What would happen if a large quantity of a key issue were found? 2 2

[Comicdave]

I was reading up on the history of Heroes Inc. Presents Cannon #1 by Wally Wood wanting to know exactly why the comic was still inexpensive to buy. I had heard that a large number of copies were found in a warehouse. I guess this is correct as apparently 70,000 copies were auctioned off by Heritage in 2005. So that got me to thinking what would happen to the prices of a key comic book if let's say 10000 or more high grade copies were found in a warehouse or some other location? For example how far do you think the price of Hulk 181 or Spider-man 129 or even Iron Man 1 would drop if 10,000+ copies were discovered? Do you think they would still go for over $1000 in high grade or do you think they would plummit to under $100? There would obviously still be a large demand for these comics, but how far would the price have to drop before all copies would be absorbed into collections?

[Cat]

All i know from warehouse finds from figure collecting is that it doesn't take as many copies as you'd think. 

[Namtak]

On 11/22/2023 at 6:53 PM, Comicdave said:

I was reading up on the history of Heroes Inc. Presents Cannon #1 by Wally Wood wanting to know exactly why the comic was still inexpensive to buy. I had heard that a large number of copies were found in a warehouse. I guess this is correct as apparently 70,000 copies were auctioned off by Heritage in 2005. So that got me to thinking what would happen to the prices of a key comic book if let's say 10000 or more high grade copies were found in a warehouse or some other location? For example how far do you think the price of Hulk 181 or Spider-man 129 or even Iron Man 1 would drop if 10,000+ copies were discovered? Do you think they would still go for over $1000 in high grade or do you think they would plummit to under $100? There would obviously still be a large demand for these comics, but how far would the price have to drop before all copies would be absorbed into collections?

Let just say id be glad to buy them for a dollar!

[EastEnd1]

On 11/22/2023 at 6:53 PM, Comicdave said:

I was reading up on the history of Heroes Inc. Presents Cannon #1 by Wally Wood wanting to know exactly why the comic was still inexpensive to buy. I had heard that a large number of copies were found in a warehouse. I guess this is correct as apparently 70,000 copies were auctioned off by Heritage in 2005. So that got me to thinking what would happen to the prices of a key comic book if let's say 10000 or more high grade copies were found in a warehouse or some other location? For example how far do you think the price of Hulk 181 or Spider-man 129 or even Iron Man 1 would drop if 10,000+ copies were discovered? Do you think they would still go for over $1000 in high grade or do you think they would plummit to under $100? There would obviously still be a large demand for these comics, but how far would the price have to drop before all copies would be absorbed into collections?

My understanding is that Iron Man #1 IS a warehouse book.  As is Iron Man & Sub-Mariner #1, Incredible Hulk #102 and Fantastic Four #48.  I know someone who once had half a long box of unread Iron Man #1s.  Doesn't look like its exactly killed the current day value but I guess they'd go for even more without the finds. 

Having said that, I do recall that when the Gaines file copy ECs flooded the market through Heritage and some of the other auction houses in the mid-2000s, there was a dramatic hit to EC's versus other pre-code books.  They have recovered though in recent years   

[BlowUpTheMoon]

On 11/22/2023 at 7:09 PM, EastEnd1 said:

Iron Man #1

Iron Man #2 

[namisgr]

From a warehouse in Washington state in the days before CGC, with large multiples of several 1968 Marvel first and second issues, including for Submariner, Dr. Strange, Hulk, Captain America, Captain Marvel, Nick Fury, and Ironman/Submariner, plus the two Spectacular Spiderman magazines.  It had Iron Man #1 as well for sale in VF/NM, NM, and NM/M.  Most that I bought had white pages.

I agree with the view that warehouse finds large enough to bloat the census for high grade copies have somewhat lowered book value owing to the large supply, but have not cratered prices.  The few that I know about were found before CGC existed, and so were slabbed and released to market slowly over time, which probably helped keep the market for them from tanking.  I suspect this is what Greggy probably does for selling as well, after he gets back yet another sweet CGC submission with 5-10 ultra high grade copies of the same issues.

