Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[The humble Watcher lurking]

On 5/4/2024 at 7:48 AM, Old Fashion PB and J said:

may possibly be one of the most short sighted answers available.

Sometimes short-sighted answers are the best. I have been thinking long term. I will make a bet with you if the comic book market goes up a year from now I will send you one of  PayPal, Venmo, or Cash App to any charity of your choice $100.

If it goes down further like I think, then you send me $100 to a charity of my choice. 

Deal?

[The humble Watcher lurking]

On 5/4/2024 at 7:48 AM, Old Fashion PB and J said:

Just because YOU struggle to figure out how to better manage funds and time doesn't mean the world has moved on

I am not struggling as I am exactly doing pretty well. Most of the mainstream investors moved on. They will continue to move on. It wasn`t about cutting corners. Most people rather spend/invest their money on other things now. The Marvel movie spell hype is over. Wait a year when prices will be even lower.  This is a great time to be a comic book collector, not a comic book investor. Let`s face most comic book investors have lost 50% or more these last few years. We are not talking 5 or 10 percent. The same thing happened with sports cards and other collectibles. People got smart as in they can make more money in the stock market or high-yield savings account. 

[skypinkblu]

On 5/4/2024 at 1:35 PM, The humble Watcher lurking said:

I am not struggling as I am exactly doing pretty well. Most of the mainstream investors moved on. They will continue to move on. It wasn`t about cutting corners. Most people rather spend/invest their money on other things now. The Marvel movie spell hype is over. Wait a year when prices will be even lower.  This is a great time to be a comic book collector, not a comic book investor. Let`s face most comic book investors have lost 50% or more these last few years. We are not talking 5 or 10 percent. The same thing happened with sports cards and other collectibles. People got smart as in they can make more money in the stock market or high-yield savings account. 

I'm sure there are many people who just got into books to invest. Sadly, some of them never even opened their books to read them.

It never made much sense to me, to invest in collectibles, especially paper ones ...at least gold has some other value...but many of us who started collecting before CGC, never really planned on having retirement money from our collections. 

I have friends who are VERY smart people, who  have never sold a book, probably won't ever sell one...and then there were people like me, who sold books on eBay to buy more books, because that was the only way I could afford more (at the time).  The fact that some of my books went up in price, was a great perk, because I could more easily help with things for my family and others that I probably could not have done before...but many of my books were not and are not for sale, they are my hobby.

I never spent money on comics that I could not afford to lose, after all they are paper, so stuff happens ...so up or down...not such a huge deal. Maybe I should have sold the rest of my Marvels during the pandemic, but I don't have all that many left anyway. I was never a Marvel Geek (not that anything is wrong with it;)

In the past 10 or 15 years, I have seen more and more people come here who are not like me  or my friends who read comics. They are not collectors who might sell some because they could use  the funds, but love the medium. To many of the new people every nickel they can grab is important. 

I've seen people come here to look at prices like it's a ticker tape. I've never expected most of those people to stick around after the chance to make a lot of money changed.

It's fine...some are nice people ...and some are like TV ad people hawking stuff. Some of the nice people will stick around and some of the "influencers"...maybe not...which is fine.

 

[skypinkblu]

BTW, I'm not disparaging comic book dealers, most are long time members of the collecting community and an important part of the hobby. I'm talking about...the "oh look, there is a  shiny nickel, I can change that to a dime", people. Who then say..."whoops that dime is now worth 6 cents, look...I can collect fuzzidazzles instead and make 3 more cents!"...:See ya, this hobby is so over!"

[Stefan_W]

On 5/4/2024 at 1:55 PM, skypinkblu said:

I'm sure there are many people who just got into books to invest. Sadly, some of them never even opened their books to read them.

 

I refer to those folks as stamp collectors. What is inside the comic is meaningless to them - it is all about buying something for 10 bucks in order to flip it for 15. It could just as easily be stamps, cards, or vintage tea cups. 

 

On 5/4/2024 at 1:55 PM, skypinkblu said:

I've seen people come here to look at prices like it's a ticker tape. I've never expected most of those people to stick around after the chance to make a lot of money changed.

 

I understand and agree with where you are coming from here, but I want to add some nuance to that picture. I work in a field where I analyze numbers. I like to collect as much information as possible about whatever I am doing - this is just the way I am put together. A huge part of the fun of the hobby for me is to look at trends, and a big part of that is subscribing to data sources like GPAnalysis. If others collect in different ways and do not care for the numbers so much then that is totally their prerogative. But for me the hobby would be way less fun and engaging without that ticker tape you mention. 

[thehumantorch]

On 5/4/2024 at 7:59 AM, jimjum12 said:

This is exactly what I meant. GPA is also a little threadbare in regards to book specifics, or they were. Many times, an outlier hammers out for a reason, not necessarily because someone was way less intellectually developed than someone else. Sometimes, it actually IS the *ahem* white pages. GOD BLESS ...

