ASM #252 CGC 9.8 Record Sale - something fishy going on? - Holder Tampering Incident confirmed by CGC 50 50

[comicwiz]

On 1/14/2024 at 11:07 PM, wiparker824 said:

Well after. Again, I recommend reading what they wrote on page 332. Would seem to answer all of your GPA questions. 

I even quoted it right after your post with my thanks to GPA.

Edited January 15 by comicwiz

[comicwiz]

On 1/15/2024 at 7:21 AM, Bookery said:

I may be misunderstanding this.  I guess for tracking specific certification numbers, there may be an issue.  But as for pricing, the fact that the books were fraudulent really doesn't make a difference.  If someone bought a 9.8, but in reality the book inside had been switched for one missing a Marvel stamp, for example, the price being paid still represents what someone wanted to pay for a 9.8, the actual book inside notwithstanding.  Therefore GPA averages for a given period and grade shouldn't be affected.  

It's a lot more complicated than what you are describing (esp the part I bolded). The issue is that this whole situation is continually evolving and is nowhere near being finalized. That 350 list continues to shrink with books being struck off the list, and I continue finding books not on the original list. The other part of this is that certification numbers are being purged from the CGC Verify Certification look-up. No redacting or manner of explaning why, no connection at all to these books, serving in some instances as a donor book to a swap. The reason I posted the examples and matrix with Project Green to Blue was to capture a glimpse into the manner this was being monetized, often with donor books being purchased a month or several months prior to the blue example selling at a factor of two or in multiples of the donor. The other things I've only spoken of is the way certain books would repeatedly be sold, and this is something that needs to be reconciled at some point, but it is VERY early in the investigative stages. It could be even worse than some of the things we've talked about, with more than just two books sharing the same cert number. I'd like to see CGC reveal some of their own findings. They've become so comfortable letting the community do the grunt work, discovery and fact pattern finding that expecting some level of collaborative back and forth is a pipe dream at this point. But we definitely have the evidence showing the subversion of more than "holder tampering"; rather, the very real problem with downstream impacts this has had on their certification look-up and systems we use for pricing is that CGC is showing an unusual penchant for quietly purging information in the background without explanation. Some of the information being purged is vital to the ways an investigation is able to gather a chain of evidence, which in itself seemingly reveals a pattern of tampering with evidence. The discourse needs to focus on the latter, and the reasons why this is happening, rather than the down the line impacts of the other ways this incident has manipulated the market. 

Edited January 15 by comicwiz

[jas1vans]

On 1/15/2024 at 6:21 AM, Bookery said:

I may be misunderstanding this.  I guess for tracking specific certification numbers, there may be an issue.  But as for pricing, the fact that the books were fraudulent really doesn't make a difference.  If someone bought a 9.8, but in reality the book inside had been switched for one missing a Marvel stamp, for example, the price being paid still represents what someone wanted to pay for a 9.8, the actual book inside notwithstanding.  Therefore GPA averages for a given period and grade shouldn't be affected.  

I think, and I could be very mistaken, that some of the issue is not just the book swapping, but also shill bidding by the people that are at the center of this. Swapping out the books and manipulating slabs is the headline, but the shill bidding and price manipulation are also a key component of the overall.

Side note: as a non-slabber still learning about the hobby, I'm happy to see all the "Joined" dates with two zeroes popping up in this thread.

[Superman2006]

On 1/15/2024 at 8:50 AM, jas1vans said:

On 1/15/2024 at 7:21 AM, Bookery said:

I may be misunderstanding this.  I guess for tracking specific certification numbers, there may be an issue.  But as for pricing, the fact that the books were fraudulent really doesn't make a difference.  If someone bought a 9.8, but in reality the book inside had been switched for one missing a Marvel stamp, for example, the price being paid still represents what someone wanted to pay for a 9.8, the actual book inside notwithstanding.  Therefore GPA averages for a given period and grade shouldn't be affected.  

I think, and I could be very mistaken, that some of the issue is not just the book swapping, but also shill bidding by the people that are at the center of this. Swapping out the books and manipulating slabs is the headline, but the shill bidding and price manipulation are also a key component of the overall.

Side note: as a non-slabber still learning about the hobby, I'm happy to see all the "Joined" dates with two zeroes popping up in this thread.

As an offset to potential shill bidding is the fact that some bidders look at the actual book and not just the big number on the top left of the slab, and for a book that has been swapped that has more wear than normal for a 9.8, they will bid accordingly, or not bid at all, which would bring down the sales price.

Not that it's my call, but I don't feel strongly one way or another as to whether GPA should exclude such sales; maybe an asterisk would be appropriate, but can understand why GPA might deem that to be more trouble than it's worth.

[comicwiz]

Is the Verify Cert down for others too?

[pdags]

On 1/15/2024 at 10:07 AM, comicwiz said:

Is the Verify Cert down for others too?

