Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[VintageComics]

On 11/1/2023 at 12:55 PM, drotto said:

I think those titles are just going to sit about there for at least the next 2 or 3 years, then start to rebound. 

That seems to ever be the pattern. People who don't need to sell just hold, the market gets a bit stagnant then when things start to look cheap due to a new movie, deflation or whatever, they start to climb again. 

I've said this a lot but if your comics suddenly drop in value overnight, that's going to be due to much larger problems than just the hobby and if that's the case pretty everything else will drop in value too and the only thing you'll is some of this.

 

Edited November 1, 2023 by VintageComics

[MatterEaterLad]

On 11/1/2023 at 12:59 PM, VintageComics said:

Plus, not only has the population expanded but the collecting base within the population expanded as comics and movies spread to other countries where they had never been.

It hasn't. Population growth has virtually flatlined since 2021. And growth is projected to be minimal for the next 30 years. 

The other doomsayers were reacting to the economy. This is totally new territory with a generation of boomers (I'm guessing you're among them?) shrinking as they die and they're not being replaced with people who have any youth-driven emotional connection to SA comics. Connected to the movies, yes. Actual comics, not as much. Publishing stats reflect this. 

I'm not saying that's what's happening, or will happen, but it's a concern of mine. 

[VintageComics]

On 11/1/2023 at 4:45 PM, MatterEaterLad said:

On 11/1/2023 at 2:59 PM, VintageComics said:

Plus, not only has the population expanded but the collecting base within the population expanded as comics and movies spread to other countries where they had never been.

It hasn't. Population growth has virtually flatlined since 2021. And growth is projected to be minimal for the next 30 years.

I'm well aware of the stagnation of the population and how the fears of overpopulation were unfounded AND fear mongered to the point where we now have to worry about the world's population declining and I'm aware that new research shows that the earth can handle WAY MORE people than are alive on it now, meaning those population fears were overblown.

What I meant was that for the past 90 years that the hobby has been around, population growth was a LARGE part of the inflation of prices of everything including comics. Demand increases. 

Plus, while we may have a few stagnant or slow years, but you're only thinking short term. We WILL start expanding the population again. You have to or the earth goes extinct.

So over a much larger timeline you still still experience population growth. 

Plus the hobby continues expand into new arenas you get new exposure. 

Anyway, all this to say I'm just not that bearish long term anymore after reading about the inevitable collapse of the hobby since I got here. 

 

[Nick Furious]

On 11/1/2023 at 8:41 AM, Hamlet said:

I think you’re describing more of a base case than a “worst case”.  Comics have been in a strong bull market pretty much since the first Iron Man movie came out.  People got used to prices always going up.  That price action pulls in a ton of speculators and a ton of people that are just FOMO types.  That dynamic is reversing now.  We don’t really know how many of those people actually have a long term interest in collecting comics that don’t necessarily go up most years.

I think it is pretty clear that interest in the Marvel movies peaked with Endgame, and it isn’t likely to ever return to that level again.  I’m a comic book guy, and I’m pretty tired of comic book movies and shows.  It doesn’t take a large drop in marginal demand for it to have a big impact on prices.

That said, I’m starting to buy at least a few non-dollar book items again.  Prices have dropped enough that I’m interested in buying the cheaper stuff I’m missing.  

I think that's a valid point.  I'm only thinking of true collectors, those who got interested in books they never considered before but stayed on the sidelines as prices rose.  I think they can help cushion a bottom as prices fall.  But there are also speculators who got in as prices rose and now need to get out as prices fall.  They could puncture a hole in that cushion.   

[Microchip]

On 11/2/2023 at 3:49 AM, MatterEaterLad said:

I do worry that we'll eventually hit a peak, where an overwhelming number of older collectors sell/retire/die with no one to replace them.

As the market accumulates too many books without enough buyers, mid-grade SA flattens out for decades (or only matches inflation) while mega keys and ultra high-grade SA books skyrocket. 

The trends so far are strongly geared around the highest population books.   Guy's are subbing books in demand.   The total population of books out there is largely irrelevant, as the absolute population of a book is never listed for sale simultaneously.   We only ever see limited numbers of a given book offered for sale.   Demand is the strongest factor in determining what, are how many books come to the market.  

The market is self regulating.   The fluctuations in price will present, but total populations of books, has little or no impact on the price for books with mature populations.

 

ASM #300 35,000 copies out there..   HOT!

Spawn #1 32,000 copies out there...  HOT!

Wolverine Limited 1-4 49,000 copies out there... HOT!

Etc, etc, etc

The biggest subbed SA book is FF #48 with 9,000 copies.   The book couldn't be any more hot than it currently is.   

Mid grades books for keys are their own markets, book by book. For non-keys, mid grade books are a constant, flat price appreciation, that is a constant.   

 

[Northwest]

On 11/2/2023 at 1:17 AM, Microchip said:

 

The biggest subbed SA book is FF #48 with 9,000 copies.   The book couldn't be any more hot than it currently is.   

