Is inflation and a potential recession changing your collecting habits? 4 4

[comicginger1789]

Yes

More so the fact though that people are still asking 2021 prices. I am sorry, maybe last year I would pay $15-20 for a high grade run filler book but right now, I can't and also do not want to. $5-10, sure. I also see people listing a lot of common stuff I have. And right now, I am happy to wait as prices come down before I jump on anything major. Typically, y buying does tend to slow around this time anyway (April to July) before it picks back up end of summer and into the fall.

[comicginger1789]

And in regards to "weekly hot books", I never chased them anyways. Nor did I try to sell anything when a book was hot (although it was always nice to see books I already have get a bump in value). These bumps though are getting less and less, if at all. I also used last year to acquire some books I thought had good "grade and sell for profit" potential. I spent around $2800 all in on 13 books (cost to acquire, grade, clean, press, ship, etc). I am still waiting on 5 of them and currenly have made $2300 on the others. I anticipate making close to $1000 (even with the drops in value) off the ones remaining which puts me in the green for my investments for the year, although perhaps not as green had I gotten the books back sooner (and done this experiment in 2020 versus last year).

Either way, I am unlikely to try investing in some books unless they are bona fide desired books that have stood the test of time. A couple I took gambles with like Avengers 46, Jungle Action 6 and Thor 166 I should still make out okay on because of the small price invested and the fact that some of the grades should be quite high.

[Henry and Aaron's Comics]

On 6/13/2022 at 2:11 PM, ammar_ammar said:

With the cost of everything increasing and stocks (especially tech) going down substantially, how are you modifying your comic book investing? 

On the bright side comics will be cheaper, maybe.....

[Robot Man]

On 6/15/2022 at 2:21 PM, Buzzetta said:

That was something a stopped a long time ago.  It was something that a few people have noticed.  Even local toy shops have opted to see their better stuff online rather than their own stores.   Many people are not putting anything but garbage out at a garage sale or a flea market and are opting to become sellers themselves.   Our local flea markets are held at train stations and you really have to dig through and then dig another ten feet under to find something that is worth considering buying. 

So... I felt that my time was better spent making money to buy what I wanted rather than riding around aimlessly for days and weekends at a time looking at stuff I would never consider buying.  When it comes to 'new' stuff I just order directly from the company or retailer online rather than hope to find something "out in the wild."

Especially when it comes to new stuff. Let the people that want to do that all day go about their business and do it.  I will happily pay a 10% markup or buy it off Amazon during preorder opportunities for the hours I save myself and then I go about my day. 

We have very large flea markets every weekend. Lots of stuff can turn up. I look for lots of things not just comics. But, yeah, the quality of stuff offered has hit an all time low. Lots more competition as well. But, like anything, the more you go the better your odds. If nothing else, I get a lot of excercise…

[Robot Man]

On 6/15/2022 at 2:38 PM, Dr. Balls said:

1: Yes, I am not a gun hobbyist by any means, but I spent most of last year buying ammo when I could find it because society has shown me that at the drop of a hat, everyone can lose their collective minds and go insane - recession or maybe because the sky is blue today.

2. Yes, .22 ammo which is like, $7 a box of 50 was selling for $20-$30 if you could find someone to sell it to you. If you think comic collectors are fanatical about finding a stash of comics in an attic, I'd like to introduce you to some guys who want to buy .223 ammo. Groups of retired guys 5-6 people deep meet for breakfast, then they all wait at the sporting goods stores for when they open, they all individually walk in to each different store in a coordinated effort to locate ammo. Whomever finds the store with the ammo (which they limit one box per person), the guy texts the other men in the group, and they rush over to the store. Repeat every single day.

I remember during shutdown when only essential services were open, gun shops were apparently considered “essential”.  I went into buy some 9mm rounds. There was a line of guys down the street because they were limiting. Scared me a little. These guys wern’t hunting for food or protecting their families. The thought of guys like this riding the streets was a little scary. We are living in scary times…

[Gonzimodo]

Short answer - no.

Longer answer - I'm more of a run collector and am really looking for only a handful of more expensive books at this point.  (My collection is mostly Bronze Age to present.  I was pretty much priced out of the older stuff from day one.)  I haven't been very active in seeking out the cheaper holes in my collection for a while, though, which was probably a mistake since $.50-$1.00 books all now appear to be $5-$10 books.    I wasn't prioritizing buying them when they were almost free, though, so I have even less interest in buying them at these higher prices.    I still keep my list handy when going to a different store or convention, but I'm not going to panic-buy overpriced "drek" that I'll probably never get around to reading, anyway.

[Lord Gemini]

On 6/14/2022 at 3:25 PM, Beastfeast said:

Dumb question: Are you ammo dudes expecting society to collapse and you have to use the ammo to kill people trying to take your food and shelter?  Because of a recession?  

Another dumb question: Does ammo have a decent secondary market?  Like, are you guys buying ammo just in case but also able to sell it to make a profit?  

