AF #15 CGC 9.0 on the 'link

[VintageComics]

check it....

[ft88]

Why would the book be reholdered?

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

check it....

 

Seems to be a WHOLE lot of great stuff out there when I look at the dealer sites, the Link, and eBay.

 

you can buy practically ANY Marvel key between 7.0 and 9.0+. Multiple copies of Avengers # 1, Hulk # 1, Amazing Fantasy # 15, FF # 1, Tales of Suspense # 39, Journey into Mystery # 83, X-men # 1, etc., etc.

 

Lots of similarities between the high grade Silver Age key and Real Estate markets right now: a glut of inventory, a price paradigm based on previous market peaks not current trends, far too few buyers willing to pay top dollar (with most looking for deals), and a whole lot of nervous nancies wondering if the gravy train has left the station for good.

[comicdonna]

It seems overpriced, considering BV is $32,500

[g-man]

wow the 1st 4 books are killer!

[drdonaldblake]

htat particular copy of AF 15 looks like its been pressed to me

[esquirecomics]

Personally, I think anyone paying high multiples for these SA books, even the early keys and in HG, are in for a major shock when they find out there are far more copies in existence at that grade, or above, than they think.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Personally, I think anyone paying high multiples for these SA books, even the early keys and in HG, are in for a major shock when they find out there are far more copies in existence at that grade, or above, than they think.

 

Just did a quick survey of three dealer sites, the Link, and ebay....some interesting stuff:

 

(9) copies of Tales of Suspense # 39 currently available from CGC 6.5 and up.

(6) copies of Daredevil # 1 in CGC 8.5 or better

and a whopping (15) copies of Avengers # 4 in CGC 7.0 and up.

 

That's a lot of copies of just those three books to be absorbed back by the market at current price points, IMHO.

 

(Note, its possible there was cross-listing of stuff from one site to another, I didn't take the time to compare serial #s).

[Aman619]

Personally, I think anyone paying high multiples for these SA books, even the early keys and in HG, are in for a major shock when they find out there are far more copies in existence at that grade, or above, than they think.

 

Im surprised to hear you say this. Sure we all agree the census is far from finished, but these are the top Marvel SA keys, in 9.0 and better. There ARE more copies, but you really think there are that many more AF15s above 9.0 ? Double the present census? I still maintain that the great majority of the unslabbed killer HG copies sitting in collections wont hold up against the true 9.4s that have been graded. My experience has convinced me that the "best looking copies" we all put together in the 90s and 90s turned out to be mostly 8.5s. True CGC 9.4s of these select books just were never common or easy to find.

[esquirecomics]

Personally, I think anyone paying high multiples for these SA books, even the early keys and in HG, are in for a major shock when they find out there are far more copies in existence at that grade, or above, than they think.

 

Im surprised to hear you say this. Sure we all agree the census is far from finished, but these are the top Marvel SA keys, in 9.0 and better. There ARE more copies, but you really think there are that many more AF15s above 9.0 ? Double the present census? I still maintain that the great majority of the unslabbed killer HG copies sitting in collections wont hold up against the true 9.4s that have been graded. My experience has convinced me that the "best looking copies" we all put together in the 90s and 90s turned out to be mostly 8.5s. True CGC 9.4s of these select books just were never common or easy to find.

 

I've actually said this many times already. Are there that "many more" above 9.0? I guess that depends on how many is "many more". But I certainly think there are far more copies around that we simply do not know about, even in HG, that will ultimately come to light, and I do believe that as time goes by the multiples will not be able to keep up with the market and the prices will level out. Unless I knew I had a quick flip to make, no way am I paying these kinds of multiples for SA books.

 

We are not talking about 1938 and the initial days of comics when barely anyone collected, paper quality was poor and books were shared among 5-7 kids so that few copies survive above VG. Nor are we talking about 1956 where superheros were out, and few still collected. We are looking at a window of 1961-1964 where superheros were once again immensely popular, and collecting had become a word in the dictionary.