    

Edited November 23, 2023 by namisgr

[KCOComics]

I think it depends on the book. 

My guess is a book like AF15 could hold value better than a book like Ironman 1.   There is just greater demand for it.  

Hulk 181 is everywhere. Tons of copies available every night across many platforms. But the value remains proped up, because the demand is high. If you find 10k new high grade copies and made high grade issues as accessible as low grade, I'm sure that would have a negative impact. 

[Ryan.]

True Life Secrets 23 still seems to hold value despite there being a seemingly endless supply.

[shadroch]

It would depend on who found them and how they were sold.  If the owner was foolish enough to announce he'd discovered 10 cases of X-Men 1, the prices would crash.  If the person simply sold one a month for a few years, it wouldn't.

[Ken Aldred]

On 11/22/2023 at 11:53 PM, Comicdave said:

I was reading up on the history of Heroes Inc. Presents Cannon #1 by Wally Wood wanting to know exactly why the comic was still inexpensive to buy. I had heard that a large number of copies were found in a warehouse. I guess this is correct as apparently 70,000 copies were auctioned off by Heritage in 2005. So that got me to thinking what would happen to the prices of a key comic book if let's say 10000 or more high grade copies were found in a warehouse or some other location? For example how far do you think the price of Hulk 181 or Spider-man 129 or even Iron Man 1 would drop if 10,000+ copies were discovered? Do you think they would still go for over $1000 in high grade or do you think they would plummit to under $100? There would obviously still be a large demand for these comics, but how far would the price have to drop before all copies would be absorbed into collections?

They wouldn’t depreciate to the level of Heroes Inc.

I was given a NM copy of it for free.

No such worries.

Edited November 23, 2023 by Ken Aldred

[Ken Aldred]

On 11/23/2023 at 12:05 AM, Namtak said:

Let just say id be glad to buy them for a dollar!

I did once get offered another copy of Heroes Inc for a dollar.

But, I declined.

[LowGradeBronze]

I think it would take a huge number of IH181 hitting the market to dent the price. There's so much pent up demand for that book. It would need tens of thousands. Plus, books turning up like that from another age, literally, are still fish out of water in 2023. They would still be able to command a high price. The people selling may be able to offer a little discount as a sweetener, if they had a whole pile of Doctor Strange 169, for instance, but its place in comicdom being assured now, it wouldn't be a dollar bin book. 

[stormflora]

On 11/23/2023 at 7:54 AM, shadroch said:

It would depend on who found them and how they were sold.  If the owner was foolish enough to announce he'd discovered 10 cases of X-Men 1, the prices would crash.  If the person simply sold one a month for a few years, it wouldn't.

This. It's all about awareness and exposure. Obviously, economics comes into play and the overall value of the comic would drop, but there is always the whole "tree falls in a forest" adage.

Even if 10,000 file copies were suddenly found and sold, if buyers are not aware of it, they'll still think that the issue is worth the same as before. Not everyone watches every single auction sold on Heritage, and/or actively keeps up to date with comic-related news. And, if the one entity acquired the massive lot decides to shove it into a display case and not resell a single issue of it, then it still changes nothing as the market supply hasn't really changed.

So, the depreciation in price could be anywhere from blazing fast to virtually none, depending on the comic and issue.

Edited November 23, 2023 by stormflora

[D2]

I love these kinds of things, and I fully admit I am a total nut when it comes to chatting about this, so I thank you in advance for bringing this up. 
 

I will talk about Hulk 181, because it’s easy and I like the book. I will blend objective numbers with subjective thinking. 

First let’s look at how many there are and the prices they command (grouping together SS for the sake of argument):

9.9 - 1 exists. No sales figure
9.8 - 155 exist. Average sale: 75k, Low: 66k
9.6 - 400 exist. Average sale: 22k, Low: 18k
9.4 - 630 exist. Average sale: 14k, Low: 11k
9.2 - 850 exist. Average sale: 10k, Low: 8k
9.0 - 1,190 exist. Average sale: 8k, Low: 7k

So the first thing I think we can all agree is if 1,000 or many thousands were found and made available to the market. Yes the book values would decrease. I do not believe that doubling the count would decrease the value 50% however. 

