Money Is No Object!!

[Marvelous]

Most of what you just described involved modern comics, where there will ALWAYS be speculators of some kind or another. I cringe everytime I see record prices acheived for an Ultimate Spider-Man #1 or a Batman RRP #608 or whatever the latest craze is. Time will judge those books.

 

'zackly...

 

Ditto...

[rob_react]

Record prices for common bronze age books and new collectors (sorry, there are no collectors anymore, just investors and speculators, right?) certainly don't support it.

 

No, and it was not meant to be anything more than some interesting anecdotes that may be clues to what is going on in the larger picture. I see that you and Rob are quick to dismiss my conclusions, but that doesn't necessarily make them untrue.

 

Gene

 

Gene I don't "quickly" dismiss anything. If I "quickly" dismissed things I don't think I would have waited a year to comment on your opinions. I would have just moved on from the get-go. The plain fact is I just think your predictions are overly dire. And that's the bottom line. Everything else is I could say is just adding to the noise around here, so I'll let it go at that.

[Foolkiller]

Actually, one thing that is sort of perplexing about the whole market crash thread/discussion is that there isn't a stated prediction concerning what exactly is going to happen. There isn't a hard and fast statement that books are going to crash. The discussion usually centers around somebody saying that the books are reaching potential overvalued levels and others saying there isn't going to be a crash and lobbing up examples of a new record price. This example then is turned around to be evidence of the fact that a crash is coming because the price paid is unrealistic.

 

I agree with Rob in that I think Gene might be overstating the case about the situation of the industry, but I certainly think, as I've always maintained, that many of these top dollar prices are out of whack. And no, I'm not referring to things like the diamond run AF 15, that is an extremely unique piece, but things like Iron Fist 14 or even to a lessor degree the wide gap on books like TOS 39 9.0 that recently appeared, should represent some concern for those who bought those books at those prices, if they did so for investment. There is a ceiling for everything. I think it's unwise to believe that this market, or any other market, can become so severely overvalued without any correction.

[hobbes]

Not only do you see a steep decline at some point in the near (?) future for the value of all comics, but you see it never recovering and fading away into obscurity. Maybe I've read you wrong?

 

This caught my eye. It brought to light the one question I have for those on the forums who believe there is a correction in the market or a full-on crash coming. Gene, JC or anyone else, thoughts? I am genuinely curious.

 

Russ

[g-man]

lately some not so hard to find books have been getting some serious $$, i.e. IF #14, DD #168, etc...ASM #129 is going through the roof in pretty much all grades. Other BA books like TOD (not 10) and Defenders, etc have been leveling off. Late 70s DDs are $30 in 9.6 where $75 and up wasn't out of the ? not 2 long ago. IMO, trends develop and take the market in different directions. Right now, SA FFs dominate these boards along with JIMs due to Mark's/Bob's books....Next week/month it will be something else (hopefully some more ASM and high grade DCs! ).

 

And as with most things....it is all about the $$$.

[qualitycomix]

That's a dangerous way to think, especially with little "new blood" coming in. I think the "collector base" is what is gonna be hit "as time takes it's toll on them".

 

----------------------

I could not disagree with you more. The recent influx of Marvel related movies has created a whole new generation of Marvelites. Adults are being reintroduced to their childhood and buying what they remember. Hopefully, knowledgeable forumites and comic collectors can guide them away from the disreputable sellers and bad investments.

 

A new generation of kids are growing up with Spider-Man, X-Men and others as I did when I was a kid watching Saturday morning cartoons. They are also playing comic video games and Heroclix (like D+D but for comic characters). So I think that the base will be there. IMHO, It's a natural evolution that when this generation grows up, they will have money to burn and will take comics to dizzying new heights.

 

I also think that the other reason that there has been some additional appreciation (ie rate of return) on comics is that CGC has created an environment where investors don't have to be the most knowledgeable comic gurus on the face of the earth. They can invest in comics as they do in coins and cards knowing that they have liquidity and market acceptance as to the grade when they go to sell the books. Also, dealers can no longer put on rose colored glasses when they buy books as they did before CGC!!!