Yes (for me at least).  Same message.

[EastEnd1]

FWIW, here's the final sales prices of Incredible Hulk #181s in the recent Heritage Signature auction (compared to the GPA 90 day average)...

9.8  $72,000 ($64.975)

9.6  $18,000 ($17,800)

9.6 signed by Stan Lee, John Romita, Herb Trimpe  $18,000 (N/A)

Just anecdotal, but doesn't appear to be any downward effect yet... though you'd expect the signed 9.6 to sell for more than the unsigned one.

There's a 9.4 that will sell tomorrow night in Heritage's weekly auction sitting at $5750 right now.  Last sale in October was $11,301.

There's also a 9.6 in ComicLink's current auction sitting at $8100 currently, that will sell in seven days . 

[EastEnd1]

On 1/15/2024 at 10:07 AM, comicwiz said:

Is the Verify Cert down for others too?

 

Yes, doesn't seem to be working at the moment.

[Martian Manhunter]

On 1/6/2024 at 12:05 PM, Sigur Ros said:

What do you read?

Swamp Thing, Justice League Dark, Justice League, Green Lantern, and Justice League.

[CGC Mike]

On 1/14/2024 at 1:17 AM, Microchip said:

Hi @CGC Mike are any of these books sitting in registry sets?

a. If so, is CGC contacting the collectors?

b. are these books going to be withdrawn by CGC from the registry sets?

 

https://www.cgccomics.com/news/article/12454/

 

On 1/15/2024 at 4:51 AM, Gaard said:

I'm not so sure about this. @CGC Mike is checking on the answer to the question I asked him. 

 

The FAQ page has been updated to answer these 2 concerns.  Fair market value will be based on the incorrect (higher) grade.  Also, CGC is contacting the owners of impacted books in the CGC Comics Registry to request that they submit the books for Holder Review.

FAQs

What happens when I submit a book for Holder Review?

If your book is determined to be correctly graded, it will be reholdered with a new certification number and returned to you at no charge. If your book is determined to be incorrectly graded, CGC will retain your book as evidence, and you will be compensated for the current fair market value of an accurately graded book at the original incorrect (higher) grade. Fair market value is calculated in accordance with the CGC Guarantee.

How did CGC create the list of impacted books?

Due to the ongoing investigation, at this time we cannot share how we determined which books were impacted.

What changes are being made because of this incident?

CGC is always evaluating ways to make our processes better and our holders more secure. Every reholder submission is now being reviewed by a Senior Grader, and we have made other significant improvements to our processes as a result of this incident. We will continue to take appropriate steps to help ensure that this type of incident does not happen again.

We will make an announcement if we have any new information to share about updates to our processes or holders. However, please understand that some updates will not be made public because they are proprietary and relate to security.

Will the list of impacted certification numbers be retained?

We will retain the list of impacted certification numbers on this page of our website. As impacted books are returned, the certification number will be struck through, indicating it is no longer valid and the book has been given a new certification number. Certification numbers that are no longer valid will not be searchable in the Verify CGC Certification database, consistent with our normal reholder process and to ensure that there is no duplication in the CGC Census population report.

What happens to impacted books in CGC Comics Registry sets?

CGC is contacting the owners of impacted books in the CGC Comics Registry to request that they submit the books for Holder Review.

Books Eligible for Holder Review

Certification numbers with a strikethrough have been submitted for Holder Review.

[CGC Mike]

On 1/15/2024 at 10:07 AM, comicwiz said:

Is the Verify Cert down for others too?

 

On 1/15/2024 at 10:15 AM, pdags said:

Yes (for me at least).  Same message.

 

On 1/15/2024 at 10:25 AM, EastEnd1 said:

 

Yes, doesn't seem to be working at the moment.

The servers were down earlier.  It should be working now.

[comicwiz]

On 1/15/2024 at 12:44 PM, CGC Mike said:

 

 

The servers were down earlier.  It should be working now.

Thanks @CGC Mike

[Gonzimodo]

I sold my raw Uncanny X-Men 266 MJI years ago (early 2000s) on eBay.  I didn't advertise it as an MJI because at the time I didn't realize that actually meant anything.  (Most of my comics from late 1989 to mid-1991 are MJIs because I was in the Army and stationed in Germany at the time.)  It was a really nice-looking high grade copy aside from a dinged lower left corner (probably from shipping back to the US), so I sold it and bought a better-looking direct edition copy.  

I've often wondered whatever became of it, and it's crazy to think that it could theoretically be involved in this scam.  

[grendel013]

On 1/15/2024 at 3:25 PM, Gonzimodo said:

I sold my raw Uncanny X-Men 266 MJI years ago (early 2000s) on eBay.  I didn't advertise it as an MJI because at the time I didn't realize that actually meant anything.  (Most of my comics from late 1989 to mid-1991 are MJIs because I was in the Army and stationed in Germany at the time.)  It was a really nice-looking high grade copy aside from a dinged lower left corner (probably from shipping back to the US), so I sold it and bought a better-looking direct edition copy.  

