,608.00 USD Auction → Number of Bids:  44  Sale Date: Oct 3 2023

 

At one point each in 9.4 was going for over $1000.  Those who have 9.4's are no longer "good" as was mentioned they were early in the main #194 thread.

 

It might be time for me to look for a High Grade 194 & 238.  I sold them many moon ago assuming that I'd upgrade but got scared off by the crazy prices.

[MAR1979]

On 10/18/2023 at 11:16 AM, piper said:

It might be time for me to look for a High Grade 194 & 238.  I sold them many moon ago assuming that I'd upgrade but got scared off by the crazy prices.

I'd expect another 10% drop soon especially as year end nears.  Impossible to predict a bottom of any market of course,  but for comics the underlying causes have not changed all year. In Sept I pulled the trigger on some minor Bronze/Copper keys (not ASM but one 1979 X-Men) only to see they have already dropped more than 10% in FMV, falling to near 2019 levels.

 

Edited October 19, 2023 by MAR1979

[DC#]

On 10/18/2023 at 7:20 AM, MAR1979 said:

That is now 1/3 or more than 194 and  238 command in 9.8.  I do feel especially sorry for the suckers who purchased either at 4K, 5k or even higher while some here during the bubble continually mention "unlimited upwards trajectory" or similar self-serving sales bile, while those with actual Comic, Economic and Financial acumen were scoffed at.
 

	Item Title: Amazing Spider-man # 194 cgc 9.8 1 st Black Cat Stan Lee Direct 300 Sale Price: 2,226.00 USD Auction → Number of Bids:  31  Sale Date: Oct 3 2023
	Item Title: Amazing Spider-man # 194 cgc 9.8 1 st Black Cat Stan Lee Direct 300 Sale Price: 2,400.00 USD Auction → Number of Bids:  44  Sale Date: Sep 19 2023

 

	Item Title: Amazing Spider-man # 238 cgc 9.8 1st App of Hobgoblin  Stan Lee Newsstand Romita Sale Price: 2,583.88 USD Auction → Number of Bids:  49  Sale Date: Oct 17 2023
	Item Title: Amazing Spider-Man #238 CGC 9.8 White Absolutely Stunning! 1st App of Hobgoblin Sale Price: 1,608.00 USD Auction → Number of Bids:  44  Sale Date: Oct 3 2023

 

At one point each in 9.4 was going for over $1000.  Those who have 9.4's are no longer "good" as was mentioned they were early in the main #194 thread.

 

ASM 194 has been bouncing between mid-$2k and mid-$3k for all of 2023.    The Heritage sale at $3k last night was a near perfect wrap vs those two Ebay examples which probably drove it up a bit.    And looking back to sales are recently as August, $3k doesn't seem that out of line.     Also interesting that the Sept sale of $2400 doesn't show up in GPA...wonder what happened.   

 

Edited October 18, 2023 by DC#

[troydivision1]

Continued tracking of my 50 piece personal collection's value for insurance purposes.
I am utilizing eBay sold items (with auctions taking priority over buy-it-now) to determine FMV.

January to February          1.94% decrease
February to March             4.25% increase
March to April                     0.82% increase
April to May                        2.53% decrease
May to June                       2.08% decrease
June to July                       4.19% increase
July to August                    1.63% increase
August to September         1.67% decrease
September to October         .13% decrease

[Microchip]

On 10/19/2023 at 3:03 AM, DC# said:

ASM 194 has been bouncing between mid-$2k and mid-$3k for all of 2023.    The Heritage sale at $3k last night was a near perfect wrap vs those two Ebay examples which probably drove it up a bit.    And looking back to sales are recently as August, $3k doesn't seem that out of line.     Also interesting that the Sept sale of $2400 doesn't show up in GPA...wonder what happened.   

 

 

 

[Tnexus]

If the $600 1099 limit goes through in 2023, I'd expect to see some prices drop early 2024.

Edited October 20, 2023 by Tnexus

[Microchip]

On 10/20/2023 at 11:00 AM, Tnexus said:

If the $600 1099 limit goes through in 2023, I'd expect to see some prices drop early 2024.

Ebay would be top of the IRS's compliance reporting list for this item.   Though they only have addresses, not tax declarations in their clients account details.   Delivery address isn't proof of anything.

[Gator Guru]

On 10/19/2023 at 8:00 PM, Tnexus said:

If the $600 1099 limit goes through in 2023, I'd expect to see some prices drop early 2024.

This and student loans coming due are what I consider the two other hammers that will likely fall and lead to even lower prices.

