How rare are modern newsstand editions? 5 5

[valiantman]

On 1/29/2022 at 5:32 PM, FlyingDonut said:

There also is a HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE selection bias here in that I believe people are conflating a ratio of "books available on eBay" with the ratio of books that were produced and sold. If there is a 4:167 ratio of newsstands to books available on eBay that does not mean that was the ratio of books produced and sold...

What is a reasonable estimate for the actual ratio if the "books available on eBay" is 4:167? That's about 2.5% newsstand, in that example. 

Are you suggesting the actual newsstand ratio could be 5%?  10%?  20%?   Surely you have some estimate in mind.

[FlyingDonut]

On 1/29/2022 at 6:46 PM, valiantman said:

What is a reasonable estimate for the actual ratio if the "books available on eBay" is 4:167? That's about 2.5% newsstand, in that example. 

Are you suggesting the actual newsstand ratio could be 5%?  10%?  20%?   Surely you have some estimate in mind.

This is complete conjecture but something like this - I have picked a random book from the end.

Amazing Spider-Man 695, which shows 58,195 copies ordered from Diamond.

There were 691 Barnes and Noble stores in 2012, plus whatever Canadian newsstand distribution there was. Assume 10 per outlet and assume 109 (just for ease of math) Canadian outlets, that 8,000 newsstand copies, for a ratio of 13.7%. That sounds probably about right for ASM - for lesser titles it was probably lower, but that strikes me as a much more realistic ratio of 1:7.5 (roughly) than 1:100.

[paqart]

On 1/29/2022 at 6:01 PM, FlyingDonut said:

There's a HUGE "yes but" here, however. Books being sold on eBay - for the most part - are being sold by comic book "collectors" of some sort, who bought them at comic stores. What is the term? Selection bias?

Another term might be useful, "best available sample". EBay wasn't chosen due to a preference for eBay that pre-dated the research. It was chosen after looking at a number of other options, including combining the options, and then chosen because newsstand appearances are so rare everywhere else that it was the best place to go to find them in quantity. If you want results that make newsstand editions appear even more rare, use something other than eBay.

Heritage auctions: Great source for comics like ASM #300. For comics post-2000, very poor. These rarely show up for auction on HA (at least the ones I'm looking for), in any version. Newsstand edition searches normally yield zero copies found, depending on the comic. On eBay, one is much more likely to find newsstand editions, even if you have to slog through 300-500 copies to find one.
HipComic: This is a terrible source because photos of newsstands are frequently stock photos. It happens on eBay also but is relatively rare in comparison. On HipComic, I have established that some of their most prolific sellers use stock images of newsstand editions regardless whether the seller actually has a newsstand edition. Subtract those sellers from the sample, and you're left with an occasional hobbyist or Mile High's copious listings there. That said, Mile High never lists many modern newsstand editions because they don't have them. When they do list, it is usually a maximum of about 3 copies of any given issue. Using HipComic, or combining their listings with eBay, would not change rarity estimates but they could confound them with false positives. The reason Mile High wouldn't affect the results much is that of their hundreds of newsstand listings, they are almost all different issues, causing a low density of 1-3 copies of any given issue. And again, they don't come close to full runs for many series.

MyComicShop: I don't use this to check on newsstand availability because their interface/web design takes a lot of effort to go through their listings. Also, they seem to have fewer newsstands than eBay, making them a poor choice to show how much less rare newsstands are than has been suggested here.

I've looked at other sites but it is always the same story: newsstands are harder to find everywhere else. It doesn't mean they aren't there, just that there aren't as many and it can take more effort to find the ones they have. That said, I did buy one newsstand from MyComicShop.com, an Adventures of Superman with a Supergirl cover for $75. I forget the issue offhand but want to say iy was #13 or so.

Flea markets and comic book conventions are great places to find newsstands, provided you only collect newsstands from the 80's and 90's. Even then, provided you can find someone selling comics, newsstands are no easier to find than they are on eBay. The only advantage to a flea market is that prices are lower. The disadvantage is that condition is usually worse and the comics you find aren't the ones you're looking for.

Another thing to keep in mind is the time it takes to root through boxes of comics vs. looking at online listings. You can spend hours trying to find random newsstands, or go to eBay and look up the specific issues you're looking for. To give an example I've used before, let's look at Catwoman #1 (2002).

I have never seen a newsstand copy of any issue of Catwoman (2002) at a flea market, comic book store, or convention. Never. Not one issue. I also have never seen a copy of #1 online at any source, and I've checked all the ones I know of. I have, however, seen newsstand editions of other issues from the series at a couple of online sites, notably eBay and HipComic. HipComic's newsstand Catwoman listings are almost all from Mile High, a store that is well-known for having made an effort to buy newsstand editions. Despite that, the selection available on that site is worse than what I've found on eBay, despite the fact that I have never seen about half of the series anywhere, not even in Mile High's enormous catalog of newsstands.

