Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[october]

On 12/3/2023 at 11:03 AM, jimjum12 said:

I get what you're saying, Bob, but just because a book has less sales data does not make it less REAL. In fact, if one is discussing the trajectory the Comic "market", it really can't be accurately done while focusing only on the easy stuff. This would also apply to, for example, non key Ditko ASMs, and Kirby FFs. They're in every single auction in abundance. They're also still very popular, even though they may not go for 10x the price of the respective keys. The "key" approach can be very misleading. A person can argue in defense of that approach, as long as they're comfortable with being wrong. GOD BLESS ...

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

Have non-key Ditko ASMs and Kirby FFs fared much better though? I see prices at 25-50% lower than a year or two ago. Not the huge nosedive of most commonly traded keys, but it's not roses either. Virtually every Marvel book I commonly buy and sell is significantly lower than in the recent past. Maybe some uber high grade rarities are excluded, but that's a tiny sliver of a tiny slice of the "market".  

[jimjum12]

On 12/3/2023 at 12:08 PM, october said:

Have non-key Ditko ASMs and Kirby FFs fared much better though? I see prices at 25-50% lower than a year or two ago. Not the huge nosedive of most commonly traded keys, but it's not roses either. Virtually every Marvel book I commonly buy and sell is significantly lower than in the recent past. Maybe some uber high grade rarities are excluded, but that's a tiny sliver of a tiny slice of the "market".  

I'm not saying they have, just pointing out how a keys only approach skews the result.... sorry, but it does. Most everything is down, just not all by 100%.   GOD BLESS.... 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

[jimjum12]

On 12/3/2023 at 12:08 PM, october said:

Maybe some uber high grade rarities are excluded, but that's a tiny sliver of a tiny slice of the "market".  

.... They are still a valid factor in the analysis, disregarding them because they don't frame the narrative is disingenuous. That's all I'm saying. Low grade vintage also seems to be selling. GOD BLESS...

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) 

Edited December 3, 2023 by jimjum12

[october]

On 12/3/2023 at 11:21 AM, jimjum12 said:

.... They are still a valid factor in the analysis, disregarding them because they don't frame the narrative is disingenuous. That's all I'm saying. Low grade vintage also seems to be selling. GOD BLESS...

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) 

When I look at the data the takeaway is that the new money, the dumb money, the speculators that got caught up in the hype and needed ASM 300 in 9.8 or the bored guy at home that spent his PPP check on FF 48 in 9.4....those guys are gone. Poof. Likely never to return, or at least not for decades. 2021/22 was a perfect storm of easy money, free money, lockdowns, boredom and excess internet time. FOMO driven specubois inflated the obvious/high profile portion of the comic market (along with video games, sports cards, etc) and immediately ghosted when prices dipped. Classic bubble. 

The collectors that have been at this since 1997 and want to finish a low grade 10 cent Batman run? Still here. The fanatical top grade pre-code people? Still here. The well-heeled collectors building Fox or Centaur or Ace or Chesler runs? Still here. Those prices never went parabolic and they haven't dropped either. Plenty of collector-centric portions of the market still humming along, oblivious to the flaming wreckage next door. 

 

Edited December 3, 2023 by october

[zzutak]

On 12/3/2023 at 9:33 AM, october said:

Plenty of collector-centric portions of the market still humming along, oblivious to the flaming wreckage next door.

Brutal but true.    One of the more interesting features of Lone Star's website is that it allows one to see what's selling and how long it's taking to make those sales.  Let's restrict this particular analysis to CGC-certified Silver Age (1960-70) Marvels -- consignment uploads only (so whether a book sells or not is 100% on its consignor and 0% on the Saunders Family).  Some relevant stats:

• The most recent 1000 New Listings were uploaded over a 1-month period (from 11/03 to 12/03).
• 77 of those 1000 listings have sold (as of this minute), for a "successful sale" percentage of 7.7%.

