Baker Romance 43 43

[Sqeggs]

5 minutes ago, rjpb said:

Census numbers for any book that sells for around $100 or less in VG are probably not much use (which includes most of the Actions and APCs from this era).  I'm fairly convinced that more than half of extant complete comics from this era are in VG or less, and if you look at sales, graded copies of lower grade books are a tiny fraction of all sales. 

Yeah, it's tough to get a handle on how many lower-grade raw copies there are of any GA books.  I just looked at the Heritage archives and they have sold three copies of APC 18 over the years; all copies were raw.

They've sold about (I may have missed a couple sold in mixed lots) 11 copies of Action 172 -- two graded and nine raw. 

There are currently six copies of Action 172 for sale on eBay.  Metro doesn't have a copy for sale; neither does Superworld.  Tomorrow's Treasures has two, at least one of which is also listed on eBay.

Heritage does move a lot of raw books including lower-grade or lower-value books in lots.  Metro lists a lot of beater copies of GA books. So, I think if these books really existed in the thousands, we would have seen more of them for sale.

No way we can ever nail this down, but 200 copies of Action 172 surviving is certainly possible and it could be more, although I'd be surprised if it was much more.  But I'd be surprised if more than 20 or 30 copies of APC 18 still existed; 200 copies seems way too high.

[Sqeggs]

1 hour ago, szavisca said:

APCs haven't really been valuable enough to slab until recently... I don't know if the cgc census would be meaningful on them yet.  And the books themselves haven't been valuable enough for those holding them raw to even think about selling either.

Has there ever been serious consideration given to a formal update  on the gerber scarcity ratings? By gerber or anyone else?

In 2008, Michelle Nolan wrote a series of articles reassessing Gerber's rankings.  But she just relied on her impressions, which is what Gerber did and what anyone else trying to come up with new scarcity indexes would pretty much have to do.  No way really to nail down how many raw copies might be out there.  I think we pretty much have to make do with rough estimates from observing how many copies seem available from dealers or on eBay.

[Sqeggs]

2 hours ago, Point Five said:

Here's a recent pickup I was happy to score.

I love the expressions, the body language and the composition Baker has going on on this cover. Unique and so different than the 'average' romance comic.

Nice pickup.  One of my favs, too.

[rjpb]

2 hours ago, Sqeggs said:

Yeah, it's tough to get a handle on how many lower-grade raw copies there are of any GA books.  I just looked at the Heritage archives and they have sold three copies of APC 18 over the years; all copies were raw.

They've sold about (I may have missed a couple sold in mixed lots) 11 copies of Action 172 -- two graded and nine raw. 

There are currently six copies of Action 172 for sale on eBay.  Metro doesn't have a copy for sale; neither does Superworld.  Tomorrow's Treasures has two, at least one of which is also listed on eBay.

Heritage does move a lot of raw books including lower-grade or lower-value books in lots.  Metro lists a lot of beater copies of GA books. So, I think if these books really existed in the thousands, we would have seen more of them for sale.

No way we can ever nail this down, but 200 copies of Action 172 surviving is certainly possible and it could be more, although I'd be surprised if it was much more.  But I'd be surprised if more than 20 or 30 copies of APC 18 still existed; 200 copies seems way too high.

I agree that ultimately it's all just speculation, as the census, ebay sales, etc, are just a slice of the activity on a single book, and some "hot" books are subject to a higher churn rate than other more lightly collected books that can sit in collections for decades not even because they are prized, but sometimes because they aren't worth enough to make a serious effort to sell.

The reason I think there may be far more copies out there of some of these books, is by looking at the numbers for a book like Action 252. Published a few years later than the earlier Actions, it probably exists in higher numbers, but is it going to be more than 3x as many? This was not an issue likely to survive more frequently than others of the time, as it was considered a minor key at best for decades, though Superman related titles in general may have had a higher survival rate than say something like Forbidden Worlds due to collector interest. There are over 700 complete copies in the census, and while some of these are going to be resubs or converted back to raw, it's still  a lot, and for a book where there are no doubt at least as many raw copies out there.   Ebay indicates roughly 60% of all copies listed or sold are CGC, the balance raw or graded by someone else. When one considers the main reason to slab such a book is to sell it, it's safe to estimate that hundreds of copies, even high grade ones, have been sitting raw in collections for years. I'd say the most conservative estimate is 1500 copies in existence, and it could easily be two or three times that.