Time is important for at least two reasons. The first is that inefficient use of time means less data to analyze than more efficient methods. Second, if your search is too slow, you risk missing new listings after you've started looking. With eBay, you have a fair chance of getting through hundreds of listings in 20 minutes or so, thus limiting the possibility that the selection has meaningfully changed after you started counting.

There is such a thing as selection bias but it doesn't apply well to this situation. In this case, eBay may be the most appropriate selection given the options, and is in some ways better than any combination of available options. Selection bias becomes a more legitimate criticism if there are better options available or if eBay listings represented only one type of seller. It is true that using eBay as a resource limits the search to whatever is available on that site. However, eBay itself is an excellent randomizer. They accept sellers from anywhere, of any type. They have dealers, high end collectors, low end collectors, junk shop owners, non-collectors, estates, etc. All by themselves, eBay not only randomizes the sample better than any other options (where the type of sellers are more homogenous) but they also supply higher quantities than found elsewhere.

And then we have the bottom line. The criticism seems to be that because eBay is the source of market data, it has skewed that data to make newsstand editions look more rare than they are. From what I have seen, I do not think this is true. Notice, btw, I don't describe that position in the following way, "it is a LIE!" The difference between a lie and something I don't believe is true is vast. The problem with other sources is that they either don't have enough comics available to make a meaningful sample, it would take too long to get through them (looking at physical copies) with no reason to expect the desired issue will be found, or they don't have enough newsstand editions on offer to make their sample better than the eBay sample. Worse, alternative sources make newsstands appear to be more rare than an eBay sample because fewer copies are available. This is something that should be expected of anything that is truly rare: you have to go to the largest volume sellers to find any examples.

[paqart]

On 1/29/2022 at 6:57 PM, FlyingDonut said:

This is complete conjecture but something like this - I have picked a random book from the end.

Amazing Spider-Man 695, which shows 58,195 copies ordered from Diamond.

There were 691 Barnes and Noble stores in 2012, plus whatever Canadian newsstand distribution there was. Assume 10 per outlet and assume 109 (just for ease of math) Canadian outlets, that 8,000 newsstand copies, for a ratio of 13.7%. That sounds probably about right for ASM - for lesser titles it was probably lower, but that strikes me as a much more realistic ratio of 1:7.5 (roughly) than 1:100.

Weirdly enough, this estimate of yours is based on less information that Nobel, Valiantman, or I use in conversations here. The heart of the problem is that you are so biased against the idea of rarity beyond a certain level. Because of that bias, you substitute assumptions based on your own logic for observed evidence. That is affecting your ability to see this situation clearly. Objectively looking at this, it appears that 1) You believe it is impossible that Marvel and DC would print less than a certain number of newsstands per store, 2) you assume unknown quantities of unknown newsstand hoards to explain what otherwise looks like the destruction of printed newsstands in greater numbers than direct editions.

Those two assumptions are problematic because they 1) do not agree with observable data in the marketplace, 2) They don't appear to be based on anything more than what you think is logical, 3) They are useless in the context of buying decisions right now. If I had followed your advice, first seen a few years ago on these boards, I would have lost thousands of opportunities to buy extremely scarce items for prices that are now ridiculously low for the items involved. For instance, $80 for 2 copies of Hulk #1 (2008), one direct, the other newsstand, both 9.8 candidates (at CGC now). 

My impression is that you have very strong beliefs on this subject, for whatever reason. Maybe you have strong religious impulses to warn people of impending financial ruin because you are personally acquainted with the owner of a warehouse stuffed to the rafters with newsstand editions. Unless you have such a secret source of data that you cannot for certain reasons reveal, I cannot accept your arguments as well-founded. Your impression of what makes sense regarding Marvel and DC's decisions regarding print runs are irrelevant to the people who made those decisions and the decisions themselves. We already know from some collectors that Marvel appeared to be intentionally skipping certain retailers with newsstand editions of ASM in the south (those mislabeled as "Spectacular Spider-Man" on the UPC box). If they didn't print copies of ASM for some retail outlets, what other titles would they skip?

