paqart Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 8:30 AM, valiantman said: Are there 100+ sales somewhere else to add to the 170 paqart found on eBay? More data is good. Where is it? For the record, I like eBay for this type of research because other online sources are more difficult to navigate, have fewer sales, and are less reliable. For instance, HiPComic has more advertisers that post stock images than eBay. I don't know why but it is a far more common practice there. Heritage auctions is a great resource for older and more valuable comics but for most items worth less than a few hundred dollars, they are likely to be buried in a group or not listed. MyComicShop doesn't have the quantity to compete with eBay. LoneStarComics and others are the same. On top of all that, search tools and ease of use make it possible to get through 100 listings on eBay more quickly than other sites, thus limiting the risk that new items are listed during the search process. Microchip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paqart Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 2:38 AM, divad said: What offends me, is that you take two paragraphs to say nothing. Must be quite a book. Your comment makes more sense coming from a non-native English speaker, or a lemon peel floating down the Thames. divad and valiantman 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimjum12 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 (edited) On 1/24/2022 at 10:24 PM, paqart said: I do know it is for the last 60-90 days. How is that meaningless? It means 170 copies were sold in that time period, 4 of which were newsstand editions. That is a sufficient sample size in days and copies sold to determine that NA#27 is not as common as 1:10. There were about 130,000 copies of this comic ordered according to Comichron in the initial month of orders. For that population size, to have about 90% confidence with a 5% margin of error, you'd need a sample size of 271. However, if we assume that newsstand editions are an additional 10% (13,000 copies), then the population size is 143,000. For calculations like this, there is no practical difference between 50,000 and 1,000,000 units. Meaning, the sample size needed for anything in that range for a 90% confidence interval and 5% margin of error is between about 265-275 170 copies is adequate for 80% confidence and a 5% margin of error. This is one of the limitations of the marketplace that must be taken into account when attempting to estimate rarity ratios. In this case, the numbers don't fit a 1:10 or 1:20 ratio. If looked at as availability on any given day, the ratio goes down to 1:15 if it was listed once every 15 days over 60 days but the more important factor is how long it took to sell these copies. If they were all sold within an hour, then each of those days would have to be multiplied by 24 to come up with actual market availability. You don't have one chance a day if none of them remained available for a full day. I recall missing two copies of Hulk #1 that way. I got an alert on my phone that a copy went up for sale, logged in to buy it, but it sold before the transaction was completed. Total time elapsed, about 15 minutes. In that case, you'd have to divide the hours by four, so the formula for market availability would look like this: 4*24*60 or 4*24*90. That range would be 1:5760-1:8640, assuming they appeared as often in that window as NA27. I just checked sold items for Hulk (2008) #1. There were 121 copies offered for sale. None were newsstand editions. The direct print run was similar to NA27, about 130k, so its confidence level is 80% with a 6% margin of error with a sample size of 121. It isn't enough to establish that it is more common than non-existent but it is enough to establish that it is less common than 1:121 with 80% confidence and a 6% margin of error. I should mention that this finding is quite different from a year ago, when I could usually find one or two copies in any 60-90 day "sold" window. Finding zero copies as the price goes up indicates to me that these are simultaneously more desirable and less available. I'm not sure that CGC even notates "newstand" in every instance. I use GPA a lot and seem to find that entire runs of titles have no reference to "newstand" editions. I'm starting to think that a submitter may need to point it out on the submission form. In order to actually have this discussion, we need to determine if isolating "newstand" editions is procedural for CGC or not. and if so, when did this begin? We need to fill in as many blanks as possible before we can comfortably extrapolate. These are not actually for comics, but a link below gives estimated sales figures for HEAVY METAL magazine from the beginning until 2012. The drop in the last couple years is profound. GOD BLESS.... -jimbo(a friend of jesus) HEAVY METAL CIRCULATION FIGURES Edited January 25, 2022 by jimjum12 paqart and zosocane 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valiantman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 (edited) On 1/25/2022 at 9:36 AM, jimjum12 said: I'm not sure that CGC even notates "newstand" in every instance. I use GPA a lot and seem to find that entire runs of titles have no reference to "newstand" editions. I'm starting to think that a submitter may need to point it out on the submission form. In order to actually have this discussion, we