AF #15 CGC 9.0 on the 'link

[Aman619]

thanx. I was just surprised that Mark didnt agree.... Cause he's and would rather he be on my side than not. But maybe Im just a naive optimistic collector who has no idea of the magnitude of the supply... even for the earliest Marvel keys.

 

and FFB is right with his comments on DC SA keys. they are far and away more scarce above 8.5 than Marvels.

[all4comics]

Value = whatever someone is willing to pay... then, now and in the future!

 

This might really only apply to collectors, but investors who are paying this kind of money for comics for investment purposes must know the risk that's involved.. I mean, it goes for all forms of investing .... Right?

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Value = whatever someone is willing to pay... then, now and in the future!

 

Very true. Just ask any of the dozens of speculators who built houses in my town over the last six months (expecting a quick and profitable flip), but now find themselves having to pay a mortgage on a house that's just sitting there.

 

The same house would have fetched top dollar in the early summer, but now, is just one of 30-40 BRAND NEW homes a prospective buyer can choose from. Plenty of people would like to live in these houses, but the previous market highs (which many homes are still priced at) have made them so unaffordable that the number of potential buyers is greatly reduced. And the many that remain simply can't qualify for that type of loan, short of gimmicks and broker chicanery.

[tth2]

The illusion of rarity has been lifted by CGC. And we are left with the FACT that no SA key is scarce, even in HG.

Norinn, I assume you're talking about Marvels only. Others here have already made the point about DCs. But even with Marvels, there is some genuine scarcity in HG. Off the top of my head, Hulk #1, JIM #84, FF #3, TTA #27, TTA #35 and Sgt. Fury #1.

[esquirecomics]

Guys, frankly, this is purely an academic discussion so I really don't think anyone should get too worked up over who is or is not right. At this point in time there is no right or wrong answer. We can check back annually over a period of years to see who ultimately was accurate in their prediction. I base my prediction on more social norms of how collecting comics changed over the decades. And lets not forget how pressing or resubs may also impact the equation too.

 

All I am saying is that I, personally, would not risk the enormous capital/multiples that some are asking for key HG SA books unless I had a guaranteed quick flip already set because I, personally, believe the market will not sustain the multiples especially in light of my prediction that a significant number of "new" HG copies will eventually appear.

 

You can agree or disagree. No harm, no foul.

[batman_fan]

I agree with Mark on this one. I know of several collector (myself included) that do not slab books from their collection. There are a lot of high grade books still sitting in collections (Anyone ever heard of the Sid's Lunchenette collection?). Over time these books will come to the market. Also, the SA and BA collectors are coming of age (i.e. entering their most productive earning years) which helped to drive up prices. Will this continue? Ask yourself why GA is so much cheaper relative to SA given how scarse it is. I am guessing the number of GA collectors did not grow at teh same rate as the SA collectors. Prices will have to slow down on the ultra HG stuff unless there is some new influx of buyers for the material.

[Timulty]

I suspect part of the difference between the number of GA and SA collectors, has to do with the popularity of the Marvel SA characters. I remember as a kid perhaps 5 DC SA character cartoons and maybe 8 Marvel in the 70's. In the 80's almost no new DC cartoons. I believe that when this generation starts filling out their collections of SA and BA(since this is a much easier endeavor than GA). They will start going the GA route. I could be wrong. I am not Captain Marvel(the real one)!!!

[skybolt]

I love collecting SA Marvels, but at this point I just don't have that sense of urgency. Since I'm not an ubber high grade collector, I can always find a nice 7.0 copy of AF #15 or any other key Marvel when I choose to. However, since I've been mainly collecting GA books for the past 2 years, I can see how difficult it is to acquire certain books at any given time. It took me almost 2 years to even locate mid grade copies of Junior Comics to complete my run. It's not so much the thrill of the hunt for me, but the fact that if I miss the boat now, then all these GA books would eventually find their way into other people's permanent collections.

