2022 GOLDEN AGE COMIC BOOK MARKET REPORT 8 8

[mlansdown]

On 1/5/2022 at 8:42 AM, Robot Man said:

Sadly, it seems that majority of buyers I sell to seem to be more of flippers and short time “investment” rather than true collectors.

Many flippers seem to care more about the rush of a quick flip rather than the books themselves.

I have always been a collector first and a seller of books that don’t interest me to fund my collection.

Nothing wrong with either approach I guess. Just seems a little sad that the love of the medium has taken a bit of a back seat to the lure of quick cash. 

I don't understand this "selling" concept that everyone keeps talking about.  Explain to me how that works?

[KCOComics]

On 1/7/2022 at 12:43 AM, mlansdown said:

I don't understand this "selling" concept that everyone keeps talking about.  Explain to me how that works?

I only learned about it when I realized I couldn't afford other books I wanted without doing it. 

 

[gino2paulus2]

I know i’ve said this many times but i’m not quite sure the, “only buy high grade for investment purposes” holds any weight anymore as we have well over 10 years of data now and book and after book repeats the same pattern. If you had the same money you would have made more buying multiple lower grade copies than one high grade copy aside from maybe the highest grade example on rare occasions and even then you never know when someone will CPR etc. The stats are there to back it up on many and most sought after books.

Take AF 15 for example which trades hands enough to gather data. Over 10 years an 8.5 has went up about 600%. A 3.5 about 750%. and a 2.0 1000%!! basically if you would have bought 3 (2.0)s your net gain would have been significantly higher than had you bought 1 8.5.

Lets use the higher graded often traded book and try Hulk 181 on for size. If in 2010 you had bought a 9.8 you would be looking at a 320% increase today (not bad heck i take it!!) However in that same time frame 5.0s have increased a whopping 1,150%!! WOWZA!! Probably Should have taken than 20K and bought 40 copies in 5.0!! You would have done MUCH better investment wise.

Not satisfied with these common Silver and bronze examples let’s  try THE BIG ONE!! With a recent record setting sale of Action 1 in an 8.5 less than a year ago we can see another sale back in 2010. It would have been a nice return as you would have netted 117% increase. Again…not bad…not great either; at least compared to lower graded examples!! Had you taken that Same 1.5Mil back in 2010 and bought Five 3.0s that sold for around 300K you would have done FAR better as they have soared an earth shattering 460% in value!! 

I rest my case. Don’t count out the lower to mid grade copies of our hobby. As many have said the buyer pool is much higher AND let’s face it the numbers simply don’t lie.

Edited January 7, 2022 by gino2paulus2

[buttock]

On 1/6/2022 at 10:43 PM, mlansdown said:

I don't understand this "selling" concept that everyone keeps talking about.  Explain to me how that works?

I'll show you next time we get together. 

[Robot Man]

On 1/7/2022 at 7:32 AM, gino2paulus2 said:

I know i’ve said this many times but i’m not quite sure the, “only buy high grade for investment purposes” holds any weight anymore as we have well over 10 years of data now and book and after book repeats the same pattern. If you had the same money you would have made more buying multiple lower grade copies than one high grade copy aside from maybe the highest grade example on rare occasions and even then you never know when someone will CPR etc. The stats are there to back it up on many and most sought after books.

Take AF 15 for example which trades hands enough to gather data. Over 10 years an 8.5 has went up about 600%. A 3.5 about 750%. and a 2.0 1000%!! basically if you would have bought 3 (2.0)s your net gain would have been significantly higher than had you bought 1 8.5.

Lets use the higher graded often traded book and try Hulk 181 on for size. If in 2010 you had bought a 9.8 you would be looking at a 320% increase today (not bad heck i take it!!) However in that same time frame 5.0s have increased a whopping 1,150%!! WOWZA!! Probably Should have taken than 20K and bought 40 copies in 5.0!! You would have done MUCH better investment wise.