Again, all of this is irrelevant in the face of market availability. Print runs for Golden Age comics dwarfed any modern print runs, yet those multi-million unit selling comics are today rarer (at least in many examples) than modern comics with much smaller print runs. Despite that, newsstand editions of those same low print run comics are much rarer than "rare" golden age comics. Keep in mind that there is a difference between utopia and reality. In Utopia, we'd know everything about this subject and there would be no guesswork. Also in Utopia, logical inference would be good enough. In reality, if I want a certain newsstand comic tonight, I probably can't have it, regardless of price. If, on the other hand, I want almost any Golden Age comic, I could have it right now. The same is true of Silver and Bronze age comics. That, ultimately, is the point. When buyers can't have what they want, they look more assiduously and prices rise. So too, the perceived rarity of the comic. If they can't have what they want over weeks, months, or years, it is reasonable to conclude that the reason is that the item is actually rare. More than that, rarer than seems possible given recent vintage and other logical arguments.

I did a quick comparison of (I think) X-Men 177 a couple days ago; newsstand vs. direct. This a comic printed in high volume at a time when newsstands outnumbered directs by a large margin. And yet, the newsstand editions of that comic in any condition, based on the combined results from HA and eBay, show that the newsstand edition is currently less common than the direct. This is at a time when one estimate is that newsstands were 80% of the market. To get to the current numbers, 80% of the newsstand run would have to be destroyed with no corresponding loss of directs.

[FlyingDonut]

Dude, you need to switch to decaf. Seriously. I am not talking about the availability of them now. I am talking about the ratio of printed copies, which no one knows, and what was what @valiantmanasked for.

We have two pieces of empirical data, (1) the number of copies of ASM 695 sold by Diamond and (2) the number of Barnes and Noble stores in 2012. That's it. We have no other data. NONE. Everything else is at best informed guesses to determine what the populations of (1) newsstands (2) total copies left (3) total copies for sale (4) newsstand returned.

I believe a relatively informed guess is that Marvel printed more than 581 copies of Amazing Spider-Man 695 for newsstand sales (1:100). I believe another relatively informed guess is that there were probably copies of the highest selling Marvel book available for all distribution channels - how many there were for each one of those stores is a valid discussion point.

That being said, the ratio of newsstand copies available right now on eBay for ASM 695 is 1:29, or 3.44%. That indicates a print run of roughly 2,000. That seems low, but who knows?

[paqart]

On 1/29/2022 at 7:59 PM, FlyingDonut said:

Dude, you need to switch to decaf. Seriously. I am not talking about the availability of them now. I am talking about the ratio of printed copies, which no one knows, and what was what @valiantmanasked for.

We have two pieces of empirical data, (1) the number of copies of ASM 695 sold by Diamond and (2) the number of Barnes and Noble stores in 2012. That's it. We have no other data. NONE. Everything else is at best informed guesses to determine what the populations of (1) newsstands (2) total copies left (3) total copies for sale (4) newsstand returned.

I believe a relatively informed guess is that Marvel printed more than 581 copies of Amazing Spider-Man 695 for newsstand sales (1:100). I believe another relatively informed guess is that there were probably copies of the highest selling Marvel book available for all distribution channels - how many there were for each one of those stores is a valid discussion point.

That being said, the ratio of newsstand copies available right now on eBay for ASM 695 is 1:29, or 3.44%. That indicates a print run of roughly 2,000. That seems low, but who knows?

Keep in mind the Doc collection from down south. He bought every copy of ASM found at his local newsstand. And yet, he missed every issue of ASM labeled "Spectacular Spider-Man", which was every third issue. Those issues were found elsewhere but a pattern has emerged where Marvel appeared to be rotating distribution every three months. Why is anyone's guess but they appear to have done it. 

The ratio of printed copies is interesting but irrelevant to market availability. There were millions of Action #1's printed but I don't expect to find boxes of them in a forgotten warehouse. The ratio of printed copies is relevant to any attempt to understand why newsstands are so scarce. However, I think the destruction rate is more relevant. If 90% of the 1983 run of X-Men 177 was destroyed in 1983, a 5:1 ratio would quickly become 1:2, which is we see in today's market for 80's newsstands. That is a net change of 1000%. On that basis, the destruction rate is more important than print run. However, in combination with print run, it is easy to see why modern newsstands are so rare.

I quit drinking coffee when I was 6 btw.

Edited January 30, 2022 by paqart

[october]

Anyone have a sense of the relative rarity and/or print run on this one? I picked it up recently, but not much of a newsstand enthusiast. 

 

[onlyweaknesskryptonite]

On 1/29/2022 at 11:05 PM, october said:

Anyone have a sense of the relative rarity and/or print run on this one? I picked it up recently, but not much of a newsstand enthusiast. 

 

I believe they covered this one specifically a few pages back and believe it goes for more than the Variant. 

Congratulations..

