Silver Age Comic Book Prices Rise 14.2%

[mysterymachine]

keys keys keys. What does this mean for my Tales to Astonish #88 if it was graded 5.0? It all really comes down to supply and demand and that relates to Title and issue number.

[Thegoldenage]

The Dow Jones Industrials are hardly industrials anymore and are picked to represent a slice of the market.

 

OK. So, this would be better titled 'Key Silver Age Marvels Rise 14.2%', yes? [/quote

 

where`s the love for silver age,Gold Keys TV, DC war comics or House of Mystery 175?

 

Not a matter of love, but rather the number of recorded sales for each member of the "index". Books with low numbers of transactions have a much higher variance in pricing over unit time than those with lots of transactions, and so don't make for reliable indexing.

 

I thought the Gold Key TV show adaptions were always good sellers ie BradyBunch, Scooby Doo Addams Family etc....?

 

You thought wrong.

[MR.COMICBOOK]

The Dow Jones Industrials are hardly industrials anymore and are picked to represent a slice of the market.

 

OK. So, this would be better titled 'Key Silver Age Marvels Rise 14.2%', yes? [/quote

 

where`s the love for silver age,Gold Keys TV, DC war comics or House of Mystery 175?

 

Not a matter of love, but rather the number of recorded sales for each member of the "index". Books with low numbers of transactions have a much higher variance in pricing over unit time than those with lots of transactions, and so don't make for reliable indexing.

 

I thought the Gold Key TV show adaptions were always good sellers ie BradyBunch, Scooby Doo Addams Family etc....?

 

You thought wrong.

So basically it`s silver age MARVEL keys and a sprinkle here or there with a DC thrown in. gotcha.

[Flaming_Telepath]

FT, I can try to do something like this over a long time frame. In the 18-month timeframe, the non-keys might not have enough data, but in the 2002 - 2008 timeframe they probably do.

 

I'm open to some suggestions on this, but one thought off the top of my head... Where possible, I could use issues right before or after a key issue. For example, X-Men #12 is a key so I could use X-Men #11 or X-Men #13 in the non-Key set. Unfortunately, this doesn't work very well with the #1 issues because the #2 issue isn't an apple to apple comparison if you know what I mean. Still, it's probably the best we can do... At least it's the same age and title.

 

The idea is to try to isolate the effect of a book being a "key" versus "non-key", right? So we want to, create a list of books that the non-key sister books of the SCPI. Perhaps a dozen books would do....

 

(worship)

 

I think these results would be real interesting. Kudos on the effort you put in.

[Flash105]

You use keys and high volume movers in an index to indicate the direction and health of the market. While not perfect if designed carefully it will give you the information you need. For instance on the DJIA, intel is a good indicator of the semiconductor industry, Citigroup and American Express for financials, Home Depot and Walmart for retail, and so on. So.... the books chosen for cycle girl's index would represent super hero titles. If you want to include war, romance, and funnies, you would need to add those titles.

 

I think non-keys would not give you the information you need because of the low volume. For years almost decades Bershire Hathaway was not included in the S&P 500 despite its size and importance to the economy because its daily volume was so low that individual fund managers could manipulate its price and affect the overall S&P.

[gaz973]

FT, I can try to do something like this over a long time frame. In the 18-month timeframe, the non-keys might not have enough data, but in the 2002 - 2008 timeframe they probably do.

 

I'm open to some suggestions on this, but one thought off the top of my head... Where possible, I could use issues right before or after a key issue. For example, X-Men #12 is a key so I could use X-Men #11 or X-Men #13 in the non-Key set. Unfortunately, this doesn't work very well with the #1 issues because the #2 issue isn't an apple to apple comparison if you know what I mean. Still, it's probably the best we can do... At least it's the same age and title.

 

The idea is to try to isolate the effect of a book being a "key" versus "non-key", right? So we want to, create a list of books that the non-key sister books of the SCPI. Perhaps a dozen books would do....

 

(worship)

 

I think these results would be real interesting. Kudos on the effort you put in.