Probably the toughest thing to factor when considering how many copies of a book exist is collector turnover rate. Some sold books are flipped in days, but like many here, I've still got books I bought decades ago. Hot and pricey books likely have far higher collector turnover than cheap low interest ones, which can sometimes sit in dealer inventory for years, but it's tough to truly know how reflective slabbing and sales are as a metric for assessing the number of existing copies.  If 2 or 3 copies of a book are sold in ebay in a year, what percentage of all sales does that represent, and what percentage of existing copies are sold in an average year?

[sagii]

43 minutes ago, rjpb said:

I agree that ultimately it's all just speculation, as the census, ebay sales, etc, are just a slice of the activity on a single book, and some "hot" books are subject to a higher churn rate than other more lightly collected books that can sit in collections for decades not even because they are prized, but sometimes because they aren't worth enough to make a serious effort to sell.

The reason I think there may be far more copies out there of some of these books, is by looking at the numbers for a book like Action 252. Published a few years later than the earlier Actions, it probably exists in higher numbers, but is it going to be more than 3x as many? This was not an issue likely to survive more frequently than others of the time, as it was considered a minor key at best for decades, though Superman related titles in general may have had a higher survival rate than say something like Forbidden Worlds due to collector interest. There are over 700 complete copies in the census, and while some of these are going to be resubs or converted back to raw, it's still  a lot, and for a book where there are no doubt at least as many raw copies out there.   Ebay indicates roughly 60% of all copies listed or sold are CGC, the balance raw or graded by someone else. When one considers the main reason to slab such a book is to sell it, it's safe to estimate that hundreds of copies, even high grade ones, have been sitting raw in collections for years. I'd say the most conservative estimate is 1500 copies in existence, and it could easily be two or three times that.

Probably the toughest thing to factor when considering how many copies of a book exist is collector turnover rate. Some sold books are flipped in days, but like many here, I've still got books I bought decades ago. Hot and pricey books likely have far higher collector turnover than cheap low interest ones, which can sometimes sit in dealer inventory for years, but it's tough to truly know how reflective slabbing and sales are as a metric for assessing the number of existing copies.  If 2 or 3 copies of a book are sold in ebay in a year, what percentage of all sales does that represent, and what percentage of existing copies are sold in an average year?

@rjpb So are there any book(s) either by year(s), publisher(s), subject matter that you will go out on a limb and say are truly scarce or rare in your opinion/experience? Action Comics 252 maybe a 'bad' example as Superman was such an icon at that time, it's easy to assume DC printed many more copies than say Wonder Woman then. So the survival average would be higher. That's like the Silver Age Marvel Keys (AF15) that seem to always be in supply and demand no matter how many slabbed copies are out there.

I would hazard a guess there are few people out there left who don't assume comic books are worth money. Even if they don't frequent these Boards,or buy the the Overstreet annually . If it's a collector who cherishes his collection, i'm sure they have wandered into the local comics shop, or antique shop or called up Metro, Harley, Ted, etc to gauge what the worth is on what they have been hoarding at least once in their life. While Baker may not carry the same cache with a lot of average collectors/or casual observers(who only thinks super heroes are all comics are about) some guy in the mountains in Tennessee who'd have them would still assume 'hey it's a 1950's comic, it must be valuable (rusty staples and all), so that would account for 'driving' them out knowing exactly what you have or not. Heck, average eBay HTF auction pieces (Teen Humor, esoteric golden age hero)don't even have the 'lowball' buy it now tags, most of them are actual auctions, with expectations 'this will go much higher than the 99 cents i'm kicking this off with.