[october]

On 1/29/2022 at 11:06 PM, onlyweaknesskryptonite said:

I believe they covered this one specifically a few pages back and believe it goes for more than the Variant. 

Congratulations..

Thanks. I'll go back and look. 

[onlyweaknesskryptonite]

On 1/24/2022 at 4:39 PM, valiantman said:

One of the most interesting factors in collectibles that is consistent no matter what market we're discussing (comics, cards, toys, posters, etc.) is that MANY of the valuable items had a period of time (years, if not decades) where they had little or no "extra" value.

Golden Age comics are valuable today almost exclusively because the majority of people threw them away the majority of the time, and for the surviving issues, the idea of high grade condition sensitivity was yet to enter the market.

Our best surviving copies of most of these types of collectibles only exist because someone ignored (or never heard) the wisdom of the crowd that the things were worthless.

It is amazing to me how many times a collectible becomes valuable and the comments are something like, "I had one (or lots) of those! I threw it away!" or "we hated those things... reprints! Ugh!" (such as Man of Steel #18 4th or 5th printings)

The newsstand market fits well with this trend, there was a period of time (years, if not decades) when they had little or no "extra" value.  In the age of everyone assuming everything is going to be valuable someday, the newsstand system died due to lack of success.  

Ultimate Fallout #4 Newsstand may be the "banner child" for this phenomenon in the 21st century, and it will almost surely continue to happen with other overlooked comic books... but it is happening despite the comic publisher's attempt to force collectible value on something else.  How many of the 1:10, 1:25, 1:50, or 1:100 retailer incentive variants that the publishers INTENDED to have premium value are essentially worthless today? 

The Franklin Mint tried to convince everyone that every limited edition anything they made would be a future treasure, but they always compared their items to collectibles that spent years as "nothing special", not items that were created for the sole purpose of "manufacturing premiums".

They tried to force something from day one that only happens naturally after decades and periods of time when the items are "worthless" or "no big deal".

Yes, there will always be value in Ultimate Fallout #4 1:25 variant, that's what it was created to be from the day it was released. Because Ultimate Fallout #4 matters as a regular direct edition, it will matter as the publisher's intentional premium variant... but the fact that every copy of Ultimate Fallout #4 Newsstand (from the failing newsstand system in 2011) with a recorded sale has been a higher price than the same grade of the UF #4 variant at the time, to me, is simply amazing.

 

On 1/24/2022 at 9:47 PM, valiantman said:

Exactly.  Even a beater copy of Ultimate Fallout #4 Newsstand would now sell for $1,000+.  There are none available in any grade.  They exist, but the ratio to direct editions is ridiculously low.

 

On 1/24/2022 at 10:15 PM, valiantman said:

On 1/24/2022 at 4:39 PM, valiantman said:

Yes, there will always be value in Ultimate Fallout #4 1:25 variant, that's what it was created to be from the day it was released. Because Ultimate Fallout #4 matters as a regular direct edition, it will matter as the publisher's intentional premium variant... but the fact that every copy of Ultimate Fallout #4 Newsstand (from the failing newsstand system in 2011) with a recorded sale has been a higher price than the same grade of the UF #4 variant at the time, to me, is simply amazing.

 

On 1/25/2022 at 7:07 AM, valiantman said:

I was prepared to add the data point for how many more Ultimate Fallout #4 Newsstands can be accounted to the public knowledge. You acted like you don't believe the ratios and had evidence. It now sounds like you want to be recorded as a zero. Don't worry, data doesn't get embarrassed.

 

On 1/29/2022 at 11:07 PM, october said:

Thanks. I'll go back and look. 

Ok roughly starts page 6 or 8 cant remember and sure I didn't get it all , but here are some of the quotes I pulled out. 

[onlyweaknesskryptonite]

On 1/29/2022 at 11:05 PM, october said:

Anyone have a sense of the relative rarity and/or print run on this one? I picked it up recently, but not much of a newsstand enthusiast. 

 

Also a quick snapshot of GPA( taken just now)..

 

[october]

Thanks again. I saw the prices on GPA, but was wondering how long this book has been "on the radar" and how rare it is compared to the regular edition. Sounds like no definitive answer, but probably safe to assume less than 10% of the regular print run. 

[onlyweaknesskryptonite]

On 1/29/2022 at 11:27 PM, october said:

Thanks again. I saw the prices on GPA, but was wondering how long this book has been "on the radar" and how rare it is compared to the regular edition. Sounds like no definitive answer, but probably safe to assume less than 10% of the regular print run. 

You are welcome.  I think they were back and forth between 10-20 but you really just do not see them as much. Even with the price increase, you would think more would show up. They haven't.  Plus with the recent speculation on Miles possibly appearing in the next Spider-man it definitely sounds like there is even more upside to this one. 

