Official Market Crash Thread: Part Two!

[The_Man_Of_Steel]

Gene, I appreciate yours and CI's friendly and sound advice, I belive you guys have every good intention. That said I just wanted to comment on something you said,

 

delekkerste: "this character will stay popular and be in demand forever".

 

While one cannot say for absolute certaintly, you can follow the past 20 years of Top 300 comic books, and based on those results come to the conclusion that charcters such as Spider-Man are not going away anytime soon.

 

However, (in agreement with yourself and CI) paying high multiples (more than 2x) of guide for just about ANY book is a gamble IF you are buying them for the SOLE intention of making profit. IF you are buying it because you have the money and just want to own it and or read it, then more power to you, but don't expect that another collector is willing to pay the same amount or more.

[keithdagen]

For collectibles, my experience is that values will always fluctuate, and that collectibles do not necessarily make good long-term investments. This has been proven in several different collectible markets.

 

So, the bottom line is, but a book because you like it, and not because you think it will double in value in 5 years. It may double in value, but it may well get cut in half. It cannot be predicted.

 

And the final piece of advice, avoid ultra-high grade books published in the last 10 to 15 years. The print runs on a majority of these books are enormous, and hoards in high-grade are bound to exist. These are the books that you are most likely to see have significant drops in value. Action #1 or Amazing Fantasy #15 are not going to drop 50% in value, even if Ultimate Spidey #1 does.

[comicinvestor-migration]

Says who? You? Just because Gene says this is the only relevant question does not make it so. It may be the only relevant one to you, but like I said I have my own opinion.

 

I agree that with most things differing opinions is a good thing, but numbers don't lie. Statistics maybe, but not the kind of basic ROI numbers we're seeing with CGC comics.

 

You may think that moving from a 20X Return on Guide to today's 2X (1X Guide or less for commons) isn't a huge crash of epic proportions, but I doubt you'd find many financial analysts to agree with you. Especially those that bought at 20X Guide.

 

And it's also important to understand the basic difference between mass market consumables (gas, cookies, and all other inane examples posted here) and collectibles, which have no functional use outside their intrinsic value.

 

Or as many dealers are fond of saying: "A stack of comics ain't gonna pay your bills, feed your family or heat your home".

[snizzenfixit]

I am in full agreement that there has been a downturn in prices. I just do not believe that the comic market is in an endless downward spiral. If you are into comics to make the fast buck, then this is a bad thing. If you are in the market purely as a collector, then this can be viewed as a good thing. Another reason that the term "Crash" doesn't seem to me to fit, is because "Crash" implies doom for all involved, whereas lower prices for collectors are welcomed. If you want to call it a crash that is fine, personally I call it a windfall.

 

And it's also important to understand the basic difference between mass market consumables (gas, cookies, and all other inane examples posted here) and collectibles, which have no functional use outside their intrinsic value.

 

This is one of the reasons that gas was mentioned in the first place. If you call it a "Comic Market Crash" the number of people affected is like a drop of water in a swimming pool. If you call it a "Gas market crash" the number affected is like a swimming pool minus a drop. This alone would make a "Gas Market Crash" far more significant and important, yet there was little talk of impending doom when gas prices were fluctuationg so violently. There was some, but it was from the extremists.

 

Phil

 

 

[blowout]

why are people still harping on about the definition of a crash?

 

there is absolutely no room for doubt that the cgc comic book market as a whole has crashed. you only have to track ebay prices to see that and as i said before others argue about price corrections to overstreet levels, which is crazy in itself as cgc books have never sold at overstreet levels. prices on cgc books started high, got higher and now are coming down rapidly.

 

anyone who argues against these stone cold facts is only deluding themselves.

 

does this mean the comic book market as a whole has crashed?

no it doesn't.

 

new comic sales are up and raw books are selling well at around overstreet levels, the only raw books that are really suffering are high grade as people slow down their cgc submissions.

 

i personally think there is still some room for optimism in the comic book market. sure the collector base may be dwindling, but i don't think the knock-on effect of this will hit for a couple more decades yet.

 

it is still also worth buying cgc books IMHO, just don't throw out the guide when you do so.

 

[aardvark88]

If the US goes to war in Dec/02, then collectors & Heritage bidders will learn that comics really do NOT have intrinsic value. Comics are purchased w/ discretionary income. The fun money will vanish, as we re-prioritize due to the harsh reality of life (or death) in N America.

[The_Man_Of_Steel]

If we go to war with Iraq (which I think is likely due to a lack of co-operation), we are gonna tear Sadam a new one!!

[FlyingDonut]

Can we keep this out of here, please?

 

Just a small bunch of questions, setting aside the jingoism inherent in your statement. Let us assume that you are correct and we do "tear Saddam a new one."

 

Then what?

 

are we going to nation build in Iraq? are we going to be an occupying force? are we going to work with the resistance in Iraq? how will we placate the Arab rightists who already hate us, and will, after we take out their banker, go to the other banker in the region, the Saudis, whose very existence is based on petrodollars? who will be the ruler of the "new" Iraq?

