Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 42 42

[NoMan]

On 7/8/2024 at 7:42 AM, Buzzetta said:

Andrew... tell me the uncomfortable truth.

Are you sure?

Yes... 

Okay here we go. 

Have you ever seen those stories where people win the lottery suddenly coming into millions of dollars and then suddenly going broke?   Remember those VH1 Behind the Music specials?

The time period during and after the pandemic was marred with free money.   Yes, I said that.  Free money.   When people have a sense of free money they have a habit of not spending in a way that could be considered... "discretionary."

Now am I saying that this describes you?  I do not know you well enough to say that, so of course this does not describe "you" but my take on the collectables market. 

People should not have been spending the money that they did at the prices they were.

I personally inflated prices that were hail mary listings and almost everything sold at what I wanted them to sell at.  I have spoken about how my GI Joe collection went for unheard of prices that still have not been reached for loose figures.  When people asked me to negotiate, I flat out refused only for the negotiator to find out that someone else took it at full value.  I quite literally sold off maybe 1/3 to 2/5 of my toy collections from Joe to Lego to Transformers and Star Wars.  Anything I missed, I bought back at less than I was paid for it. 

I personally know of people (not friends) that were buying non-essentials instead of paying rent because there was a moratorium placed on rent collections.  Why pay if they said you did not have to and why save that free money for back rent, you can work that out later.  The person I know of bought a new playstation, TV and other things.

Individuals you say?  How about businesses?   One of my local pizza places that was OPEN the entire time claimed to have 45 employees and took over $300,000 to pay for lost payroll.  Pizza places were some of the only things that were continuously open and operated with an increase in volume.   $300,000... Seriously?  Free money.  The local pizza place employees 45 people?     What did he do with that money?  I am sure there was a team of relatives on the payroll from his kids to anyone else in the family and it went to someone's new boat or car. 

And this is one of many stories that are easily traced.  All you have to do is look and see who in your area received this money and then remember if they were open or not.  Party planning business... yeah they were shut down.  Lawn service?  Someone was mowing the whole neighborhood.  It wasn't me and no one else except for me around here does their own lawn so they didn't have mowers.  (I still use my Craftsman lawnmower.)  Yet, the lawn services collected too.  "Free money."

The point is, that prices reached an artificial high because people were throwing money at things with reckless abandon because they had it to throw.  Now, when reality sets in, they find that people no longer have some of that free money to spend and they are left holding the proverbial bag.  Suddenly people are not spending that much on those collectables. 

But Andrew, what about things like Action 1?  Or Superman 1?  Those are outliers.  But, keep in mind that even a pizza store owner may collect comics books and $300,000 goes a long way. 

I wish I had sold my AF15 during the pandemic free money thing. 

[Gatsby77]

On 7/8/2024 at 10:42 AM, Buzzetta said:

Andrew... tell me the uncomfortable truth.

Are you sure?

Yes... 

Okay here we go. 

Have you ever seen those stories where people win the lottery suddenly coming into millions of dollars and then suddenly going broke?   Remember those VH1 Behind the Music specials?

The time period during and after the pandemic was marred with free money.   Yes, I said that.  Free money.   When people have a sense of free money they have a habit of not spending in a way that could be considered... "discretionary."

Now am I saying that this describes you?  I do not know you well enough to say that, so of course this does not describe "you" but my take on the collectables market. 

People should not have been spending the money that they did at the prices they were.

I personally inflated prices that were hail mary listings and almost everything sold at what I wanted them to sell at.  I have spoken about how my GI Joe collection went for unheard of prices that still have not been reached for loose figures.  When people asked me to negotiate, I flat out refused only for the negotiator to find out that someone else took it at full value.  I quite literally sold off maybe 1/3 to 2/5 of my toy collections from Joe to Lego to Transformers and Star Wars.  Anything I missed, I bought back at less than I was paid for it. 

I personally know of people (not friends) that were buying non-essentials instead of paying rent because there was a moratorium placed on rent collections.  Why pay if they said you did not have to and why save that free money for back rent, you can work that out later.  The person I know of bought a new playstation, TV and other things.

Individuals you say?  How about businesses?   One of my local pizza places that was OPEN the entire time claimed to have 45 employees and took over $300,000 to pay for lost payroll.  Pizza places were some of the only things that were continuously open and operated with an increase in volume.   $300,000... Seriously?  Free money.  The local pizza place employees 45 people?     What did he do with that money?  I am sure there was a team of relatives on the payroll from his kids to anyone else in the family and it went to someone's new boat or car. 

