TMNT #1 Club 19 19

[pubmonkey]

On 8/24/2020 at 1:52 PM, TMNT said:

This book, like most TMNT collectibles (comics, comic art, toys, etc.) has been undervalued for years. So it makes sense that at some point prices would increase. To those that think its completely due to market manipulation, I think you're wrong. There is legit demand. But to those that think its just demand, you're wrong too. There is absolutely at least some manipulation going on when you have any item (be it a stock, comic book, etc.) that has seen the amounts market gyrations going on that we've seen lately. And with a book like this, where there are only a few hundred graded out there, it'd be relatively easy to do. Without a doubt there are a number of speculators on this book (including people here on the boards) that are also taking part in moving the needle buy buying multiples of the book at any price. 

So what is going on here? Is it because of the "rule of 30" where it being a 36 year book and it was due to a nostalgic increase Maybe, but it was just a 35 year book and we didn't see this going on, even with a fresh comic and tv show. Is it because of Seth Rogen movie hype? Puhlease...no one knows about this or cares and again, we've not seen anything like this with previous big movies. It's not like its about to hit theaters anytime soon. Is it due to limited print run? Well, it's ALWAYS had a limited print, nothing new there. In fact, there are MORE books available now at all grades than there has been before. Perhaps a combination of the above or something else?

So what else has been going on in tandem with this book's meteoric rise? There really is only one thing: Covid. Other investments across the board are seeing record highs as well. People still with jobs are making more money than ever in the markets. And collectibles are on fire as people harken back to the good ole' days and try to buy pieces of their childhood back when things were simpler and maskedless. So that for me is the real wildcard in all this, when Covid ends or gets under control and people can leave their house and  start spending money on vacations, experiences, etc. will this book stay on fire?

I would've expected to see an increase...but not like this. Not where every book in every grade is nearing 5 figures roughly over night. When 4.0 2nd prints are suddenly 1K+ books. Anything in excess, whether too much ice cream or sudden $10,000 shifts in funny books, is generally never a good idea. So where the dust settles will be interesting to see. 

This is an excellent analysis and the points are right on. Myself I am less inclined to believe that the pandemic has caused this hype but helped it along. The turtles have been a hot property since the 1980's and I think the pandemic just got everyone sitting quietly enough that we all realized there was something waiting to happen that just hadn't happened yet. If it wasn't going to be because of the pandemic it was coming soon enough as the flood gates were already cracking open. So I agree with TMNT that all of the factors he has wisely mentioned are in play but I think covid is not the cause but simply a factor that has accelerated where the turtles were going to get to in a year or two and the prices we are seeing will continue to rise albeit in a more subtle fashion than doubling overnight.

[manetteska]

8 hours ago, LDarkseid1 said:

And there you have it. With sales tax it’s pretty much what I initially said, around $17K or so. Overall solid sale considering before the hype a 9.0 sold for $1K less and a 9.4 sold for around $2K more pre-sales tax.

Trying to decipher this. 

Are you saying before the hype 9.0 copies were selling for $15k?

[TMNT]

Yes, I don't mean to imply that covid is THE cause, as like has been mentioned, there are a number of factors that have for a long time been brewing. But the question remains, why now? Why this moment? None of what has been mentioned (low print run, 30 year property, etc.) is new. 

So here's a question for the group:

Had Covid not occurred, do you think prices from Feb - Aug 2020 would have exploded as they have regardless? I'm not asking if down the road would we have got there... I'm taking now, in this moment. If the answer is no, it might be worth considering when investing in this book. Perhaps covid pushed over the edge what would have happened naturally in a few years... Or perhaps covid has people spending in the moment differently than they might once its gone. Either way, knowing that such an outside force is having such a major impact on the movement of the book, its important to consider future price fluctuations when Covid is gone/under control. It's hard to predict under the best of times but moreso in this Covid Era. Those making money in the now, congratulations and enjoy... My suggestion is just to be mindful that there might be more at play than simple "the book is hot hot HOT!!" 

[pubmonkey]

2 minutes ago, TMNT said:

Had Covid not occurred, do you think prices from Feb - Aug 2020 would have exploded as they have regardless?

definitely not, they were rising but on a much lesser curve... Although I really do believe the 2nd prints were way underpriced...not now...but then...