Why aren't more CGC-certified SA Marvels selling?  Many/most consignors are buried (often quite deep) in these books and cannot afford to take the loss that would almost surely result from listing them at a current fair market value BIN price or offering them at a $1 starting price auction.  In my opinion, GPA-based analyses of "where the SA Market currently stands" actually underestimates the intensity of the "flaming wreckage" cited by Andy in the last post.  One man's opinion.   

[mjoeyoung]

I was a bit surprised by these Amazing Spider-Man #1 prices from Comiclink on Friday:

Stan Lee signed 4.0 for $10K = Last sale $13.7K, 12M Avg $12K

2.5 for $4700 = Last sale in Nov for $6600, 12M Avg $8K

2.0 for $4955 = Last sale in Nov for $7200, 12M Avg $8K

Last time a  2.0 sold for under $5K was 2020 when the average of 8 sales was $4711. Highest sale was in Oct 2021 for $13.2K

Last time a 2.5 sold for under $5K was also 2020 when the average of 13 sales was $5468.  Highest sale was in Jan 2022 for $14.4K

Last time for a 4.0 under $10K was Jan 2021 for $8625 before prices ballooned.  Average of 10 sales was $13.9K.  Highest sale was in Apr 2022 for $18.6K

An interesting point (to me at least) is that  5/6 4.0s sold this year and 4/5 2.5s recorded by the GPA have been sold through Heritage.

[VintageComics]

On 12/3/2023 at 9:22 AM, DC# said:

And for the record - I am not offended by any of the comments or questioning.   Happy to keep doing some of these recaps for anyone interested.  selfishly I learn a lot through the process and through the observations the results generate on this forum.    
 

A maxim I try to live by is “assume someone’s best intent” which is helpful in a place like this where lack of normal personal communication cues can make it so easy to misinterpret.  

Amen! 

[VintageComics]

On 12/3/2023 at 1:10 PM, zzutak said:

Why aren't more CGC-certified SA Marvels selling?  Many/most consignors are buried (often quite deep) in these books and cannot afford to take the loss that would almost surely result from listing them at a current fair market value BIN price or offering them at a $1 starting price auction.  In my opinion, GPA-based analyses of "where the SA Market currently stands" actually underestimates the intensity of the "flaming wreckage" cited by Andy in the last post.  One man's opinion.   

Anyone that has been following the hobby for more than 10 years will remember the "flaming wreckage" post 2007-08 when stock markets tanked, liquidity tightened up around the world and ENTIRE COUNTRIES were going bankrupt.

We found at least 3 major Pedigrees during that time as people were liquidating their collections. Billy Wright, Sucha News and one other (can't remember which one right now).

People still made money in that market while others were losing, and it was quite literally a "flaming wreckage" at the time, relatively speaking of course, since higher prices and more volatility will create larger price swings, but 2009-2012 were no laughing matter and a lot of people here thought the end was nigh. 

[mjoeyoung]

On 12/3/2023 at 11:10 AM, zzutak said:

Brutal but true.    One of the more interesting features of Lone Star's website is that it allows one to see what's selling and how long it's taking to make those sales.  Let's restrict this particular analysis to CGC-certified Silver Age (1960-70) Marvels -- consignment uploads only (so whether a book sells or not is 100% on its consignor and 0% on the Saunders Family).  Some relevant stats:

• The most recent 1000 New Listings were uploaded over a 1-month period (from 11/03 to 12/03).
• 77 of those 1000 listings have sold (as of this minute), for a "successful sale" percentage of 7.7%.

Why aren't more CGC-certified SA Marvels selling?  Many/most consignors are buried (often quite deep) in these books and cannot afford to take the loss that would almost surely result from listing them at a current fair market value BIN price or offering them at a $1 starting price auction.  In my opinion, GPA-based analyses of "where the SA Market currently stands" actually underestimates the intensity of the "flaming wreckage" cited by Andy in the last post.  One man's opinion.   