 

I could be wrong. But if I am right, a lot of folks will be kicking themselves. And that is a lot of kicks for $75k.

[BlackHeartedDwarf-migratio]

htat particular copy of AF 15 looks like its been pressed to me

And I suppose it looks like the back cover has some restoration on it as well?

[Aman619]

I agree there are more, yes. but I still stand by my statement that nearly all of these "other copies" will not grade out for the early SA keys. I may just be extrapolating from my purchases in which most of my killer keys (including pedigree books) did not make it above 9.0. As you know, what we now think of as 9.4 for these books was, back then, a freakishly nice book, better than the VERY NICE "NMs" dealers had for sale at double guide etc.

[Bullet123]

Mark,

 

I guess if I go to your website I will be able to find those 9.4 and 9.6 oinkers of yours at 9.2 guide price? Would you be so kind as to point them out for me as I was looking to purchase a few worthless books to use as kindling to keep myself warm on these cold NY winter nights

[Norrin_Radd]

Personally, I think anyone paying high multiples for these SA books, even the early keys and in HG, are in for a major shock when they find out there are far more copies in existence at that grade, or above, than they think.

 

Just did a quick survey of three dealer sites, the Link, and ebay....some interesting stuff:

 

(9) copies of Tales of Suspense # 39 currently available from CGC 6.5 and up.

(6) copies of Daredevil # 1 in CGC 8.5 or better

and a whopping (15) copies of Avengers # 4 in CGC 7.0 and up.

 

That's a lot of copies of just those three books to be absorbed back by the market at current price points, IMHO.

 

Let's just say the one word everyone is thinking........

 

 

 

 

 

GLUT!

 

 

 

 

The illusion of rarity has been lifted by CGC. And we are left with the FACT that no SA key is scarce, even in HG.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

The illusion of rarity has been lifted by CGC. And we are left with the FACT that no SA key is scarce, even in HG.

 

I would disagree, I still think that there are early Marvels that are legitimately tough to find in HG. I don't think that's the whole issue.

 

The concern is the waning demand for these books AT PREVIOUSLY ESTABLISHED PRICE POINTS.

 

An Avengers # 4 in 9.6 is still a desirable key. Having two on the market at the same time doesn't help either move, though you would think the one priced at $19,500 would draw some interest compared to the Pacific Coast copy currently on Doug's site for $30,000.

Unless of course, the general sentiment of those that can afford such books is that both are overpriced (put me firmly in that camp).

 

Right now its a glut, which is causing a correction in the uber price levels. Slashing prices 10-35% is going to be the norm until the market either turns back in favor of the seller, or in my opinion, moves further south as fewer buyers chase more and more available books.

[FFB]

Personally, I think anyone paying high multiples for these SA books, even the early keys and in HG, are in for a major shock when they find out there are far more copies in existence at that grade, or above, than they think.

 

Just did a quick survey of three dealer sites, the Link, and ebay....some interesting stuff:

 

(9) copies of Tales of Suspense # 39 currently available from CGC 6.5 and up.

(6) copies of Daredevil # 1 in CGC 8.5 or better

and a whopping (15) copies of Avengers # 4 in CGC 7.0 and up.

 

That's a lot of copies of just those three books to be absorbed back by the market at current price points, IMHO.

 

Let's just say the one word everyone is thinking........

 

 

 

 

 

GLUT!

 

 

 

 

The illusion of rarity has been lifted by CGC. And we are left with the FACT that no SA key is scarce, even in HG.

 

Showcase #4, #8, #13, and #14 are pretty scarce in HG (OSPG even lists #14 as "rare in NM"). So are FF#3, Adventure Comics #247, and B&B#28. If you are talking minor keys like B&B#25, there are quite a few books from the early SA that are scarce (or even non-existent?) in HG. On whole, it seems like the early SA DCs are much rarer than the Marvels, unless you're talking pre-hero. Then stuff like ST#89 looks pretty rare in HG.

