Are recession fears inflated? Time for folks to double-down in GOLD ...aka GA comics! 2 2

[Robot Man]

Personally, I just wouldn’t consider a big purchase off of IG or most other of these sites. Unless they are graded and I know the seller. A lot of these posts seem rushed and a bit sloppy.

Now, I am primarily a raw buyer. I need a real description, grade and proper photos as well as terms that include a solid return condition just in case. The more expensive the book, the more I need this.

Sites like these boards provide this. Generally, sellers here are reputable and well known. The community here does a very good job of policing itself.

Some may call this “archaic” or “old school”, but as an “old guy”, I long ago learned all about a fool and his money…

[Mmehdy]

 Recession will result in a slowdown of all comic book markets  and all markets at least initially. The real question is how long? Here is my take:

You cannot go back in time and compare the length in the 70's,80's and even 2000  recessions because everything has increased in term of information and speed that is transmitted instantly all over the world. Hence Global reaction time and adjustment time. If repair  done quick and fast, it will be sharper but quicker.

We do have however unique conditions in 2024 with record governments world wide debt, lead by the USA admitted by the US Treasury at $35.06 T and growing every minute. How long can they kick the can down the road is the real question  but at some point spending cannot exceed revenues forever and when that day comes all bets are off on any type of time estimate of recovery. The second is the effect of other nations on the US economy has never been greater on our own. The  decreased price of widgets in China can hit all the way to the SP500. Less control, especially by the Fed, which can only use interest rates as its weapon. The biggest theat to the USA is the taking down of the dollar as the "currency" which is being county by county  or called the "BRICS"...they are coming like a freight train...they just added Saudi, UAE, Iran and Argentina Jan 2024. That is a game changer which will strip the FED of world wide power...when you get a chance look it up,do not put your head in the sand.

How can you protect yourself....2024...diversity........with a leaning towards hard assets. Real Estate, Comic books, Coin (especially Gold), something that does have value and tangible, that exists other than a piece of stock paper or dollar. The Dollar, then the Stock will get hit first.

 This recession they are taking about happening in early 2025....remember the market things in terms of 6 months in advance will happen, ups and downs...what you need to do is anticipate.....rather than react after its too late.

[thehumantorch]

On 8/7/2024 at 10:14 AM, Mmehdy said:

 Recession will result in a slowdown of all comic book markets  and all markets at least initially. The real question is how long? Here is my take:

You cannot go back in time and compare the length in the 70's,80's and even 2000  recessions because everything has increased in term of information and speed that is transmitted instantly all over the world. Hence Global reaction time and adjustment time. If repair  done quick and fast, it will be sharper but quicker.

We do have however unique conditions in 2024 with record governments world wide debt, lead by the USA admitted by the US Treasury at $35.06 T and growing every minute. How long can they kick the can down the road is the real question  but at some point spending cannot exceed revenues forever and when that day comes all bets are off on any type of time estimate of recovery. The second is the effect of other nations on the US economy has never been greater on our own. The  decreased price of widgets in China can hit all the way to the SP500. Less control, especially by the Fed, which can only use interest rates as its weapon. The biggest theat to the USA is the taking down of the dollar as the "currency" which is being county by county  or called the "BRICS"...they are coming like a freight train...they just added Saudi, UAE, Iran and Argentina Jan 2024. That is a game changer which will strip the FED of world wide power...when you get a chance look it up,do not put your head in the sand.

How can you protect yourself....2024...diversity........with a leaning towards hard assets. Real Estate, Comic books, Coin (especially Gold), something that does have value and tangible, that exists other than a piece of stock paper or dollar. The Dollar, then the Stock will get hit first.

 This recession they are taking about happening in early 2025....remember the market things in terms of 6 months in advance will happen, ups and downs...what you need to do is anticipate.....rather than react after its too late.

Know Mitch, when you first started posting here your posts were tough to read with lots of grammatical and spelling errors and a bit of rambling but now they’re much tighter and well written and are a pleasure to read.

