Newsstand vs Direct: Clarity (and maybe less misinformation) Needed 5 5

[Lazyboy]

On 3/21/2023 at 6:05 PM, paqart said:

Those numbers may represent approximate NS/DE print run ratios even if they can't apply to every comic perfectly.

No, they are not even close. Well, okay, 1979-1986 might be pretty close.

But they aren't print run numbers, they're claimed to be distribution numbers. If they were supposed to be print run numbers, they would (somehow) be even further beyond absurd.

[paqart]

On 3/21/2023 at 7:13 PM, NP_Gresham said:

Again, there is a 3 pack from my collection that is not marked “Whitman” anywhere that is from 1977 cover dated books

How to ascribe that to Whitman?

It seems that these are indeed direct and to different distributors. 

I think what needs to be added is ‘direct to retailers/comic shops’ 

 

According to this, you're right, they are direct. However, as a collector, I do not think it is appropriate to describe the 3-packs as belonging to the same category of direct comics distributed through comic book shops. They weren't distributed that way but in venues more typical of newsstand distribution. Therefore, the pricing agreements were consistent with direct distribution but the venues they were distributed to are newsstand. Of the two, discount to retailers vs. retailer type, I think the retailer type has a stronger influence on survivability/rarity. Therefore, these comics behave more like newsstands than directs, and are found in quantities more consistent with newsstand distribution than direct.

[Lazyboy]

On 3/21/2023 at 5:45 PM, NP_Gresham said:

My understanding is they were returnable - thus the ‘remainder’ copies that show up on eBay with the cover torn off all the way or in part.

That's the other thing that some people try to avoid discussing in regards to this topic. There have always been copies around that were supposed to be destroyed after going unsold during their window. But post-Silver Age (basically), covers were rarely stripped, in whole or part. So it's impossible to distinguish between a copy that was sold to an individual at time of release and one that was sitting somewhere untouched - and possibly never even distributed to a retailer - for years, since it was released. It's also impossible to know just how many copies escaped their fate.

[paqart]

On 3/21/2023 at 7:30 PM, Lazyboy said:

No, they are not even close. Well, okay, 1979-1986 might be pretty close.

But they aren't print run numbers, they're claimed to be distribution numbers. If they were supposed to be print run numbers, they would (somehow) be even further beyond absurd.

The distributors can't distribute more than are printed, so on that level they are related. To the extent that different distributors ordered differently, the larger distributor's orders would have been fairly proportionate to the smaller distributors. Meaning, again, there is a relationship.

The more salient issue is survivability and market availability. A true irony regarding the Shooter/MileHigh estimate is that anyone who has studied newsstand editions is aware that the estimated distribution does not resemble marketplace availability very well until the most recent newsstands, when print runs were very low. Meaning, even if the Shooter/Mile High numbers were exactly correct in every case regarding both distribution and print run, they would be irrelevant to availability and the population of surviving copies.

If the concern is that both print run and distribution are less important, even irrelevant, to availability, then complaints regarding "the chart" would make more sense. However, my understanding is that some posters here believe that, while not being able to estimate print runs and availability based on the chart, one also cannot estimate rarity or availability based on marketplace indicators. The reason is that any number of copies might be stored in an unknown warehouse. Therefore, no one should ever pay more for a newsstand than a direct because there is no way to be certain it is actually less common than direct counterparts.

That seems to be the argument. Am I right? Here it is again, in more concise form:

1) "Chuck's chart is bogus"

2)"You never know how many of these are stashed in a warehouse"

3) "there's no way to know how rare but they aren't as rare as anyone thinks"

Speaking for myself, my own efforts to quantify newsstand rarity have led me to a number of conclusions that seem to hold up fairly well in the real world. If I'd paid any heed to some of the posts here, I never would have tried, wouldn't have felt comfortable buying certain comics that turned out to be excellent investments, and wouldn't have learned a single thing about newsstands vs direct editions apart from the fact that they look different.