 

these are just some questions that need to be answered. Oh, I forgot. By asking them, I'm "not with the program and am soft on terrorism."

[The_Man_Of_Steel]

Can we keep this out of here, please?

 

Funny you should say that and then ask a bunch of related questions. If you want to really keep it out then a "no response" would prove to be much more effective, IMHO.

 

Then what? are we going to nation build in Iraq? are we going to be an occupying force? are we going to work with the resistance in Iraq? how will we placate the Arab rightists who already hate us, and will, after we take out their banker, go to the other banker in the region, the Saudis, whose very existence is based on petrodollars? who will be the ruler of the "new" Iraq?

 

These are all valid and important questions, and there are no simple answers or solution. However, if we do NOT do something about the situation, then WE will have a BIG problem on our hands. Now is not the time to sit back, and say; "Live and let live". Sadam is a dictator that HATES America, and everything we stand for, and would rejoice at any harm done to this country. I would not at all be surprised if he had some kind of a role in the 9-11 attack. He is seeking weapons of mass destruction, even your democratic buddies will admit that. Sadam is a madman, and they already have biological weapons. Could you imagine what would happen if we do NOT attempt to take PREVENTIVE action? There are so many countries that hate America and everything we stand for that if we are passive about terrorism then this country would be trampled and stomped on quicker than you can say CGC. I belive that 9-11 showed the world how little resources it takes to have a MAJOR impact. WE MUST DEFEND THIS COUNTRY FOR THE SAKE OF THE FUTURE OF THIS COUNTRY. One more thing, we offer more aid to other countries than any other country in the world, and if it were up to President George Bush, the world would be at peace. Unfortunately, governments and people that hate Americans in other countries don't see it that way.

[Rickdogg]

OMg now there's a part 3!!!!!!

[murph0]

Could this thread get any worse?

 

Brian

[blowout]

only if the coin guys join in

[FlyingDonut]

even your democratic buddies will admit that

 

Just wondering how by raising questions about the outcomes of a war (which, grudgingly, I believe we ought to go in and do) which clearly have not been thought out makes you assume I'm a Dem? I'm actually a centrist , and always have been.

 

Do you know why the US has this problem now? Because under the last Bush administration, we didn't finish the job. There were 400,000 troops in the Iraqi desert, and the Iraqi army was surrendering too fast. Estimates had the US army rolling into Baghdad in a matter of hours, and the brain trust running the show (which is running the show now was afraid of pulling the trigger.

 

And just one more thing, and then I'll get off the soap box. If and when the US invades Iraq it will be the only the second time in our that it attacked another country without being attacked first. I'll send a bunch of free comics to somebody if they can tell me who it was (attacking Indians doesn't count...).

[comicinvestor-migration]

Probably us poor Canucks.

[FlyingDonut]

give the man a cigar! war of 1812...see, if we had won, you'd get to have your mail delivered on time!

[The_Man_Of_Steel]

Vietnam

[FlyingDonut]

nope, although the Gulf of Tonkin resolution was a little shaky, there was an attack on US interests by a foriegn army.

[The_Man_Of_Steel]

Foreign Army? A communist Vietnamese army? Well not being a history major or anything like that I decided to do further research on the web, and could not come up with anything about Vietnam attacking the U.S. before we went to war with them. Anyway here is a link to the MicroSoft learning & Research Vietnam I didn't read the article completely and carefully, so maybe you can find something I missed.

 

P.S. It's good to hear your on the right side of policical issues, do you ever listen to Rush on the radio?

[Joanna]

On CI's answer to my "practical advice" question:

 

Thank you, CI, that's exactly the sort of answer I was looking for. I wanted to hear what you thought should be done on a practical level, and you answered. I don't consider myself as being overly affected by the "crash/not a crash" stuff, because, with only a couple of exceptions, I sell raw DC. DC never attained any heights, so it's sort of chugging along at normal speeds. This crash appears (at this time) to be isolated to Marvel CGCs. All the examples everyone gives, on both sides of the equation, appear to concern only Marvel CGCs.

 

Still, I thought it would be interesting to hear what you'd say on this question. Thank you.

 

On Del's answer:

 

There wasn't an answer. Just more talking about the crash, and mostly talking about those who disagree with him. Del, I thought I'd made it clear that I understood your points on these topics. There were "off the table", as it were. Did you give that answer because you don't have any practical thoughts about dealing with post-crash selling? Or did you just want to repeat yourself again and thought this was a good opportunity?

 

I know that sounds snippy (and smileys don't help, so I abstained), but I was genuinely interested in an answer to the question I asked, and it was frustrating to just get a diatribe against your fellow board members. So I'll ask again: If you were a comic book seller/dealer, what would you do to remain successful in today's market?

 

-- Joanna

[Joanna]

They've also just recently discovered that the Spanish did not sink the Maine. Gotta love the Discovery Channel.

 

-- Joanna