Official Market Crash Thread: Part Two!

[delekkerste]

Which is why, as you can plainly see, I chose the definition of the word relating to our subject matter at hand (the examples of "financial crash" and "population crash" are from the dictionary, not me).

 

Gene

[murph0]

This is just a lovely example of the game of..if it's not his opinion, it's not right. If you try to argue with him, you'll see it's just truly pointless arguing with a man who just loves to hear himself talk and keeps coming up with truckloads of continuous self-congratulatory remarks (has he ever told anyone the time he predicted such and such? yeh only 1 million times).

I'd really like to see this thread die out..so if people could stop replying..I'd appreciate it.

 

Brian

[delekkerste]

keeps coming up with truckloads of continuous self-congratulatory remarks (has he ever told anyone the time he predicted such and such? yeh only 1 million times

 

Go read my 425 posts and see how many "self-congratulatory" remarks you see. I made a couple today to prove a point and, like Clobberintime before you, you blow it up into something that it's not.

 

Even so, why shouldn't I be self-congratulatory? Whose views would you rather believe? Someone who pounded the table for people to get out of the Nasdaq at more than triple its current level or someone who held McLeod stock down 99.5%? You and the other Candides on this Board can say that you're the voice of optimism and I'm just a doom-and-gloom Chicken Little, but really, aren't these labels irrelevant in the end since I've been right while you have been, to quote Jim Cramer, WRONG!!

 

I remain incredulous about your amazing ability to continuously show new ways to display your naivete. As Flying Donut said, please get your head out of the sand because it's obviously cutting off the oxygen supply to your brain.

 

Gene

[murph0]

oh lord..you know maybe you should become a teacher. You try to turn everything into a know-it-all contest. You certainly have a way about yourself that makes you sound like you want people to believe you know EVERYTHING. And yes, I have seen plenty of your posts and I have seen plenty of them say plenty of congratulatory remarks about yourself. I remember a guy in my fraternity like you..when he first joined the house, he'd run around telling everyone about how he climbed such and such a mountain..and he used to be a professional fighter and he beat up so and so..and how he used to surf out in california..the point of the matter is we didn't care, we just wanted to hang out and talk about school or girls..and here this guy is going into rants about what he's done and what's going to do..this is the same thing you're doing..we come on here to talk comics and CGC and you come here trying to tell everyone about all these non-comic related things you've done and how you've read such and such and you're a master of economics or some other bull..and then when we tell you we don't care we just like comics..you in essence tell us we're wrong. And that..is the reason I have problems with you...you REALLY come off like a guy who needs attention and can't really prove a point without going into some kinda post telling us why your opinion is better then ours.

 

Brian

[murph0]

So in summary.. I didn't come to the CGC Comic board for an economic lesson. I didn't come here to hear how we're wasting time buying comics b/c they're all gonna be worthless, and I certainly didn't come here to hear about what market trend you predicted with the US dollar in 95 or whatever the hell it was. I come here to talk to people about what they're buying, trade/buy stuff with other members, see what others have, talk about what issues are hot/cold, etc.

 

Brian

[Rickdogg]

DL & Murph...GIVE ME MORE GIVE ME MORE! Good comedy while studying for chemistry

[hammer-migration]

In honor of the Market crash thread - which I think is the longest one in the history of this Forum . / Please see the attachment .

[murph0]

I would, but I'd rather see the thread die so I'll keep my posting on it to a minimum. Err..thx for making me reply

 

Brian

[clobberintime]

I personally love the new fudge centered oreos. My investment broker has assured me that they will never crash.

[comicinvestor-migration]

To me a "Crash" implies that the product drops in value, to significantly below a reasonable price.

 

That's fine Phil, but that's not the accepted definition by any financial analyst I know or have heard of. You can't let arbitrary "reasonable price" opinions into this, or else we'll naver, ever have a crash, because somewhere on this planet will be one solitary guy who believes that prices are still not below "reasonable levels".

 

You gotta stick with facts and figures, and if prices spike wildly, then fall back to Earth, that's still a crash and indicative of the majority of such occurences. Plus, you are confusing CGC sales with historical comic sales, which are two different markets with two totally different buying segments. When you're paying big bucks for grading fees, shipping and insurance, you can't compare the prices realized for raw comics, which includes none of these additional entry costs.

 

Check the initial prices on the "new market" CGC books (or coins or sportscards), and then follow the trendline to today's prices. That's a textbook definition of a Market Crash if I've ever seen one.

[clobberintime]

Yeah the crash continues! There is definitely a crash when cgc prices for high grade books are only double guide and for vf or less only bring guide.

[Joanna]

CI & Del, your views on the crash are really, really clear. But just saying "there's a crash!" isn't all that helpful. What do you suggest on a practical level? Should people stop slabbing books and just sell them raw? Should people making a living selling comics just stop immediately and find other work? How do you think the average dealer should deal with this crash?