All that was to say, with all the collections that have ended up in the hands of Metro, Heritage and Comiclink over the years combined, when they say 'first copy we have seen, or have seen in years in all our years of doing this, a lot of those cases are truly uncommon books. There are books I have been searching for on eBay for years that still have not turned up, and a small few only surface once every five years or so compared to other issues in any same given run. What about publishers who didn't last in the game long?

As to my original question, i think you and i had agreed that 1942 Harveys are scarce/rare, or did i misunderstand your assessment there? 

All just to pass and receive information buddy, interesting discussion between you and @Sqeggs

Edited October 21, 2017 by sagii

[Sqeggs]

22 minutes ago, rjpb said:

I agree that ultimately it's all just speculation, as the census, ebay sales, etc, are just a slice of the activity on a single book, and some "hot" books are subject to a higher churn rate than other more lightly collected books that can sit in collections for decades not even because they are prized, but sometimes because they aren't worth enough to make a serious effort to sell.

The reason I think there may be far more copies out there of some of these books, is by looking at the numbers for a book like Action 252. Published a few years later than the earlier Actions, it probably exists in higher numbers, but is it going to be more than 3x as many? This was not an issue likely to survive more frequently than others of the time, as it was considered a minor key at best for decades, though Superman related titles in general may have had a higher survival rate than say something like Forbidden Worlds due to collector interest. There are over 700 complete copies in the census, and while some of these are going to be resubs or converted back to raw, it's still  a lot, and for a book where there are no doubt at least as many raw copies out there.   Ebay indicates roughly 60% of all copies listed or sold are CGC, the balance raw or graded by someone else. When one considers the main reason to slab such a book is to sell it, it's safe to estimate that hundreds of copies, even high grade ones, have been sitting raw in collections for years. I'd say the most conservative estimate is 1500 copies in existence, and it could easily be two or three times that.

Probably the toughest thing to factor when considering how many copies of a book exist is collector turnover rate. Some sold books are flipped in days, but like many here, I've still got books I bought decades ago. Hot and pricey books likely have far higher collector turnover than cheap low interest ones, which can sometimes sit in dealer inventory for years, but it's tough to truly know how reflective slabbing and sales are as a metric for assessing the number of existing copies.  If 2 or 3 copies of a book are sold in ebay in a year, what percentage of all sales does that represent, and what percentage of existing copies are sold in an average year?

Interesting discussion.  I would say there's a world of difference between a 1952 book like Action 172 or APC 18 and a 1959 book like Action 252.  My memory from collecting in the mid-1960s is that Action 252 was already considered an important book.  I remember getting a copy even though in those days most of my interest was in completing my Marvel runs.  First Supergirl was kind of a big deal, even then. 

I'm pretty sure that publication numbers for late 1950s books were much higher than for early 1950s books, partly because of demographics, with the early baby boomers having moved into their prime comic buying years.  And, then, as modern fandom got rolling (in response to the early Marvel books) in the early 1960s, it would be much more likely that late 1950s books would still be available in used magazine stores than early 1950s books would have been.  And, of course, there was the purge of comics during the Wertham period -- although I've never gotten a grasp of how much of that really went on, as opposed to how much was hyped in the media.

I think we've seen some early 1950s book heat up -- Phantom Stranger comes to mind -- without too many copies coming to market.  Per GPA, this summer a 4.0 copy of issue 1 sold for $2,868 and a 2.5 sold for $1,093.  There are only 56 (51 blue) on the census.  With those prices, I think many more copies would have been graded if as many as 2,000 survived.  Census counts for other issues:

2 -- 32 (31 blue)
3 -- 23 (22 blue)
4 -- 26 (25 blue)
5 -- 23 (24 blue)
6 -- 20 (23 blue)

I'm just using this run as examples of books that have been hot for a few years now and worth slabbing even in VGish (or probably lower) but where we haven't seen many copies surface.  Dealers are clearly on the alert for these books and would be offering them if they could.