[MAR1979]

On 10/19/2023 at 9:13 PM, Microchip said:

Ebay would be top of the IRS's compliance reporting list for this item.   Though they only have addresses, not tax declarations in their clients account details.   Delivery address isn't proof of anything.

eBay has records of how much each seller made for the year.  I thought that is what is sought and who is affected

Edited October 20, 2023 by MAR1979

[DC#]

"Jay Powell will keep saying inflation is too high until consumers believe him"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jay-powell-will-keep-saying-inflation-is-too-high-until-consumers-believe-him-100020733.html

The September retail sales report was much stronger than expected and August was revised even higher.   I bet the Fed would welcome some of the headwinds above doing a little more to blunt consumer spending.  Seems like many of the economic factors/variables are still not behaving in the normally predictive manner.     

I would be interested to understand more about volume of sales now vs prior years.    I did a quick look at ASM 300 in 9.6 on GPA (popular book with ample supply) just to see how active it is currently.     2023 is on track to be the lowest volume of transactions since 2015/2016.   With a census of ~4000 in 9.6, 4% will change hands this year vs peak of around 7% in 2018 (and was probably higher than 7% as I assume the census has grown since then).    Would also be curious what the typical mix of GPA results are for BIN vs auction.     Are there fewer books being offered at auction this year (which could help support price stabilization)?   Are BIN books just sitting with no offers?      

Last sale of this book in October 2023 is half of the 2021 average.   How much lower might it be if there had been another 100 copies made available this year or available at more attractive prices?  

For the record - I do not own this book so I have no personal angle on it.   

 

 

Edited October 20, 2023 by DC#

[VintageComics]

On 10/20/2023 at 11:40 AM, DC# said:

"Jay Powell will keep saying inflation is too high until consumers believe him"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jay-powell-will-keep-saying-inflation-is-too-high-until-consumers-believe-him-100020733.html

The September retail sales report was much stronger than expected and August was revised even higher.   I bet the Fed would welcome some of the headwinds above doing a little more to blunt consumer spending.  Seems like many of the economic factors/variables are still not behaving in the normally predictive manner.     

I would be interested to understand more about volume of sales now vs prior years.    I did a quick look at ASM 300 in 9.6 on GPA (popular book with ample supply) just to see how active it is currently.     2023 is on track to be the lowest volume of transactions since 2015/2016.   With a census of ~4000 in 9.6, 4% will change hands this year vs peak of around 7% in 2018 (and was probably higher than 7% as I assume the census has grown since then).    Would also be curious what the typical mix of GPA results are for BIN vs auction.     Are there fewer books being offered at auction this year (which could help support price stabilization)?   Are BIN books just sitting with no offers?      

Last sale of this book in October 2023 is half of the 2021 average.   How much lower might it be if there had been another 100 copies made available this year or available at more attractive prices?  

For the record - I do not own this book so I have no personal angle on it.   

 

 

I wonder why 2018 sold so many copies?

The Venom movie came out in 2018 and the Carnage movie came out in 2021. 

These movies have REAL effects on sales volume. 

I wouldn't be surprised if movie houses and creators got into side gigs of flipping books and manipulating the market with movies to control prices. 

Just buy up a billion dollars in ASM #300's, announce a new venom movie and then sell off as the movie is being produced. 

All of a sudden your $1Billion revenue movie nets you $2BIL. 

Why not? Anything goes these days. 

 

[squidmo2000]

Roy,you are a funny man.....

[VintageComics]

On 10/20/2023 at 10:52 PM, squidmo2000 said:

Roy,you are a funny man.....

My mom says I'm funny. Funny looking that is. 

Credit must go to @davidpg the @Microchip shill who gave me this line. 

[bluehorseshoe]

On 10/18/2023 at 5:02 AM, Tec-Tac-Toe said:

Unfortunately, many folks were either never taught or never learned how to save money. Perhaps many of them purchase comic books when they can't afford to, possibly including new releases; not even relatively expensive variants, but "run of the mill" comic books. Likely, many purchase them on credit and end up paying much more for a new release comic books that may be "worthless" in a week. Of course, folks can spend their money on comic books as they wish.  

Love it that you feel that you need to mention that everybody has your permission to buy what they want. 

[DC#]

Big big differences here.   ComicLink OW 6.5 sitting at $46.5k with just under 48 hours to go while a 6.5 OW/W just closed for right at $35k on eBay.    
 

[MatterEaterLad]

On 10/22/2023 at 9:45 PM, DC# said:

Big big differences here.   ComicLink OW 6.5 sitting at $46.5k with just under 48 hours to go while a 6.5 OW/W just closed for right at $35k on eBay.    
 

I see this all the time. Big auction houses bringing in hefty prices while virtually the same book sells at almost the same time for 20% less on eBay. But WOW, that's a huge difference. In related news, I've been picking up bargains on eBay for the past month. Big buyers giving up on that site?