 

FF48 seems to be on a multi year decline in price. While it is selling, this suggests qSupply is trending ahead of qDemand. (Utilized 4.0 since its the most common, price patterns also show in other grades)

Edited November 2, 2023 by Northwest

[whomerjay]

On 11/2/2023 at 9:38 AM, Northwest said:

FF48 seems to be on a multi year decline in price. While it is selling, this suggests qSupply is trending ahead of qDemand. (Utilized 4.0 since its the most common, price patterns also show in othet grades)

I love Surfer and love this book but its supply is huge; the recent prices on this book boggle the mind.  A few years ago (3?) I remember a raw legitimate VG FF48 lingering for weeks here on the boards for $75.  That reflected its supply.  

[Murphman13]

$75 or $750?

[jimjum12]

On 11/2/2023 at 4:17 AM, Microchip said:

Mid grades books for keys are their own markets, book by book.

People have such trouble grasping this. 

There is NO real market for ALL comics ... we're not talking about apples and oranges here... each issue, each title is different. People are always grasping for that simple "Cliff Notes" approach, which never occurs. I don't believe one can even assign an across the board group dynamic even to Keys only. Too many moving parts, too many motivations. GOD BLESS ... 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

[VintageComics]

On 11/2/2023 at 9:38 AM, Northwest said:

FF48 seems to be on a multi year decline in price. While it is selling, this suggests qSupply is trending ahead of qDemand. (Utilized 4.0 since its the most common, price patterns also show in other grades)

Disney delaying the FF and X-men franchises are MONSTER factors in the decline of anything related to those two titles. 

They were heavily speculated on before Disney bought FF and X-men from Fox for $97 Billion and now with the pandemic and the SAG-AFTRA strike delaying progress as well as Disney waiting for contracts to expire, I believe this collection of things is what is causing the #1 problem for demand. 

Just imagine a Surfer story line is released through film?

That book goes right back to where it was at it's peak. 

[whomerjay]

On 11/2/2023 at 10:16 AM, Murphman13 said:

$75 or $750?

75.

 

Someone with better search skills than me can find it. Maybe it was as long as 5 years ago, not sure, but I remember distinctly thinking how little people appreciate SS and that the availability of this book must just be too great. 

Edited November 2, 2023 by whomerjay

[MatterEaterLad]

Speaking of Supply vs Demand -- guess how many copies of FF48 are currently for sale on eBay?

Spoiler

253 

 

[Brock]

On 11/2/2023 at 10:16 AM, Murphman13 said:

$75 or $750?

On 11/2/2023 at 12:13 PM, whomerjay said:

75.

During the pandemic, I sold a raw that I'd graded at 1.8 for about $450.

[Hamlet]

On 11/2/2023 at 11:13 AM, whomerjay said:

75.

 

Someone with better search skills than me can find it. Maybe it was as long as 5 years ago, not sure, but I remember distinctly thinking how little people appreciate SS and that the availability of this book must just be too great. 

I’m pretty sure that you are mis-remembering.

[William-James88]

Even though practically no one watch this year's Shazam film, golden age comics for that character are still climbing. You used to be able to buy lots of fawcetts below guide 5 years ago, but those days are long. Or at least from what I've seen and follow. 

[KCOComics]

On 11/2/2023 at 3:23 PM, Hamlet said:

I’m pretty sure that you are mis-remembering.

I sold a VG raw for $300 on these boards a few years ago, and it sold in minutes. It was before the pandemic and all the madness that followed. 

[The humble Watcher lurking]

Looks like Spider-Man comics is a big mover in the market.

I was looking at GOCOLLECT`s top 50 Silver Age and Spidey`s got 20 of the top 50 Silver Age comics.

In their overall extended list with all ages, Spidey`s got 13 out of the top 25.

Spider-Man is more popular than I thought.

 

[1Cool]

On 11/3/2023 at 8:13 AM, The humble Watcher lurking said:

Looks like Spider-Man comics is a big mover in the market.

I was looking at GOCOLLECT`s top 50 Silver Age and Spidey`s got 20 of the top 50 Silver Age comics.

In their overall extended list with all ages, Spidey`s got 13 out of the top 25.

Spider-Man is more popular than I thought.

 

[The humble Watcher lurking]

Spider-Man`s the King. lol. Crazy how popular he still is after all these years.

Spider-Man 2 Becomes PlayStation Studio’s Fastest-Selling Game With 2.5 Million Copies in 24 Hours.

https://variety.com/2023/gaming/games/spider-man-2-video-game-sales-playstation-1235764985/

 

Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 sold more than 2.5 million copies in its first 24 hours of availability, making it PlayStation Studios’ fastest-selling game ever.

That stat includes pre-order sales of individual units, as well as units bundled with PlayStation 5.

 

[The humble Watcher lurking]

So wouldn`t Spider-Man be the canary in the coal mine? If his comic book keys are doing well, then the overall market might be bullish, or vice versa if his comic keys are slow then the market might be bearish.

Any thoughts on Spider-Man correlating with the rest of the comic book market, especially Silver Age and up markets?