2022 GOLDEN AGE COMIC BOOK MARKET REPORT 8 8

[lou_fine]

On 5/11/2022 at 11:03 AM, Mmehdy said:

But CGC used the best marketing tool ever, they ran an add for a price comparison of like hulk" #181 and said it was like 10x price for the same book in a plastic holder.....yea...and every collector/dealer went for the greed and bought it hook, line and sinker, it got to the point  early on  that just being in the holder added value to the most common book.

 Flash forward to 2022....speculators, persons who are looking to place excess money now find that the CGC graded book is safe Million Dollar plus investment. Not a bad thing, it never would have gotten to that price level but for CGC. So. my hat is off to CGC and the hedge fund investor.

Yes, I clearly remember those side by side ads that CGC used to run for prices on raw copies versus prices on CGC slabbed copies.  

Obviously some comic book hedge fund investor must have really bought into it because I still remember Overstreet showing a picture of a copy of DC's Shadow 1 in one of their price updates at the time when CGC first started up and it sold for what I thought was a rather super ridiculous $2,500 at the time.  Not 100% sure, but if I remember correctly, it might even have only been for a CGC 9.6 graded copy since there were no 9.8 graded copies at the time.  Definitely remember the $2,500 price point thopugh as I throught it was either totally nutso or a big time boo boo typo on Overstreet's part.     

Flash forward to 2022 and there are now over 150 copies of the book in CGC 9.8 graded condition with close to another 250 copies knocking on the door in CGC 9.6 graded condition, with GoCollect placing an estimated market value of only $140 for a CGC 9.6 graded copy now.  

Edited May 12, 2022 by lou_fine

[lou_fine]

On 5/11/2022 at 4:47 PM, Bronty said:

The change comes when you start selling some things.    You ship some stuff off.   Discover you don’t miss it and don’t even really remember what you sent.    It gets easier to send a second batch.   A third.    Pretty soon you’re associating your collection with the checks.

 

There's a simple solution to this dilemma which you are facing, but definitely too late for you though....................DON'T START SELLING!!!   

[Cat-Man_America]

On 5/11/2022 at 11:36 PM, lou_fine said:

Yes, I clearly remember those side by side ads that CGC used to run for prices on raw copies versus prices on CGC slabbed copies.  

Obviously some comic book hedge fund investor must have really bought into it because I still remember Overstreet showing a picture of a copy of DC's Shadow 1 in one of their price updates at the time when CGC first started up and it sold for what I thought was a rather super ridiculous $2,500 at the time.  Not 100% sure, but if I remember correctly, it might even have only been for a CGC 9.6 graded copy since there were no 9.8 graded copies at the time.  Definitely remember the $2,500 price point thopugh as I throught it was either totally nutso or a big time boo boo typo on Overstreet's part.     

Flash forward to 2022 and there are now over 150 copies of the book in CGC 9.8 graded condition with close to another 250 copies knocking on the door in CGC 9.6 graded condition, with GoCollect placing an estimated market value of only $140 for a CGC 9.6 graded copy now.  

 

Marketing is everything (or nearly everything), especially in a start-up's promotion.  CGC's advertising was probably geared towards convincing speculators to send in fairly common books that miraculously increased in value creating a piranha-like "feeing" frenzy of submissions.  

I'm not knocking it as a business strategy; it's smart and works best when applied to relatively familiar books.  Logically, rarer books of any era are more likely to increase in value over time, but business-wise, it's more important to have a constant stream of speculation books coming through the door bringing in revenue.  

One of the reasons I think original art (B&W and color) has become so popular is guaranteed uniqueness insures value stability. Also the fact that grading ...outside of what's provided by the auction house as part of it's listing... becomes unnecessary.  Whereas DC's The Shadow #1 in grade is a mere shadow of it's former value, GA Shadow Comics, pulps and OA are still rising commodities speculation-wise.    

Spoiler

Spoiler

 

Edited May 12, 2022 by Cat-Man_America

[Bronty]

On 5/12/2022 at 1:38 AM, lou_fine said:

There's a simple solution to this dilemma which you are facing, but definitely too late for you though....................DON'T START SELLING!!!   

Oh sure.   You're absolutely correct.    But there is a price at which almost anyone will do it. 

Pick a comic you really like that you paid $100 for.    If someone offers you $100,000 twenty years after your purchase, are you going to say no?   Its easier said than done.    Most people can't hang on once the numbers are exponential.   