[Harvey Dude]

I agree there are more, yes. but I still stand by my statement that nearly all of these "other copies" will not grade out for the early SA keys. I may just be extrapolating from my purchases in which most of my killer keys (including pedigree books) did not make it above 9.0. As you know, what we now think of as 9.4 for these books was, back then, a freakishly nice book, better than the VERY NICE "NMs" dealers had for sale at double guide etc.

 

I really don't know how many high grade copies of those key books are out there but I suspect a few more will surface. In 1988, I purchased an AF #15 for 2x guide and it would have easily graded a 9.2. Due to a short-fused requirement to move, I sold that book and a NM WDC&S #1 to a well known collector/dealer who does not slab his books. To this day, I don't know if the books have reentered the market.

[Aman619]

I agree there are more, yes. but I still stand by my statement that nearly all of these "other copies" will not grade out for the early SA keys. I may just be extrapolating from my purchases in which most of my killer keys (including pedigree books) did not make it above 9.0. As you know, what we now think of as 9.4 for these books was, back then, a freakishly nice book, better than the VERY NICE "NMs" dealers had for sale at double guide etc.

 

I really don't know how many high grade copies of those key books are out there but I suspect a few more will surface. In 1988, I purchased an AF #15 for 2x guide and it would have easily graded a 9.2. Due to a short-fused requirement to move, I sold that book and a NM+ WDC&S #1 to a well known collector/dealer who does not slab his books. To this day, I don't know if the books have reentered the market.

 

A few more, yes. A whole lot more, no. Now all we have to do is either define these nebulous terms, or sit back and wait.

 

as for you 9.2 copy, I believe it was really nice. Maybe a 9.4 or a 9.0. Thats one more. I have no problem believing your copy was as nice as you remember it. But, CGC seems to find lots of flaws we overlooked, as we were blinded by 2 or three corners or a tight spine. How about subtle creases etc. Depending on whether you were a structure guy. or a Qp guy, or a front cover only guy, it makes a difference since CGC flips the books over and grades the backs too! And looks at ALL the corners etc.

 

Just not fair I tell you! Changing the rules so drastically.

[burntboy]

I agree there are more, yes. but I still stand by my statement that nearly all of these "other copies" will not grade out for the early SA keys. I may just be extrapolating from my purchases in which most of my killer keys (including pedigree books) did not make it above 9.0. As you know, what we now think of as 9.4 for these books was, back then, a freakishly nice book, better than the VERY NICE "NMs" dealers had for sale at double guide etc.

 

I really don't know how many high grade copies of those key books are out there but I suspect a few more will surface. In 1988, I purchased an AF #15 for 2x guide and it would have easily graded a 9.2. Due to a short-fused requirement to move, I sold that book and a NM+ WDC&S #1 to a well known collector/dealer who does not slab his books. To this day, I don't know if the books have reentered the market.

 

A few more, yes. A whole lot more, no. Now all we have to do is either define these nebulous terms, or sit back and wait.

 

as for you 9.2 copy, I believe it was really nice. Maybe a 9.4 or a 9.0. Thats one more. I have no problem believing your copy was as nice as you remember it. But, CGC seems to find lots of flaws we overlooked, as we were blinded by 2 or three corners or a tight spine. How about subtle creases etc. Depending on whether you were a structure guy. or a Qp guy, or a front cover only guy, it makes a difference since CGC flips the books over and grades the backs too! And looks at ALL the corners etc.

 

Just not fair I tell you! Changing the rules so drastically.

 

Aman - i think i'm in your camp on this one..............

 

i'm still waiting for the "Way More" copies of AF#15 to materialize.............

[Harvey Dude]

Good point. I was always afraid to even touch the books so I never looked inside or at the back of the book for that matter. I am a cover guy myself.