Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[1Cool]

On 11/3/2023 at 11:07 AM, The humble Watcher lurking said:

So wouldn`t Spider-Man be the canary in the coal mine? If his comic book keys are doing well, then the overall market might be bullish, or vice versa if his comic keys are slow then the market might be bearish.

Any thoughts on Spider-Man correlating with the rest of the comic book market, especially Silver Age and up markets? 

If ASM books are going up or doing well then there is really no telling what the rest of the market is doing since they sell no matter what.  Now if ASM books are dropping then the rest of the market is probably complete trash since even spidey fans are selling. 

[MatterEaterLad]

On 11/3/2023 at 9:07 AM, The humble Watcher lurking said:

So wouldn`t Spider-Man be the canary in the coal mine? If his comic book keys are doing well, then the overall market might be bullish, or vice versa if his comic keys are slow then the market might be bearish.

Any thoughts on Spider-Man correlating with the rest of the comic book market, especially Silver Age and up markets? 

49 copies of AF15 for sale on eBay

69 copies of ASM1 for sale on eBay.

I look at GPA highs and lows, but also the sheer volume of big keys and if they're moving at all. Those numbers have been fairly stagnant all year. 

[drotto]

On 11/3/2023 at 11:59 AM, MatterEaterLad said:

49 copies of AF15 for sale on eBay

69 copies of ASM1 for sale on eBay.

I look at GPA highs and lows, but also the sheer volume of big keys and if they're moving at all. Those numbers have been fairly stagnant all year. 

But on eBay there are so many listed asking 2021 prices or more.  Yes, many books are listed, but the prices are all over the place. Thus, those books sit there.  Well priced books are still moving. If you move over to CLink or the other auction sites, there are far fewer mega keys, and they always sell. Recently those sales appear slightly up based on GPA average and last sale.

[Telegan]

On 11/3/2023 at 10:07 AM, The humble Watcher lurking said:

So wouldn`t Spider-Man be the canary in the coal mine? If his comic book keys are doing well, then the overall market might be bullish, or vice versa if his comic keys are slow then the market might be bearish.

Any thoughts on Spider-Man correlating with the rest of the comic book market, especially Silver Age and up markets? 

I don't look for ASM books much, but you can look at it many ways :

• "Everything else" SA is dropping like a brick or did drop like a brick, but ASM comics are still fairly strong.  But they usually do well, so they may not be indicative of the rest of the market (bad canary!)
• Or if they finally start tanking, then they weren't a very good canary in the coal mine because if you were watching them as an indicator, you would've been toast on "all" your other comics (bad canary!)
• Or if they finally start tanking, then maybe they are signaling a "bottom" of sorts in the SA comic book market.  I guess in stock terms this would be an SA capitulation of sorts or at least the start of one. (hmm...)

If something holds strong while everything else goes down or fluctuates wildly, I don't consider it a good indicator, but rather, a contrarian indicator of sorts.  You can somewhat liken it to the stock market and stocks like Apple holding strong while other stocks crumble.  Maybe ASM is a safe haven for comic nerds.

** Disclaimer : Please don't take anything I say as investing advice or suggestion to buy or sell any comic. I provide my looney statements only for entertainment purposes and am fully aware I usually fail at even that.

[VintageComics]

The discussion on this page confirms my assertion that AF #15 is THE BOOK to analyze as the canary in the coal mine (or at least one of the main canaries) for the Vintage market. 

I'd even team up with someone who is good at combining stats and illustrating them if they wanted to collaborate.

Drop me a PM. 

[bc]

On 11/3/2023 at 5:00 PM, VintageComics said:

The discussion on this page confirms my assertion that AF #15 is THE BOOK to analyze as the canary in the coal mine (or at least one of the main canaries) for the Vintage market. 

I'd even team up with someone who is good at combining stats and illustrating them if they wanted to collaborate.

Drop me a PM. 

@DC# does a good job of that over here:

Here's one of his recent graphs:

-bc

 

[VintageComics]

On 11/3/2023 at 5:16 PM, bc said:

@DC# does a good job of that over here:

Here's one of his recent graphs:

-bc

 

Thanks. I don't venture much into other forums anymore other than here and the Marketplace. 

I did not realize he'd done that. Great stuff. 

As I've mentioned before, I tend to think in terms of more comprehensive systems and I wish more people did. 

It would take a lot of volatility out of markets if they did. This graph is a terrific example of that thinking. 

Edited November 3, 2023 by VintageComics

[1Cool]

On 11/3/2023 at 5:16 PM, bc said:

@DC# does a good job of that over here:

Here's one of his recent graphs:

-bc

 

Looks like pretty much every grade has halved in value since the beginning of 2022.  That is a lot of money considering that is only one particular book.  

[bc]

On 11/3/2023 at 5:52 PM, 1Cool said:

Looks like pretty much every grade has halved in value since the beginning of 2022.  That is a lot of money considering that is only one particular book.  

Definitely some serious consolidation going on with the Price Per Point spread with a few outliers providing variance. 

-bc

[DC#]

For that AF#15 chart I have been trying to capture sales that do not show up in GPA (like Clink and a few other spots).    Can't say that I have gotten them all but hopefully most are there.   