Congratulations again!

[divad]

I'm glad I left this cluster____ of a thread last week. 

[ADAMANTIUM]

On 1/29/2022 at 11:05 PM, october said:

Anyone have a sense of the relative rarity and/or print run on this one? I picked it up recently, but not much of a newsstand enthusiast. 

 

I'll trade you my unpressed 9.0, if your interested.

That is one tough book, (you should keep it  )

[paqart]

On 1/30/2022 at 12:27 AM, october said:

Thanks again. I saw the prices on GPA, but was wondering how long this book has been "on the radar" and how rare it is compared to the regular edition. Sounds like no definitive answer, but probably safe to assume less than 10% of the regular print run. 

24 high grade copies sold by Heritage Auctions. None are newsstands. 300 direct first editions on eBay, 13 variant editions (US only, didn't count Italian or French). ZERO newsstand editions. That would be a ratio of 1:337 if there had been one newsstand but there wasn't. As it is, the ratio today is less than 1:337, regardless of print run.

Edited January 30, 2022 by paqart

[october]

On 1/30/2022 at 7:40 AM, ADAMANTIUM said:

I'll trade you my unpressed 9.0, if your interested.

That is one tough book, (you should keep it  )

I'm going to hang onto it. Miles will join the MCU at some point, and chances are they will do him right. 

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 1/30/2022 at 12:05 AM, october said:

Anyone have a sense of the relative rarity and/or print run on this one? I picked it up recently, but not much of a newsstand enthusiast. 

 

[FlyingDonut]

On 1/30/2022 at 8:46 AM, paqart said:

24 high grade copies sold by Heritage Auctions. None are newsstands. 300 direct first editions on eBay, 13 variant editions (US only, didn't count Italian or French). ZERO newsstand editions. That would be a ratio of 1:337 if there had been one newsstand but there wasn't. As it is, the ratio today is less than 1:337, regardless of print run.

No it isn't.

That is the ratio of currently available copies.

It is not the ratio of newsstands to printed copies. NO ONE KNOWS THAT RATIO and to conflate the two is simply wrong.

Is a newsstand copy of Ultimate Fallout 4 rare and hard to find? Yes, absolutely. Is the roughly 4-5x value the marketplace putting on a newsstand copy realistic? Sure - and @octoberI would definitely hold on to that book as I think you're sitting on a $10K book at minimum when Miles is introduced into the marketplace. I'm actively searching and will pay a premium for a newsstand copy. I know where several are but that seller is doing what Andy is doing and holding out for top dollar. I think a newsstand copy of UF4 will - in the long run - prove to be a tremendous buy as there's significantly more demand than supply.

That being said do not tell me that Marvel only printed 270 newsstand copies (that's 1:337 of the 91,500 print run of UF4) of a mainstream Marvel major crossover title printed. That is simply a fallacy.

[paqart]

On 1/30/2022 at 11:45 AM, FlyingDonut said:

That being said do not tell me that Marvel only printed 270 newsstand copies (that's 1:337 of the 91,500 print run of UF4) of a mainstream Marvel major crossover title printed. That is simply a fallacy.

I'm getting a little tired of this. You've given us this message ad nauseum. Also, I haven't anywhere said that the number of copies in the marketplace resembles, or is, the print run. That is what is called a "straw man". I don't call you on it usually because there are so many other things to debate in your posts but I'm a bit fed up with this one because I haven't done it.

The quick and easy proof of this is that eighties newsstands were printed in much higher numbers than directs but show up less often in the marketplace. If print run was all that mattered, everyone would have a box of Walt Disney Comics & Stories #32 in their basement. I know you think the world beyond your front door is occupied entirely by dumbbells but please give us credit for the few things we get right.

I just re-read my post to see how you could have misunderstood it. I think I figured it out after approximately eight seconds. The key is this sentence, which you either did not read in its entirety, or you did not understand: "As it is, the ratio today is less than 1:337, regardless of print run." What do you think "regardless of print run" means? It does not mean, "this is the print run" or, "this is an estimate of the print run". It means, "this is what was observed in the marketplace, regardless of print run." It is a qualifier designed to distinguish the print run from marketplace observations. For instance, "Marketplace availability, based on today's observations, is less than 1:337. The implication for print run estimates is unknown but it does imply either a higher than normal destruction rate for this popular issue, or a significantly lower number of newsstand copies printed relative to both newsstands and all variants."

Mr. Donut, if you would do a little checking before you respond, you may find that you can stop an embarrassing mistake before it happens. Not that you'd notice.

Edited January 30, 2022 by paqart