Not satisfied with these common Silver and bronze examples let’s  try THE BIG ONE!! With a recent record setting sale of Action 1 in an 8.5 less than a year ago we can see another sale back in 2010. It would have been a nice return as you would have netted 117% increase. Again…not bad…not great either; at least compared to lower graded examples!! Had you taken that Same 1.5Mil back in 2010 and bought Five 3.0s that sold for around 300K you would have done FAR better as they have soared an earth shattering 460% in value!! 

I rest my case. Don’t count out the lower to mid grade copies of our hobby. As many have said the buyer pool is much higher AND let’s face it the numbers simply don’t lie.

Well said and documented. 

[buttock]

On 1/7/2022 at 8:32 AM, gino2paulus2 said:

I know i’ve said this many times but i’m not quite sure the, “only buy high grade for investment purposes” holds any weight anymore as we have well over 10 years of data now and book and after book repeats the same pattern. If you had the same money you would have made more buying multiple lower grade copies than one high grade copy aside from maybe the highest grade example on rare occasions and even then you never know when someone will CPR etc. The stats are there to back it up on many and most sought after books.

Take AF 15 for example which trades hands enough to gather data. Over 10 years an 8.5 has went up about 600%. A 3.5 about 750%. and a 2.0 1000%!! basically if you would have bought 3 (2.0)s your net gain would have been significantly higher than had you bought 1 8.5.

Lets use the higher graded often traded book and try Hulk 181 on for size. If in 2010 you had bought a 9.8 you would be looking at a 320% increase today (not bad heck i take it!!) However in that same time frame 5.0s have increased a whopping 1,150%!! WOWZA!! Probably Should have taken than 20K and bought 40 copies in 5.0!! You would have done MUCH better investment wise.

Not satisfied with these common Silver and bronze examples let’s  try THE BIG ONE!! With a recent record setting sale of Action 1 in an 8.5 less than a year ago we can see another sale back in 2010. It would have been a nice return as you would have netted 117% increase. Again…not bad…not great either; at least compared to lower graded examples!! Had you taken that Same 1.5Mil back in 2010 and bought Five 3.0s that sold for around 300K you would have done FAR better as they have soared an earth shattering 460% in value!! 

I rest my case. Don’t count out the lower to mid grade copies of our hobby. As many have said the buyer pool is much higher AND let’s face it the numbers simply don’t lie.

There hasn't been an AF15 in 8.5 at auction since 2017 and the Action 1 in 8.5 is probably worth 50-100% more than what it sold for with the recent runups.  You could just as easily cite the recent 9.0 Hulk 1 at $490K which is roughly an equivalent multiple compared to 10 years ago as a 2.0.  In a bull market everything sells and grows.  When that market contracts the higher grade stuff is more likely to hold both its value and liquidity due to supply:demand ratio.  We can find exceptions to justify any claim, but as a general rule you'll be better off in the long term with premium quality books.  

[Aman619]

Yes.  Powerful argument with data to back up what we suspected.  However, the main reason we gravitated to hg was based on the supply side .  The Lower grade copies have soared due to unanticipated DEMAND for any copy.  I don’t think any of us back in the day saw this coming.  We hoped comics could reach this point, but felt safer going for best and scarcer copies.  Oops. 

[aardvark88]

On 1/7/2022 at 8:48 AM, Aman619 said:

 the main reason we gravitated to hg was based on the supply side .  The Lower grade copies have soared due to unanticipated DEMAND for any copy.

Trickle down effect to lower grade keys in 2021:

 

[Funnybooks]

On 1/7/2022 at 4:15 PM, aardvark88 said:

Trickle down effect to lower grade keys in 2021:

 

[tth2]

On 1/7/2022 at 11:32 PM, gino2paulus2 said:

I know i’ve said this many times but i’m not quite sure the, “only buy high grade for investment purposes” holds any weight anymore as we have well over 10 years of data now and book and after book repeats the same pattern. If you had the same money you would have made more buying multiple lower grade copies than one high grade copy aside from maybe the highest grade example on rare occasions and even then you never know when someone will CPR etc. The stats are there to back it up on many and most sought after books.