Overall, a few observations:

1) Certain newsstand editions are so rare that they qualify as no-seeums (less than 1:500). I wouldn't be surprised if many of these simply aren't worth enough to sell, so they are sitting around in closets. However, the key issue phenomenon (see below) makes me think this would only make a comic go from 1:500 scarcity to 1:75 scarcity (or so)

2) High-priced key issues are a good indicator of market availability of newsstands. This is because non-key issues are always much harder to find than the keys. Rule of thumb: if the key shows up 1:100 copies for sale, then non-keys from the same title won't show up more than once every year or two

3) High grade newsstands from 1979-1989 are just as hard to find as any grade of newsstand after 2005

4) Newsstand comics were treated as garbage, literally, by most (more than 75%) of the customers who bought them up until about 1989

5) Modern newsstand comics are harder to find than many Golden Age and Silver Age comics.

6) Newsstands are scarcest between about 2002-2009,

7) Newsstands are most common between 1990-1995 regardless of print run or distribution factors. The same is true of HG newsstands. I think this is because by this time period, there was a perfect balance been NS/DE print runs/distribution and collectors buying from both venues. Before this, the comics were treated less well by NS buyers and after this, the NS print runs declined dramatically.

8) The scarcest high grade newsstands are foreign editions (UK/CAN). On this subject, I haven't yet found any high grade UK newsstands but presume they exist. I have a few HG Canadians, though they are a minority of the CAN NS editions in my collection

 

 

 

[paqart]

Here are a few comics from my collection, as examples of relative rarity. The first is the UK edition of Avengers #100. It is one of five graded UK variants of this comic and is the highest grade (8.5) and only copy with this grade. The next highest grade is 7.0.  According to the census, there are 1,253 graded US copies of this comic. Of those, 135 are in 8.5. there are another 259 in grades between 9.0-9.8. Based on this, although this issue isn't that rare, it becomes significantly less common when you target the UK edition and then even rarer when you go for high grade. This high grade is relative to UK editions only because there are so many more in better grades from the US edition. Still, this is not a "common" comic.

The third image is an ungraded Hulk #102 (approximately 8.5-9.0). It's a popular comic but not that hard to find. If I wanted another, I could find one in the same condition any day of the week. The fourth image is Walt Disney's Vacation Parade #1, Canadian edition. It isn't super easy to find but if you want one, could probably find it in any given week. This particular week is good because I just found one now, in two minutes of looking.

The group of three modern comics, Cable, Hulk, and FF, all from 1999, are easily rarer than anything else in this post. These are all $2.49 newsstand price variants. If you started looking for these today, you might not find any of them after a year of assiduous looking. Or, you could get lucky. 

Of this group of comics, my favorite is the Vacation Parade, which contains one of the best stories Carl Barks ever wrote. Next, the Hulk and Avengers are about equal for me. The three scarce newsstand price variants are genuinely more difficult to acquire than the other comics but I have little interest in them beyond their rarity and in the case of the Hulk #8, the cover.

This is where newsstands get interesting. I don't have photos of all my comics, or I would have posted different examples of newsstands. Some of them, like the 2013 Deadpool #1 or 2013's Morbius #1, have fantastic covers. Those are both scarce and desirable. I'd be surprised to find any three modern newsstands, pre-selected before entering the New York Comic Con. There would be hundreds of hard to find issues but good luck finding three or more specific issues from a short list. I'm still looking for an NS Catwoman (2002) #1 or any of the three or so Darwyn Cooke Jonah Hex comics from around 2007. Now that I think of it, I do have a photo of the Morbius, so I'll add it.

Because of their rarity and desirability, I am happy to pay a premium for certain newsstand issues. The reason is that if I don't, I may not get another chance to buy. I'm still annoyed that I didn't pick up the only two Adam Hughes cover Catwomans I've ever seen for sale (both around $200/ea) or the first Gorr in Thor (about $600). The highest graded UK Avengers #100 isn't coming around every day but neither are the modern newsstands. The way I look at it, if I want them in my collection while I can still afford them, now is the time to buy.

Edited March 22, 2023 by paqart

[Lazyboy]

On 3/21/2023 at 9:20 PM, paqart said:

The distributors can't distribute more than are printed, so on that level they are related.

