Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[FoggyNelson]

Prices be easing a bit👍💰

[mjoeyoung]

A 9.2 sold in 2018 for $125.00, most recent sale was a 6.0 for $239.00.  Only 9.8 on the census.

[1Cool]

I've got a small tidbit of data that I find interesting.  On 8/1/22 I checked and there was 2.9 million comic books available on e-bay with 1.52 million comics having been sold over the previous 3 months.  Here we are almost 16 months later and there are currently 5.1 million comic books available on e-bay while the same 1.52 million comic books have sold in 3 months.  So comics are still selling (no telling about the price of the 1.52 million books sold) while the number of books available has skyrocketed up by almost 76%.  Not sure if this is due to brick on mortar stores having to post everything they have in stock due to less foot traffic or people are trying to clear out stuff from their basement but the numbers are kind of shocking.

Edited November 22, 2023 by 1Cool

[Hamlet]

On 11/22/2023 at 8:56 AM, 1Cool said:

I've got a small tidbit of data that I find interesting.  On 8/1/22 I checked and there was 2.9 million comic books available on e-bay with 1.52 million comics having been sold over the previous 3 months.  Here we are almost 16 months later and there are currently 5.1 million comic books available on e-bay while the same 1.52 million comic books have sold in 3 months.  So comics are still selling (no telling about the price of the 1.52 million books sold) while the number of books available has skyrocketed up by almost 76%.  Not sure if this is due to brick on mortar stores having to post everything they have in stock due to less foot traffic or people are trying to clear out stuff from their basement but the numbers are kind of shocking.

It’s the people who were buying because comics were going up now selling because comics are going down

 

[mjoeyoung]

On 11/22/2023 at 7:56 AM, 1Cool said:

I've got a small tidbit of data that I find interesting.  On 8/1/22 I checked and there was 2.9 million comic books available on e-bay with 1.52 million comics having been sold over the previous 3 months.  Here we are almost 16 months later and there are currently 5.1 million comic books available on e-bay while the same 1.52 million comic books have sold in 3 months.  So comics are still selling (no telling about the price of the 1.52 million books sold) while the number of books available has skyrocketed up by almost 76%.  Not sure if this is due to brick on mortar stores having to post everything they have in stock due to less foot traffic or people are trying to clear out stuff from their basement but the numbers are kind of shocking.

Very interesting.  If you filter to Auctions, there are only about 300,000.  I wonder if that number has decreased substantially.  The pessimist in me thinks that there are a lot of people who bought at inflated prices that are trying to sell.  

[mjoeyoung]

On 11/22/2023 at 10:55 AM, Hamlet said:

It’s the people who were buying because comics were going up now selling because comics are going down

 

Buy HIGH sell LOW 

[Hamlet]

On 11/22/2023 at 11:55 AM, mjoeyoung said:

Very interesting.  If you filter to Auctions, there are only about 300,000.  I wonder if that number has decreased substantially.  The pessimist in me thinks that there are a lot of people who bought at inflated prices that are trying to sell.  

They still have auctions on EBay?

[1Cool]

On 11/22/2023 at 12:55 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Very interesting.  If you filter to Auctions, there are only about 300,000.  I wonder if that number has decreased substantially.  The pessimist in me thinks that there are a lot of people who bought at inflated prices that are trying to sell.  

My data set is very limited but where are all the sellers coming from?  If the same number of books sold then the extra 75% in E-Bay inventory would have to come from books that were bought at Cons or on other web sites.  My gut is telling me people are hurting for cash because of inflation and extra expenses (ie possibly gearing up for retirement) and they saw all the high prices and now are flooding the market with all the books that were in the attic or basement.

I'll check it again next August to see if the pattern holds up but it's just a pet project of mine to see how e-bay items fluctuate over time.

Edited November 22, 2023 by 1Cool

[Number 6]

On 11/22/2023 at 9:56 AM, mjoeyoung said:

Buy HIGH sell LOW 

That's been my "strategy" since 1992. 

[mjoeyoung]

Let's take a look at some Amazing Spider-Man #1s on eBay

6.0 CGC 2708346001 bought Sep 2022 for $19,800 on eBay for $25,450 - Last sale was $17.1K

4.0 CGC 1239218001 bought Jul 2019 for $12,500 on eBay for $25,999 (signed) - Last sale was $14.7K

3.0 CGC 1118139001 bought Sep 2021 for $17,500 on eBay for $26,750 (signed) - Last sale was ~$7k

5.0 CGC 3989961001 bought Jul 2023 for $12,200 on eBay for $26,999 - Last sale was $13.2K

5.0 CGC 3718226006 bought Nov 2020 for $6500 on eBay for $39,999 (unofficial Lee and Ditko sigs and RESTORED) - Last sales were $4700 and $7K with no sigs

All according to GPA. 3 others had no sales I could find.