need to determine if isolating "newstand" editions is procedural for CGC or not. and if so, when did this begin? We need to fill in as many blanks as possible before we can comfortably extrapolate. CGC does not identify "newsstand" in many instances at all. The data that has been presented by myself and @paqart is from visual inspection and compilation of data over time (years, if not more than a decade). GPAnalysis has chosen to identify additional newsstand books beyond what CGC does identify (most often, a different cover price newsstand). Amazing Spider-Man #300 and Ultimate Fallout #4 are examples where CGC does not identify newsstand but GPAnalysis does for the past couple of years. That data is also included. Those blanks you'd like us to fill in are filled in... but I recognize you haven't read 12 pages of posts. Edited January 25, 2022 by valiantman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paqart Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 10:45 AM, valiantman said: CGC does not identify "newsstand" in many instances at all. The data that has been presented by myself and @paqart is from visual inspection and compilation of data of time. GPAnalysis has chosen to identify additional newsstand books beyond what CGC does identify (most often, a different cover price newsstand). Amazing Spider-Man #300 and Ultimate Fallout #4 are examples where CGC does not identify newsstand but GPAnalysis does. Those blanks you'd like us to fill in are filled in... but I recognize you haven't read 12 pages of posts. GoCollect breaks out about 600 newsstands but most are older, more common issues. The moderns tend to be random (or so it seems). The number of sales they record are typically much less than can be found trawling eBay. jimjum12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimjum12 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 10:45 AM, valiantman said: CGC does not identify "newsstand" in many instances at all. The data that has been presented by myself and @paqart is from visual inspection and compilation of data of time. GPAnalysis has chosen to identify additional newsstand books beyond what CGC does identify (most often, a different cover price newsstand). Amazing Spider-Man #300 and Ultimate Fallout #4 are examples where CGC does not identify newsstand but GPAnalysis does. Those blanks you'd like us to fill in are filled in... but I recognize you haven't read 12 pages of posts. Exactly. It's not my area, yet I find it interesting and was trying to help (... though I'm not from the Government ) ... once enough blanks have been filled in, you may find less disagreement, since we're talking about something that may begin to become more and more objective. GOD BLESS.... -jimbo(a friend of jesus) paqart 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valiantman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 (edited) On 1/25/2022 at 9:52 AM, jimjum12 said: Exactly. It's not my area, yet I find it interesting and was trying to help (... though I'm not from the Government ) ... once enough blanks have been filled in, you may find less disagreement, since we're talking about something that may begin to become more and more objective. GOD BLESS.... -jimbo(a friend of jesus) Oddly enough, when the readers don't like the answers from more objective analysis, that additional data actually makes the disagreement increase. People like to quote "lies, damn lies, and statistics." Rejecting statistics in favor of lies (or damn lies) is not what the quote means. Verifying the statistics is the best of the three choices. Just believing it all on faith or using only one's personal experiences might be someone's preference, but it doesn't work for convincing others. Edited January 25, 2022 by valiantman jimjum12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paqart Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 10:59 AM, valiantman said: Oddly enough, when the readers don't like the answers from more objective analysis, that additional data actually makes the disagreement increase. People like to quote "lies, damn lies, and statistics." Rejecting statistics in favor of lies (or damn lies) is not what the quote means. Verifying the statistics is the best of the three choices. Just believing it all on faith or using only one's personal experiences might be someone's preference, but it doesn't work for convincing others. Exactly. This is why my buying habits changed as I came to understand newsstand availability better through research and direct interaction. The first thing I did was create a database (see attached image for a sample page). The database compares a number of factors. They include: ComiChron estimated orders, estimated NS print run, market availability on Heritage Auction (for high grade/expensive items) and eBay (for lower grade or less expensive items), price indexes fromOverstreet, Heritage, GoCollect, and Mile High (because they distinguish between NS and direct). It has fields for special interest items such as artist, writer, storyline, introductions of new characters, etc. The example page I've attached here is for X-Men #171, the issue when Rogue joins the X-Men. Based on ComiChron's estimated orders and a calculated estimate of newsstands based on that and estimates from industry sources, there were four times as many NS editions printed than direct editions. Despite that, it