 

The great majority of people that purchased "hot" books during the bubble are looking at significant paper losses.  For long term collectors this is not a problem.  Anyone with a short time frame is going to have difficult decisions to make.  First they will hold, in the hopes that prices rebound, then they will put the books up for sale at inflated prices (see above), and then as prices continue to fall they will finally capitulate and take whatever they can get.  If enough people do this, the values will crater.  This is the "smoldering fire" beneath the "flaming wreckage." 

Over in the Post your Promise Collection Wins thread, MasterChief has been compiling a list of Promise Collection resales. Those sellers have lost over $1 million! 

[VintageComics]

On 12/3/2023 at 12:11 AM, mjoeyoung said:

I did not want Vintage to break his Vow of Privacy , so I took a stab at this.

It's not a vow, I just don't want prying eyes or competitors knowing more than they need to. 

If I knew how to make a spreadsheet like that. I'd make a list of CGC 9.8 or highest graded books, 

I'd sort them on Comiclink from most expensive to least expensive and then I'd post the data into that spreadsheet down to about the low 4 figure mark. Below about $4-5K the number of books really starts to increase and makes it voluminous and wieldy. 

Then I'd compare that data to previous high grade sales. 

That's the market I'd be most interested in to know what's happening. 

[COI]

The market isn't some monolithic thing that you can encapsulate with some perfect set of books or data; it's heavily segmented. Just the fact that we're sticking to certified books here ignores probably 80% or more of comic sales. Sales data is best used to track the prices on individual books at specific grades, mostly certified to get some sort of consistency; collecting data on a range of books and trying to draw a conclusion about the market as a whole just doesn't work, because there are too many books and too many variables surrounding those books. Even when you're talking individual books at specific grades, there are other variables like the venue they're sold in, page quality/eye appeal, etc. And when you get books that trade only a few times a year or even less frequently than that, you can't really conclude much of anything about "the market". 

That said, I still like looking at data, and I appreciate everyone's efforts at compiling it here. 

Data I would love to have is how much of the market is buying for the long term vs the short term, but that would be impossible to gather. I tend to be less concerned with prices falling as I am with how often books trade hands. It's telling to me that there has already been enough turnover on the Promise Collection to track 1 million in losses. If you want long term health, you want to see as much 'buying for keeps' as possible. 

[dikran]

On 12/3/2023 at 5:04 PM, VintageComics said:

Anyone that has been following the hobby for more than 10 years will remember the "flaming wreckage" post 2007-08 when stock markets tanked, liquidity tightened up around the world and ENTIRE COUNTRIES were going bankrupt.

We found at least 3 major Pedigrees during that time as people were liquidating their collections. Billy Wright, Sucha News and one other (can't remember which one right now).

People still made money in that market while others were losing, and it was quite literally a "flaming wreckage" at the time, relatively speaking of course, since higher prices and more volatility will create larger price swings, but 2009-2012 were no laughing matter and a lot of people here thought the end was nigh. 

Rocky Mountain, I think. 

[paqart]

On 12/3/2023 at 10:21 PM, VintageComics said:

It's not a vow, I just don't want prying eyes or competitors knowing more than they need to. 

If I knew how to make a spreadsheet like that. I'd make a list of CGC 9.8 or highest graded books, 

I'd sort them on Comiclink from most expensive to least expensive and then I'd post the data into that spreadsheet down to about the low 4 figure mark. Below about $4-5K the number of books really starts to increase and makes it voluminous and wieldy. 

Then I'd compare that data to previous high grade sales. 

That's the market I'd be most interested in to know what's happening. 

How to do it in Python:

def investment_comparison(comic_value, condition_98_multiplier, condition_75_multiplier):

investment_98 = comic_value * condition_98_multiplier

investment_75 = comic_value * condition_75_multiplier * 10

if investment_98 > investment_75:

return "1 copy in 9.8 condition"

elif investment_98 < investment_75:

return "10 copies in 7.5 condition"

else:

return "Both options have the same expected return"

# Assuming the comic is worth $1000

comic_value = 1000 # Assuming the 9.8 condition multiplier is 2 and the 7.5 condition multiplier is 1.5

condition_98_multiplier = 2

condition_75_multiplier = 1.5

better_investment = investment_comparison(comic_value, condition_98_multiplier, condition_75_multiplier) print(better_investment)

[VintageComics]

On 12/3/2023 at 11:36 PM, paqart said:

How to do it in Python:

Dude, the only python I know how to work with is my own.