 

Hi CG , I second what FT says.

[drewincanada]

Gotta ask again (since I was ignored the first time ):

 

Why are there repeats on that master list of books? Why, for example, is Avengers #4 CGC 8.0 on there twice, once with an average value of $1014 and again at $481?

 

Am I missing something obvious?

[gaz973]

Gotta ask again (since I was ignored the first time ):

 

Why are there repeats on that master list of books? Why, for example, is Avengers #4 CGC 8.0 on there twice, once with an average value of $1014 and again at $481?

 

Am I missing something obvious?

 

Actually, I wondered too.

[CycleGirl]

Gotta ask again (since I was ignored the first time ):

 

Why are there repeats on that master list of books? Why, for example, is Avengers #4 CGC 8.0 on there twice, once with an average value of $1014 and again at $481?

 

Am I missing something obvious?

 

Actually, I wondered too.

 

You guys are right! I must have made a mistake in a copy and paste or something. Below is the corrected table. I've also corrected it in the blog and in the previous post. The index wasn't affected, it was just that particular list of issues.

 

 

Thanks for catching this.

 

CycleGirl

[Aman619]

ASM1, FF1 and TOS39 are still there twice each....

[llll-migration]

I applaud your efforts and urge you to explore them further.

 

I just wanted to chime in with my two cents

and by no means do I intend to disparage your research.

 

If this SA Marvel Key index can be compared to the DJIA,

then the most of the rest of all SA comics can be compared to the AMEX or worse,

(some third world stock exchange, perhaps.)

 

SA Superhero Keys are in a class by themselves.

 

Nothing much else from the SA comes close.

 

Prices could, actually, be dropping in many SA genres.

[Aces]

 

That's one Krazy Kat!

[gaz973]

ASM1, FF1 and TOS39 are still there twice each....

 

Yeah, and it's a good way of comparing how the difference of grade affects them. (thumbs u

[llll-migration]

 

That's one Krazy Kat!

 

I'm not him.

[Flaming_Telepath]

You use keys and high volume movers in an index to indicate the direction and health of the market. While not perfect if designed carefully it will give you the information you need. For instance on the DJIA, intel is a good indicator of the semiconductor industry, Citigroup and American Express for financials, Home Depot and Walmart for retail, and so on. So.... the books chosen for cycle girl's index would represent super hero titles. If you want to include war, romance, and funnies, you would need to add those titles.

 

I think non-keys would not give you the information you need because of the low volume. For years almost decades Bershire Hathaway was not included in the S&P 500 despite its size and importance to the economy because its daily volume was so low that individual fund managers could manipulate its price and affect the overall S&P.

 

I think you're missing the point.

 

SA keys are a class of their own, not best examples. We're potentially comparing apples and oranges here, and it has nothing to do with respective volumes. Besides, over the last five years, there's been more than enough trading in X-Men #26 in VF, or Avengers #14, for the data to be validated.

[CycleGirl]

I applaud your efforts and urge you to explore them further.

 

I just wanted to chime in with my two cents

and by no means do I intend to disparage your research.

 

If this SA Marvel Key index can be compared to the DJIA,

then the most of the rest of all SA comics can be compared to the AMEX or worse,

(some third world stock exchange, perhaps.)

 

SA Superhero Keys are in a class by themselves.

 

Nothing much else from the SA comes close.

 

Prices could, actually, be dropping in many SA genres.

 

For smaller market books, the OSPG might be a better resource than the SCPI, because Overstreet covers non-CGC books. I think that a lot of the other markets are traded in raw form, aren't they?

 

However, as someone said, the SCPI does give an indication of the health and enthusiasm for the hobby. By the way, the SCPI is not really moving very well so far in 2008. Iron Man (including Tales of Suspense) is probably the main reason we are very slightly positive for the year so far.

 

Back to my original point, here is how the market share data comes out at this point in 2008 according to GPA. Again, GPA only tracks CGC books.