 

[fifties]

Interesting thread, thx for starting it, Mitch.  Our hobby has taken a few turns over the last 20+ years, first with the advent of the internet, then with CGC, and lastly with generally slabbed books looked upon as investments, to be bought cheap and sold dear, by investors.

I have several thousand mostly pre code horror and crime books, but the only time I part with any of them now, is when I can upgrade.  I bought them primarily for their entertainment value in reading.  Retired and not needing $, there's no reason to sell any.  I still have a few holes to plug, but I refuse to spend an obscene amount, and have resorted to buying a few replicas to satisfy, for the time being.

Just my thoughts, as an old time collector.

[tth2]

On 5/13/2022 at 2:17 AM, Bronty said:

Oh sure.   You're absolutely correct.    But there is a price at which almost anyone will do it. 

Pick a comic you really like that you paid $100 for.    If someone offers you $100,000 twenty years after your purchase, are you going to say no?   Its easier said than done.    Most people can't hang on once the numbers are exponential.   

 

Dean would continue to hold on, because he couldn't bear the thought that it might go for $125,000 the next year. 

Edited May 12, 2022 by tth2

[Crowzilla]

On 5/12/2022 at 2:17 PM, Bronty said:

Oh sure.   You're absolutely correct.    But there is a price at which almost anyone will do it. 

Pick a comic you really like that you paid $100 for.    If someone offers you $100,000 twenty years after your purchase, are you going to say no?   Its easier said than done.    Most people can't hang on once the numbers are exponential.   

 

The Dentist is the exception to every rule.

[lou_fine]

On 5/12/2022 at 11:17 AM, Bronty said:

Pick a comic you really like that you paid $100 for.    If someone offers you $100,000 twenty years after your purchase, are you going to say no?   Its easier said than done.    Most people can't hang on once the numbers are exponential.   

 

On 5/12/2022 at 3:55 PM, tth2 said:

Dean would continue to hold on, because he couldn't bear the thought that it might go for $125,000 the next year. 

Oh, come on now, Tim.............you are giving me far more credit than I deserve as I am nowhere even close to the $100K or $125K finish line.  

I am still stuck in the starting blocks where I just can't bear the thought of paying exponential multiples more to slab the book as compared to what I had to pay for the actual darned thing in the first place.  Especially if I have to double that exponential cost in order to play the game by CGC's shifting rules.    

[tth2]

On 5/13/2022 at 1:04 PM, lou_fine said:

 

I am still stuck in the starting blocks where I just can't bear the thought of paying exponential multiples more to slab the book as compared to what I had to pay for the actual darned thing in the first place.  Especially if I have to double that exponential cost in order to play the game by CGC's shifting rules.    

Sell it raw. 

[tth2]

On 5/13/2022 at 1:04 PM, lou_fine said:

Especially if I have to double that exponential cost in order to play the game by CGC's shifting rules.

Do the pressing services charge on a percentage of FMV like CGC does?

[tth2]

On 5/13/2022 at 7:48 AM, Crowzilla said:

The Dentist is the exception to every rule.

I think he's actually held back the development of the market.

Is there any other collectible where the crown jewel of the hobby was sold very early on in the life of the hobby and never traded hands again? 

Edited May 13, 2022 by tth2

[adamstrange]

On 5/13/2022 at 3:50 PM, tth2 said:

I think he's actually held back the development of the market.

 

Proving, yet again, the uselessness of the FTC, the SEC and the FDA.

[comicnoir]

On 5/13/2022 at 3:47 PM, tth2 said:

Do the pressing services charge on a percentage of FMV like CGC does?

Yes

[lou_fine]

On 5/13/2022 at 12:45 PM, tth2 said:

Sell it raw. 

Oh, you mean take the Heritage Sunday auction approach where all of those low grade raw pre-hero Adventure/New Adventure and More Fun books seemingly sold for big dollars and at much much higher multiples to condition guide as oposed to those graded and slabbed copies of the same books that sold in their higher profile Signature Auction a month later.  

[lou_fine]

On 5/13/2022 at 12:47 PM, tth2 said:

On 5/12/2022 at 10:04 PM, lou_fine said:

Especially if I have to double that exponential cost in order to play the game by CGC's shifting rules.

Do the pressing services charge on a percentage of FMV like CGC does?