And getting back to Baker ... a raw copy of Pictorial Romances 10 sold quickly on the boards this afternoon at an asking price of $1,250.  Not a shocking price and hasn't been a shocking price for at least a couple of years now.  Yet there are only 9 copies on the CGC census.  Again, it seems unlikely to me that as many 200 copies of the book survive.  I would be surprised if the number were greater than 50.

We'll never be able to nail this down definitively, but it's fun to discuss it. 

[rjpb]

8 minutes ago, sagii said:

@rjpb So are there any book(s) either by year(s), publisher(s), subject matter that you will go out on a limb and say are truly scarce or rare in your opinion/experience? Action Comics 252 maybe a 'bad' example as Superman was such an icon at that time, it's easy to assume DC printed many more copies than say Wonder Woman then. So the survival average would be higher. That's like the Silver Age Marvel Keys (AF15) that seem to always be in supply and demand no matter how many slabbed copies are out there.

I would hazard a guess there are few people out there left who don't assume comic books are worth money. Even if they don't frequent these Boards,or buy the the Overstreet annually . If it's a collector who cherishes his collection, i'm sure they have wandered into the local comics shop, or antique shop or called up Metro, Harley, Ted, etc to gauge what the worth is on what they have been hoarding at least once in their life. While Baker may not carry the same cache with a lot of average collectors/or casual observers(who only thinks super heroes are all comics are about) some guy in the mountains in Tennessee who'd have them would still assume 'hey it's a 1950's comic, it must be valuable (rusty staples and all), so that would account for 'driving' them out knowing exactly what you have or not. Heck, average eBay HTF auction pieces (Teen Humor, esoteric golden age hero)don't even have the 'lowball' buy it now tags, most of them are actual auctions, with expectations 'this will go much higher than the 99 cents i'm kicking this off with.

All that was to say, with all the collections that have ended up in the hands of Metro, Heritage and Comiclink over the years combined, when they say 'first copy we have seen, or have seen in years in all our years of doing this, a lot of those cases are truly uncommon books. There are books I have been searching for on eBay for years that still have not turned up, and a small few only surface once every five years or so compared to other issues in any same given run. What about publishers who didn't last in the game long?

As to my original question, i think you and i had agreed that 1942 Harveys are scarce/rare, or did i misunderstand your assessment there? 

All just to pass and receive information buddy, interesting discussion between you and @Sqeggs

I don't know that my own experience is enough to opine deeply on which books are truly scarce. I think in general pre-1944 books are scarce relative to their later counterparts, but compared to each other, it's clear that some are far scarcer than others. Pops in auction prices for books that have no obvious distinction from surrounding issues seems to be as good as any metric for relative scarcity. And collectors of particular runs and publishers seem to have some consensus of opinion as to which issues are tougher to find. I don't doubt there are books with only a couple dozen extant copies, but not as many as we might think. 

It's safe to say that small and obscure publishers without marquee characters undersold more popular publishers, and by extension would generally have fewer surviving issues, though some more than others due to the randomness of relative rarity. Tracking sales in public venues is perhaps unreliable. Availability seems to ebb and flow, influenced by raising awareness and interest and that effect on price, and also because things don't come to market in a reliable pattern. How many times has someone on the boards mentioned looking years for a book, only for three copies to come to market in a month. I have noticed that a couple collectors on the boards with the proper funds and networking skills seem able to put together runs pretty quickly, even when they include books considered quite uncommon.

I remember when Captain America #74 was considered to have maybe 20 copies existing by Overstreet.  It's not common, but I wouldn't be surprised to find twice that many are owned by Board members alone.

[sagii]

 All very good points and observations

[N e r V]

I think an example of the scarcity of St. John’s vs other publishers can be found in Casper and Little Audrey. Try collecting St. John’s Casper #1-5 and Little Audrey #1-24 vs Harvey’s Casper #6-10 or Little Audrey #25-48 (#25 isn’t scarce really but super popular cover). Not impossible by any means to complete sets but it’s the difference in setting your video game difficulty between easy and very difficult.

 

I’m also of the opinion most of the best Baker books from St. John sit raw in collections from years earlier. It’s the newer Baker collectors of the past decade or so that are interested in slabs. The Baker “butt” cover posted certainly exists in raw conditions far above the posted slab.