And this is one of many stories that are easily traced.  All you have to do is look and see who in your area received this money and then remember if they were open or not.  Party planning business... yeah they were shut down.  Lawn service?  Someone was mowing the whole neighborhood.  It wasn't me and no one else except for me around here does their own lawn so they didn't have mowers.  (I still use my Craftsman lawnmower.)  Yet, the lawn services collected too.  "Free money."

The point is, that prices reached an artificial high because people were throwing money at things with reckless abandon because they had it to throw.  Now, when reality sets in, they find that people no longer have some of that free money to spend and they are left holding the proverbial bag.  Suddenly people are not spending that much on those collectables. 

But Andrew, what about things like Action 1?  Or Superman 1?  Those are outliers.  But, keep in mind that even a pizza store owner may collect comics books and $300,000 goes a long way. 

Yeah - but fraud and rent moratoriums aside, it was simpler than that too.

People couldn't go out - so spending money on typical discretionary things (like travel, restaurants and concerts) was impossible.

So, with nowhere to go, demand spiked for all sorts of collectibles that could continue to be bought online.

 

[Buzzetta]

On 7/9/2024 at 6:22 AM, NoMan said:

I wish I had sold my AF15 during the pandemic free money thing. 

Someone paid around $125,000 for a 5.5.  I remember those days as well.  I thought about selling one of my copies but I still feel that I may want to sell it later on. 

I mentioned this earlier, it is not worth as much as it was but it is still worth way more than I paid so I shrug because it is still a 'gain'. 

 

[Buzzetta]

On 7/9/2024 at 7:17 AM, Gatsby77 said:

Yeah - but fraud and rent moratoriums aside, it was simpler than that too.

People couldn't go out - so spending money on typical discretionary things (like travel, restaurants and concerts) was impossible.

So, with nowhere to go, demand spiked for all sorts of collectibles that could continue to be bought online.

 

Exactly and well put.  And then there were still people that do not "collect", that were paying full price for non-essentials in general.  New TVs, Playstations, home gym equipment, you name it.   And there was no need to have sales since demand shot through the roof while supply was limited and prices continued to rise because stores knew they could raise those prices and why wouldn't they?  

 

[MAR1979]

On 7/9/2024 at 1:41 AM, southern cross said:

I have a FF 4 in 3.5, as long as it doesn't drop under the price I paid for it 20 years ago then all good.

Another book is Avengers 1

During the boom a 6.5 sold for something crazy like $14k

I think it's dropped to around the $6.5k

As long as it doesn't drop to $800 then all good 

That does not account for inflation. To break even a book needs to be liquid at 2x the price from 20 years ago. Even then to break even Compared to the S&P 500 a book needs to be liquid at least 5x or is it 6-7x the original cost.

At 6500 appears you are close to even overall from an investment standpoint. 

Edited July 9 by MAR1979

[jimjum12]

On 7/8/2024 at 12:03 PM, LordRahl said:

after the housing crisis in 2009

Price points as well. There were MANY books that could still be afforded by the average collector, Rising prices had skyrocketed by 2019, so a loss of confidence would be harder to recover from than 2009, and especially the early 90's. You, for example, bought a high grade ASM 39 from my pal Richard for less than a grand. I think it slabbed at 9.4. It's settling at 4K now. A lot more collectors are game for a grand than four grand, same book, way different entry level. You already know what I'm talking about. GOD BLESS ...

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

Edited July 9 by jimjum12

[Neo "The One"]

On 7/8/2024 at 10:42 AM, Buzzetta said:

Andrew... tell me the uncomfortable truth.

Are you sure?

Yes... 

Okay here we go. 

Have you ever seen those stories where people win the lottery suddenly coming into millions of dollars and then suddenly going broke?   Remember those VH1 Behind the Music specials?

The time period during and after the pandemic was marred with free money.   Yes, I said that.  Free money.   When people have a sense of free money they have a habit of not spending in a way that could be considered... "discretionary."

Now am I saying that this describes you?  I do not know you well enough to say that, so of course this does not describe "you" but my take on the collectables market. 

People should not have been spending the money that they did at the prices they were.

I personally inflated prices that were hail mary listings and almost everything sold at what I wanted them to sell at.  I have spoken about how my GI Joe collection went for unheard of prices that still have not been reached for loose figures.  When people asked me to negotiate, I flat out refused only for the negotiator to find out that someone else took it at full value.  I quite literally sold off maybe 1/3 to 2/5 of my toy collections from Joe to Lego to Transformers and Star Wars.  Anything I missed, I bought back at less than I was paid for it. 