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

Or the book has extra bright color or the book has pressable defects or the book presents nicely for the grade or the book appears to be tightly graded.
Past sales are helpful but really counts is the buyer and seller agree on a price and make an exchange.

[thehumantorch]

On 5/4/2024 at 11:35 AM, The humble Watcher lurking said:

I am not struggling as I am exactly doing pretty well. Most of the mainstream investors moved on. They will continue to move on. It wasn`t about cutting corners. Most people rather spend/invest their money on other things now. The Marvel movie spell hype is over. Wait a year when prices will be even lower.  This is a great time to be a comic book collector, not a comic book investor. Let`s face most comic book investors have lost 50% or more these last few years. We are not talking 5 or 10 percent. The same thing happened with sports cards and other collectibles. People got smart as in they can make more money in the stock market or high-yield savings account. 

I've been collecting since the mid 1970s and while prices have occasionally dropped the long term trend has been up and more up.  Maybe this is the start of a long downward trend or maybe it's just a reset after covid cleared up.  None of us really know but I see prices going up for a lot of the books and artists I like and collect.  LB Cole is on fire, Baker is on fire - how do I put a little rocket in here like all those cool kids on facebook?  -  Marvel Mysteries have jumped, the best of the best precode horror has double yet again.  

And I don't want to sound insensitive but if prices plummeting drives out all the sports card guys and the youtubers and the guys who're strictly in this make a buck and the guys who don't love the medium I'm more than okay with that.  Let's push prices down another 50% and get rid of them all.

[Lightning55]

On 5/4/2024 at 5:05 PM, thehumantorch said:

I've been collecting since the mid 1970s and while prices have occasionally dropped the long term trend has been up and more up.  Maybe this is the start of a long downward trend or maybe it's just a reset after covid cleared up.  None of us really know but I see prices going up for a lot of the books and artists I like and collect.  LB Cole is on fire, Baker is on fire - how do I put a little rocket in here like all those cool kids on facebook?  -  Marvel Mysteries have jumped, the best of the best precode horror has double yet again.  

And I don't want to sound insensitive but if prices plummeting drives out all the sports card guys and the youtubers and the guys who're strictly in this make a buck and the guys who don't love the medium I'm more than okay with that.  Let's push prices down another 50% and get rid of them all.

"I don't want to sound insensitive but.....get rid of them all."

That cracked me up!

[ttfitz]

On 5/4/2024 at 1:55 PM, skypinkblu said:

I have friends who are VERY smart people, who  have never sold a book, probably won't ever sell one...

 

Edited May 4 by ttfitz

[Old Fashion PB and J]

On 5/4/2024 at 1:23 PM, The humble Watcher lurking said:

Sometimes short-sighted answers are the best. I have been thinking long term. I will make a bet with you if the comic book market goes up a year from now I will send you one of  PayPal, Venmo, or Cash App to any charity of your choice $100.

If it goes down further like I think, then you send me $100 to a charity of my choice. 

Deal?

Seems ambiguous at best. Books will always go up and down, tastes change, focus change, people come and go. If you really want to sit and act like it is guaranteed that books will continue to drop then we can certainly discuss how much Crime Suspenstories 22 will drop by at least 15% in all grades over the next year if that suits you? We obviously can't track everything and many blue chip books become less stable around movie hype.

[Old Fashion PB and J]

On 5/4/2024 at 1:35 PM, The humble Watcher lurking said:

I am not struggling as I am exactly doing pretty well. Most of the mainstream investors moved on. They will continue to move on. It wasn`t about cutting corners. Most people rather spend/invest their money on other things now. The Marvel movie spell hype is over. Wait a year when prices will be even lower.  This is a great time to be a comic book collector, not a comic book investor. Let`s face most comic book investors have lost 50% or more these last few years. We are not talking 5 or 10 percent. The same thing happened with sports cards and other collectibles. People got smart as in they can make more money in the stock market or high-yield savings account. 

 As a comic collector and dealer I can say 2 things with absolute confidence.

 The stock market at it's best has never been able to duplicate profits I have been able to find in comics.

 Coming in and trying to invest in comics while not knowing what you're doing is no different than if I came in and dumped all my money into a few stocks because some investing guru told me to. If you don't take the time to really learn comics (takes years), you will not be successful.

[october]

On 5/4/2024 at 12:23 PM, The humble Watcher lurking said:

Sometimes short-sighted answers are the best. I have been thinking long term. I will make a bet with you if the comic book market goes up a year from now I will send you one of  PayPal, Venmo, or Cash App to any charity of your choice $100.

If it goes down further like I think, then you send me $100 to a charity of my choice. 

Deal?

What's "the comic market" and how would you determine if it went up or down? By looking at the same tired top 100 Silver and Bronze keys and movie spec stuff? Those are not a proxy for back issue comics as a whole and never have been.

[thehumantorch]

On 5/4/2024 at 3:16 PM, Lightning55 said:

"I don't want to sound insensitive but.....get rid of them all."

That cracked me up!