[LDarkseid1]

50 minutes ago, manetteska said:

Trying to decipher this. 

Are you saying before the hype 9.0 copies were selling for $15k?

No I’m not sure what 9.0 copies were selling for on the average, but a copy that was sitting on the bay for a while got snatched up for $15K. Presumably at auction 9.0’s were selling for less than that.

[manetteska]

42 minutes ago, LDarkseid1 said:

No I’m not sure what 9.0 copies were selling for on the average, but a copy that was sitting on the bay for a while got snatched up for $15K. Presumably at auction 9.0’s were selling for less than that.

Got it; so the 2 previously-sold eBay copies went for those prices.

Are there any saved eBay sales from March/April as a comparison?

[LDarkseid1]

26 minutes ago, manetteska said:

Got it; so the 2 previously-sold eBay copies went for those prices.

Are there any saved eBay sales from March/April as a comparison?

For first prints these were the oldest I could find. But if you checked GPA I'm sure you could get a better example of sales around any time throughout this year, in any grade and through the several sites that report to them.

Edited August 26, 2020 by LDarkseid1

[valiantman]

The danger of falling prices is clearly highest in the mid-grade 2nd print and the high-grade 3rd prints.

Sudden jumps during 2020 are highest in those areas:

FYI - if we were looking at the market as a whole in the past few months, we'd need to add books like Venom #3 - 3rd Print (2018) which has jumped +735%.

Edited August 26, 2020 by valiantman

[pubmonkey]

On 1/18/2009 at 7:02 PM, RockMyAmadeus said:

Well, hey...if Spawn #1 can have one....

 

 

I bought this off of eBay in early 1999.

 

Final bid price was $61. With S&H, it was $66.

 

I had been looking to buy a copy for yearrrrrrs. My high bid was $125.

 

It is a solid 9.2/9.4 candidate.

 

Here's RMA's original and first post in this thread...oh how times have changed... $61!!!

[valiantman]

1 hour ago, pubmonkey said:

Here's RMA's original and first post in this thread...oh how times have changed... $61!!!

I actually think about the fact that he got a first printing TMNT #1 for $61 in 1999 every time I pay $20 for a nice condition first printing of ElfQuest #2 (1978 edition with the $1.00 cover).  They're not the same as TMNT #1 at all, but it is unbelievable how cheap the first printings of ElfQuest #2 still are... it's also the first issue of the series, black and white independent book with a good following for decades, reprinted twice over 40 years ago, and 6 years older than TMNT #1.   Still about $20?  Yes, please! 

(Not Mile High, though, I don't trust them to send me a first printing or to grade correctly.) 

Edited August 26, 2020 by valiantman

[ERTH616]

5 hours ago, TMNT said:

Yes, I don't mean to imply that covid is THE cause, as like has been mentioned, there are a number of factors that have for a long time been brewing. But the question remains, why now? Why this moment? None of what has been mentioned (low print run, 30 year property, etc.) is new. 

So here's a question for the group:

Had Covid not occurred, do you think prices from Feb - Aug 2020 would have exploded as they have regardless? I'm not asking if down the road would we have got there... I'm taking now, in this moment. If the answer is no, it might be worth considering when investing in this book. Perhaps covid pushed over the edge what would have happened naturally in a few years... Or perhaps covid has people spending in the moment differently than they might once its gone. Either way, knowing that such an outside force is having such a major impact on the movement of the book, its important to consider future price fluctuations when Covid is gone/under control. It's hard to predict under the best of times but moreso in this Covid Era. Those making money in the now, congratulations and enjoy... My suggestion is just to be mindful that there might be more at play than simple "the book is hot hot HOT!!" 

Also feels like the wave started with a certain IG sales page starting an ISO campaign July 10th that has ran since. With that visibility and leverage on the market, many watchers may have joined the spec or FOMO train. Makes sense if you have the capital to claim what little there is in the market. With the ad claiming to pay "significantly more than GPA", you can see where others could become concerned with a market rise that could shut them out, left with FOMO.
Prior to that, the discussion had been how far the floor dropped on a 9.8 first print. 

[Subby1938]

9 hours ago, manetteska said:

Trying to decipher this. 