 

-- Joanna

[comicinvestor-migration]

There is definitely a crash when cgc prices for high grade books are only double guide and for vf or less only bring guide.

 

Thanks for admitting you're wrong clobber, since it takes a big man to openly state that falling from 20X Guide to 2X Guide or lower is quite a serious crash and enough to make specs run for the hills.

 

If a stock market abrutly fell from a Index Rating of 10,000 to 1000, I would imagine this sort of conversation wouldn't even be needed and the crash would be self-evident. Although now that I think about it, even during the MASDAQ melt-down, some whacko were still telling people to buy, buy, buy!!

 

Glad to see you're finally seeing the light.

[comicinvestor-migration]

CI & Del, your views on the crash are really, really clear. But just saying "there's a crash!" isn't all that helpful. What do you suggest on a practical level?

 

Good question Joanna, and if you're a pure collector who couldn't care less if his entire collection lost 80% overnight, then keep on buying. If not, here's what I suggest:

 

1) Do not hold large quantities of CGC comics if you do not want/need them. There are tons of people under the mistaken view that CGC comics will hold their values and hoarding them for potential trades and flipping is a good call. I say keep what you want and sell what you don't, as the music is about to end and JP's got the only chair.

 

2) Sell raw and make more money. With CGC fees eating into an already-declining profit margin, many sellers are making more money selling potential CGC 9.2 books raw than they would submitting them. There is still a window of opportunity to get both "submitting specs" and raw collectors fighting for the same book. This is very common with NM Byrne X-Men, with raw books regularly selling for more than an equivalent CGC 9.4 (), even without taking the grading/shipping fees into account.

 

The real key is just the very logical "don't put your eggs into one basket", whereby making sure your future economic health IS NOT inherent on something as flaky and volatile as CGC comics. The bloom is definitely off the CGC rose, investors and speculators are dropping like flies, so watch out kids.

[delekkerste]

But just saying "there's a crash!" isn't all that helpful. What do you suggest on a practical level? Should people stop slabbing books and just sell them raw?

 

What people decide to do depends on their own situation. However, while saying "there's a crash!" might not be the most helpful thing to say, it is more helpful than saying "all is well, go about your business like always". If me and CI are wrong, all people lose is opportunity cost. If the bulls are wrong, people will lose real money (as they have been lately).

 

It's clear that there are a lot of newbies and recently returned-to-the-fold collectors out there and while the old hands may be sticking to buying raw books and not overbidding on CGC books, there are a lot of people out there throwing caution to the wind. Hearing people angrily denounce the possibility that the market could fall or that the long-term fundamentals of the hobby are not sound, or to hear people try to justify a book's ridiculous price because there is a movie coming out does these people a tremendous disservice. Labeling people "Chicken Little" or "doom and gloomers" doesn't actually dispute the many valid concerns that have been presented.

 

Whether my forecast and the other bearish forecasts come to pass is, of course, uncertain. However, the case I (and others) have made is not only crystal clear, but also backed up by substantive and rigorous analysis. I do not see the bullish camp offering up any pithier wisdom than "I'm an optimist", "I can't see prices ever coming down" or "this character will stay popular and be in demand forever".

 

If people want to rationalize buying high and holding or selling low, that's fine. But don't assume that everyone shares a high tolerance for losing money. Not everyone on the Board has a real estate portfolio or lives in the same neighborhood as a gazillionaire corporate criminal like Clark McLeod.

 

Gene

[g-man]

re: If people want to rationalize buying high and holding or selling low, that's fine. But don't assume that everyone shares a high tolerance for losing money.

 

 

Ask Shuley, he does this all the time!

[comicinvestor-migration]

Yeah, but we're like Military Doctors, only looking to help those that can be saved.

[Gorgo]

Well said delekkerste! Your reference to technical/analytical research cuts through all the opinions I see here on this forum.

[snizzenfixit]

The price of Chips Ahoy cookies recently crashed at the supermarket.

 

Hehe, That is funny.

 

Phil

 

 

[snizzenfixit]

The ONLY relevant question is whether prices went from point A and fell to point B.

 

Says who? You? Just because Gene says this is the only relevant question does not make it so. It may be the only relevant one to you, but like I said I have my own opinion.

 

---

Gene said

I have not seen gasoline prices (or Chips Ahoy cookies for that matter) rise 1000% and then fall 90% like we've seen with some "hot" CGC books, so this example is also IRRELEVANT.

 

Yet he also said

I don't see any qualifiers in that definition about valuation, "reasonable" prices, pre-CGC levels or anything else coming into play.

---

 

I don't see any qualifiers in that definition about 1000% rise and 90% fall.

 

I have seen gas prices rise and then fall sharply, which is YOUR definition of a crash. Please don't make a statement about "The dictionary definition" of a crash and then stray from that very definition yourself.

 

And while you may be a newcomer to CGC,

 

That would be an assumption on your part.

 

Phil