[lou_fine]

I agree with Mark on this one. I know of several collector (myself included) that do not slab books from their collection. There are a lot of high grade books still sitting in collections (Anyone ever heard of the Sid's Lunchenette collection?). Over time these books will come to the market. Also, the SA and BA collectors are coming of age (i.e. entering their most productive earning years) which helped to drive up prices. Will this continue? Ask yourself why GA is so much cheaper relative to SA given how scarse it is. I am guessing the number of GA collectors did not grow at teh same rate as the SA collectors. Prices will have to slow down on the ultra HG stuff unless there is some new influx of buyers for the material.

 

Yes, two very valid point here:

 

1) Virtually all of the long-term GA collectors are not part of the CGC slabbing generation. They only slab books when they are about to put them onto the market. They don't care a bit about the CGC Registry and the whole ego thing as they would much rather keep their collection as low profile as possible. These major GA collectors were picking up the SA books including the keys very early on in their collecting phase, and have yet to slab them.

 

2) The SA generation of collectors is starting to age a bit and will probably peak itself out within the next 10 years or so. How many collectors will still be chasing after mid-run SA issues for big time dollars? Will the focus change to only the keys simialr to how everybody focuses in on the GA classics given the high price of entry into this market?

 

I would be very careful putting premium dollars into SA books, especially with respect to the more common run-of-the-mill issues which might be forgotten by the next generation of collectors 60 years after the fact.

[esquirecomics]

1) Virtually all of the long-term GA collectors are not part of the CGC slabbing generation. They only slab books when they are about to put them onto the market. They don't care a bit about the CGC Registry and the whole ego thing as they would much rather keep their collection as low profile as possible. These major GA collectors were picking up the SA books including the keys very early on in their collecting phase, and have yet to slab them.

 

I'm curious as to why people think this sentence in bold might be the case? Obviously there are all different types of collectors and the motivations that guide them, but to me as a collector I love sharing the items I have acquired. It is not an issue of showing off that I have high $$$ items (if anything this causes a potential theft concern), but to me sharing these items is the very essence of being a collector. Not a lot of fun if you keep it to yourself, IMHO.

[blazingbob]

I found the below statement very interesting being that you have a 9.2 Showcase #4 priced at over $100K?

 

What exactly besides the hype that it's the beginning of the Silver age that makes this book worth that? With your statement below why would a buyer want to buy that book? Being that there have recently been a 9.4 and now a 9.6 graded makes me wonder how this book commands that price.

 

"All I am saying is that I, personally, would not risk the enormous capital/multiples that some are asking for key HG SA books unless I had a guaranteed quick flip already set because I, personally, believe the market will not sustain the multiples especially in light of my prediction that a significant number of "new" HG copies will eventually appear".

[lou_fine]

1) Virtually all of the long-term GA collectors are not part of the CGC slabbing generation. They only slab books when they are about to put them onto the market. They don't care a bit about the CGC Registry and the whole ego thing as they would much rather keep their collection as low profile as possible. These major GA collectors were picking up the SA books including the keys very early on in their collecting phase, and have yet to slab them.

 

I'm curious as to why people think this sentence in bold might be the case? Obviously there are all different types of collectors and the motivations that guide them, but to me as a collector I love sharing the items I have acquired. It is not an issue of showing off that I have high $$$ items (if anything this causes a potential theft concern), but to me sharing these items is the very essence of being a collector. Not a lot of fun if you keep it to yourself, IMHO.

 

Mark;

 

Since nobody else has yet responded to your question here, let me try to give it a shot. Just remember that I am talking more from generalization and this might not apply to every single collector.

 

I believe the long-term collectors generally got into the hobby because they always loved the comics first and foremost. This type of collector was probably characterized with an introverted personality and much more of your traditional comic nerd in the old sense. The fact that the books became hot money makers in the long-run was not the primary factor that drew them into the hobby. They were always there from the beginning and fortunate enough to be in the right place at the right time.