I've often wondered whatever became of it, and it's crazy to think that it could theoretically be involved in this scam.  

Dammit! This all your fault!!

 

just kidding.

[Gonzimodo]

On 1/15/2024 at 4:01 PM, grendel013 said:

Dammit! This all your fault!!

 

just kidding.

I've still got a really nice-looking New Mutants 98 MJI...  

[comicjel]

On 1/15/2024 at 3:25 PM, Gonzimodo said:

I sold my raw Uncanny X-Men 266 MJI years ago (early 2000s) on eBay.  I didn't advertise it as an MJI because at the time I didn't realize that actually meant anything.  (Most of my comics from late 1989 to mid-1991 are MJIs because I was in the Army and stationed in Germany at the time.)  It was a really nice-looking high grade copy aside from a dinged lower left corner (probably from shipping back to the US), so I sold it and bought a better-looking direct edition copy.  

I've often wondered whatever became of it, and it's crazy to think that it could theoretically be involved in this scam.  

Hm... what did you do with your ASM 252 MJI??  I might have a lead on where it ended up!

[Bookery]

On 1/15/2024 at 8:46 AM, comicwiz said:

It's a lot more complicated than what you are describing (esp the part I bolded). The issue is that this whole situation is continually evolving and is nowhere near being finalized. That 350 list continues to shrink with books being struck off the list, and I continue finding books not on the original list. The other part of this is that certification numbers are being purged from the CGC Verify Certification look-up. No redacting or manner of explaning why, no connection at all to these books, serving in some instances as a donor book to a swap. The reason I posted the examples and matrix with Project Green to Blue was to capture a glimpse into the manner this was being monetized, often with donor books being purchased a month or several months prior to the blue example selling at a factor of two or in multiples of the donor. The other things I've only spoken of is the way certain books would repeatedly be sold, and this is something that needs to be reconciled at some point, but it is VERY early in the investigative stages. It could be even worse than some of the things we've talked about, with more than just two books sharing the same cert number. I'd like to see CGC reveal some of their own findings. They've become so comfortable letting the community do the grunt work, discovery and fact pattern finding that expecting some level of collaborative back and forth is a pipe dream at this point. But we definitely have the evidence showing the subversion of more than "holder tampering"; rather, the very real problem with downstream impacts this has had on their certification look-up and systems we use for pricing is that CGC is showing an unusual penchant for quietly purging information in the background without explanation. Some of the information being purged is vital to the ways an investigation is able to gather a chain of evidence, which in itself seemingly reveals a pattern of tampering with evidence. The discourse needs to focus on the latter, and the reasons why this is happening, rather than the down the line impacts of the other ways this incident has manipulated the market. 

Oh I understand that it's plenty complicated in terms of CGC.  That's why I haven't posted previously in this thread.  There are others such as you that are far more qualified to discuss the ramifications of all of this.  My comment wasn't about the CGC/scammer issue at all, per se.  It was simply a comment about if a sale is listed in GPA that later turns out to be a book that was switched, it doesn't really affect the averages because it still represents what a buyer thought they were getting and agreed to pay for.  But others pointed out some things to consider in this as well.

[Bookery]

On 1/15/2024 at 8:50 AM, jas1vans said:

I think, and I could be very mistaken, that some of the issue is not just the book swapping, but also shill bidding by the people that are at the center of this. Swapping out the books and manipulating slabs is the headline, but the shill bidding and price manipulation are also a key component of the overall.

Side note: as a non-slabber still learning about the hobby, I'm happy to see all the "Joined" dates with two zeroes popping up in this thread.

Shill bidding is a separate issue, and of course GPA wouldn't want any of those type of sales included, if they discovered them.  I was only addressing price vs. book-swapping.   

[Bookery]

On 1/15/2024 at 9:49 AM, Superman2006 said:

As an offset to potential shill bidding is the fact that some bidders look at the actual book and not just the big number on the top left of the slab, and for a book that has been swapped that has more wear than normal for a 9.8, they will bid accordingly, or not bid at all, which would bring down the sales price.

Not that it's my call, but I don't feel strongly one way or another as to whether GPA should exclude such sales; maybe an asterisk would be appropriate, but can understand why GPA might deem that to be more trouble than it's worth.

No here is a point I hadn't considered, especially for ultra-high grades.  I was thinking of the swapped Marvel-stamp books when I posted, but this is definitely a consideration that could affect bid prices, even if the buyers were unaware of the books being switched.  Thanks.

[Dr. Balls]

On 1/15/2024 at 1:25 PM, Gonzimodo said:

I sold my raw Uncanny X-Men 266 MJI years ago (early 2000s) on eBay.  I didn't advertise it as an MJI because at the time I didn't realize that actually meant anything.

It still doesn't.