Not a dumb question. It's a dumb practice.

[Courageous Cat]

On 6/16/2022 at 11:33 AM, Robot Man said:

I remember during shutdown when only essential services were open, gun shops were apparently considered “essential”.  I went into buy some 9mm rounds. There was a line of guys down the street because they were limiting. Scared me a little. These guys wern’t hunting for food or protecting their families. The thought of guys like this riding the streets was a little scary. We are living in scary times…

unfortunately I think the worst is to come. Stock up on food, lead and essentials ....oh, and funny books

[Dr. Balls]

On 6/15/2022 at 8:19 PM, aardvark88 said:

Buy, buy, buy during the comic book dip in 2022 but it also depends on your current age and how long u are going to live.

My guess (and it's a guess for sure) is that we've reached the peak of maximum exponential gain - and there may be a dip, or a slow accrual of value (depending on what you are collecting). Unfortunately, I'm coming in at this time (and paying the premium prices), but my collecting goals are long term (at least 10 years) before I decide on letting go or hanging on for a little longer. I have no one to leave my collection to, so it's just a matter of time when it gets sold. I'm going to have fun, put out some money in books and not worry too much about whether I experience gains or losses for some time.

[nDemik]

I’m heavily invested in the market and there is zero upside or positive sentiments moving forward and idea of stimulus given out by the govt (Political moves - actually caring about the people 🤷‍♂️) could be an outlet for market to pump back up but that would cause hyperinflation. 
I’m a complete noob in the comic world and still pondering if this is the correct time to add the key issues or should I wait for the ball to drop and possibly see these comics down the road 10-15% cheaper or possibly more? 
 

Appreciate any insights from veteran collectors. 

[Courageous Cat]

On 6/18/2022 at 1:01 PM, nDemik said:

I’m heavily invested in the market and there is zero upside or positive sentiments moving forward and idea of stimulus given out by the govt (Political moves - actually caring about the people 🤷‍♂️) could be an outlet for market to pump back up but that would cause hyperinflation. 
I’m a complete noob in the comic world and still pondering if this is the correct time to add the key issues or should I wait for the ball to drop and possibly see these comics down the road 10-15% cheaper or possibly more? 
 

Appreciate any insights from veteran collectors. 

me personally? I'd hold off on expensive heavy keys until this economic crapstorm passes. I'm still buying books but at a much more conservative level. 

[KirbyTown]

On 6/18/2022 at 12:01 PM, nDemik said:

Appreciate any insights from veteran collectors.

I don't know if it's insight, but I can offer some basic information and bias... 😜

 

While I have no idea how to judge total demand for collectible back-issues, nor how to count the number of fools and greater fools involved in the current comic book bubble, I'm confident that the supply of collectible issues available on the secondary market is higher than ever and that the glut will continue to grow.

 

Consider that CGC has slabbed nearly 8 million comics. Over the past 12 months they slabbed 1.5 million comics. Every year, they slab about 1,200 copies of the most popular single issue in existence. The other company has their own lower quantities, but they're not insignificant. 

Slabbing at the slowest rate currently takes a little over half a year. If you assume that a good chunk of slabs will make it to market, that's a huge number of books constantly entering CGC, disappearing for six months, then exiting to market every day (with daily market arrivals guaranteed to continue at least six months out from the latest customer's submission.) The other company has a similar turnaround time. If you add pressing, the slowest CGC press + grade takes over a year and at the other place it takes TWO years.

Consider now that the historically popular comic book titles were printed in the hundreds of thousands of copies, sometimes a million, PER ISSUE. There are around 250,000 (I think...) individual comic issues in existence, each with their own print run.

This means that only a sliver of extant comic books have been slabbed, and countless numbers of raw collections have never seen the light of day, let alone made it to the secondary market. The current interest in buying collections for flipping is unprecedented and the amount of money being spent on collections full of utter garbage is high. So too are the percentages of fair market value that reputable dealers have become willing to bid at in their battles with other dealers over desirable collections (nobody is going to beat out Lone Star at this point.)

There has always been healthy demand for certain key issues regardless of the market climate, but the current pricing is not normal (especially based on the increased number of circulating copies) nor is the sudden surge in pricing normal.

 

Bubbles show identical traits regardless of what's being traded and this comic bubble has all of the hallmarks. It's not exactly crypto-level of bubble bs since there is probably intrinsic value of some kind in collectibles, but the back issue market is certainly getting swept up in the exuberant breeze. Supply is growing, but the regular (non-speculative) demand is not nearly as high as it's being made by speculators to seem. Whether you want to play in the current game of greater fools depends on your risk tolerance and your reason for buying comics in the first place.

Best of luck!