 

I do see some damage being done to the market by speculators who don't know any better, but the market will weed out these few, and it appears to be concentrated on movie hype and bronze/modern books. And time has proven that if you buy the right books, it really doesn't matter at what price (there are limits of course).

[qualitycomix]

IMO, trends develop and take the market in different directions.

---------

I agree. A crash discussion is pointless, because every genre/era has had some pullback at some point and will have pullbacks in the future. The problem is that any pullback in one genre/era will be extrapolated by the doomsayers to reflect the entire market.

 

I also think that maybe some forumites have been burned by the stock market or know people who have and are looking for signs that the comic market is going thru the same trends. There is a big difference if that is your underlying premise. Stocks are backed up by a company's bottom line, supposedly. There was absolutely no way that many of these stocks could ever make what investors were asking of them back in 1999/2000. On the other hand, comics are backed up by 2 things - supply and demand. There are no extraneous issues to be dealt with such as the Federal Reserve (interest rates) or new tax laws or foreign governments or tariffs or competition etc.

 

On top of that, there aren't very many big $$$ comic investors currently in this market. You would not believe some of the $$$ that are out there being invested in coins and cards. If and when investors see the appreciation (rate of return) of comics and start investing, there is little doubt that the market will explode because the supply of great books is JUST NOT THERE to support a larger investor pool.

[joe_collector]

IMHO, It's a natural evolution that when this generation grows up, they will have money to burn and will take comics to dizzying new heights.

 

Are you serious about this?

 

Why would children who were weaned on super-hero DVDs, movies and video games, suddenly grow up and start paying through the nose for old comics?

 

It would seem to be obvious that they'd be picking up Mint first-edition copies of the video games and DVDs they loved as children, just like we have with comics.

 

Any other conclusion flies in the face of all known logic surrounding collectibles in general.

[Foolkiller]

I think the notion that comics will be taken to "dizzying new heights" is the polar opposite of the gloom and doom forecast.

 

If comics go to those extremes, I think it will be quite amazing. One of the biggest concerns for the back issue market continues to be that there is little in the growth of new books. Most of the kids I've encountered are interested in the characters, but have no interest in the comics themselves. Unfortunately, this is also true for most of the peers in my age group who like the Spider Man movie and things like that, but find comics overly expensive (for what they are) and not something they see themselves developing as an interest.

[qualitycomix]

Because that's is the origin of the characters they love. Right now, they don't have the $$$ to buy them, but as they hit their stride....

 

I don't think mass produced DVDs and movies are going to have the same collectability as comics. Now that would fly in the face of logic!

[joe_collector]

I also think that the other reason that there has been some additional appreciation (ie rate of return) on comics is that CGC has created an environment where investors don't have to be the most knowledgeable comic gurus on the face of the earth. They can invest in comics as they do in coins and cards knowing that they have liquidity and market acceptance as to the grade when they go to sell the books.

 

You do realize that both the graded coin and sportscard market crashed hard, and even now, have not fully recovered? When compared to other "investments" these resulted in horrific losses, and bring to mind that old joke:

 

How do you make a million dollars?

 

Start with $10 million and invest long-term in graded collectibles.

 

Here's a pearl of advice: The time to be truly scared of declining values is exactly when the Joe Sixpacks start believing that "collectibles grading takes the mystery out of investment and you don't have to be knowledgeable to make money".

 

At that point you've got an unsustainable bubble (as happened in coins and cards) and it's just a matter of time before these neophyte investors realize the truth:

 

Being able to read a number on a plastic slab is no substitute for knowledge, experience, and market acumen.

[joe_collector]

Because that's is the origin of the characters they love. Right now, they don't have the $$$ to buy them, but as they hit their stride....

 

I don't think mass produced DVDs and movies are going to have the same collectability as comics. Now that would fly in the face of logic!

 

Do you really believe this tripe, or are you just doing a comedy act at my expense? No one can possibly believe this, as there have been numerous studies and works on collectibles, and what I said (and many others on here agree with) is totally sound.

 

Nostalgia and collectibles in general are driven by what we enjoy and remember from our childhood. It's a seed of the "Golden Age" (10-14) of youth, and far more prevalent in males than females.

