Are recession fears inflated? Time for folks to double-down in GOLD ...aka GA comics! 2 2

[Cat-Man_America]

Dealers and collectors non-biased apolitical opinions/viewpoints welcome! PS: This is NOT a sales thread...

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

People who hit big paydays have got to be seeking other ports in the storm besides the stock market 

[sagii]

[sagii]

[Point Five]

My investment advisor told me to put EVERYTHING into clown-shooting-gorilla-in-the-face covers. So far this is the only one I've found. 
 

[MattTheDuck]

On 8/5/2024 at 6:06 PM, Point Five said:

My investment advisor told me to put EVERYTHING into clown-shooting-gorilla-in-the-face covers. So far this is the only one I've found

It's in fact the only one, so should make a good investment.  You get a John Wayne Gacy autograph to go with it, and I think you're set for life.

[Bookery]

You still need to obtain the full story sequence.

Clown kills gorilla, then embraces girlfriend to live happily-ever-after.  But gorilla's brother seeks revenge, now armed with his own gun.  He kidnaps clown's girlfriend to lure him into trap, where he dispatches clown and vengeance is satisfied.

 

Revenge is short-lived, however, as now Clown's brother retaliates by shooting gorilla in face (again) and ignites whole Hatfield-McCoy type extended-family Gorilla-Clown feud that continues to this day.

 

Edited August 6 by Bookery

[LowGradeBronze]

I always reach for a stack of comics in times of uncertainty....

[LowGradeBronze]

On 8/6/2024 at 2:06 AM, Point Five said:

My investment advisor told me to put EVERYTHING into clown-shooting-gorilla-in-the-face covers. So far this is the only one I've found. 
 

She's saying: Why do all my dates end up like this?......

[tth2]

On 8/6/2024 at 8:08 PM, Bookery said:

You still need to obtain the full story sequence.

Clown kills gorilla, then embraces girlfriend to live happily-ever-after.  But gorilla's brother seeks revenge, now armed with his own gun.  He kidnaps clown's girlfriend to lure him into trap, where he dispatches clown and vengeance is satisfied.

 

Revenge is short-lived, however, as now Clown's brother retaliates by shooting gorilla in face (again) and ignites whole Hatfield-McCoy type extended-family Gorilla-Clown feud that continues to this day.

 

 Post of the year! 

[Crowzilla]

[jimbo_7071]

I don't see a recession as something to fear. The economy is cyclical; recessions are going to occur every so often. We are just about due for one, but I don't know whether it'll happen this year or next year or the year after.

Even though the politicians try to take credit for boom times and blame others for recessions, that's all silliness for the most part. The economy is driven by forces over which political entities have very little control. Recessions are inevitable—that's why you keep a little money set aside even during the best of times instead of blowing every penny.

[Robot Man]

On 8/6/2024 at 8:37 AM, jimbo_7071 said:

I don't see a recession as something to fear. The economy is cyclical; recessions are going to occur every so often. We are just about due for one, but I don't know whether it'll happen this year or next year or the year after.

Even though the politicians try to take credit for boom times and blame others for recessions, that's all silliness for the most part. The economy is driven by forces over which political entities have very little control. Recessions are inevitable—that's why you keep a little money set aside even during the best of times instead of blowing every penny.

All very true.

Frankly, I see the GA market at the moment as a bit stagnant from the places I generally frequent. I don’t know much about the big auction houses.

Shows seem a little weak locally in attendence by vintage comic buyers. There were a lot fewer folks I usually see at Torpedo. I didn’t go to SDCC so I can’t comment on it. Most of the local shows seem to have some buyers but they are VERY selective. Usually looking for very specific books.

I, myself have fallen into that group. I either have, have had or are unwilling to pay the prices things are going for in the areas I collect.

I have noticed the quality and quantity of better GA material on EBay really slipping. Even these boards seem a little slim on affordable and cool GA books.

Prices took a huge surge and are now slipping and stabilizing. I really don’t blame the economy as much for it, as I am a believer that even if a bit skeptical, the economy is basically still very solid. 

[jimbo_7071]

On 8/6/2024 at 1:01 PM, Robot Man said:

All very true.

Frankly, I see the GA market at the moment as a bit stagnant from the places I generally frequent. I don’t know much about the big auction houses.

Shows seem a little weak locally in attendence by vintage comic buyers. There were a lot fewer folks I usually see at Torpedo. I didn’t go to SDCC so I can’t comment on it. Most of the local shows seem to have some buyers but they are VERY selective. Usually looking for very specific books.