is slightly less common than direct editions in lower grades (below 9.0) with a 1:1.41 ratio on eBay, and slightly over twice as common as that in higher grade, with a 1:3.67 ratio at Heritage. This comic was published in 1983, leaving almost 40 years for newsstand editions to be disgorged. They probably have been. What do we see? they are less common than surviving directs, which represented only about 20% of the total estimated orders. I was going to write more but I have to go out. More later. Brock and Microchip 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paqart Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 2:36 PM, PiggyTTV said: He's not wrong. Not sure if "he" is Divad or me in your comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoWitHurts Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 1:36 AM, divad said: They don't sell newsstands at comic book stores. Oy. This is not accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Microchip Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/26/2022 at 7:51 AM, paqart said: More later. Please continue.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paqart Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 7:16 AM, Microchip said: Please continue.. Sorry, I just got a -script I have to draw (from comics legend Chuck Dixon). I'm hoping to say more on newsstand rarity later today after I've done some layouts. Microchip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fastballspecial Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 7:28 AM, Lazyboy said: On 1/24/2022 at 11:03 PM, paqart said: The bottom line is that what Valiantman has reported matches what I have seen as well. Because you're both basically just looking at feeBay. feeBay is not the market, and it sure as hell isn't the world. Sure where do you suggest the data comes from? Look I am more then happy to admit its not perfect. But until someone suggest a better way rather then tearing down the current method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paqart Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 11:39 AM, fastballspecial said: Sure where do you suggest the data comes from? Look I am more then happy to admit its not perfect. But until someone suggest a better way rather then tearing down the current method. I should add that I have looked at other auction sites but they don't have as much relevant data as eBay. Heritage Auctions, for instance, is great if you are only interested in expensive high grade older comics. If you want modern newsstands with volatile values, they just don't have very many to look at. They do have newsstands, usually in high grade but most are from the 1980's. They aren't very helpful trying to figure out what is going on post 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lazyboy Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 10:39 AM, fastballspecial said: Sure where do you suggest the data comes from? Look I am more then happy to admit its not perfect. But until someone suggest a better way rather then tearing down the current method. There exists no data that tells us what they want to know and pretend they can extrapolate from something that is only very superficially related. You call it the "current method" as if it is legitimate in any way, but it's not. MetalPSI and RockMyAmadeus 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalPSI Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Long 12 pages to say, I don't know Lazyboy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valiantman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 1:55 PM, Lazyboy said: You call it the "current method" as if it is legitimate in any way, but it's not. Reviewing GPA sales of Spawn #1 (primarily from eBay) shows 11.5% are newsstand. Comichron.com shows Spawn #1 had 1,700,000 copies sold, and 200,000 of those were newsstand. https://www.comichron.com/monthlycomicssales/1992.html 200,000 out of 1,700,000 is 11.8%. We can absolutely use GPA and eBay sales as our best source of data, until a better one comes along. Don't like it? The data doesn't care. Microchip and paqart 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Get Marwood & I Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 ygogolak and Juno Beach 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lazyboy Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 2:52 PM, valiantman said: We can absolutely use GPA and eBay sales as our best source of data, until a better one comes along. Best doesn't necessarily mean good, just better than things that are even worse. One single high-profile, 30-year-old issue roughly aligning based on GPA data means basically nothing. RockMyAmadeus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Microchip Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 8:27 AM, Lazyboy said: On 1/29/2022 at 7:52 AM, valiantman said: We can absolutely use GPA and eBay sales as our best source of data, until a better one comes along. Best doesn't necessarily mean good, just better than things that are even worse. One single high-profile, 30-year-old issue roughly aligning based on GPA data means basically nothing. And your incessant mindset to find fault with everything proves nothing as well. It's only getting increasingly tired to read over, and over again. djzombi and RockMyAmadeus 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
