Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 41 41

[VintageComics]

Pretty surprising results in today's Heritage Auction in the books I followed.

Even relatively common books seemed to go for decent numbers but the special stuff went bonkers.

Edited Thursday at 11:20 PM by VintageComics

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 9/12/2024 at 7:03 PM, VintageComics said:

Pretty surprising results in today's Heritage Auction in the books I followed.

Even relatively common books seemed to go for decent numbers but the special stuff went bonkers.

They seem to do a great job getting eyeballs on their featured auction, which is wild given that it's right in the middle of the work day.

[pickycollector]

Two Startling Comics #49 in CGC 5.5 recently sold in auctions:

First sold for $13,050 on Comiclink: Comiclink book

Second sold for $36,000 on Heritage: Heritage link 

I just do not understand such a huge difference in price between both 

[DC#]

On 9/12/2024 at 7:27 PM, pickycollector said:

Two Startling Comics #49 in CGC 5.5 recently sold in auctions:

First sold for $13,050 on Comiclink: Comiclink book

Second sold for $36,000 on Heritage: Heritage link 

I just do not understand such a huge difference in price between both 

Apparently cream pages gets you a 63% discount.  
 

[Microchip]

On 9/13/2024 at 12:27 PM, pickycollector said:

I just do not understand such a huge difference in price between both 

Different audiences, and different sizes of audience. 

[1Cool]

On 9/12/2024 at 10:27 PM, pickycollector said:

Two Startling Comics #49 in CGC 5.5 recently sold in auctions:

First sold for $13,050 on Comiclink: Comiclink book

Second sold for $36,000 on Heritage: Heritage link 

I just do not understand such a huge difference in price between both 

I don't waste any time watching the Heritage auctions since their audience is pretty wacky on a lot of books.  They typically only sell very high end books to people with a ton of extra cash so you never know what the final hammer price will be. 

[jjonahjameson11]

On 9/13/2024 at 8:28 AM, 1Cool said:

I don't waste any time watching the Heritage auctions since their audience is pretty wacky on a lot of books.  They typically only sell very high end books to people with a ton of extra cash so you never know what the final hammer price will be. 

Their audience is pretty wacky?

I’m their audience and I’m among the most grounded, blue collar guys who collect comics and OA 😎

[EastEnd1]

On 9/13/2024 at 8:28 AM, 1Cool said:

I don't waste any time watching the Heritage auctions since their audience is pretty wacky on a lot of books.  They typically only sell very high end books to people with a ton of extra cash so you never know what the final hammer price will be. 

No question Heritage is at the top of the food chain.  The results in the first day of their signature auctions are predominantly in key golden age and high grade key silver.  The former never really experienced a significant post-covid drop... (Promise books aside), while the latter seem to have shown recent signs of rebounding.  So I'd agree you can't read too much into it.  The material coming tomorrow will be more "normal" and maybe a better indicator of what's happening in the overall market.  I think their weekly auctions are useful also.

Edited Friday at 01:29 PM by EastEnd1

[1Cool]

On 9/13/2024 at 8:54 AM, jjonahjameson11 said:

Their audience is pretty wacky?

I’m their audience and I’m among the most grounded, blue collar guys who collect comics and OA 😎

I stand corrected   I said you guys are wacky when it comes to certain books getting huge surges if a couple big bucks people want a book.  I call it wacky since a lot of times a similar copy could be had for 1/3 either on ComicLink or via E-Bay.  It's not my market so I just disregard the auction completely except to marvel at values that get posted here and there.

[Robot Man]

On 9/13/2024 at 5:54 AM, jjonahjameson11 said:

Their audience is pretty wacky?

I’m their audience and I’m among the most grounded, blue collar guys who collect comics and OA 😎

Heck, I no longer wear any collar. I’m retired. I long ago gave up HA…

[EastEnd1]

On 9/13/2024 at 10:09 AM, Robot Man said:

Heck, I no longer wear any collar. I’m retired. I long ago gave up HA…

I'd given up on Heritage too... hadn't even bid on a comic in years.  I thought the DC silver keys were going for pretty reasonable prices though yesterday and made my first Heritage purchase in a very long time.

[justafan]

On 9/13/2024 at 8:54 AM, jjonahjameson11 said:

Their audience is pretty wacky?

I’m their audience and I’m among the most grounded, blue collar guys who collect comics and OA 😎

Agreed I'm part of their audience and though I'm not as grounded as you and I may get wacky with bids occasionally, I'm frequently blown away by what things go for on Heritage, in both directions.  I considered bidding on some books but once the live bidding began, the phone and internet bids shot above what I was considering.  On the other hand, I thought I saw some SA keys go for pre-pandemic prices.  The extended live bidding format with the audio of the host urging the bidders on might be the difference in spurring more FOMO from hesitant bidders.