[Professor K]

On 8/7/2024 at 2:37 AM, atomised said:

I think you're right.  The fact that we're actually corresponding on a bulletin board speaks volumes.  I think most young people wouldn't even know what this is, it's a relic from a way of communicating that is now decades old.  I personally love it, but I'm also old.  The vast majority of the hobby has moved to IG and other social media platforms.  A couple years ago I would routinely buy big books off the boards, now I basically check out of habit but rarely pick up anything.  I open IG and one guy after the next is selling a Hulk 1, a AF 15 or some great GA books at prices that are fair.  We're dying here together, and I'm ok to go down on this ship.

I'm way too long winded to talk comics on any of those sites. I'm not sure why. I guess it all started back when I was a kid.................

[batman_fan]

Zero concerns with GA prices going down and that won't change until right before I start selling my dupes at which point watch for a huge market crash

[LearnedHand]

On 8/7/2024 at 2:37 AM, atomised said:

I think you're right.  The fact that we're actually corresponding on a bulletin board speaks volumes.  I think most young people wouldn't even know what this is, it's a relic from a way of communicating that is now decades old.  I personally love it, but I'm also old.  The vast majority of the hobby has moved to IG and other social media platforms.  A couple years ago I would routinely buy big books off the boards, now I basically check out of habit but rarely pick up anything.  I open IG and one guy after the next is selling a Hulk 1, a AF 15 or some great GA books at prices that are fair.  We're dying here together, and I'm ok to go down on this ship.

I think you and sfcityduck are touching on another issue - one I’ve commented on in my Overstreet market reports a few times.  Warning - this is not a popular observation.  

If we measure a healthy hobby by reported sale prices, then yes, the hobby is healthy. But this is also a bit misleading.  A fundamental measure of a healthy collectibles hobby is whether the number of enthusiasts and participants, who are actually interested in and wanting to collect the material, is expanding.  

Go to almost any comic book show and those interested in buying books to read or fill in their runs are 50+ years old.  The children they drag along are overwhelming not interested in collecting comic books - and it’s no secret that the hobby is not being backfilled by young collectors at a rate to even sustain current or past collector levels. Of course, you’ll also find people in their 20s and 30s at shows, on Instagram, etc., but they generally are looking for slabs of spec books.

As a generalization and in super broad strokes, people who grew up before the slab will identify with the characters and stories, and appreciate and collect comic books.  Those that came into the hobby after the advent of the slab have little connection to all the creativity that went into the books and the tactile aspects (holding the book, smelling it, flipping its pages, etc) - all of which create a connection or bond with the material.  This tracks well with the emergence of the commodity mindset that mushroomed soon after the emergence of the slab where, understandably, it’s all about the cover, the grade, and speculation.  

One litmus test is talking to collectors or dealers. Those that grew up reading the books will primarily talk about a story arc, a particular artist, etc.  Those that have come into the hobby over the past 20 years talk almost exclusively about the grade, PQ, last reported sale price, etc.   And it’s easy to conflate these two hobby strains.  I have several friends who entered the hobby over the past 10-15 years and they revere their AF15s and Detective 33s.  But listen closely and none of it is about how they finally acquired the first appearance of their favorite character to go with their ASM comic books, or the importance of the Batman’s first published origin because it explains so much of the character’s mythos … no, it’s all about - it’s a keeper (like a chunk of gold) because it’ll pay for [fill in the blank] one day.  

So yes, there’s definitely a healthy hobby, if by “hobby” we mean a healthy commodities market where the reported record high sales prices, brought primarily by buy-sell speculators (who likely have no more interest in or connection to the slabbed book than a stock share), are the measure of health.  So long as these folks don’t decide to move on to some other commodity, then by this measure, expect the hobby to remain healthy.  And if the measure of a healthy hobby is a growing number of enthusiasts and participants, who actually want to collect comic books, well … 

 

Edited August 10 by LearnedHand

[Ryan.]

On 8/10/2024 at 10:42 AM, LearnedHand said:

I think you and sfcityduck are touching on another issue - one I’ve commented on in my Overstreet market reports a few times.  Warning - this is not a popular observation.  

If we measure a healthy hobby by reported sale prices, then yes, the hobby is healthy. But this is also a bit misleading.  A fundamental measure of a healthy collectibles hobby is whether the number of enthusiasts and participants, who are actually interested in and wanting to collect the material, is expanding.  