The Newsstand print numbers are factually orders of magnitude above Chuck's ludicrous numbers. Distribution, in this case, means copies sold to end users, not the process run by distributors.

On 3/21/2023 at 9:20 PM, paqart said:

However, my understanding is that some posters here believe that, while not being able to estimate print runs and availability based on the chart, one also cannot estimate rarity or availability based on marketplace indicators.

You can make some rough estimations based on the marketplace, but you have to look at as much of the marketplace (of which feeBay is only a tiny, though highly visible, part) as possible. I've seen more post-2000 Newsstands in person in the last few months than you claim your LCS has overall (of any era) and I didn't need to look at anywhere near 150,000 comics. Not to mention a ton of earlier Newsstands, including Canadian Newsstands.

On 3/21/2023 at 9:20 PM, paqart said:

4) Newsstand comics were treated as garbage, literally, by most (more than 75%) of the customers who bought them up until about 1989

1.

2. Prove it (I know you couldn't prove it even if it were true, but let's pretend for a second or two).

3. If I had $1 for every non-HG Copper Direct edition I've seen, I'd be rich. Attrition is reality. Copper comics have had decades to suffer damage and destruction.

[paqart]

On 3/21/2023 at 11:33 PM, Lazyboy said:

The Newsstand print numbers are factually orders of magnitude above Chuck's ludicrous numbers. Distribution, in this case, means copies sold to end users, not the process run by distributors.

You can make some rough estimations based on the marketplace, but you have to look at as much of the marketplace (of which feeBay is only a tiny, though highly visible, part) as possible. I've seen more post-2000 Newsstands in person in the last few months than you claim your LCS has overall (of any era) and I didn't need to look at anywhere near 150,000 comics. Not to mention a ton of earlier Newsstands, including Canadian Newsstands.

1.

2. Prove it (I know you couldn't prove it even if it were true, but let's pretend for a second or two).

3. If I had $1 for every non-HG Copper Direct edition I've seen, I'd be rich. Attrition is reality. Copper comics have had decades to suffer damage and destruction.

You prove it.

"NS print numbers...orders of magnitude above Chuck's ludicrous numbers". Are you talking about the percentages in that chart? There isn't enough room in that range for any number to be "orders of magnitude" higher than what it is now. For instance, if what you say is true, then Chuck's 4% direct figure is actually not 40% but 400% (you wrote "orders" not "order"). Still, it isn't an order of magnitude higher either. Or do you believe that in 1979, the split was 60% NS, 40% DE? 

You've said this about eBay before but I don't believe it is true. Not that I think you are dishonest. You probably believe (fiercely) what you wrote. However, as I have said before, eBay may be the best way to make a realistic sample of newsstand comics. The reason is that newsstand purchasers frequently aren't serious collectors. They are much more likely to put their comics on eBay than anywhere else. In my own experience, which is different from yours, I can't find as many quality newsstands in a day of looking at the New York Comic Con as I can find on eBay in a few hours. The same goes for comic shops.

This is even true when compared to flea markets. Some days, I can't find even one comic book. Sometimes, there will be a couple of people with some beat up comics sitting on a blanket. They are usually so trashed that it wouldn't matter if they were Golden Age rarities. Sometimes, not every time but maybe one in five flea markets, I'll find some comics that aren't destroyed. When I find these, they either aren't newsstands or they aren't good ones. One of my best flea market finds was a guy selling his personal collection of Bronze and Copper Age comics. Their newsstand status was irrelevant, though most pre-dated the direct era. The best newsstand find I ever made was a group of about 180 NM Marvel and DC newsstands, all cover dated 2013. That happened once, about three years ago.

I understand the logic of your argument about eBay, it just doesn't match any version of reality I'm familiar with. It may take a while to find what I want on eBay but outside of eBay, I don't know that I've ever found any comic on my want list. It isn't that I don't look, I do. I do find newsstands elsewhere but not in decent quantity or condition and never anything I have a strong interest in. Even that group of 180 NM newsstands aren't anything I collect (with two exceptions, Superior Spider-Man).