I personally know of people (not friends) that were buying non-essentials instead of paying rent because there was a moratorium placed on rent collections.  Why pay if they said you did not have to and why save that free money for back rent, you can work that out later.  The person I know of bought a new playstation, TV and other things.

Individuals you say?  How about businesses?   One of my local pizza places that was OPEN the entire time claimed to have 45 employees and took over $300,000 to pay for lost payroll.  Pizza places were some of the only things that were continuously open and operated with an increase in volume.   $300,000... Seriously?  Free money.  The local pizza place employees 45 people?     What did he do with that money?  I am sure there was a team of relatives on the payroll from his kids to anyone else in the family and it went to someone's new boat or car. 

And this is one of many stories that are easily traced.  All you have to do is look and see who in your area received this money and then remember if they were open or not.  Party planning business... yeah they were shut down.  Lawn service?  Someone was mowing the whole neighborhood.  It wasn't me and no one else except for me around here does their own lawn so they didn't have mowers.  (I still use my Craftsman lawnmower.)  Yet, the lawn services collected too.  "Free money."

The point is, that prices reached an artificial high because people were throwing money at things with reckless abandon because they had it to throw.  Now, when reality sets in, they find that people no longer have some of that free money to spend and they are left holding the proverbial bag.  Suddenly people are not spending that much on those collectables. 

But Andrew, what about things like Action 1?  Or Superman 1?  Those are outliers.  But, keep in mind that even a pizza store owner may collect comics books and $300,000 goes a long way. 

What is incredible about this (and I believe it) is that if you are getting free money, buy a collectible for an inflated price, and then sell it later for less, you are STILL ahead of the game, because it was FREE!  Says more about our leadership and crooked businesses more than anything.

[Buzzetta]

On 7/9/2024 at 8:51 AM, Neo "The One" said:

What is incredible about this (and I believe it) is that if you are getting free money, buy a collectible for an inflated price, and then sell it later for less, you are STILL ahead of the game, because it was FREE!  Says more about our leadership and crooked businesses more than anything.

It says more about people.  

I have not mentioned government as it crosses both political parties.  I have mentioned local mom and pop businesses because they escaped scrutiny unlike watchdog groups who focus on big business. 

Those are not institutions but people. 

[Motor City Rob]

On 7/9/2024 at 2:06 AM, lou_fine said:

Yes, whatever happened to all of the boardies who said that they couldn't wait for prices to fall so that they could start buying books again.  

Or is it a case of prices still simply being too high and waiting for them to fall even further before coming in to hit the buy button?  

Pretty sure many fall into the latter. All signs point to prices of Silver and Bronze keys continuing to fall. Always difficult to hold off on buying what seems to be a good price, but knowing next month will most likely be even better puts people in a somewhat perpetual state of waiting. 

[rsouxlja7]

On 7/9/2024 at 1:06 AM, lou_fine said:

Yes, whatever happened to all of the boardies who said that they couldn't wait for prices to fall so that they could start buying books again.  

Or is it a case of prices still simply being too high and waiting for them to fall even further before coming in to hit the buy button?  

I can only guess that the people who make statements like that don't have a lot of money sunk into these books or are wealthy from other means. Does anyone REALLY want prices to fall if their collection that used to be worth $100,000 is now worth $250,000 just so they can buy another funny book they'll never look at for a bit cheaper?  Maybe I'm just not as big of a comic book fan as the next guy but I sure didn't. 

[MatterEaterLad]

On 7/8/2024 at 11:41 PM, southern cross said:

Another book is Avengers 1

During the boom a 6.5 sold for something crazy like $14k

I think it's dropped to around the $6.5k

As long as it doesn't drop to $800 then all good 

I just checked. One went for $15,600 . Yikes that's a price drop. 

I sold my 6.5 near the peak of the craziness. At the time I wished it had sold for more, but compared to a recent sale at $5800, I did okay.

[Black_Adam]

On 7/8/2024 at 5:13 PM, thehumantorch said:

Well, FF is pretty well a blood bath.  