Yes, I believe it's the same percentage of FMV that CCS charges for their pressing disservice as CGC charges for their grading fees.   

I am sending mine's in as soon as they start charging based upon a percentage of original cost of the book.  

Now, let's see.....................what's a percentage of a nickel for a low grade beater hopefully Good condition copy of X-Men 1.  

 

[Crowzilla]

On 5/13/2022 at 3:50 PM, tth2 said:

I think he's actually held back the development of the market.

Is there any other collectible where the crown jewel of the hobby was sold very early on in the life of the hobby and never traded hands again? 

I meant as applies to buying the crown jewels and never letting go even though it would be hundreds of multiples now.

But yes, Movie Posters might have the same problem of being held back - they certainly haven't doubled and tripled the last two years (at least we don't think so, as the major ones haven't come back up for auction). Fishler has had the only known Frankenstein 6-sheet for about 30 years now (which most would say is the most valuable movie poster), and he's held what was the only known A-Style Dracula one sheet for a similar time frame until a second copy was discovered five years ago. It's been about 20 years since an original King Kong one sheet was offered for public auction.

[AnkurJ]

On 5/9/2022 at 7:19 PM, Bronty said:

It really does show that collecting is more about the journey than the destination because if the ride stops, the interest in the material wanes.     Once the journey's over, the destination isn't as interesting as you thought this whole time.

 

 

Agree completely. This is for life as well as collecting! 

[tth2]

On 5/14/2022 at 4:22 PM, Crowzilla said:

On 5/14/2022 at 3:50 AM, tth2 said:

I think he's actually held back the development of the market.

Is there any other collectible where the crown jewel of the hobby was sold very early on in the life of the hobby and never traded hands again? 

I meant as applies to buying the crown jewels and never letting go even though it would be hundreds of multiples now.

I know.  I was just using your comment to riff about something that has been discussed a bit here recently, which is that our hobby is a bit unique in that most of the bluest chip books haven't changed hands in decades (Dentist's books and Verzyl's Timelys) and yet the hobby has become worth hundreds of millions in spite of this.

On 5/14/2022 at 4:22 PM, Crowzilla said:

But yes, Movie Posters might have the same problem of being held back - they certainly haven't doubled and tripled the last two years (at least we don't think so, as the major ones haven't come back up for auction). Fishler has had the only known Frankenstein 6-sheet for about 30 years now (which most would say is the most valuable movie poster), and he's held what was the only known A-Style Dracula one sheet for a similar time frame until a second copy was discovered five years ago. It's been about 20 years since an original King Kong one sheet was offered for public auction.

Interesting, and good to know.  Of course owners of items are entitled to do whatever they want, but collectibles markets need turnover of headline grabbing items to (i) set benchmarks that other collectors will then be able to base off and (ii) attract attention.

[tabcom]

From a macroeconomics view at the moment: first companies report tighter margins, later comes with layoffs.

[Mmehdy]

On 5/18/2022 at 6:23 AM, tabcom said:

From a macroeconomics view at the moment: first companies report tighter margins, later comes with layoffs.

What is troubling recently was an article in the daliymali.com yesterday which was entitled "Ex-Fed Reserve Chair says US economy is heading toward period of stagflation for the first time since the 1970's: CEO of Goldman Sachs says risk of American falling into recession "is very very high". 

 These are not some "Youtubing" wanta get views doomsayers, which Youtube videos seem  to be on a roll for both real estate and stocks, as well as bonds in their  cross sights. When these guys above  talk you had better listen like E.F Hutton(please see classic commercial re 1970's 80's)

 

 Just as similar to the real estate market, the "iffy" books will feel the price squeeze first, like the questionable properties which are on a busy street and a somewhat dangerous area. 

My prediction is books low graded, restored, tapped, rusty staple, brittle pages or low page quality are gonna take an immediate hit from current prices, especially if you bought them recently. The great stuff, pedigree, etc will be last and feel it for the shortest period as they will be the first to recover.

 Given the sudden mood of the economy coupled with a constant   daily increase in home and consumer lines of credit interest rates. I would consign or sell any quesitonable conditioned book, especially if you have purchased it at current elevated prices levels of 2021 and early 2022. You can then trade up if sell a few to a much better  top by a single higher graded book which would be less likely to decrease 50% or greater with the coming downturn. I would say the best is advice is buy Quality over Quantity and ride it out over the next 2 years.

Edited May 18, 2022 by Mmehdy