[VintageComics]

On 12/3/2023 at 11:05 PM, dikran said:

Rocky Mountain, I think. 

That was it! 

We also had an AF #15 boom happen around 2010, if I'm not mistaken. The first 9.4 to break $200K happened around that time and people lost their minds. 

Edited December 4, 2023 by VintageComics

[buttock]

On 12/3/2023 at 11:36 AM, mjoeyoung said:

I was a bit surprised by these Amazing Spider-Man #1 prices from Comiclink on Friday:

Stan Lee signed 4.0 for $10K = Last sale $13.7K, 12M Avg $12K

2.5 for $4700 = Last sale in Nov for $6600, 12M Avg $8K

2.0 for $4955 = Last sale in Nov for $7200, 12M Avg $8K

Last time a  2.0 sold for under $5K was 2020 when the average of 8 sales was $4711. Highest sale was in Oct 2021 for $13.2K

Last time a 2.5 sold for under $5K was also 2020 when the average of 13 sales was $5468.  Highest sale was in Jan 2022 for $14.4K

Last time for a 4.0 under $10K was Jan 2021 for $8625 before prices ballooned.  Average of 10 sales was $13.9K.  Highest sale was in Apr 2022 for $18.6K

An interesting point (to me at least) is that  5/6 4.0s sold this year and 4/5 2.5s recorded by the GPA have been sold through Heritage.

I bought an ASM 1 in late 19/early 20.  When the value tripled a few months later I immediately sent it to Bob Storms along with a JIM 83.  They sold within 24 hours and haven't fetched the same prices since.  

[Microchip]

 

On 12/4/2023 at 4:10 PM, buttock said:

I bought an ASM 1 in late 19/early 20.  When the value tripled a few months later I immediately sent it to Bob Storms along with a JIM 83.  They sold within 24 hours and haven't fetched the same prices since.  

I remember when that sole 9.8 FF#49 went for $44k in 2016.   The lunacy was unbelievable!   The stupidity of the buyer, just incredible, and staggering to my understanding at the time.

Now... it looks like the bargain of the century.

 

 

[jimjum12]

On 12/4/2023 at 12:15 AM, Microchip said:

 

I remember when that sole 9.8 FF#49 went for $44k in 2016.   The lunacy was unbelievable!   The stupidity of the buyer, just incredible, and staggering to my understanding at the time.

Now... it looks like the bargain of the century.

 

 

And here 7 years later, there are only 2 copies in 9.8. 

I didn't mean to appear combative in my earlier post, but there are MANY moving parts in the comic book hobby. It started as something that was driven by an appreciation and extreme nostalgia for the art form. Somehow it has turned into Dow Jones 101. I preferred it when we just liked them a whole lot. I never felt comfortable with the idea of betting the farm on one. Focusing on Keys-only certainly addresses the demand side of the equation, but supply is also integral to the dynamic. GOD BLESS ...

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

Edited December 6, 2023 by jimjum12

[GermanFan]

I just read the market report of : "Art at auction. The year at Sotheby Parke Bernet" 1974-75 (right after the oil shock). It reads like written today: Falling prices all across the board. Rising interest rates, tough to lend money, banks going bankrupt, Inflation, Recession, declining stock and real estate. Worrying if and how the art market responds. Its all cycles. They go on reminding of all the recessions before, WW2, WW1, 19th century and so on. 

Nothing is new under this sun. Especially not the human condition.

[jimjum12]

On 12/4/2023 at 4:32 AM, GermanFan said:

Nothing is new under this sun. Especially not the human condition.

Or as it said in another book, "There is nothing new under the sun, all is vanity and vexation of the spirit." GOD BLESS ...

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)