On 9/13/2024 at 10:28 AM, EastEnd1 said:

I'd given up on Heritage too... hadn't even bid on a comic in years.  I thought the DC silver keys were going for pretty reasonable prices though yesterday and made my first Heritage purchase in a very long time.

It has been a while since I've won and bought anything from Heritage.  Between 2012 and 2017 I was receiving packages from them nearly every weekend.  Then the really "wacky" folks jumped in and I had to cut back on anything that wasn't a must win which might be the mentality that they're going for.  Part of it for me with Heritage might be due to them reporting to GPA.  If I want a book but know I won't win it, I won't bother bidding as I don't want to unnecessarily inflate the price any higher than it already will be.

I'm also a no-collar guy.

[LordRahl]

On 9/9/2024 at 12:52 PM, 1Cool said:

What indicators are you using to formulate this opinion?  Talking about the ultra high grade market? The chart just posted are auctions of the top books in the hobby and I see a lot more reds than I see blacks or greens.  I don't see anyone talking about hot books in various threads and the Modern / Copper / Bronze markets don't seem to be rebounding but this is only based on watching E-Bay sales so I may not be seeing everything.  I'd like to argue that I'm seeing a leveling of most books but I still see a lot of weakness other than the hardest to find books and some ultra high grade markets like Horror or some DCs.  Buyers are still acting like it's a buyers market so I'm not sure why you think a rebound is happening.

Here's the problem with comparing individual sales instead of averages. Books at auction sell within a broad range of prices. This has always been the case. I would expect that if you did this same exercise at any point in time (including during the covid boom), you would see a bunch of red because any book is as likely to sell for less compared to last sale as not. Look at the below sales for ASM 50 in 8.0. I picked this book randomly because it's a key SA book and I know it has plenty of sales in 8.0 so that we're not talking about only a couple of sales in a year or two. The first number represents the high for that year and the second is the low. Look at the spreads even in 2021 and 2022 right during the boom. Huge. If you happened to compare that book from one sale to another, depending on which sale you happened to look at, it could have been in the red by 45%. Yet the overall trend was obviously up. Same thing for any year.... 40+% spread from high to low. 

2024	15	$3250	$2160
2023	11	$3360	$1904
2022	11	$4560	$2750
2021	15	$4900	$2100
2020	26	$2430	$1230
2019	22	$1930	$1150

[1Cool]

On 9/13/2024 at 1:25 PM, LordRahl said:

Here's the problem with comparing individual sales instead of averages. Books at auction sell within a broad range of prices. This has always been the case. I would expect that if you did this same exercise at any point in time (including during the covid boom), you would see a bunch of red because any book is as likely to sell for less compared to last sale as not. Look at the below sales for ASM 50 in 8.0. I picked this book randomly because it's a key SA book and I know it has plenty of sales in 8.0 so that we're not talking about only a couple of sales in a year or two. The first number represents the high for that year and the second is the low. Look at the spreads even in 2021 and 2022 right during the boom. Huge. If you happened to compare that book from one sale to another, depending on which sale you happened to look at, it could have been in the red by 45%. Yet the overall trend was obviously up. Same thing for any year.... 40+% spread from high to low. 

2024	15	$3250	$2160
2023	11	$3360	$1904
2022	11	$4560	$2750
2021	15	$4900	$2100
2020	26	$2430	$1230
2019	22	$1930	$1150

Good point but when you have such a large list of key books and there is so much red even when the auction price is compared to the 90-day average (which would eliminate some of the bias of the info since the last sale could be via a  BIN on E-Bay which is typically higher).  The auction price is what is being discussed we have to use that data and for me I see a whole lot of red compared to the 90 day average which tells me prices are on the decline compared to what has been realized this summer.  Auction data is not a complete market snapshot but I bet if you looked at the 90-day average of almost any common key book it would be less than the average for 12 months (some drastically down) which is a great summary of the current market.  The declines are slowing and in some cases leveling off but I still see a lot of softness in most sections of the market.    

[GrasshopperFF]

On 9/13/2024 at 10:28 AM, EastEnd1 said:

I'd given up on Heritage too... hadn't even bid on a comic in years.  I thought the DC silver keys were going for pretty reasonable prices though yesterday and made my first Heritage purchase in a very long time.

I was watching the same auction and agree with you. I should have taken a swing at the first Penguin in an early detective comics. It went waaayyy under list price. Settled for an Avengers 4 in a 9.2. 