I, myself have fallen into that group. I either have, have had or are unwilling to pay the prices things are going for in the areas I collect.

I have noticed the quality and quantity of better GA material on EBay really slipping. Even these boards seem a little slim on affordable and cool GA books.

Prices took a huge surge and are now slipping and stabilizing. I really don’t blame the economy as much for it, as I am a believer that even if a bit skeptical, the economy is basically still very solid. 

Those things you mention could be related to the economy, but I also think that the number of guys aging out of the hobby is probably exceeding the number of guys entering. That's a very slow process, but it could still have an impact.

[thehumantorch]

I'm just continue to buy what I like and not worry about the noise.  It's worked for 50 years.

[Professor K]

On 8/6/2024 at 1:38 PM, jimbo_7071 said:

Those things you mention could be related to the economy, but I also think that the number of guys aging out of the hobby is probably exceeding the number of guys entering. That's a very slow process, but it could still have an impact.

Good point. I really don't know if GA  collectors are aging out (quiting or dying) at a faster rate than people are getting into them. I think most new GA collectors are former SA/BA superhero collectors , and of course investor and flipper types. 

[bc]

On 8/6/2024 at 4:18 PM, Professor K said:

Good point. I really don't know if GA  collectors are aging out (quiting or dying) at a faster rate than people are getting into them. I think most new GA collectors are former SA/BA superhero collectors , and of course investor and flipper types. 

-bc

[Telegan]

On 8/6/2024 at 3:18 PM, Professor K said:

Good point. I really don't know if GA  collectors are aging out (quiting or dying) at a faster rate than people are getting into them. I think most new GA collectors are former SA/BA superhero collectors , and of course investor and flipper types. 

 

This is what I've been thinking.  A lot of this run-up is in part due to younger or "other" collectors jumping into and finding some interest in the GA.  I know that's how I got into it seriously maybe 3-5 or so years ago.  That, and I was frustrated with the modern comic book market that I had returned to (kind of similar to when I left it in the 90s).  GA provided an entirely new kind of collecting for me.  A lot of what we're seeing is probably some manipulation, investing, and flipping, but that's everywhere.  I hope a good chunk of it is people showing some interest in some unique comics.

[sfcityduck]

On 8/6/2024 at 10:01 AM, Robot Man said:

 

Prices took a huge surge and are now slipping and stabilizing. I really don’t blame the economy as much for it, as I am a believer that even if a bit skeptical, the economy is basically still very solid. 

Prices across the board (not just GA) took a huge surge because people during COVID had a lot of extra cash and a need for stay at home entertainment and computer diversions to replace travel etc. That bubble has been correcting for a while. The lesson I take is that for many buyers comics are an outlet for spare cash, not something that they really want to sacrifice their quality of life for. My evidence for the COVID bubble - Heritage auctions of GS X-MEN CGC 9.0:

9/1/2019 - white - $2,880 (baseline)

11/16/2020 - white - $3,840 (+33%)

7/4/2021 - ow/w - $9,600 (+233%)

7/4/2022 - white - $8,100 (+181%)

9/5/2023 - ow/w - $6,133 (+112%%)

7/16/2024 - ow/w - $4,800 (+66%)

If you are a long time holder, the 2019 to 2024 period has been a good one with a 66% appreciation (a nifty 13+% per year).

But, if you bought during COVID from 2021 to 2023, its been a blood bath and the bubble has burst. Why? I think because folks aren't feeling the COVID need to pay.

So, yeah, a recession might well have an effect. But I don't think we're going into a recession. This was a few days of stock drop (mostly for reasons that are identifiable) followed now by gains. And the result of this bump in the road there is going to be an interest rate drop. So I'm not feeling any fear for the economy in the long run. Still, I don't think we'll see another broad comic bubble like happened during COVID. That was insanity.

Edited August 7 by sfcityduck

[atomised]

On 8/6/2024 at 10:38 AM, jimbo_7071 said:

Those things you mention could be related to the economy, but I also think that the number of guys aging out of the hobby is probably exceeding the number of guys entering. That's a very slow process, but it could still have an impact.

I think you're right.  The fact that we're actually corresponding on a bulletin board speaks volumes.  I think most young people wouldn't even know what this is, it's a relic from a way of communicating that is now decades old.  I personally love it, but I'm also old.  The vast majority of the hobby has moved to IG and other social media platforms.  A couple years ago I would routinely buy big books off the boards, now I basically check out of habit but rarely pick up anything.  I open IG and one guy after the next is selling a Hulk 1, a AF 15 or some great GA books at prices that are fair.  We're dying here together, and I'm ok to go down on this ship.