 

Edited November 22, 2023 by mjoeyoung

[stormflora]

On 11/22/2023 at 1:03 PM, 1Cool said:

My data set is very limited but where are all the sellers coming from?  If the same number of books sold then the extra 75% in E-Bay inventory would have to come from books that were bought at Cons or on other web sites.  My gut is telling me people are hurting for cash because of inflation and extra expenses (ie possibly gearing up for retirement) and they saw all the high prices and now are flooding the market with all the books that were in the attic or basement.

I'll check it again next August to see if the pattern holds up but it's just a pet project of mine to see how e-bay items fluctuate over time.

I wouldn't doubt that there has been an increase in comic prices. COVID really hurt everyone's finances, and gave them a reality check in focusing on what is important in life rather than impulsive buying and overoptimistic investments and speculation. I wouldn't be surprised if luxuries purchased pre-COVID as collectables are now being sold to try to recoup and regain some cash.

However, naturally, people do not want to sell at a loss, so chances are, they're selling at at least break-even prices. And obviously, they're going to compare with other listings to have an idea for whether or not their items have appreciated in value before doing so.

[1Cool]

On 11/22/2023 at 1:35 PM, stormflora said:

I wouldn't doubt that there has been an increase in comic prices. COVID really hurt everyone's finances, and gave them a reality check in focusing on what is important in life rather than impulsive buying and overoptimistic investments and speculation. I wouldn't be surprised if luxuries purchased pre-COVID as collectables are now being sold to try to recoup and regain some cash.

However, naturally, people do not want to sell at a loss, so chances are, they're selling at at least break-even prices. And obviously, they're going to compare with other listings to have an idea for whether or not their items have appreciated in value before doing so.

I think the data reflects your intuition since the number of books sold would also be way up if people were successful in making a sale (especially if the number of books available is up 75%). The fact that the number of books sold is holding steady means some people are finding books at the price point they want to buy at but there is a large jump in the number of books which are a priced too high to make a sale (either new to the market or hold overs from 2020 - 2021).  The 1.5 million sold books probably are books that got a nice haircut in price and it will be interesting to see if people have to eventually drop their prices to push that sold number up or if people will just put their books back in the attic and wait things out (even if that takes a decade).  

[1Cool]

On 11/22/2023 at 1:29 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Let's take a look at some Amazing Spider-Man #1s on eBay

6.0 CGC 2708346001 bought Sep 2022 for $19,800 on eBay for $25,450 - Last sale was $17.1K

4.0 CGC 1239218001 bought Jul 2019 for $12,500 on eBay for $25,999 (signed) - Last sale was $14.7K

3.0 CGC 1118139001 bought Sep 2021 for $17,500 on eBay for $26,750 (signed) - Last sale was ~$7k

5.0 CGC 3989961001 bought Jul 2023 for $12,200 on eBay for $26,999 - Last sale was $13.2K

5.0 CGC 3718226006 bought Nov 2020 for $6500 on eBay for $39,999 (unofficial Lee and Ditko sigs and RESTORED) - Last sales were $4700 and $7K with no sigs

All according to GPA. 3 others had no sales I could find.

 

E-Bay sellers are crazy is what you are telling me?  

But if you bought the ASM 1 CGC 4.0 way back in 2019 you basically break even if you sell it now once you take out fees.  

Edited November 22, 2023 by 1Cool

[Sweet Lou 14]

FWIW, at least in the category of books I'm buying (generally very high grade and/or hard to find), a very high percentage of the books I'm finding have very recent CGC registration numbers -- that is, there's ample reason to believe most are recent submissions.  Whereas, I am not seeing a lot of "older" CGC books in this high-end category.  I view this as (anecdotal) evidence that people with those books are still holding in the hopes that prices may rebound.  Of course, some of them do list their books on eBay, but at ludicrous prices that weren't even supported at the height of the market.  I had a (friendly) back-and-forth with one of them, who has multiple random BA Sub-Mariner issues on eBay for $1,200 and up when they're maybe worth 1/3 or 1/4 that amount, and he seems to really believe that eventually the market will prove his asking price right.

In other words, there seems to still be a lot of resistance to selling at a loss, even if there's a risk that waiting will only make your losses greater.  Someone selling a graded book they bought raw is likely making a profit even at today's prices.  Someone who bought the same book in the same grade, graded, a couple of years ago, is in a different boat entirely.

Edited November 22, 2023 by Sweet Lou 14

[stormflora]

On 11/22/2023 at 1:54 PM, 1Cool said:

I think the data reflects your intuition since the number of books sold would also be way up if people were successful in making a sale (especially if the number of books available is up 75%). The fact that the number of books sold is holding steady means some people are finding books at the price point they want to buy at but there is a large jump in the number of books which are a priced too high to make a sale (either new to the market or hold overs from 2020 - 2021).  The 1.5 million sold books probably are books that got a nice haircut in price and it will be interesting to see if people have to eventually drop their prices to push that sold number up or if people will just put their books back in the attic and wait things out (even if that takes a decade).  