The downside of buying low grade books is you end up owning a lot of crappy looking books. 

Also, you have to work so much harder.  If I sell one AF 15 in 9.6, I only need to list, pack and ship one book to get $3.6m.  How many AF 15s in 2.0 would I have to list, pack and ship to reach $3.6m? 

[gino2paulus2]

On 1/7/2022 at 11:44 AM, buttock said:

There hasn't been an AF15 in 8.5 at auction since 2017 and the Action 1 in 8.5 is probably worth 50-100% more than what it sold for with the recent runups.  You could just as easily cite the recent 9.0 Hulk 1 at $490K which is roughly an equivalent multiple compared to 10 years ago as a 2.0.  In a bull market everything sells and grows.  When that market contracts the higher grade stuff is more likely to hold both its value and liquidity due to supply:demand ratio.  We can find exceptions to justify any claim, but as a general rule you'll be better off in the long term with premium quality books.  

As a general rule over the past 10 years you can see either the equivalent or MORE in many cases of percentage increase in value of the more obtainable copies period. I feel like every year i make a similar comment somewhere and get the same response of the bull market and how long term premium books will grow better and I am the only person bringing actual data to prove it’s not necessarily true in fact in most cases it’s not true. Just because we think should be and it makes sense in our heads doesn’t make it true. The data is there time and again and i’m not cherry picking i’ve done it on so many books but didn’t want to bog it down too much. 

GPA has a recorded AF 15 in 8.5 selling in Sept of 2021 i’m not sure if it was an auction or not but it was close to $707K (i’m not sure how many of us here are buyers at 707K for any 1 book that aren’t investments and i work very very hard but i’m out 😂)

the Bottom line is i’m not an investor or am in this to invest in comics and many here in Gold section are the same we are here for the love of the books. Even most dealers that participate here are big time comic lovers which is why this site has always been amazing. My collection could be worth zero dollars tomorrow and while it would be mildly upsetting it was a risk i was willing to take bc i was only putting in money I could afford to lose. I chase stuff no one may care about in 20 years and I know that but because I enjoy them so much  they could be worth nothing and still be worth something to me.

I gave my 2 cents here with data bc year after after year we see the same similar market reports that, “investing in premium high grade books” are a slam dunk long term. I’m not here to say that isn’t true just that it is misleading. Again, just because some PREFER high grade books doesn’t always mean they are a better investment. 

…and As many have said before me buy what you love and can afford to lose in this hobby and the reward will be worth so much more than the monetary gain. But if your buying power only gives you access to lower to mid graded copies don’t let the investment aspect deter you from pulling the trigger bc data proves you may have done pretty well had you not waited out for the higher graded copy.  

Edited January 8, 2022 by gino2paulus2

[tth2]

Based on what people are saying here, we should be seeing serious compression between low grade prices and high grade prices.  But I'm not seeing that at all.  If anything, the multiples for 9.4 or higher books compared to lower grade books seem to be higher than ever.  And for 9.8?  The sky's the limit. 

[gino2paulus2]

On 1/7/2022 at 9:48 PM, tth2 said:

The downside of buying low grade books is you end up owning a lot of crappy looking books. 

Also, you have to work so much harder.  If I sell one AF 15 in 9.6, I only need to list, pack and ship one book to get $3.6m.  How many AF 15s in 2.0 would I have to list, pack and ship to reach $3.6m? 

this is the kind of post i was hoping for!! Let’s play numbers 🤗 We will for example use that 9.6 that sold for a whopping 3.6 mil. We have the luxury of seeing in 2011 it sold for 1.1 mil. That’s a great return at about 227%. Let’s now use a 4.0 using GPA sold for for high 75K and in 2010 high was $5676. That’s a staggering 1240% increase!! So if you had taken that 1.1 mil you could have bought 196 copies BUT your overall return instead of 3.6 mil would have been $14,700,000!!! I think I would be willing to pack up 196 books for $11,000,000 wouldn’t you?!! That’s a lot of bubble wrap but it’s certainly not for peanuts (packing or not 🤣🙌) 

Again thinking realistically no one is going to find 196 copies of AF15 in 4.0 unless you’re an auction house who has 2 every week BUT the point is still made that investing in either ends of the pool have turned out pretty great. Just like a real pool, pond, lake, or ocean however the shallower waters seem to be getting affected by that beautifully warm sunshine even more than the deep cold often unseen depths of the highest grades!