[KCOComics]

I was just watching the new Miles Morals Spiderman movie with my kids. And I'll admit, I'm not a fan of the multiverse, I'm kind of a purest. 

But Spiderman is just as relevant today as he was 50 years ago. My kids love it. Their friends all talk about it in school. 

It's hard to imagine a world where Spiderman doesn't resonate (either as Peter Parker or Miles) 

Edited November 4, 2023 by KCOComics

[Ryan.]

On 11/2/2023 at 11:48 AM, jimjum12 said:

People have such trouble grasping this. 

There is NO real market for ALL comics ... we're not talking about apples and oranges here... each issue, each title is different. People are always grasping for that simple "Cliff Notes" approach, which never occurs. I don't believe one can even assign an across the board group dynamic even to Keys only. Too many moving parts, too many motivations. GOD BLESS ... 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

It's very much like the real estate market. People often refer to it as one whole. The reality is that home sales in Mississippi have zero relation to home sales in eastern Massachusetts. Hell, home sales in western Massachusetts have no relation to those in eastern Massachusetts, and so on.

[drbanner]

On 11/3/2023 at 5:52 PM, 1Cool said:

Looks like pretty much every grade has halved in value since the beginning of 2022.  That is a lot of money considering that is only one particular book.  

Yeah, great graphic/chart DC#!

The entire universe of Marvel Silver Age keys look like this, some a little worse (X-men #1), some not quite as bad (Hulk #1). HG copies (e.g. those that don't sell as often) have fared better. For later Silver and Bronze, many of the drops have even been more dramatic, but again the top copies haven't been as affected. If you wander into the GA forum you'll see that Gold isn't immune to the falling prices but it's not nearly as bad as Silver/Bronze.

[VintageComics]

On 11/3/2023 at 5:52 PM, 1Cool said:

Looks like pretty much every grade has halved in value since the beginning of 2022.  That is a lot of money considering that is only one particular book.  

Andrew, this is an example of a non-comprehensive view.

If a book triples 3 years ago and then halves you're STILL ahead.

Does anyone think the book is going to halve in value again?

[Robot Man]

On 11/3/2023 at 6:03 PM, KCOComics said:

I was just watching the new Miles Morals Spiderman movie with my kids. And I'll admit, I'm not a fan of the multiverse, I'm kind of a purest. 

But Spiderman is just as relevant today as he was 50 years ago. My kids love it. Their friends all talk about it in school. 

It's hard to imagine a world where Spiderman doesn't resonate (either as Peter Parker or Miles) 

Halloween was a good example. Seems like every 3rd or 4th kid was Spider-Man. I see very young kids everyday wearing Spider-Man shirts. Spidey has certainly knocked Superman and even Batman off their pedistiles. As long as they make movies and toys, he is still king of the hill. The only thing as popular with kids are dinosaurs and sharks. 

[VintageComics]

Well, I just lost a very long post with this board software. 

You're all lucky that the CGC Gods are smiling on the rest of you. 

[drotto]

On 11/4/2023 at 10:58 AM, VintageComics said:

Andrew, this is an example of a non-comprehensive view.

If a book triples 3 years ago and then halves you're STILL ahead.

Does anyone think the book is going to halve in value again?

Excellent point.  I got my X-Men 1 in 2018 and My Giant Sized X-Men in 2019.  Yes, the values are about 60% of their peak.  My XM1 is still 2.5 X what I initially paid for it, and the GSXM is 2 times what I paid.

 

If you look at the GPA averages on most books, they have returned to the trend line from say 2015 to 2020 if you essentially cut the bump from the bubble off. So if you were in before 2020 your OK.  If you are buying now, if the historical trend line holds, your again OK. Those who bought on the bump will likely eventually get back up there, it just may take 10 to 15 years.

[1Cool]

On 11/4/2023 at 10:58 AM, VintageComics said:

Andrew, this is an example of a non-comprehensive view.

If a book triples 3 years ago and then halves you're STILL ahead.

Does anyone think the book is going to halve in value again?

Only if you bought prior to 2020.  Prices only spiked because actual people were buying at the inflated (3x) prices and now they have lost their shirt.  I think the writing was on the wall that prices were not sustainable but I can still pity those that got caught buying something and then quickly took a huge loss.

Edited November 4, 2023 by 1Cool

[1Cool]

On 11/4/2023 at 10:58 AM, VintageComics said:

Andrew, this is an example of a non-comprehensive view.

If a book triples 3 years ago and then halves you're STILL ahead.

Does anyone think the book is going to halve in value again?

If a book tripled in value from let’s say 2017 - 2021 then I’d not be shocked if a lot of books revert to the 2017 prices.  I don’t think the correction (especially for Silver and newer) is close to being done.

[batmiesta]

Bit of a head scratcher. 

X-MEN #133  CGC 9.6 NM+ Add to WantList		$197	$75	10/13/2023	11/3/2023		Ended
X-MEN #133  CGC 9.6 NM+ Add to WantList		$397	$75	10/13/2023	11/3/2023		Ended