zhamlau

So long and short a pull back not crash. Still up over 2013-2015 prices but decent chance we have seen the top end of prices for all grades across the board for the foreseeable future. Likely a pull back, likely double digit. Timeline for these events to occur is fluid however but the pull back process will occur at some point in the future.

Yeah, except you could have made a similar argument about almost every market that did eventually crash. Bubbles, by definition, suck in a lot of people and so you get repeat high prices - for a while - that seem to establish a new baseline level, but, in the end, turn out not to be a new, permanent plateau of prosperity after all. I don't think you can tell much from one sale to another. This is something we'll have to look back at, after a sufficient passage of time and after we see a full cycle, to make any kind of definitive determination. I do know that, at these prices, if I had an AF #15, I'd be bailing faster than you can yell "Titanic!" $261K for an 8.0 (or even $235K)? Are you kidding me? Sell, Mortimer, Sell! These prices make Ditko Spidey original art look cheap (not saying that one is inherently better than the other, but, I'd take a comparably priced Ditko ASM splash or 3 A/A+ Ditko ASM panel pages over an AF 15 8.0 any day of the week and twice on Sunday). Using that belief, do you think a crash where say 75% of its value disappears in a year? That all grades drop back to pre 2015 prices? Like if you think a crash is coming, how far will it fall? Do you think these 8.0's will be 73k again in foreseeable future? Thats what the last sale was on GPA back in 2013.

Ops, wrong reply lol. Thought you asking about what rate you pay.

Serious question. Does the market really put value on "CVA distinction"? I had never heard about this until recently, and I don't believe I've seen any dealer other than ComicLink play it up as something worth caring about. I actually just bought a TTA27 5.0 with a CVA tag. I got it for 3100. A 4.5 sold for 3000 just a few months back, and a 6.0 sold for 4800 in the same time. I don't know if either had CVA but considering how uncommon it is to see i sorta doubt it. Top ten book of a major marvel silver-age key first appearance of a character with a successful movie franchise....book was probably under-graded and had phenomenal eye appeal with that CVA sticker....i got it for same price as a lower grade copy without it in an auction. Small sample size yes, but in my case that CVA tag seems to have done absolutely nothing at all for the value. Either I stole this, or that CVA is just a square blue distraction (in this case anyway).

It's interesting when you look at the 8.0 sales, you can really see that spike in value. No recorded sales of copies for 4 years between 2013 and 2017 (On GPA anyway), but for the 5-6 years previous the book sold between 55-85k range. Flash forward to now, and we are looking at the book going high at 260k and "low" at 235k if i'm reading this correctly. There were few sales back then as there are now, but the floor is so much higher now and the ceiling it seems is proportionally much lower. This book sold for back then a fraction of what it sells for now, with huge swings in price in the same year. But now it's more like a highly valued smaller price window commodity. I would almost argue that's a good sign for the book. That not only are these high prices repeatable, but if multiple copies hit the market the price softens around 10% due to that lack of final tier competition for it. The buying pool is probably exponentially larger for every 10% in price you drop because at the end of the day 260k and 235k really are different prices and that extra 25k really will be a bridge to far for multiple collectors. I sometimes think people forget dropping that 10-20% you are dealing with a completely different set of end bidders/buyers. That's why I never liked the whole "crash" concept. That implies its one or two guys pushing all of this. I tend to think once the market is established and prices are repeated/accepted everyone sorta finds their spot in the pecking order. That because you topped out the top 5-10% of buyers on a book, doesn't mean the next few copies in grade sell for fractions. They sell for the top potential bid value of that next tier of collectors in that next tier of financial capability. Its not like there are 2-3 guys who decided this book is worth 250k range, and when they stop the next group only think its worth 70k so the 4th copy sells a pittance. Anyway, rambling on I guess. Ill be interested to see what a 4th in grade copy sells for this year, see how stable the price really. Id predict next copy sells for 225-230k

Man, how much could they get for that rare, unused, version of the cover? Haha, dont know where to laugh or cry at that. "Alternate" covers....god...

Hmm...long time member 3000+ posts....im gonna put the over/under on tells looking to buy at....3....

Hopefully those grading credits are for any caliber book, even walkthrough only books like AF15.