Edited June 19, 2022 by KirbyTown

[Courageous Cat]

On 6/19/2022 at 1:53 AM, KirbyTown said:

Whether you want to play in the current game of greater fools

 

[MetalPSI]

Heavily invested noob

 

[GermanFan]

On 6/19/2022 at 7:53 AM, KirbyTown said:

I don't know if it's insight, but I can offer some basic information and bias... 😜

 

While I have no idea how to judge total demand for collectible back-issues, nor how to count the number of fools and greater fools involved in the current comic book bubble, I'm confident that the supply of collectible issues available on the secondary market is higher than ever and that the glut will continue to grow.

 

Consider that CGC has slabbed nearly 8 million comics. Over the past 12 months they slabbed 1.5 million comics. Every year, they slab about 1,200 copies of the most popular single issue in existence. The other company has their own lower quantities, but they're not insignificant. 

Slabbing at the slowest rate currently takes a little over half a year. If you assume that a good chunk of slabs will make it to market, that's a huge number of books constantly entering CGC, disappearing for six months, then exiting to market every day (with daily market arrivals guaranteed to continue at least six months out from the latest customer's submission.) The other company has a similar turnaround time. If you add pressing, the slowest CGC press + grade takes over a year and at the other place it takes TWO years.

Consider now that the historically popular comic book titles were printed in the hundreds of thousands of copies, sometimes a million, PER ISSUE. There are around 250,000 (I think...) individual comic issues in existence, each with their own print run.

This means that only a sliver of extant comic books have been slabbed, and countless numbers of raw collections have never seen the light of day, let alone made it to the secondary market. The current interest in buying collections for flipping is unprecedented and the amount of money being spent on collections full of utter garbage is high. So too are the percentages of fair market value that reputable dealers have become willing to bid at in their battles with other dealers over desirable collections (nobody is going to beat out Lone Star at this point.)

There has always been healthy demand for certain key issues regardless of the market climate, but the current pricing is not normal (especially based on the increased number of circulating copies) nor is the sudden surge in pricing normal.

 

Bubbles show identical traits regardless of what's being traded and this comic bubble has all of the hallmarks. It's not exactly crypto-level of bubble bs since there is probably intrinsic value of some kind in collectibles, but the back issue market is certainly getting swept up in the exuberant breeze. Supply is growing, but the regular (non-speculative) demand is not nearly as high as it's being made by speculators to seem. Whether you want to play in the current game of greater fools depends on your risk tolerance and your reason for buying comics in the first place.

Best of luck!

Think about people paying serious money for jpegs, NFT art (there are voices that say its all about money laundering) or stocks of bankrupt companies (game stop, Kodak, rise to new highs), thanks to juvenile Robin Hood traders. Comics (collectibles) must also come down, when the insanity ends. And then everything goes down, even the "blue chip" stuff. When the night is darkest opportunities will rise for collectors with money. Remember the collapse of the new market in 2001. Everything went under water, Amazon etc. 

The past 20 - 30 years we lived under unprecedented circumstances: free protection from the US (for Europe), cheap commodities from Russia, cheap goods from Asia, Computerisation and Internet, and a demographic sweet spot with workers and consumers. This all ends now.

[Ken Aldred]

On 6/15/2022 at 11:39 AM, Buzzetta said:

The more I look toward the future the less I have a need for “stuff” so I guess it’s not just a reevaluation of cost to participate in the things I like but that issue combined with having enough and life moving on. 

I agree.  I'm at an age now where I simply can't do many of the things I involved myself with when I was younger, and even less demanding activities take too much of a physical and mental toll on me and require longer and longer recovery periods.  I'm writing this during one of those. So, the costs of involving myself with adrenaline-surging, hunting obsessions such as going to comic shops and conventions; physical, mental, temporal and financial, simply don't have any appeal anymore as factors to go up against and fight through as hard as possible.  And, I wish I'd understood that sooner, and involved myself less on the direct, social level. I struggle to go to a supermarket, and the last thing I should be concerned with is sacrificing something as comparatively trivial as comic books.

Edited June 19, 2022 by Ken Aldred

[ADAMANTIUM]

On 6/19/2022 at 12:34 AM, Courageous Cat said:

me personally? I'd hold off on expensive heavy keys until this economic crapstorm passes. I'm still buying books but at a much more conservative level. 

I like to think this is the ballpark I'm swinging in, tough to tell what's what though.

I like to think I've towed the line.

[Axe Elf]

On 6/19/2022 at 3:34 PM, ADAMANTIUM said:

I like to think I've towed the line.

Pet peeve alert!

Where are you towing it?

...or did you mean TOED the line, like a runner putting his toes as close to the line as possible without overstepping it?

[/pedantics]

Edited June 19, 2022 by Axe Elf

[ADAMANTIUM]

On 6/19/2022 at 3:40 PM, Axe Elf said:

Pet peeve alert!

Where are you towing it?

...or did you mean TOED the line, like a runner putting his toes as close to the line as possible without overstepping it?

 and here I :thought" that meant I was keeping it straight, in one lane and in a straight line of vehicles 

to each his own  

Edited June 19, 2022 by ADAMANTIUM

[Axe Elf]

At least you haven't toad the wet sprocket...