 

Since kids don't read comics anymore, you have to pulling my leg right?

 

P.S. Check out some of the prices of sealed Cart games on EBay, or ask some of our resident video game collectible gurus. This is set to explode in the future.

[qualitycomix]

I actually think that there has already been a pullback/crash (whatever you want to call it), in the 8.5 - 9.2 grades on most books. Collectors/investors have become a lot more picky. If you can't afford the 9.4s and up, the 9.2s and 9.0s are cheap by comparison to what they were pre-CGC. That is a blanket statement, of course, which could be refuted by specific examples, but I'm referring to the overall market, not 2 or 3 sales.

[qualitycomix]

Well, you can invest in the DVDs and video games. I'll stick to comics.

[Foolkiller]

Q:

 

I agree with this part that CGC stuff 8.5 to 9.2 is starting to drop off in price in the sense that they are coming closer to guide value now, and there is certainly less of a premium placed on the books... which is fine. I'm certainly thrilled about this.

 

However, kids today are not going to grow up, have tons of money and then decide to put in... comics. I truly believe those in our 20s now are basically the last vestiges of those that grew up during a new comics boom. If you remember the 90s, the early 90s, comics were hot... okay, if you were 10-16 during the 90s, perhaps comics have a real meaning to you and you'll come back to the hobby. Since then, there's been a steady decline. There will always be a market for the back issue, but to say there's going to be this mass influx is quite honestly not grounded in reality. This is unfortunate, because I wish we were experiencing a great new wave of collectors, but sadly, this isn't going to happen.

[Marvelous]

I also think that the other reason that there has been some additional appreciation (ie rate of return) on comics is that CGC has created an environment where investors don't have to be the most knowledgeable comic gurus on the face of the earth. They can invest in comics as they do in coins and cards knowing that they have liquidity and market acceptance as to the grade when they go to sell the books.

 

You do realize that both the graded coin and sportscard market crashed hard, and even now, have not fully recovered? When compared to other "investments" these resulted in horrific losses, and bring to mind that old joke:

 

How do you make a million dollars?

 

Start with $10 million and invest long-term in graded collectibles.

 

Here's a pearl of advice: The time to be truly scared of declining values is exactly when the Joe Sixpacks start believing that "collectibles grading takes the mystery out of investment and you don't have to be knowledgeable to make money".

 

At that point you've got an unsustainable bubble (as happened in coins and cards) and it's just a matter of time before these neophyte investors realize the truth:

 

Being able to read a number on a plastic slab is no substitute for knowledge, experience, and market acumen.

 

I am hoping for this "Great Comic Market Crash" that many of you have been talking about so I can buy all my favorite Bronze and Silver Age comics for cheap. When is it going to happen so I can start buying? This is great, I can't wait! Oh Happy Days!

[underthebigw]

IMHO, It's a natural evolution that when this generation grows up, they will have money to burn and will take comics to dizzying new heights.

 

Are you serious about this?

 

Why would children who were weaned on super-hero DVDs, movies and video games, suddenly grow up and start paying through the nose for old comics?

 

It would seem to be obvious that they'd be picking up Mint first-edition copies of the video games and DVDs they loved as children, just like we have with comics.

 

Any other conclusion flies in the face of all known logic surrounding collectibles in general.

 

I'm with Gene and JC on this one. A couple of years ago, I was optimistic about the prospect of kids being drawn into the hobby through DVD's, cartoons, etc. At the time I was watching my friends' sons growing up and saw some signs that their interest was transitioning to the actual comics. Guess what? Never panned out, despite their having been exposed to back issues, tpb's and other collections. As far as they're concerned, Spiderman, Bats, the JLA, etc, are all video characters. Will there always be some interest in the major characters' comic appearances by a small group of collectors who can make this leap? Sure. Will there ever be a whole generation of collectors who are motivated by the incredibly fond memories of reading comics in their childhood? No way. I've used the analogy of Westerns before, but it so relevant, it's scary. Twenty-forty years ago, it was almost unimaginable for collectors of Western memorabilia that there would so little interest in collectibles related to Western screen, radio, and TV stars. They thought they were ingrained into American culture, had been a source of interest for over 100 years, and would always be a mainstay in the collectibles field. Now, all but the rarest of Western collectibles pursued by a small hard-core group are at bargain prices. Find me anyone born after 1965 who gives a rat's-a** about westerns. Ask anyone under the age of 40 who Tom Mix or Bobby Benson and you'll get a shrug of the shoulders. I'm so sure that comics will parallel this trend , that I'm only looking for bargains right now and absolutely refuse to pay over guide for anything, no matter how high the grade. Unless, of course, it's something so important to me that I don't care how much it costs and am ready to lose every cent I spend on it. That's going to be my approach for the next five years or so, when I'm convinced there will be so much new HG material on the market from collectors aging out of the hobby, that prices will dive.