Go to almost any comic book show and those interested in buying books to read or fill in their runs are 50+ years old.  The children they drag along are overwhelming not interested in collecting comic books - and it’s no secret that the hobby is not being backfilled by young collectors at a rate to even sustain current or past collector levels. Of course, you’ll also find people in their 20s and 30s at shows, on Instagram, etc., but they generally are looking for slabs of spec books.

As a generalization and in super broad strokes, people who grew up before the slab will identify with the characters and stories, and appreciate and collect comic books.  Those that came into the hobby after the advent of the slab have little connection to all the creativity that went into the books and the tactile aspects (holding the book, smelling it, flipping its pages, etc) - all of which create a connection or bond with the material.  This tracks well with the emergence of the commodity mindset that mushroomed soon after the emergence of the slab where, understandably, it’s all about the cover, the grade, and speculation.  

One litmus test is talking to collectors or dealers. Those that grew up reading the books will primarily talk about a story arc, a particular artist, etc.  Those that have come into the hobby over the past 20 years talk almost exclusively about the grade, PQ, last reported sale price, etc.   And it’s easy to conflate these two hobby strains.  I have several friends who entered the hobby over the past 10-15 years and they revere their AF15s and Detective 33s.  But listen closely and none of it is about how they finally acquired the first appearance of their favorite character to go with their ASM comic books, or the importance of the Batman’s first published origin because it explains so much of the character’s mythos … no, it’s all about - it’s a keeper (like a chunk of gold) because it’ll pay for [fill in the blank] one day.  

So yes, there’s definitely a healthy hobby, if by “hobby” we mean a healthy commodities market where the reported record high sales prices, brought primarily by buy-sell speculators (who likely have no more interest in or connection to the slabbed book than a stock share), are the measure of health.  So long as these folks don’t decide to move on to some other commodity, then by this measure, expect the hobby to remain healthy.  And if the measure of a healthy hobby is a growing number of enthusiasts and participants, who actually want to collect comic books, well … 

 

This analysis is a little too either/or for me. A collector doesn't have to either collect comics out of a personal connection or as a commodity. Plenty of people are both, neither and everything in between. I pre-order new comics and buy new TPBs, mostly indy books, specifically to read and not to spec on. I also buy Golden Age slabs just for their covers. I also collect Copper stuff like TMNT and the Crow because I grew up with it and just plain like it. I also collect art, figures, cards and whatever else strikes my interest for many reasons, some purely monetary. Collectors collect. I'm not sure the why of it is so easily discernable. 

Edited August 10 by Ryan.

[MAY1979]

On 8/6/2024 at 6:52 PM, sfcityduck said:

Prices across the board (not just GA) took a huge surge because people during COVID had a lot of extra cash and a need for stay at home entertainment and computer diversions to replace travel etc. That bubble has been correcting for a while. The lesson I take is that for many buyers comics are an outlet for spare cash, not something that they really want to sacrifice their quality of life for. My evidence for the COVID bubble - Heritage auctions of GS X-MEN CGC 9.0:

9/1/2019 - white - $2,880 (baseline)

11/16/2020 - white - $3,840 (+33%)

7/4/2021 - ow/w - $9,600 (+233%)

7/4/2022 - white - $8,100 (+181%)

9/5/2023 - ow/w - $6,133 (+112%%)

7/16/2024 - ow/w - $4,800 (+66%)

If you are a long time holder, the 2019 to 2024 period has been a good one with a 66% appreciation (a nifty 13+% per year).

But, if you bought during COVID from 2021 to 2023, its been a blood bath and the bubble has burst. Why? I think because folks aren't feeling the COVID need to pay.

So, yeah, a recession might well have an effect. But I don't think we're going into a recession. This was a few days of stock drop (mostly for reasons that are identifiable) followed now by gains. And the result of this bump in the road there is going to be an interest rate drop. So I'm not feeling any fear for the economy in the long run. Still, I don't think we'll see another broad comic bubble like happened during COVID. That was insanity.

If accounting for inflation in a generic manner the gap between 2019 and 2024 on that book is less. 