From the cost to buy. Do you really think people will stop being passionate about this book and turn on current market values? Like a book that was selling for 50k will sit for 30k a few weeks or months later cause everyone's decided its a bad price? I just don't see it. Prices would need to more than double from current rates now to even begin to think that way, and If its this constant climb upwards like we have seen over the last 8 months i would imagine it would like look more a price increase freeze rather than some massive drop.

Passion=Competition Competition=Value Look at these topics and see the pure energy this book generates on multiple often opposing fronts. Stuff like this is why ill never discount this book or its impact. This is special, you dont see this with Avengers 1 or BB28. I see this arguement and i wonder where the lack of competition for this book is going to come from to drive its prices down substantially.

When you look at the interest and wild swings of scope and emotion ANY thread about AF15 bring it really enforces one thought to me: This book is legend. Its sheer existence and CGC footprint brings up incredible passions and disagreements. What other comic book really has ever done that? What other collectable in general. That tells me this is something special and probably why none of the normal pricing/supply-demand rules apply that much.

I think what would be interesting would be to compare top 4 copies of each book. That should work out to the 8-9.2's for Tec and 8-9.0 for Action and the 9.6's for AF15. In a case like that the number of lesser copies from behind would mean very little. They are the top 4, the elite condition copies. The buyers for all of these books are probably the same on all 3. What would those sell for compared to each other? The grades themselves almost becoming meaningless at that point, as well as the copy numbers behind them, all things would be as close to equal as possible. If you own any of the 4 for Action or Tec you will never be able to upgrade realistically. When it pops up you are making your end state final collection play. Same for the 9.6's for AF 15. That is your end state book for your perm collection. What would than those books sell for? Would action really outduel af15 in that case? like would a 9.6 sell for the same as one of the 9.0 actions? or a 9.2 tec? Would it be in the same range? That will be interesting to see because eventually ONE of those 9.6's will shake loose.

Books like Overstreet I think provide that level of insight and completeness of info that you just don't really get in the online experience. Yeah if you look long enough all the facts are web accessible sure, but going online for data tends to lead you to just find that ONE factoid you want and blocks out the rest. Having all the knowledge there for you to wander across or providing that additional layer of tangent info you pick up researching "Fact A", it leads to greater understanding (in my eyes anyway) of the subject you're studying.

+1 A much sounder and more thorough analysis and one which I would certainly have no problem agreeing with once you take into account the International box office receipts. Thank you. To be honest its really just the same analysis as before I just went into borderline painful detail (what I sometimes feel when i read some of my writing lol) instead of the previous broad strokes on the 2nd pass. I forget sometimes you can't always short hand RCA's to executive bullet points so I tend to just high level stuff. If you want to get your point across sometimes online sometimes you need to straddle that fine line between being too short where you leave a lot of gaps cause you're in the clouds, but not to long to be pedantic.

General rule of thumb is if Manning signed it, he actually worked directly on it (usually penciling, i think Mike Royer was inker on all of his?)

So the SA started with a restaurant giveaway? The second age of the Superhero? Man, the world needs a sarcasm font....

How does it compare to other movies this time of year? July is a massive vacation months. You also have Disney con going on last weekend in Anaheim and San Diego this weekend. Those two cons alone will pull millions out of the economy. Add in vacationing families and I can see a sudden drop. I could be wrong but we're in full summer vacation mode now as a family. Well you both have points. The logic is simple you are looking at raw numbers but the motivations behind those numbers are where the (in my opinion) story shifts. 1. With no headwind in an uncontested market getting unrelenting positive media coverage In a flat block-buster free month, the single best DCU movie to date managed to open at expectations and dropped off to a lower end percentage for week two based on past blockbuster performance. With good if somewhat dismissive media coverage Spider-man went into the most heavily contested month of the calendar year, with unbelievable strong competition on its 2nd weeks and projected later in the month, and performed at the same level as WW to date. To me, that shows me the inherent strength of Spider-man more than WW. All things lined up for WW, it got a favorable placement and support and did well. Not game changing but very well. Spider-man went into the crucible and came out with similar performance to date. 2. I think on the back end Spider-man will do better in terms of rental and international box office. If you take a look at foreign release WW split 50/50 where as Spider-man is like 45-55 dom/for. That means Spider-man will do a solid percentage higher on foreign markets than US for seats filled. That's where Spider-man will have longer legs. Its much more digestible to a foreign market and will wind its way through multiple viewings better internationally than WW did. Because of that SM should outduel WW at the same 6 week mark DESPITE having much higher external pressures put on it at the Box Office. And because foreign will do so well and foreign has a longer shelf life boxoffice wise I think it will start making more money on that front and collectively outperform WW. Again just my opinion but it really seems to be playing out that way. What really messes up that projection is how well Atomic Blonde does. Not sure how that gets digested yet intentionally and if it will really come to play on box office.