Edited January 8, 2022 by gino2paulus2

[Cat-Man_America]

On 1/8/2022 at 1:05 AM, tth2 said:

Based on what people are saying here, we should be seeing serious compression between low grade prices and high grade prices.  But I'm not seeing that at all.  If anything, the multiples for 9.4 or higher books compared to lower grade books seem to be higher than ever.  And for 9.8?  The sky's the limit. 

This is what I'm seeing as well.  I'm just hoping Chicken Little doesn't make an appearance after some of these stratospherically high grade copies are reassessed!

[GermanFan]

On 1/8/2022 at 4:56 AM, szav said:

Thankfully there are enough AF 15s in 9.6 and other similar caliber books that everyone has a reasonably good chance of finding one and flipping it for great profit...

For the common man like myself...when it comes to finding books to sell/flip in order to have enough money to buy other better books (or for those just looking at this for pure investment purposes)...in GA I've done best by far finding underpriced low to mid grade books purchased in the $50-$200 range.   I'm not sure it's been everyone else's experience, but mine has been that you're much much more likely to find an underpriced low grade book than you are to find an underpriced high grade one.  So whether you're looking to flip instantly or hold it for a few years then sell, low/mid grade is the way to go.

It's uhhhhh possible my time isn't as valuable as other people's though, so for those who can afford the risk maybe high grade monster flips/investments are better?  All depends on your pay grade I guess.

50 -200 $ per book is my comfort zone too. Sometimes higher. But 1k was highest so far. I mostly never paid fmv. Finding deals is the thrill. Everybody can buy at full market price. I bought an Archie 50 in around vg for 1 $. A CSS the beheading cvr in gvg for 20 $. Thats the where the fun is.

Besides that, I dont trust the "higher and higher" narrative. At all.

Edited January 8, 2022 by GermanFan

[D84]

The more people talk about the market going higher and higher, the more I see an over-inflated market.

[Yellow Kid]

I think I suggested this when I first joined the board, but anyone interested in investing in comics, or anything for that matter, should begin by reading Charles Mackay's great book,

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.

[Robot Man]

On 1/8/2022 at 5:23 AM, GermanFan said:

50 -200 $ per book is my comfort zone too. Sometimes higher. But 1k was highest so far. I mostly never paid fmv. Finding deals is the thrill. Everybody can buy at full market price. I bought an Archie 50 in around vg for 1 $. A CSS the beheading cvr in gvg for 20 $. Thats the where the fun is.

Besides that, I dont trust the "higher and higher" narrative. At all.

It is ALL about the “thrill of the hunt” for me. Spend what you can afford and are comfortable with. Keep it fun and enjoy the journey! 

[50YrsCollctngCmcs]

On 1/8/2022 at 9:02 AM, Robot Man said:

It is ALL about the “thrill of the hunt” for me. Spend what you can afford and are comfortable with. Keep it fun and enjoy the journey! 

Exactly and yesterday I just got in my two first purchases of the year; a really sweet early Disney BLB and a pretty Police comics both for great prices right here on the boards. Buy what you love! Don't chase the money; we have the stock market for that.

[Robot Man]

On 1/8/2022 at 8:19 AM, Yellow Kid said:

I think I suggested this when I first joined the board, but anyone interested in investing in comics, or anything for that matter, should begin by reading Charles Mackay's great book,

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.

And if you want a fun read, grab this. Amazing stories of great finds and the very secretative and most obsessive group of collectors in most any hobby. These people are unreal.