 

Edited August 10 by MAR1979

[buttock]

On 8/10/2024 at 8:42 AM, LearnedHand said:

I think you and sfcityduck are touching on another issue - one I’ve commented on in my Overstreet market reports a few times.  Warning - this is not a popular observation.  

If we measure a healthy hobby by reported sale prices, then yes, the hobby is healthy. But this is also a bit misleading.  A fundamental measure of a healthy collectibles hobby is whether the number of enthusiasts and participants, who are actually interested in and wanting to collect the material, is expanding.  

Go to almost any comic book show and those interested in buying books to read or fill in their runs are 50+ years old.  The children they drag along are overwhelming not interested in collecting comic books - and it’s no secret that the hobby is not being backfilled by young collectors at a rate to even sustain current or past collector levels. Of course, you’ll also find people in their 20s and 30s at shows, on Instagram, etc., but they generally are looking for slabs of spec books.

As a generalization and in super broad strokes, people who grew up before the slab will identify with the characters and stories, and appreciate and collect comic books.  Those that came into the hobby after the advent of the slab have little connection to all the creativity that went into the books and the tactile aspects (holding the book, smelling it, flipping its pages, etc) - all of which create a connection or bond with the material.  This tracks well with the emergence of the commodity mindset that mushroomed soon after the emergence of the slab where, understandably, it’s all about the cover, the grade, and speculation.  

One litmus test is talking to collectors or dealers. Those that grew up reading the books will primarily talk about a story arc, a particular artist, etc.  Those that have come into the hobby over the past 20 years talk almost exclusively about the grade, PQ, last reported sale price, etc.   And it’s easy to conflate these two hobby strains.  I have several friends who entered the hobby over the past 10-15 years and they revere their AF15s and Detective 33s.  But listen closely and none of it is about how they finally acquired the first appearance of their favorite character to go with their ASM comic books, or the importance of the Batman’s first published origin because it explains so much of the character’s mythos … no, it’s all about - it’s a keeper (like a chunk of gold) because it’ll pay for [fill in the blank] one day.  

So yes, there’s definitely a healthy hobby, if by “hobby” we mean a healthy commodities market where the reported record high sales prices, brought primarily by buy-sell speculators (who likely have no more interest in or connection to the slabbed book than a stock share), are the measure of health.  So long as these folks don’t decide to move on to some other commodity, then by this measure, expect the hobby to remain healthy.  And if the measure of a healthy hobby is a growing number of enthusiasts and participants, who actually want to collect comic books, well … 

 

This just isn't true.  There's a huge number of young dealers, collectors, enthusiasts.  If you don't see that then you're just not looking.  I went back to Heroes last year for the first time in over a decade and most of the local dealers were people I had never seen before and under 50.  Social media collecting, which is a huge portion of the market, is mostly people in their 30s or younger.  

If you go to shows and go to the same dealers tables year after year,  you're only going to see people getting older.  But if you look around you'll see it isn't the case on the whole.

Not to mention collecting expensive vintage books is by definition something that typically happens later in life when people have discretionary income.  I would imagine in the 70s the demographic of your average collector looked about the same as it does now.  It's like complaining that 401ks aren't being funded by teenagers.    

[adamstrange]

On 8/10/2024 at 3:43 PM, buttock said:

This just isn't true.  There's a huge number of young dealers, collectors, enthusiasts.  If you don't see that then you're just not looking.  I went back to Heroes last year for the first time in over a decade and most of the local dealers were people I had never seen before and under 50.  Social media collecting, which is a huge portion of the market, is mostly people in their 30s or younger.  

If you go to shows and go to the same dealers tables year after year,  you're only going to see people getting older.  But if you look around you'll see it isn't the case on the whole.

Not to mention collecting expensive vintage books is by definition something that typically happens later in life when people have discretionary income.  I would imagine in the 70s the demographic of your average collector looked about the same as it does now.  It's like complaining that 401ks aren't being funded by teenagers.    

Symphony Orchestras consistently complained in the 70s/80s that their patrons were primarily 50+ and they had to attract younger supporters.  What history has shown is that their supporters were always 50+ and remain 50+ because you have to get a point in life where you have sufficient income, time, desire for status, and more sophisticated taste to make you vulnerable to their pleas.