 

The CGC generation of collector may have been involved with comics somewhere in their past, but what really drew these collectors back into the hobby was the money factor first and foremost. If there was no CGC, no insane multiples to guide, all books still sitting in quarter boxes, this new generation of collectors would not be back in the hobby. This type of collector is characterized with much more of an extroverted personality and much more of your speculator or day trader type where hype, talk, and ego is just as important. The primary reason why they got back in is because of the money and less because of the books themselves.

 

Just my personal opinion here and I certainly hope that I have not offended anybody here with this answer.

[esquirecomics]

I found the below statement very interesting being that you have a 9.2 Showcase #4 priced at over $100K?

 

What exactly besides the hype that it's the beginning of the Silver age that makes this book worth that? With your statement below why would a buyer want to buy that book? Being that there have recently been a 9.4 and now a 9.6 graded makes me wonder how this book commands that price.

 

"All I am saying is that I, personally, would not risk the enormous capital/multiples that some are asking for key HG SA books unless I had a guaranteed quick flip already set because I, personally, believe the market will not sustain the multiples especially in light of my prediction that a significant number of "new" HG copies will eventually appear".

 

Bob, I seriously can't believe I need to explain this to you of all people. Showcase #4 came out in 1956 when superheroes and comics in general were virtually dead. Few people were collecting/saving comics at this time. The odds of this book having many other HG copies floating around is far, far less than the likelihood of additional HG SA copies of early FFs, Spiderman, Hulk, Daredevil, that were published in 1961-1964. We're literally talking two very different generations of comic book collectors.

 

With respect to the Showcase, the 9.4 copy, which Metro owns, is not newly certified unless you know of a new one not reflected in the Nov census. The 9.6, owned by Motor City, was graded last June. I do believe the 9.0 is fairly recent as I don't recall seeing that one before.

[mrwoogieman]

I know a few people, and I know of more people who know a few more people, who are aghast at the thought of mailing their high grade books to CGC. They simply wouldn't dream of letting them out of their sight, to make a long trip down to FL, to be handled by some unknown number of fumbling dolts, to be put through some mechanical process whereby the book could be trashed and to get back their comic in a container that prevents them from seeing if it's even the same book they sent in at all.

 

There are a lot of people who aren't so trusting of their precious items being handled and cared for as the owner would do. And that's just the way it is...

[esquirecomics]

Any book worth more than $10k I would personally take to CGC and wait for it to be graded.

[arexcrooke]

Any book worth more than $10k I would personally take to CGC and wait for it to be graded.

Or walk it through with them. Then you could see if that "graded staircase" that Hammer is always talking about actually exists.

[jimm94]

Agreed, not because I don't trust CGC, but rather because I would not trust the safety of the book in transit. Also, if I ever bought a book that expensive, I would pick it up from the seller and complete the deal in person. The extra time and expense of airfare would be worth it, IMO.

 

EDIT - typos

[esquirecomics]

Agreed, but not because I don't trust CGC, but rather because I would not trust the safety of the book in transit. Also, I ever bought a book that expensive, I would pick it up from the seller and complete the deal in person. The extra time and expense of airfare would be worth it, IMO.

 

[jimm94]

Any book worth more than $10k I would personally take to CGC and wait for it to be graded.

Or walk it through with them. Then you could see if that "graded staircase" that Hammer is always talking about actually exists.

 

CGC does not allow submitters to be present as their books are being graded. In fact, I don't think you really get to witness any actual grading for very long (if at all) if you are an individual fortunate enough to receive a tour of their facility.

[arexcrooke]

Any book worth more than $10k I would personally take to CGC and wait for it to be graded.

Or walk it through with them. Then you could see if that "graded staircase" that Hammer is always talking about actually exists.

 

CGC does not allow submitters to be present as their books are being graded. In fact, I don't think you really get to witness any actual grading for very long (if at all) if you are an individual fortunate enough to receive a tour of their facility.

It was just a little bit of a joke Jim. I didnt figure that you could actually walk with the book while it was getting graded.