I'm a sensitive old age guy.  

[ADAMANTIUM]

I hesitate to respond, definitely no never mind either way, but NM #98 and IH 180/181 might have done their spiking to come back down to earth?
The only "books" that I heard people spiking with due to the Deadpool/Wolverine flick was Wolverine #'s 154/155, but IDK how "true" that is either?  

[thehumantorch]

On 5/4/2024 at 6:03 PM, october said:

What's "the comic market" and how would you determine if it went up or down? By looking at the same tired top 100 Silver and Bronze keys and movie spec stuff? Those are not a proxy for back issue comics as a whole and never have been.

Unfortunately those tired SA and BA keys and Modern spec stuff is the comic market for many of those 'influencers'.  As much as I love early SA books there's a lot more out there. 

Had a local flipper selling some GA at a show.  He was asking the moon for an early Batman and a few other nice books but he had no idea LB Cole   Romance was worth anything.  I tried not to giggle when he quoted $25 for a classic Cole romance book that was worth 20 times more.  When I bought it he was thrilled because now he could afford supper.  Giggle.  I love guys who don't know as much as they think.

[DC#]

"The best indicator of future behavior is past behavior"

"Past performance is not indicative of future performance"

Take your pick.   50/50 shot.   Basically that is probably the general odds on a prediction of any market.    While human behavior, in general, is very very predictable - the exact timing, duration, intensity, etc of that behavior is much less predictable.     

One characteristic of collecting anything that can often override rational metrics, demographic trends, and logic is addiction.   Collecting and the associated quest can be very, very addicting.    I myself have made several very irrational purchases in this market just because the pull was so strong and I wanted it.    Further using myself as an example, I did not get back into collecting until late 2019 (so before the COVID rush) and right now I have no plans to exit.   I have remained a net buyer ever since I came back.    I have an addiction.   At the same time, I do look at these things as an investment - though not an investment I am depending on.   My optimistic view is that I may be close to break-even if I chose to exit in 10 years - which is a loss given the opportunity cost.    

I have stated before that I view these comics as some of the greatest pop art of the 20th century (and by the way - I own no books from the 21st century except a few Free Comic Book Day things I got with my kid).   I enjoy thumbing through the raw ones and staring at my wall of CGC slabs.   I love the quest of capturing high-grade silver and bronze books with amazing covers.    I enjoy spending time on these boards - despite the nastiness that can often crop up.    It all gives me more joy than heartburn for sure.  

I must assume that I am not unique - that there are more "newcomers" that got back into this for more than the financial return.   I have no idea if there are more of us than of the flippers - many who have likely moved on.     But I plan to continue on buying and collecting despite the 50/50 odds.     Maybe there is another "Black Swan" event over the horizon that will either tank or juice the market......can't live your life waiting on the unknowable to become known.   

[skypinkblu]

On 5/4/2024 at 4:14 PM, Stefan_W said:

I understand and agree with where you are coming from here, but I want to add some nuance to that picture. I work in a field where I analyze numbers. I like to collect as much information as possible about whatever I am doing - this is just the way I am put together. A huge part of the fun of the hobby for me is to look at trends, and a big part of that is subscribing to data sources like GPAnalysis. If others collect in different ways and do not care for the numbers so much then that is totally their prerogative. But for me the hobby would be way less fun and engaging without that ticker tape you mention. 

I'm married to an accountant and my daughter teaches calculus.  I have no problem with people who play with numbers or enjoy them. I hope you know that was not what I was talking about. 
I really appreciate the various tables that people post around here.

[thehumantorch]

On 5/4/2024 at 7:29 PM, skypinkblu said:

I'm married to an accountant and my daughter teaches calculus.  I have no problem with people who play with numbers or enjoy them. I hope you know that was not what I was talking about. 
I really appreciate the various tables that people post around here.

Byork

 

[skypinkblu]

On 5/4/2024 at 9:06 PM, DC# said:

 I have an addiction

I save people seats at the local comics anonymous meetings. They are local to anyone, just close your eyes, pick a seat and listen with the rest of us;)

[KCOComics]

On 5/4/2024 at 8:17 PM, thehumantorch said:

Unfortunately those tired SA and BA keys and Modern spec stuff is the comic market for many of those 'influencers'.  As much as I love early SA books there's a lot more out there. 

Had a local flipper selling some GA at a show.  He was asking the moon for an early Batman and a few other nice books but he had no idea LB Cole   Romance was worth anything.  I tried not to giggle when he quoted $25 for a classic Cole romance book that was worth 20 times more.  When I bought it he was thrilled because now he could afford supper.  Giggle.  I love guys who don't know as much as they think.

That's always really interesting to me. 

When you walk into most comic shops, the people working there have a few limited scope of knowledge....and GA is pretty far outside that scope. 

It's a bit disheartening for people making a living in comics to not know who Matt Baker or L.B Cole are... never mind more recent guys like Sterenko or Wrightson. But that's not where the business is for comic shops.