Bottom line, I'm well aware that you think I don't know what I'm talking about, you are superior in every way, are a better collector, etc. That's fine. Congratulations on the achievement. Still, you haven't persuaded me to your point of view. It isn't even clear whether you are trying to persuade anyone. The tenor of your posts indicates that you want people to agree with you because you insist on it. 

For fun, this image is of three of my favorite newsstand covers

Edited March 22, 2023 by paqart

[Lazyboy]

On 3/21/2023 at 11:44 PM, paqart said:

"NS print numbers...orders of magnitude above Chuck's ludicrous numbers". Are you talking about the percentages in that chart? There isn't enough room in that range for any number to be "orders of magnitude" higher than what it is now. For instance, if what you say is true, then Chuck's 4% direct figure is actually not 40% but 400% (you wrote "orders" not "order"). Still, it isn't an order of magnitude higher either.

So you don't like it when you think numbers are being exaggerated? Well, I guess that proves my point. Thanks!

Still, I guarantee that 50% in 2000, 20% in 2005, and 10% in 2013 for Newsstands are much, much, much closer to reality than Chuck's numbers.

On 3/21/2023 at 11:44 PM, paqart said:

You've said this about eBay before but I don't believe it is true. Not that I think you are dishonest. You probably believe (fiercely) what you wrote. However, as I have said before, eBay may be the best way to make a realistic sample of newsstand comics. The reason is that newsstand purchasers frequently aren't serious collectors. They are much more likely to put their comics on eBay than anywhere else. In my own experience, which is different from yours, I can't find as many quality newsstands in a day of looking at the New York Comic Con as I can find on eBay in a few hours. The same goes for comic shops.

This is even true when compared to flea markets. Some days, I can't find even one comic book. Sometimes, there will be a couple of people with some beat up comics sitting on a blanket. They are usually so trashed that it wouldn't matter if they were Golden Age rarities. Sometimes, not every time but maybe one in five flea markets, I'll find some comics that aren't destroyed. When I find these, they either aren't newsstands or they aren't good ones. One of my best flea market finds was a guy selling his personal collection of Bronze and Copper Age comics. Their newsstand status was irrelevant, though most pre-dated the direct era. The best newsstand find I ever made was a group of about 180 NM Marvel and DC newsstands, all cover dated 2013. That happened once, about three years ago.

I understand the logic of your argument about eBay, it just doesn't match any version of reality I'm familiar with. It may take a while to find what I want on eBay but outside of eBay, I don't know that I've ever found any comic on my want list. It isn't that I don't look, I do. I do find newsstands elsewhere but not in decent quantity or condition and never anything I have a strong interest in. Even that group of 180 NM newsstands aren't anything I collect (with two exceptions, Superior Spider-Man).

There is a difference between what you can easily find and buy while sitting on the couch in your underwear, what is available for purchase somewhere, and what exists but is not currently available. Easy and possible are different things. Also, what is available in the market changes constantly. These are simple facts.

I'm not sure why a collector Newsstand buyer who isn't serious would go to the trouble of selling a bunch of comics on feeBay when they decided to get rid of them. Or how they would have a collection to sell since they read their comics on the way out the door of the store where they purchased them and threw them away before they even got home... or so some people would have me believe.

On 3/21/2023 at 11:44 PM, paqart said:

Bottom line, I'm well aware that you think I don't know what I'm talking about, you are superior in every way, are a better collector, etc.

I'm not sure what would make a "better" collector. Collecting is an individual pursuit.

[CGC Mike]

This discussion is getting a little too spirited.  Sometimes, it's better to agree to disagree and walk away...

[CJ Design]

On 3/22/2023 at 6:40 AM, CGC Mike said:

This discussion is getting a little too spirited.  Sometimes, it's better to agree to disagree and walk away...

sage advice

[toro]

Only thing I remember was that ASM 252 sold out pretty quick at the LCS.  So back then there were grocery stores and magazine stores that carried comics.  You could find the ASM252s, but most were beat to heck.  So while they may not have been rare at that time, they were rare to find in high grade.

[ThothAmon]

For some reason newsstand discussion always start to swirl. Predated by years Mike becoming an Admin. People are entitled to their opinions but when CGC broke them out in the census the debate seemed settled to me. 