I noticed this myself as I was trying to complete my Chip 'n' Dale collection over the past few weeks.

A lot of non-key issues were a struggle to acquire because, although stock existed, they were clearly overpriced for what they were, and I was not about to subject myself to paying double to triple the actual worth of each of those issues. I ultimately had to average down the cost via means such as haggling and making a larger order with other comics, but I managed to get those difficult to acquire issues for around 30% more at most above the typical price, which was still within reason. (The real pain came from the shipping costs, but that's not totally the seller's fault.)

On a side note, in Canada, the housing and rental market is absolutely outrageous right now and has been ever since we entered post-COVID. Americans might not have a grasp on what's going on over here, but in a nutshell, both housing and rental prices skyrocketed by 30-50% since 2017-2018. However, with some government intervention and oversupply, things are starting to level off as more and more people are refusing to pay exorbitant prices (and to be fair, they can't even afford to do so anyway, with the nonexistent job market and too many immigrants coming in to compete).

[stormflora]

On 11/22/2023 at 2:15 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

FWIW, at least in the category of books I'm buying (generally very high grade and/or hard to find), a very high percentage of the books I'm finding have very recent CGC registration numbers -- that is, there's ample reason to believe most are recent submissions.  Whereas, I am not seeing a lot of "older" CGC books in this high-end category.  I view this as (anecdotal) evidence that people with those books are still holding in the hopes that prices may rebound.  Of course, some of them do list their books on eBay, but at ludicrous prices that weren't even supported at the height of the market.  I had a (friendly) back-and-forth with one of them, who has multiple random BA Sub-Mariner issues on eBay for $1,200 and up when they're maybe worth 1/3 or 1/4 that amount, and he seems to really believe that eventually the market will prove his asking price right.

In other words, there seems to still be a lot of resistance to selling at a loss, even if there's a risk that waiting will only make your losses greater.  Someone selling a graded book they bought raw is likely making a profit even at today's prices.  Someone who bought the same book in the same grade, graded, a couple of years ago, is in a different boat entirely.

Yeah, typical case of shooting oneself in the foot from speculation. The ones losing are the ones who bought slabbed comics within the last few years as investment properties to try to resell. Sunk cost fallacy is kicking in hard, and they want to at least break-even.

From what I've noticed, a lot of comic stores that order new issues of comics immediately send off the NM/M copies they receive for CGC slabbing. This probably increased the supply of these high grade yet recent slabs. Is it risky? Sure. But a lot of speculators buy them anyway since they are total suckers who still think there is investment potential.

The reality is, having a proper job is going to make you more in the long run than trying to bank on a comic going from $5 to $500 after a year or two. The opportunity cost is way too high. The real money is in trying to find estate liquidations and scoring old key issues for cheap.

[mjoeyoung]

On 11/22/2023 at 12:30 PM, stormflora said:

From what I've noticed, a lot of comic stores that order new issues of comics immediately send off the NM/M copies they receive for CGC slabbing. This probably increased the supply of these high grade yet recent slabs. Is it risky? Sure. But a lot of speculators buy them anyway since they are total suckers who still think there is investment potential.

I see this too.  Some of these 9.8s are now selling for $20 to $40.  With shipping, prescreening, and grading costs, are these books even breaking even?

[lou_fine]

On 11/18/2023 at 5:22 PM, 1Cool said:

That Giant Sized X-Men 1 is such a cool book in 9.8 but that drop is crazy. 

No real surprise here as it’s really all about the supply sometimes, especially considering there’s almost a whopping 250 copies graded at this rather exalted (or maybe not so much) CGC 9.8 grade. 

Now, the CGC 9.8 graded copy of X-Men 94 seems to be holding up a bit better as it finished up at a relatively stronger $46,800.  No doubt holding up better than the GSXM 1 since it has only a much lower 40 off copies in this exalted CGC 9.8 grade. 👍

[Microchip]

On 11/23/2023 at 6:15 AM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Whereas, I am not seeing a lot of "older" CGC books in this high-end category.  

Viking burials.

A lot of us have earmarked those books for inclusion in our funeral pyre, as we transcend into Valhalla. 

 

[Telegan]

On 11/18/2023 at 8:22 AM, 1Cool said:

That Giant Sized X-Men 1 is such a cool book in 9.8 but that drop is crazy. 

It's like in the stock market - people always say the drop is crazy, but what about the rise?  I think the rise to $72k was nuts and along with another $60k sale, an outlier of sorts.  Seems more like prices are coming back to reality.  The lowest price it's sold for (on GPA) this year is still higher than the highest price it sold for in 2020.