[LordRahl]

On 9/13/2024 at 10:54 AM, 1Cool said:

Good point but when you have such a large list of key books and there is so much red even when the auction price is compared to the 90-day average (which would eliminate some of the bias of the info since the last sale could be via a  BIN on E-Bay which is typically higher).  The auction price is what is being discussed we have to use that data and for me I see a whole lot of red compared to the 90 day average which tells me prices are on the decline compared to what has been realized this summer.  Auction data is not a complete market snapshot but I bet if you looked at the 90-day average of almost any common key book it would be less than the average for 12 months (some drastically down) which is a great summary of the current market.  The declines are slowing and in some cases leveling off but I still see a lot of softness in most sections of the market.    

You are correct. 90 day averages vs 12 month is still down however it's tapering off. Take the same ASM 50, 90 day vs 12 month is down about 5% in every grade that has sales except weirdly enough 8.0 which is very slightly up. Even if you take another 5-10% off the 90 day average, you would still be well above 2019 average. Definitely not quite the GCC that everyone is on about. If the Covid boom had not been so dramatic, we'd be talking about how much the market has gained in the last 3-4 years. Context, context, context.

[1Cool]

On 9/13/2024 at 2:14 PM, LordRahl said:

You are correct. 90 day averages vs 12 month is still down however it's tapering off. Take the same ASM 50, 90 day vs 12 month is down about 5% in every grade that has sales except weirdly enough 8.0 which is very slightly up. Even if you take another 5-10% off the 90 day average, you would still be well above 2019 average. Definitely not quite the GCC that everyone is on about. If the Covid boom had not been so dramatic, we'd be talking about how much the market has gained in the last 3-4 years. Context, context, context.

I think people group the COVID boom with the speculation boom over the last 10 years or so.  You have key books spike and then crash back down to earth (some times still higher then in 2019 like the ASM 50 in CGC 8.0) and you also have the complete collapse in pretty much every speculation book at the same time.  WBN 32 in most grades has to be back to below 2019 values.  Nevermind stuff like She-Hulk 1 and Eternals 1 and even down to New Mutants 14 which have all seen a collapse in prices.  Silver Age is not fairing as badly when you take out the COVID spike but when you look at Bronze / Copper / Modern books things really look ugly at the moment when you compare things to the pre-COVID boom.  Even in those more modern books things seem to be levelling a bit so it isn't all bad but when people talk about the market stinking lately they probably are talking more universally compared to books like ASM 50 CGC 8.0 which is still a hard to find book for most.

Edited Friday at 06:34 PM by 1Cool

[LordRahl]

On 9/13/2024 at 11:33 AM, 1Cool said:

I think people group the COVID boom with the speculation boom over the last 10 years or so.  You have key books spike and then crash back down to earth (some times still higher then in 2019 like the ASM 50 in CGC 8.0) and you also have the complete collapse in pretty much every speculation book at the same time.  WBN 32 in most grades has to be back to below 2019 values.  Nevermind stuff like She-Hulk 1 and Eternals 1 and even down to New Mutants 14 which have all seen a collapse in prices.  Silver Age is not fairing as badly when you take out the COVID spike but when you look at Bronze / Copper / Modern books things really look ugly at the moment when you compare things to the pre-COVID boom.  Even in those more modern books things seem to be levelling a bit so it isn't all bad but when people talk about the market stinking lately they probably are talking more universally compared to books like ASM 50 CGC 8.0 which is still a hard to find book for most.

It's not just ASM 50 in 8.0. It's ASM 50, in any grade (as my post says).

I think you are making assumptions without actually looking at data. Eternals 1 and She Hulk 1, sure. Those are spectacular flame outs. But those are spec books and how many spec books are there? A few dozen? A couple hundred? It's a very, very small subset. 

New Mutants 14 averages in 9.6 and 9.8 are above 2019 averages.

New Mutants 98 same.

ASM 121 same for all grades.

X Men 141 and 142 same in 9.4, 9.6 and 9.8.

Uncanny X Men 212 same in 9.6 and 9.8.

I tried to pick some random books that weren't spec books in the last few years and span Bronze and Copper (can't be bothered with moderns since I don't collect them and don't know the market) but I think you will find this holds true for any book that is not a spec book like She Hulk 1.

[1Cool]

I’ll have to take the data you give me about the more common non spec books since I don’t have GPA.  I will have to say I’d much rather be trying to sell a New Mutant 98 or X-Men 266 or X-Men 141 in 2019 compared to now.  If prices are still up for graded books then I will tell ya demand is definitely down.  But since 2019 is going on 5 years - it’s all historical data at this point.  Bunch of post about how bronze and copper prices on pretty much every type of book continues to slide (but leveling) so I guess we will see if we have hit bottom like Roy is suggesting.

[DC#]

Here are some results from yesterday's Heritage auction - slightly different format given the nature of the books.    Apologies in advance to GA Subby and some of the EC titles - there were so many I really didn't recap them very well.