That's my point exactly.......started out big, but has already fallen behind Wonder Woman's much leggier movie which came in at close to $60M to crush Spidey's box office revenues of only $45M and it only took until Weekend #2 for WW to pass Spidey. I think however you're missing the point in this. It dropped 43.3 to Spider-man 61.3 yes, however that's due to a few reasons. 1. It opened lower, so the expected fall was going to be much less impactful (that a word?). It opened to 15% less revenue and fell by comparable amounts in that two week window.They are very on par when averaged out over 2 weeks. They made comparable amounts in that two week split, just one started higher than the other so when that 2nd week automatic drop occurred that number was bigger. But the net effect is the same. 2. This is a very small abstract sample size of 2 weeks when the real success of a film is based on 6 months out rentals and foreign market fleshed out and defined. Heck by that standard Spider-Man has earned 55% in 10 days of Wonder Womans total lifetime box office if you want to look at it that way. The real test comes when Spider-man is at 8 weeks out, than do compares. 3. Wonder Woman had ZERO competition in the month of June....Literally its biggest competitor for the month came out 2 weeks later....and it was the worst of the worst transformers film to date that NO one was asking for . It had zero competition for the month. The supposed tent polls it had to overcome were horrible reviewed/no hype remakes/sequels "The Mummy" and "Transformers: please make it stop" each getting in the high teens to mid 20% reviews on most Meta Sites. In comparison Spider-man in its 2nd weeks is running up against behemoth P.O.A. coming in at high 90% favorable on meta sites, a movie that would have crushed Wonder Woman had it been released the week following. That's the major reason WW is even in the conversation at this point. Heck, if you look at the rest of July its the battleground month for Blockbusters with Valerian and Atomic Blonde coming on its heels bidding for the comic book movie market dollar. Each of these movies are in the 60-80% positive review range and each with big name stars and good buzz/anticipation behind them. Spider-man will survive in a much more competitive market and in the end after rental and full box office totals are counted should easily beat DCU's single best movie.

When i take a look at weekend open versus like product, I actually think SM is kinda kicking butt. It Crushed wonder-womans opening weekend, and only feel behind GoTG2 for the summer open. Guardians was as hyped a sequel as possible and 1 was far and away so amazing it was gonna get carried to mythic status for its open. Also look at the layering of other tent poll properties around it. It had the final part of the Apes Trilogy opening the week after it stealing Thunder and eyes. As for fall off, normal fall off is like 40-60%, hell GOTG2 had like with 5% of the same drop proportions as this summer. This movie is doing well foreign and when its said and done will probably be top 5 marvel of all time. It has rewatch-ability something other films in the genre don't. This movie is doing fine box wise.

Got confirmation from the buyer, this sale was actually legit. Makes sense, price was right. I guess guy just saw how high it was and felt it was time to unload for 2-3x what he paid lol.

Thats odd.

My newest pick up: Thing 10 cover by Ron Wilson. I know he isnt as loved as others, but for my money he was the consumate Bullpen artist. His career spanned decades and he was just a solid teller of stories. Happy to have in my collection, might be a little out of place on some level but it just felt so right when i saw it in HA last session. http://www.comicartfans.com/GalleryPiece.asp?Piece=1407455&GSub=145535

Yeah, actually im pretty solid into the "Awesome" camp myself. I especially loved lifting a story element direct from a classic ditko era ASM. Respectful of the core material and engaging for new viewers.

Any reason why? the price is on target for auction values. Is this someone elses pic they seller stole?

This copy just sold for 13,999.00 Seller has 13 feedback, this legit you think?