The second thing I would note is, in order to keep a book’s ‘value’, essentially: 155 “people” must be willing to pay $66,000 for a 9.8 copy for Hulk 181. Now we all know many owners of that 9.8, I am sure, have and have had that book way before that value ballooned. Regardless… moving forward, any transaction that takes place must sustain those “lows”.

Subjectively, I think those CGC counts are too high to sustain those values. I really do. 
I don’t think that value of that book will ever be cut in half, but essentially I try to guess, what would someone be willing to pay for something, and 155 people to shell out $66,000 for each copy? Don’t see it. 

Same example, there are 1,190 copies for a 9.0 valued at $7k. It’s easier for someone to buy multiple copies at 7k, but still… that is 1,190 transactions. $8,300,000 to own them all. Nah, not likely. 

It’s like De Beers, own the market, own the price. Right now the values hold. But these numbers and costs, don’t make sense to me long term. Too many of them. 

[Robot Man]

Still amazes me what Hulk 181 goes for. I understand the popularity of Wolverine. But this book is common as dirt in all grades. And, frankly, it is pretty much unreadable…

I remember one year at SDCC when a dealer had piles of Harvey file copies. Anywhere from 10-30 copies of each title and issue of PCH. I had my pick of Black Cat Mystery #50 as well as a bunch of others. I picked out the best one of each. I went back an hour or so later and they were pretty much all gone. And he only had a small fraction of the copies found. Anybody who collects PCH knows how much these are bringing now.

The 1968 Marvels previously mentioned are another good example. They were everywhere for years. Now sucked into collections. And, no longer $10. each…

[Gambold Vintage]

The response to the question depends on numbers and grade of the suddenly found issues. To use the most extreme example, if 20,000 copies of IH181 in 9.8 condition were suddenly found in some giant freezer, yes, the market for that book would crash, unless you can find 20,000 people willing to spend 70K each for one. Pretty doubtful. 

What is a harder to determine is what if 100 copies were found, ranging from 9.0 to 9.6? That's only an additional 3% to the current 3000 that exist in those conditions, so it's probable there would little to no effect on pricing. If anything, prices might creep up a bit because of the flurry of bids to get one of those new-found copies. 

 

Edited November 23, 2023 by Gambold Vintage

[Gambold Vintage]

>And, frankly, it is pretty much unreadable<

Hah, that's never been a criterion for value. I collect pre-code horror, and outside of EC and some Harvey, almost all the writing and interior art is pretty bad. It's all about the covers! 

Edited November 23, 2023 by Gambold Vintage

[Robot Man]

On 11/23/2023 at 8:04 AM, Gambold Vintage said:

>And, frankly, it is pretty much unreadable<

Hah, that's never been a criteria for value. I collect pre-code horror, and outside of EC and some Harvey, almost all the writing and interior art is garbage. It's all about the covers! 

Not really true. There are tons of PCH books and publishers that have great art and stories. Sometimes, the contents are FAR better than the covers. CGC grading have turned many of them into just a cover experience. Now, that being said, if you have read as many as I have, many become a bit predictable. You just have to search out the good stuff and that is the challenge and fun…

[newshane]

Simple. The value of the key issue would plummet. 

If you ever stumble across an attic stuffed with 100 copies of a key, I would keep that very, very quiet. 

Edited November 23, 2023 by newshane

[newshane]

On 11/23/2023 at 9:57 AM, Robot Man said:

Still amazes me what Hulk 181 goes for. I understand the popularity of Wolverine. But this book is common as dirt in all grades. And, frankly, it is pretty much unreadable…

 

I've said the same thing for years...yet I continue to see the price creep up and up. 

I should have gotten a 9.8 back when they were 6 or 7K. But hindsight is always 20/20.