[Lazyboy]

On 3/22/2023 at 12:15 PM, ThothAmon said:

For some reason newsstand discussion always start to swirl. Predated by years Mike becoming an Admin. People are entitled to their opinions but when CGC broke them out in the census the debate seemed settled to me. 

 What do you think is the thrust of the debate? Also, last I saw, they still haven't properly executed that plan.

There are factually different versions of most issues from the past 4+ decades and there is no reason they should not be properly identified and differentiated. There was never any reason, despite CGC's lateness to the party on some versions. But that's very different than making up ridiculous numbers to cheat gullible fools out of their money.

[ThothAmon]

On 3/22/2023 at 2:13 PM, Lazyboy said:

making up ridiculous numbers

You say potato I say po ta to. The real votes are with consumers dollars and those fortunate enough to be selling copper and on newsstands which invariably sell  and, usually, for more when they pop up for sale. 

Edited March 22, 2023 by ThothAmon

[paqart]

On 3/22/2023 at 1:15 PM, ThothAmon said:

For some reason newsstand discussion always start to swirl. Predated by years Mike becoming an Admin. People are entitled to their opinions but when CGC broke them out in the census the debate seemed settled to me. 

The fact that CGC now pays attention to these is great. I love the fact they are in the census, though it doesn't help that previously graded newsstands aren't included.

The issue that always causes these conversations to "swirl" is, as far as I can tell, Chuck Rozanski and comments regarding quantification or rarity. We have some people who will not allow that subject to be discussed without frequent interruptions to say how untrustworthy "Chuck's chart" is. The problem with that position is that Chuck's chart is derived from Jim Shooter, who was in a position to know what Marvel was doing. In addition, Chuck himself played a role in the early years of the direct market and thus had a reason to discuss the subject with Shooter. Whatever errors might be contained in the estimates that went into the chart, I don't see a good reason to dismiss it entirely on the basis of arbitrary individual observations.

Related to Chuck's chart are observations made by Benjamin Nobel on his blog. As far as I can tell, they are more informative and accurate than any amount of protest regarding the content. All of this comes down to the difference between estimates and raw numbers, which are not available. The point of contention is that an estimate isn't accurate and can be disregarded. The opposing position is that an estimate can be used to make strategic decisions. For instance, in war, one can never know how an opponent will react to any given maneuver. Wars don't get called off for this reason. They go forward based on each sides' independent evaluation of the available data. It is the same with buying comic books, particularly if there is an investment agle.

For instance, collectors sometimes buy first appearance issues because the character will be featured in a film or TV series, like She-Hulk, Moon Knight, or Black Adam. Any conversation on that topic is speculative and necessarily involves gauging the fan response to the TV series or film. In other words, estimates. Surely that type of estimate is more prone to error than estimates regarding newsstand print runs, distribution, survival rates, and market availability.

It seems to me that CGC would encourage conversations like this because they inspire interest in the hobby. For my part, I can say that I started collecting after a 20 year hiatus because of Ben Nobel's blog. I then spent about $3k at CGC getting a stack of newsstand issues graded. This is money in CGC's pocket that can be credited to an informed discussion on the topic of newsstands that took place in a different forum. Meanwhile, on CGC, although similar conversations are started here, they often don't get very far because there is a frustratingly obdurate force that seeks to prevent this topic coming up for conversation. I'm mystified why this happens because the subject itself is innocuous.

In the end, it comes down to this: Modern newsstands were printed in smaller quantities than direct editions starting in the mid-1990's. By the 2000's, the ratio of newsstands to direct editions dramatically favored directs, making newsstands less common as an absolute measure of the number printed. If one looks beyond the print run to survival, the subject gets even more interesting. Looked at that way, it is very curious that comics from the first years of direct production still slightly favor directs despite a supposedly higher newsstand print run. In other words, directs are more likely to survive than newsstands, regardless of print run. This is seen in the marketplace, whether we are talking about comic shops, the CGC census, Heritage Auctions, eBay, garage sales, flea markets, and other venues. In every example, newsstands can be shown to be less common, significantly much less common, than directs. For this example, I do not include venues that only sell newsstands, such as Barnes and Noble or Books a Million.

