Heritage Nov 16-19 Signature Auction 5 5

[tth2]

On 11/22/2023 at 5:27 AM, Bronty said:

Sure.   I think the real question is what was that splash worth at the end of 2019, and what is it worth now?   You have to throw the whole covid era out. 

On the other hand, some stuff is going for way more than it went for during Covid. 

Alex Raymond Flash Gordons, for example. 

[tth2]

A Sandman page with an image of a statue, a tree branch and a cat went for $10,800, so I think the market is plenty strong.

[tth2]

A Zeck MOKF splash page went for $9600.  I think that's pretty strong!

[cstojano]

On 11/21/2023 at 5:21 PM, mtlevy1 said:

Not per item - per batch

per batch, per category though. I am sure they bend the rules all the time for their best customers, but it makes one wonder how they get so many low value items in their auctions. 

[Michael Browning]

On 11/21/2023 at 10:21 PM, tth2 said:

Without knowing how realistic the estimates were, it's hard to judge whether your friends should really be disappointed or not.  Did they make a decent return on their original purchase price?

They have the right to be disappointed, no matter what they paid for the art. The estimates given were realistic, but the market is in a bit of a downturn, and I told them both that. I watch all the auctions and I see the trends. I won’t sell right now, unless I’d absolutely have to.

Collectors seem to be holding onto their cash. I do think that a lot of buyers paid way too much for art in the last couple years and are getting scared (rightfully so) that they won’t be able to get their money back. I’m pretty sure some of them saw certain artists’ pages and covers selling very high and paid higher prices as an investment who are now not able to get even close to break-even on those pages.

I’ve got several friends who have lost money on art they’ve consigned to Heritage and C-Link that should have done better, but didn’t.

You can point to pieces selling higher than you thought they would, but that happens in every auction. It doesn’t mean the market is still as hot as 2021.

For every piece you point to that sold high, I can show you 10 other pieces that sold much lower than they should have, if the market was still on the rise. I don’t think there’s a “Great Crash” happening like some of the grouchy old doomsday prophets who regularly post on these boards. But there is a bit of a cooling off or a plateauing of prices.

[Dirtcheap31]

Highest price ever realized for a Yvel Guichet Harley first continuity page at least publicly. https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/story-page/yvel-guichet-and-aaron-sowd-batman-harley-quinn-nn-story-page-16-original-art-dc-1999-/a/7342-95147.s?ic4=GalleryView-ShortDescription-071515

Seems like high end still holding up and the good stuff even rising… middle of the road stuff seems to be struggling 

[stormflora]

On 11/21/2023 at 11:30 PM, Michael Browning said:

They have the right to be disappointed, no matter what they paid for the art. The estimates given were realistic, but the market is in a bit of a downturn, and I told them both that. I watch all the auctions and I see the trends. I won’t sell right now, unless I’d absolutely have to.

Collectors seem to be holding onto their cash. I do think that a lot of buyers paid way too much for art in the last couple years and are getting scared (rightfully so) that they won’t be able to get their money back. I’m pretty sure some of them saw certain artists’ pages and covers selling very high and paid higher prices as an investment who are now not able to get even close to break-even on those pages.

I’ve got several friends who have lost money on art they’ve consigned to Heritage and C-Link that should have done better, but didn’t.

You can point to pieces selling higher than you thought they would, but that happens in every auction. It doesn’t mean the market is still as hot as 2021.

For every piece you point to that sold high, I can show you 10 other pieces that sold much lower than they should have, if the market was still on the rise. I don’t think there’s a “Great Crash” happening like some of the grouchy old doomsday prophets who regularly post on these boards. But there is a bit of a cooling off or a plateauing of prices.

Sounds exactly like what NFTs went through after the crypto crash and AI art boom. I think people are starting to realize that they are being too careless with overspeculation, and are biting their nails at the losses they're taking from them.

[mtlevy1]

On 11/21/2023 at 7:27 PM, tth2 said:

A Sandman page with an image of a statue, a tree branch and a cat went for $10,800, so I think the market is plenty strong.

Yeah but the cat is also in the tree branch panel!  I bid on this one...