[fifties]

Personally I really don't care WHAT the GA comic book market does, as I buy to read and keep.  And when I eventually kick the bucket, it won't matter to me then either.  

[tth2]

On 8/11/2024 at 3:52 AM, adamstrange said:

Symphony Orchestras consistently complained in the 70s/80s that their patrons were primarily 50+ and they had to attract younger supporters.  What history has shown is that their supporters were always 50+ and remain 50+ because you have to get a point in life where you have sufficient income, time, desire for status, and more sophisticated taste to make you vulnerable to their pleas.

Maybe even more so today, because there's nothing worse than seeing a bunch of rock stars in their 70s/80s still trying to rock out.   

[thehumantorch]

On 8/10/2024 at 11:04 PM, tth2 said:

Maybe even more so today, because there's nothing worse than seeing a bunch of rock stars in their 70s/80s still trying to rock out.   

I actually love that some old rock stars are still performing.  I suspect most of them are doing it because they love playing and performing and love making music.

[Professor K]

On 8/10/2024 at 3:52 PM, adamstrange said:

Symphony Orchestras consistently complained in the 70s/80s that their patrons were primarily 50+ and they had to attract younger supporters.  What history has shown is that their supporters were always 50+ and remain 50+ because you have to get a point in life where you have sufficient income, time, desire for status, and more sophisticated taste to make you vulnerable to their pleas.

I'm over 50 and don't have any of that. What am I doing wrong? 

[adamstrange]

On 8/11/2024 at 1:04 AM, tth2 said:

Maybe even more so today, because there's nothing worse than seeing a bunch of rock stars in their 70s/80s still trying to rock out.   

Don't trust anyone over 30 80!

[Robot Man]

On 8/10/2024 at 10:04 PM, tth2 said:

Maybe even more so today, because there's nothing worse than seeing a bunch of rock stars in their 70s/80s still trying to rock out.   

Maybe true in many cases. But there are exceptions. The Stones, McCartney and Clapton are notable exceptions. They can still bring it strong and continually sell out venues to fans of all ages.

[Robot Man]

On 8/11/2024 at 12:22 AM, adamstrange said:

Don't trust anyone over 30 80!

I can only think on maybe one hand of people I trust…

[tth2]

On 8/11/2024 at 1:16 PM, thehumantorch said:

On 8/11/2024 at 1:04 PM, tth2 said:

Maybe even more so today, because there's nothing worse than seeing a bunch of rock stars in their 70s/80s still trying to rock out.   

I actually love that some old rock stars are still performing.  I suspect most of them are doing it because they love playing and performing and love making music.

I know I'm in a minority, but I believe that rock music is inherently the music of youth.  It's always been that way from its inception.  Classical music was for old people.  Jazz/big band/tin pan alley were for middle-aged people.  There was never anything rebellious about those forms of music.  No tin pan alley singer ever protested the Korean War or the Vietnam War or raged against the inequities of the world.  Rock was always about rebellion by young people.

There's just something inherently wrong with a bunch of balding, graying, paunchy guys (and gals) playing rock music, even when their audience are also balding, graying and paunchy.  That's not rock 'n' roll.

[tth2]

On 8/11/2024 at 3:22 PM, adamstrange said:

On 8/11/2024 at 1:04 PM, tth2 said:

Maybe even more so today, because there's nothing worse than seeing a bunch of rock stars in their 70s/80s still trying to rock out.   

Don't trust anyone over 30 80!

The Who should change their lyrics to "Hope I retire before I get old".

[tth2]

On 8/11/2024 at 10:41 PM, Robot Man said:

On 8/11/2024 at 1:04 PM, tth2 said:

Maybe even more so today, because there's nothing worse than seeing a bunch of rock stars in their 70s/80s still trying to rock out.   

Maybe true in many cases. But there are exceptions. The Stones, McCartney and Clapton are notable exceptions. They can still bring it strong and continually sell out venues to fans of all ages.

We'll have to agree to disagree.  I think 80-year old Mick still trying to do his patented moves and singing that he can't get no satisfaction is just absurd and embarrassing.