There is an objection to including eBay in this list but where else can one quickly search for a specific title and issue with any hope of finding newsstand editions of that issue to derive a comparison count of directs to newsstands? Newsstands can be found anywhere but finding a sufficient quantity of a specific issue in any given location would be extremely unpredictable and unlikely to succeed. This I know from experience trying to find a methodology that allowed such a count. I have tried Heritage, HipComic, the CGC census, eBay, and ComicConnect to perform counts of that type. Of the group, eBay consistently provided the most statistically valid results. The problem with Heritage is that they tend to sell only the priciest comics, particularly moderns. For that reason, most issues either hadn't ever been sold by Heritage, they were sold as part of a lot, or they appear in quantities too small to derive any meaning. HipComic's problem is that one of their largest sellers at the time, NewKadia, didn't differentiate between newsstand and direct editions. Meaning, they would use a newsstand photo for a direct or vice versa. The CGC census didn't note newsstand status at the time I checked, and many of the issues of interest didn't appear in sufficient quantities for any kind of analysis. Individual comic book stores or conventions are worthless for this purpose because of the small number of newsstands and the labor required to find them. EBay, on the other hand, had sufficient quantities, had almost any issue you wanted to check, and usually labeled photos as stock if that was the case. ComicConnect, as I recall, didn't have a friendly interface and also suffered from smaller quantities  than eBay.

[valiantman]

On 3/22/2023 at 2:26 PM, paqart said:

Meanwhile, on CGC, although similar conversations are started here, they often don't get very far because there is a frustratingly obdurate force that seeks to prevent this topic coming up for conversation. I'm mystified why this happens because the subject itself is innocuous.

It has always been obvious to me.

Collectors who spent decades hand-selecting the highest grade direct editions at their local comic shop do NOT want people to decide that high grade newsstands are more valuable. Therefore, any evidence (no matter how solid) that newsstands are harder to find is immediately met with "we don't know what else is out there! Newsstands aren't rare!" and the translation is "stop pointing out how easy it is to find what I have and how hard it is to find what I don't have!"

In other words... sour grapes.

Edited March 22, 2023 by valiantman

[Lazyboy]

On 3/22/2023 at 1:38 PM, ThothAmon said:

You say potato I say po ta to. The real votes are with consumers dollars and those fortunate enough to be selling copper and on newsstands which invariably sell  and, usually, for more when they pop up for sale. 

So you support cheating gullible fools out of their money? Because the foolish belief in the ridiculous numbers spread by charlatans is the reason for the inflated prices. Those prices did not exist before the massive spread of misinformation.

[ThothAmon]

On 3/22/2023 at 3:36 PM, Lazyboy said:

So you support cheating gullible fools out of their money? Because the foolish belief in the ridiculous numbers spread by charlatans is the reason for the inflated prices. Those prices did not exist before the massive spread of misinformation.

Dude we collect comic books. Who am I to judge who’s a gullible fool?

[Lazyboy]

On 3/22/2023 at 2:34 PM, valiantman said:

It has always been obvious to me.

Collectors who spent decades hand-selecting the highest grade direct editions at their local comic shop do NOT want people to decide that high grade newsstands are more valuable. Therefore, any evidence (no matter how solid) that newsstands are harder to find is immediately met with "we don't know what else is out there! Newsstands aren't rare!" and the translation is "stop pointing out how easy it is to find what I have and how hard it is to find what I don't have!"

In other words... sour grapes.

That's hilarious, because I own relatively few comics purchased new from comic shops and about 15% of the comics that I bought off the racks are Newsstands. Also, as I've mentioned before, I have thousands of Newsstands that I acquired as back issues, including random junk like these:

So rare that I have more than one and it's not even a superultramegarare regular Newsstand, but an even rarer oddball error.

I'll gladly profit from selling Newsstands, I'm just not going to deceive people to do so.

[Get Marwood & I]

On 3/22/2023 at 7:55 PM, ThothAmon said:

Who am I to judge who’s a gullible fool?