[Marvelous]

Well, you can invest in the DVDs and video games. I'll stick to comics.

 

A person will have to do more than invest in DVDs and video games. They will have to invest in the equipment that allows you to play it, because like the record player and 8-track tape player they will be almost impossible to find. I will stick to comics as well. I can't wait for the crash so I can get my hands on some cheap comics. I am practically drooling here.

[Foolkiller]

I will stick to comics as well. I can't wait for the crash so I can get my hands on some cheap comics. I am practically drooling here.

 

This is part of the problem... I think people completely, completely misunderstand the concept behind the crash and what it really is all about. It won't be that FF# 25 will start selling for 25 cents. However, if you paid $3500 for 9.4, you might be surprised when it only sells for $2500. That, in my mind, is a crash, correction whatever. To assume it means cheap comics for the silver and bronze is a bitr of a misunderstanding, and I don't think that's the manner in which it's being discussed.

[Marvelous]

IMHO, It's a natural evolution that when this generation grows up, they will have money to burn and will take comics to dizzying new heights.

 

Are you serious about this?

 

Why would children who were weaned on super-hero DVDs, movies and video games, suddenly grow up and start paying through the nose for old comics?

 

It would seem to be obvious that they'd be picking up Mint first-edition copies of the video games and DVDs they loved as children, just like we have with comics.

 

Any other conclusion flies in the face of all known logic surrounding collectibles in general.

 

I'm with Gene and JC on this one. A couple of years ago, I was optimistic about the prospect of kids being drawn into the hobby through DVD's, cartoons, etc. At the time I was watching my friends' sons growing up and saw some signs that their interest was transitioning to the actual comics. Guess what? Never panned out, despite their having been exposed to back issues, tpb's and other collections. As far as they're concerned, Spiderman, Bats, the JLA, etc, are all video characters. Will there always be some interest in the major characters' comic appearances by a small group of collectors who can make this leap? Sure. Will there ever be a whole generation of collectors who are motivated by the incredibly fond memories of reading comics in their childhood? No way. I've used the analogy of Westerns before, but it so relevant, it's scary. Twenty-forty years ago, it was almost unimaginable for collectors of Western memorabilia that there would so little interest in collectibles related to Western screen, radio, and TV stars. They thought they were ingrained into American culture, had been a source of interest for over 100 years, and would always be a mainstay in the collectibles field. Now, all but the rarest of Western collectibles pursued by a small hard-core group are at bargain prices. Find me anyone born after 1965 who gives a rat's-a** about westerns. Ask anyone under the age of 40 who Tom Mix or Bobby Benson and you'll get a shrug of the shoulders. I'm so sure that comics will parallel this trend , that I'm only looking for bargains right now and absolutely refuse to pay over guide for anything, no matter how high the grade. Unless, of course, it's something so important to me that I don't care how much it costs and am ready to lose every cent I spend on it. That's going to be my approach for the next five years or so, when I'm convinced there will be so much new HG material on the market from collectors aging out of the hobby, that prices will dive.

 

I think the comic collecting market has always been small, even before DVDs and video games. When I was a young lad in the early 80s I only knew of a few guys in my school that actively read and collected comic books. In my class of 50 only one of my friends collected comics. So the fact that no one sees uddles of new youngsters in their comic book stores doesn't concern me too much. I really don't think you can compare Tom Mix to Spider-man or Superman. The reason is that Spider-man and Superman have spanned 40-60+ years over many generations and are still going strong.