Here's #4 in 6.0.  Key important book, early SA Marvel, not rare but not super common in decent shape.  High of $12888 in 2021 and a recent sale of $2880.  So currently selling for 22% of it's high in 2021 and 70% of it's high in 2019.   It's worth less than precovid and it's pretty shocking when you start doing the math.  And I'll find similar results for other grades and other SA issues in the run

Total books sold69High/Low price recorded$12888 / $500

Year	Number	High	Low
2024	1	$2880	$2880
2023	2	$4200	$3810
2022	5	$10100	$6000
2021	4	$12888	$4500
2020	4	$4800	$3000
2019	3	$4000	$3511

 

FF has been a blood bath the past few years. But FF #4 was also a victim of frenzied speculation leading up to Subby's movie premiere and the subsequent panic selling once everyone actually watched the movie and realized how Marvel had botched his on-screen debut.   

[DC#]

On 7/9/2024 at 7:31 AM, MatterEaterLad said:

I just checked. One went for $15,600 . Yikes that's a price drop. 

I sold my 6.5 near the peak of the craziness. At the time I wished it had sold for more, but compared to a recent sale at $5800, I did okay.

 

On 7/9/2024 at 7:52 AM, Black_Adam said:

FF has been a blood bath the past few years. But FF #4 was also a victim of frenzied speculation leading up to Subby's movie premiere and the subsequent panic selling once everyone actually watched the movie and realized how Marvel had botched his on-screen debut.   

FF #5 also not doing so well.....this just sold on Heritage last night.      There have been a few sales in the past 6 months in the $9K range but also a few in the $12k range.     Peak for a 6.0 was just south of $29k in April 2022.   

[RockMyAmadeus]

[kimik]

It seems like prices are firming on some titles, but not all. I really wish Neal Adams Bats and Tec issues would tank.

[NewWorldOrder]

On 7/9/2024 at 4:24 AM, Buzzetta said:

Exactly and well put.  And then there were still people that do not "collect", that were paying full price for non-essentials in general.  New TVs, Playstations, home gym equipment, you name it.   And there was no need to have sales since demand shot through the roof while supply was limited and prices continued to rise because stores knew they could raise those prices and why wouldn't they?  

 

During COVID everyone was buying all those stay at home products/services, while all of us should have been buying more Chevron and Exxon Mobil stock while they were on a once in a lifetime sale discount!

So many polarizing topics going back and forth during COVID as we all know, but I still remember the dumbest viewpoint by many was...

(paraphrasing)

"Gas and Oil are no longer in high demand ever again."

 

[Buzzetta]

On 7/9/2024 at 12:24 PM, NewWorldOrder said:

During COVID everyone was buying all those stay at home products/services, while all of us should have been buying more Chevron and Exxon Mobil stock while they were on a once in a lifetime sale discount!

So many polarizing topics going back and forth during COVID as we all know, but I still remember the dumbest viewpoint by many was...

(paraphrasing)

"Gas and Oil are no longer in high demand ever again."

 

I had the roof of my house torn off and rebuilt and a bathroom gutted and rebuilt.  I also bought Shell, BP, and Enbridge. 

I think I did buy a page of art or two since the art was 1:1 and if I passed up on it, I would never see it again.  Nothing over $1000 on a page of art though. 

[southern cross]

On 7/9/2024 at 5:00 AM, MAR1979 said:

That does not account for inflation. To break even a book needs to be liquid at 2x the price from 20 years ago. Even then to break even Compared to the S&P 500 a book needs to be liquid at least 5x or is it 6-7x the original cost.

At 6500 appears you are close to even overall from an investment standpoint. 

I think it's 20 years.

I bought the Avengers 1 in 6.5 six months before the first Avengers movie.

The $800 is in Australian dollar so conversion would be like roughly $500 US.

But I didn't think about the inflation. 

But it was a grail book so investment wasn't on my mind.

[NoMan]

On 7/9/2024 at 4:21 AM, Buzzetta said:

Someone paid around $125,000 for a 5.5.  I remember those days as well.  I thought about selling one of my copies but I still feel that I may want to sell it later on. 

I mentioned this earlier, it is not worth as much as it was but it is still worth way more than I paid so I shrug because it is still a 'gain'. 

 

therein lays the problem: everybody sees big sales and they all rush to the exit door and boom! - a glut of copies.

I think my 8.5 is worth more then I paid for it in 2017, so yes a gain. 

[thehumantorch]

On 7/9/2024 at 12:06 AM, lou_fine said:

Yes, whatever happened to all of the boardies who said that they couldn't wait for prices to fall so that they could start buying books again.  

Or is it a case of prices still simply being too high and waiting for them to fall even further before coming in to hit the buy button?  

I'm buying.  I've never stopped since I was a kid.  Just bought an ASM #9 in 7.0