Are you saying before the hype 9.0 copies were selling for $15k?

I bought my cgc 9.0 first print for 5 K two years ago so there has been considerable price hike . Like insane price hike 

 

The other thing I want to add , this whole FOMO garbage as collectors scramble to drive up prices on everything it seems foolishly who invented that term? and when has this been an acceptable part of this hobby? Price increase blame it on FOMO , fake prices must be FOMO. It’s messed up . 

[LDarkseid1]

29 minutes ago, Subby1938 said:

I bought my cgc 9.0 first print for 5 K two years ago so there has been considerable price hike . Like insane price hike 

 

The other thing I want to add , this whole FOMO garbage as collectors scramble to drive up prices on everything it seems foolishly who invented that term? and when has this been an acceptable part of this hobby? Price increase blame it on FOMO , fake prices must be FOMO. It’s messed up . 

It was @lou_fine who brought up that FOMO had a hand to play in it. Personally I disagree with your assessment and think Lou was correct. You just seem like a very angry person as it pertains to this thread. Like you’re mad you missed out on a copy because of this 😂. You have a 9.0, just be happy!

Edited August 26, 2020 by LDarkseid1

[Subby1938]

I don’t have it anymore I’m not angry these prices  are made up . FOMO is pure make believe but I can see how people get drawn into thinking books are impossible to find and too rare etc etc.

 

over the years I’ve learned any book aside from some htf golden age books can be had if you pay . Driving up prices can only be done by fat wallets . Poor collectors like myself wouldn’t do that . Why would we do that ? Who the hell is paying 12-20K during COVID for a comic . Not blue collar! 

[Sauce Dog]

but seriously, this price of this book is twisting and distorting reality in ways that can only be described as some sort of Lovecraftian induced insanity. 

I logged into instagram to just double check prices in order to potentially work out a sale of my 5.0 (so I can finally feel secure in a price I've come to) and see this posted... 
 

 

[LDarkseid1]

46 minutes ago, Subby1938 said:

BTW stop trying to analyze my persona on a public forum please . It’s borderline dumb as you have no idea who I am like I don’t know who you are. Stating I’m angry because you read text is stupid! 

I'm just going to ignore you now. I feel like that will be the best plan of attack considering how angry you always are . I don’t like to associate with idi***.

Edited August 27, 2020 by LDarkseid1

[LDarkseid1]

5 minutes ago, Sauce Dog said:

but seriously, this price of this book is twisting and distorting reality in ways that can only be described as some sort of Lovecraftian induced insanity. 

I logged into instagram to just double check prices in order to potentially work out a sale of my 5.0 (so I can finally feel secure in a price I've come to) and see this posted... 
 

 

That is probably a little high for a 6.5 (even white pages and unpressed) considering a 7.5 just sold for $12,500. I don't blame people however for trying to capitalize on the mad craze that is this book.

Edited August 26, 2020 by LDarkseid1

[Sauce Dog]

8 minutes ago, LDarkseid1 said:

That is probably a little high for a 6.5 considering a 7.5 just sold for $12,500. I don't blame people however for trying to capitalize on the mad craze that is this book.

Where did the 7.5 sell on? Clink, I assume?

I can see the method behind his madness though, as even on the GPA an 8.0 sold in April for $6,500 but then an 8.5 went and sold for $16,177 in August. A 10k difference of three months for just 0.5 is some hard line drugs right there - The pages of this comic are literally distorting physics and the concept of numbers as time progresses.

Edited August 26, 2020 by Sauce Dog

[LDarkseid1]

15 minutes ago, Sauce Dog said:

Where did the 7.5 sell on? Clink, I assume?

I can see the method behind his madness though, as even on the GPA an 8.0 sold in April for $6,500 but then an 8.5 went and sold for $16,177 in August. A 10k difference of three months for just 0.5 is some hard line drugs right there - The pages of this comic are literally distorting physics and the concept of numbers as time progresses.

That's correct, was indeed Clink. Yeah the difference in price between now and even like two months ago is insane!

[LDarkseid1]

I’m just mainly happy I jumped on a super high grade 2nd print before it got nutty. It would suck to have owned any version of TMNT 1 and now not have it anymore.

Edited August 27, 2020 by LDarkseid1