Edited November 22, 2023 by mtlevy1
grammar

[KirbyCollector]

On 11/21/2023 at 11:30 PM, Michael Browning said:

I don’t think there’s a “Great Crash” happening like some of the grouchy old doomsday prophets who regularly post on these boards. But there is a bit of a cooling off or a plateauing of prices.

A year from now the stock market will be in severe distress and then we'll see what happens to collectibles. I was not buying OA after the 2000 dotcom crash, but I was buying after the 2008 crash and there were many OA bargains to be had. The crash in 2020 was a complete outlier b/c so many outlets for consumer spending were cut off that internet-available collectibles became of the direct beneficiaries of the idle cash. The coming stock market decline (and Gene can probably back me on this) in the spring/early summer 2024 will be significant but under "normal" economic conditions, so it may look more like 2008. Personally, I am preparing for something much worse and divesting myself of those collectibles I do not absolutely "love."

This is not meant as a warning; you have to do what you think is right, and what is appropriate for your financial situation. I hope OA retains its values, but a broad-based decline seems more likely.

Edited November 22, 2023 by KirbyCollector

[gumbydarnit]

On 11/22/2023 at 6:06 AM, KirbyCollector said:

A year from now the stock market will be in severe distress and then we'll see what happens to collectibles. I was not buying OA after the 2000 dotcom crash, but I was buying after the 2008 crash and there were many OA bargains to be had. The crash in 2020 was a complete outlier b/c so many outlets for consumer spending were cut off that internet-available collectibles became of the direct beneficiaries of the idle cash. The coming stock market decline (and Gene can probably back me on this) in the spring/early summer 2024 will be significant but under "normal" economic conditions, so it may look more like 2008. Personally, I am preparing for something much worse and divesting myself of those collectibles I do not absolutely "love."

This is not meant as a warning; you have to do what you think is right, and what is appropriate for your financial situation. I hope OA retains its values, but a broad-based decline seems more likely.

As with everything, it's all about timing and luck. It all feels like musical chairs, who will get caught holding that crazy high priced cover when or if the music stops.... who really knows?!?

The good thing is the enjoyment of looking at these little time caspsules, that capture a time in our lives and more importantly the artist's life. When he/she is doing the best that they can during their artistic journey. I still get giddy thinking I have these mementos! 

[Bronty]

On 11/21/2023 at 10:23 PM, tth2 said:

On the other hand, some stuff is going for way more than it went for during Covid. 

Alex Raymond Flash Gordons, for example. 

Yes, exactly, and so that’s the relevant metric I think.    The market has a lot of factors moving up and down within it comingled into results.    At the end of thr end of thr day, even if we take Covid volatility out of the equation as best we can there are still other trends effecting the marketplace.    For example on the comic book side I’ve noticed that LB Cole covers have been on fire and have stayed hot.   ECs have strongly trended up as well. 
 

Ie not everything has returned to 2019 levels because there have been some supply and demand changes. 

Edited November 22, 2023 by Bronty

[Rick2you2]

On 11/22/2023 at 7:06 AM, KirbyCollector said:

A year from now the stock market will be in severe distress and then we'll see what happens to collectibles. I was not buying OA after the 2000 dotcom crash, but I was buying after the 2008 crash and there were many OA bargains to be had. The crash in 2020 was a complete outlier b/c so many outlets for consumer spending were cut off that internet-available collectibles became of the direct beneficiaries of the idle cash. The coming stock market decline (and Gene can probably back me on this) in the spring/early summer 2024 will be significant but under "normal" economic conditions, so it may look more like 2008. Personally, I am preparing for something much worse and divesting myself of those collectibles I do not absolutely "love."

This is not meant as a warning; you have to do what you think is right, and what is appropriate for your financial situation. I hope OA retains its values, but a broad-based decline seems more likely.

I don’t see it. So long as profits are decent, employment is low, and the Federal government continues to engage in deficit spending, we should be okay unless there is a major war or consumer spending dries up (slowing down isn’t enough, it has to actually shrink). Money has to go somewhere, and the stock market is as good a place as any. So, I think you’ll see relatively stable times (maybe a market correction for a short period of time). 

[JC25427N]

On 11/22/2023 at 12:33 PM, Rick2you2 said:

I don’t see it. So long as profits are decent, employment is low, and the Federal government continues to engage in deficit spending, we should be okay unless there is a major war or consumer spending dries up (slowing down isn’t enough, it has to actually shrink). Money has to go somewhere, and the stock market is as good a place as any. So, I think you’ll see relatively stable times (maybe a market correction for a short period of time). 