[29dukedog]

12 minutes ago, N e r V said:

I’m also of the opinion most of the best Baker books from St. John sit raw in collections from years earlier. It’s the newer Baker collectors of the past decade or so that are interested in slabs. The Baker “butt” cover posted certainly exists in raw conditions far above the posted slab.

The majority of my Bakers are still raw, and quite a few of them would likely top the current highest graded.  I like them raw.  I'll slab them if/when I go to sell them.  

[Dr. Love]

2 hours ago, N e r V said:

 Harvey’s Casper #6-10

just a reminder for you completionists that there is no Harvey Casper #6 per se - the series starts with #7.  The first (and most definitive iconic images of) Harvey Casper is Harvey Comics Hits #61.  Then he moves to his own title.

I will rarely miss a chance to repost one of my favorite all time books - especially at this scariest time of the year.  BOOO!

 

Edited October 21, 2017 by Dr. Love

[29dukedog]

Cool comic, but what's it got to do wit Matt Baker?  Or Kevin Bacon?   

[Dr. Love]

I thought that was a Baker cover!  Thin fingers!

[Sqeggs]

10 hours ago, 29dukedog said:

The majority of my Bakers are still raw, and quite a few of them would likely top the current highest graded.  I like them raw.  I'll slab them if/when I go to sell them.  

Nice copy.  I think I may have seen a couple of raw copies that are nicer than this one posted to the boards (don't ask me when or by whom!).  That's why I was surprised when I checked the census and the 3.5 I had a graded a few weeks ago turned out to be highest-graded, ahead of a couple of 3.0s.

It's gotta be a Gerber 9, I tell ya!  Maybe a Gerber 9.6! 

[Sqeggs]

8 hours ago, Dr. Love said:

I thought that was a Baker cover!  Thin fingers!

I agree.  Pretty clearly the same artist as did the cover to Saint 4. 

[N e r V]

10 hours ago, Dr. Love said:

just a reminder for you completionists that there is no Harvey Casper #6 per se - the series starts with #7.  The first (and most definitive iconic images of) Harvey Casper is Harvey Comics Hits #61.  Then he moves to his own title.

I will rarely miss a chance to repost one of my favorite all time books - especially at this scariest time of the year.  BOOO!

 

Sshhh...

I had collectors looking for All Winners #20 for years. 

[Sqeggs]

This one ain't gonna win any favorite cover contests, but I like it a lot.  Probably didn't resonate much with the teenage girl audience for these books.  The more usual approach was to show a young woman flashing her engagement/wedding ring while in the embrace of her hunky fiancé/husband.  Maybe Baker really was able to pull rank as art director at St John to be allowed to publish a cover like this.

This copy has some unfortunate browning along the spine.  I have another copy with the same problem. 

Edited October 25, 2017 by Sqeggs
Fiancé, who may or may not have been employed in finance!

[torontodesignguy]

5 hours ago, Sqeggs said:

This one ain't gonna win any favorite cover contests, but I like it a lot.  Probably didn't resonate much with the teenage girl audience for these books.  The more usual approach was to show a young woman flashing her engagement/wedding ring while in the embrace of her hunky finance/husband.  Maybe Baker really was able to pull rank as art director at St John to be allowed to publish a cover like this.

This copy has some unfortunate browning along the spine.  I have another copy with the same problem. 

one of my favourite covers - ahead of it times by decades...  I have a poor beat up reader that I hope to upgrade one day. 

[Sqeggs]

38 minutes ago, torontodesignguy said:

one of my favourite covers - ahead of it times by decades...  I have a poor beat up reader that I hope to upgrade one day. 

It sure does stand out among the romance covers, doesn't it?

[comicnoir]

1 hour ago, Sqeggs said:

It sure does stand out among the romance covers, doesn't it?

It stands out because there's no sexual tension. They're married and the thrill is gone. He's spent and sound asleep. She's unhappy. Romantic Marriage is almost an oxymoron. That being said, it's still a great cover.