 

Top 20 Silver Age titles Jan-Jun 2008 = 78% of all SA trades

 

All Top 20 titles SA titles are super-hero

.Marvel Titles = 14

.DC Titles = 6

 

GPA Dollar Volume (from top 20 titles only)

.Marvel Titles $7.2M

.All DC Titles $1.1M

 

The combination of Amazing Spider-man and Amazing Fantasy represent 24% of all CGC Silver-Age sales! It may seem biased, but this is where comic book dollars are spent.

 

By the way, Flash and JLA appear to be gaining market share in 2008 compared to 2007. While Marvel still dominates with a 7 to 1 ratio, that ratio is smaller than it was when I created the index. I think that I need to add in at least one or two more DC issues before the next update. Flash #123 is a good candidate.

 

CycleGirl

 

 

[kc120us]

Awesome work, Rhonda. It made for some very interesting reading.

[Thegoldenage]

I applaud your efforts and urge you to explore them further.

 

I just wanted to chime in with my two cents

and by no means do I intend to disparage your research.

 

If this SA Marvel Key index can be compared to the DJIA,

then the most of the rest of all SA comics can be compared to the AMEX or worse,

(some third world stock exchange, perhaps.)

 

SA Superhero Keys are in a class by themselves.

 

Nothing much else from the SA comes close.

 

Prices could, actually, be dropping in many SA genres.

 

For smaller market books, the OSPG might be a better resource than the SCPI, because Overstreet covers non-CGC books. I think that a lot of the other markets are traded in raw form, aren't they?

 

However, as someone said, the SCPI does give an indication of the health and enthusiasm for the hobby. By the way, the SCPI is not really moving very well so far in 2008. Iron Man (including Tales of Suspense) is probably the main reason we are very slightly positive for the year so far.

 

Back to my original point, here is how the market share data comes out at this point in 2008 according to GPA. Again, GPA only tracks CGC books.

 

Top 20 Silver Age titles Jan-Jun 2008 = 78% of all SA trades

 

All Top 20 titles SA titles are super-hero

.Marvel Titles = 14

.DC Titles = 6

 

GPA Dollar Volume (from top 20 titles only)

.Marvel Titles $7.2M

.All DC Titles $1.1M

 

The combination of Amazing Spider-man and Amazing Fantasy represent 24% of all CGC Silver-Age sales! It may seem biased, but this is where comic book dollars are spent.

 

By the way, Flash and JLA appear to be gaining market share in 2008 compared to 2007. While Marvel still dominates with a 7 to 1 ratio, that ratio is smaller than it was when I created the index. I think that I need to add in at least one or two more DC issues before the next update. Flash #123 is a good candidate.

 

CycleGirl

 

 

So is inflation calculated into your numbers or not?

[tth2]

I applaud your efforts and urge you to explore them further.

 

I just wanted to chime in with my two cents

and by no means do I intend to disparage your research.

 

If this SA Marvel Key index can be compared to the DJIA,

then the most of the rest of all SA comics can be compared to the AMEX or worse,

(some third world stock exchange, perhaps.)

 

SA Superhero Keys are in a class by themselves.

 

Nothing much else from the SA comes close.

 

Prices could, actually, be dropping in many SA genres.

Except, of course, for war books and Duck books, among others, that have been moving up steadily. If you're starting off a low base, then even small increases can mean big percentage increases. Seems to me this "index" could be broadened to include some non-keys that are relatively liquid. The trick would be to identify some non-keys and non-superheroes that are liquid.

 

The great thing is that this index would be automatically dollar-weighted, saving some of the adjustment work that needs to be done on stock indices where relative share prices don't equate to relative market caps. Comics, on the other hand, perfectly reflect relative weightings through their valuation. So anyone concerned that inclusion of some late TTA non-key, for example, would distort the index should realize that its value is so much lower than many keys that its price movements would have much smaller impact on the index.

[llll-migration]

"The trick would be to identify some non-keys and non-superheroes that are liquid."

 

How would one weigh the genres to decide how many of each to be chosen to include in the index? What criteria would be most important?

 

And then which issues? Why?

 

I'll think about it and get back to you.