Is the crash with us in the room right now?

[KirbyCollector]

On 11/22/2023 at 1:49 PM, JC25427N said:

Is the crash with us in the room right now?

Were you invested in the stock market in 2008 or 2020? Did you lose money? If you weren't in the market in 2008, did your home decline in value in the years afterward? I'm simply saying the party is ending next year, to be careful and to prepare financially. I had a friend who lost 50% of his 401k in 2008; I retired, while he has continued to work to make up for those losses. Saying "Everything is fine" doesn't help your account when a Lehman Bros capsizes the financial system -- and an event of that size is coming again.

Edited November 22, 2023 by KirbyCollector

[Rick2you2]

On 11/22/2023 at 3:54 PM, KirbyCollector said:

Were you invested in the stock market in 2008 or 2020? Did you lose money? If you weren't in the market in 2008, did your home decline in value in the years afterward? I'm simply saying the party is ending next year, to be careful and to prepare financially. I had a friend who lost 50% of his 401k in 2008; I retired, while he has continued to work to make up for those losses. Saying "Everything is fine" doesn't help your account when a Lehman Bros capsizes the financial system -- and an event of that size is coming again.

I did lose money in 2020, but it came back in about 12-18 months. So, I effectively lost 1-2 years worth of asset growth. Not tragic.

The economy always runs in boom/bust cycles; usually every 7 to 9 years there is a recession. But then, like in the old Fred Astaire/Ginger Rodgers song, it “picks itself up, dusts itself off and starts all over again.”

2008 and 2020 were exacerbated by special conditions. Same with an earlier recession involving the S&L debacle. Without anything special on the horizon, the worst case scenario should be a retrenchment not a collapse. Of course, if we find out something surprising, like all those medium sized banks are holding too many commercial real-estate mortgages, that’s a wholly different problem. 

In terms of comic art, I think the biggest long term issue is the aging out of people who collect from earlier eras, like the Silver Age. Much like semi-collectible pre-war cars, they live and die by their market age.

[MAR1979]

On 11/22/2023 at 6:06 PM, Rick2you2 said:

I did lose money in 2020, but it came back in about 12-18 months. So, I effectively lost 1-2 years worth of asset growth. Not tragic.

 

and not if you use the opportunity to invest heavily while prices are down.

[Rick2you2]

On 11/22/2023 at 6:30 PM, MAR1979 said:

and not if you use the opportunity to invest heavily while prices are down.

I have probably lost a lot of money over the years in that sense, but to be candid, I just don’t care. Money has pretty much has taken care of itself for me. But, the fields of economics and business do interest me, a lot.

[batman_fan]

Let's not forget the tech crash of 2000.  My wife worked for Merrill Lynch Investment Banking.  I had Ciena and JDSU stock and was buying a house.  One of the bankers she worked for rep'd JDSU and she asked if we should sell.  His response was "blue chip, not going anywhere". The next day it lost 20% of its value.  I dumped both stocks.  Both went on to lose about 80% of their value.  2008 - 2012 was a great buying opportunity as was 2020.

[Kryptic1]

I didn’t realize how far off we were from 2022 levels until I did the math.  Here’s the total value of art sold at Heritage signature auctions for each of the last 3 years:

2021: $31.7M

2022: $61.9M

2023: $38.2M

They’re 38% down from ‘22, and if you exclude the sale of Frazetta’s Dark Kingdom in the June 2023 auction, they’re down 48%.  Obviously we haven’t seen that kind of decline in prices.  The quality of art in these auctions is nowhere close to what it was last year when some crazy prices drew out a lot of incredible art.  Now consignors are expecting the same crazy prices, dealers have priced their inventory above ‘22 levels, and buyers aren’t interested at those prices.  It seems like buyers and sellers are now in a staring contest, waiting for the other to blink.

[cstojano]

Probably not the thread, but speaking of soft prices vs not I believe this is a record for a page from this book and don't quite understand why. 

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/story-page/eddie-campbell-and-eddie-campbell-from-hell-7-story-page-20-original-art-mad-love-publishing-/a/322347-49025.s?type=bidnotice-tracked-endofauction