1985-1989 Coin Market = 2000-2004 Comic Market?

[comicartfan]

I agree with some of the items that were pointed out, but i also think that people fail to see the bigger picture. Pointing to real estate or the stock market (which is not even a fair comparison) and saying the Great Crash is coming is insane. Comics are a "hobby" that is not related to "gossip of Marvel is buying Cross Gen....sell " or "interest rates are good, buy more comics" ! - Does anyone realize how stupid that sounds ?!

 

Stupid to a dyed-in-the-wool fanboy, perhaps. Greed and fear drives all markets, whether for slabbed funny books or the price of tea in China. Comics are most certainly not immune to cultural mood or macroeconomic considerations, either. The sooner people wake up to this, the better. Where did I say that greed or fear was an issue ? And what is the comment "stupid to a dyed-in the wool fanboy comment supposed to mean ?! Because I disgree with you, that makes me a myopic insufficiently_thoughtful_person ?! If you read my post, you will see that i was pointing out how comparing stock or real estate is unfair.

 

 

And I have to say something to Gene. If you're convinced that the market is going to crash and that we are all doomed..that we are going to be victims of our own greed, ignorance or whatever you believe, then why don't you get out, cash out your art work, comics and etc...and leave the hobby ?!!

 

Maybe because I didn't "invest" in these items for their monetary value in the first place? Did you EVER think while you are up on your soapbox that the rest of us enjoy comics/art/collectibles too ? That the prices being paid is just competition?! Maybe because I buy books and artwork because I enjoy them? Maybe because I didn't spend so much on books that it would be worth my valuable time to make the effort of selling them off? By the way, I've bought all of 2 slabbed books in the last year (for a total cost of $200) and have sold off a lot more than that. I have been, by far, a net seller. Don't presume to know my actions or motivations. You post thread after thread of the impending crash, how we are all blindly "investing" in comics that are not going to hold their value, yet you sit there and say I don't know your motivation?! - Enlighten me !

 

Gene

[comicartfan]

And another thing...why are you so motivated to be correct ? - You contiune to argue this point of the "Great Comic Crash" that I think that you have some strong desire to be proved right. Whether you are constantly being told you're wrong in your life or not, i'll never know...nor do i really care....Say that this crash DOES happen and it happens you were right all along..would that make your life complete to say "See, told you so !" ? - will you post on your forehead so everyone that sees you will know that this was the guy that correctly predicted the comic crash ? -

 

I am really curious was to what your motivation is to get people to "wake up" as you said in an earlier post.

[Murph]

Did you see that Showcase 55 9.4 that went up on eBay extremely briefly today? I only remember this because there was an ASM 6 9.4 listed as well. Don't know what the problem was..

 

Brian

[14 of spades]

consider me a quintessential CGC "spec".

 

summer 2002 - i discovered ebay and shortly after discovered CGC-graded comics.

 

at the time i had some dated knowledge of comics - having collected from the 1985-89 era.

 

sept-oct 2002 i dumped a bunch of money into some SA X-Men CGCs in anticipation of the 2003 X-Men movie hype. it was fun. i enjoyed daily browsing of comics, watching and hoping for GOOD DEALS.

 

i ended up selling my books in 2003 successfully - i rode the X-Men hype bubble and my END PRICES were a very healthy 150% (e.g. $270 for a book i paid $180 for - an XMen 12 CGC 8.0) of what i paid for just months earlier.

 

but after the sales ended... WHAT AN ANTI-CLIMAX!

 

after ebay fees, paypal fees, paying customs, WORRYING about postal mishaps - receiving a cracked case and having to pay to re-holder it, having a CUSTOMER RECEIVE a cracked case despite heavy packaging - and subsequently refunding that customer's money... i came out EVEN!

 

WHAT A HEADACHE!

 

i haven't bought a CGC since. my money went into CGCs i had no interest in (mind you - i still have and keep my ungraded books - and have added a few books to that mix) but my money IS OUT.

 

i'm a former CGC speculator who dabbed in it cause it was fun at the time. it's just not fun. the novelty about ebay and searching for CGC deals is gone. even if i could keep ALL of the 150% return - i wouldn't try to flip more CGC's. IT'S NOT WORTH THE HEADACHE.

 

while i firmly believe that those who are truly COLLECTORS should have no qualms about spending crazy money about their grails, i'd like to announce that there are individuals (like me previously) who put money (and ebay BIDS) into the market that artifically create demand for CGC books. but for me, not any more.

 

MY CGC SPECULATING MONEY IS OUT.

 

[comicartfan]

Did you see that Showcase 55 9.4 that went up on eBay extremely briefly today? I only remember this because there was an ASM 6 9.4 listed as well. Don't know what the problem was..

 

Brian

 

no i didn't. I wonder if it was the same one that was listed last week and was pulled ...

[Calamerica]

I've made this offer before, and I'll do it again. Give me five grand. I'll guarantee you the risk free rate of return (whatever the six month T-Bill rate is), and you get everything above that up to eight grand in six months.

 

Everything OVER eight grand I get to keep. I'll do it solely flipping books. I'll happily and merrily make my cash this way

 

This I understand and agree with you here Donut. Good point. And you made your point without too much fanfare and fluff. Good one here.

 

CAL

[Calamerica]

Just like the stock market, some people are willing to take the risk, and some aren't. It shouldn't divide the hobby, but rather be an interesting discussion topic.

 

 

Rob

 

Your last sentence quoted above is one of if not THE most important point for all of us Forum Members: let's not be divided in this still-great hobby but be more "together". It should not happen to comic book collectors: The inability to be a more accepting group of those who may have other ways of collecting/dealing comic books.

 

I am no real big fan of that guy, Rodney King( the cops beat him and the first trial acquittals of the Cops resulted in the L.A. riots) put on his friend's best silk suit and got on TV and said " Can't we all just get along?". Can we???

 

CAL

[Calamerica]

agree with Gene and Vince on the crash theory. I just think that everybody is missing the bigger picture here - the back issue market for lower and mid grade books is the same as its always been, and is essentially unaffected by what happens with the plastic slabbed books we all love to see

 

Again, Donut you got this one right too. That bigger picture consits of a many-tiered comic book market for many kinds of participants. That is the way it is going to be for the foreseeable future. This is even discussed on another current Thread in part by Currincomics, who is another fine Forum Member who I think is good for the hobby.

 

CAL

[drbanner]

I'm wondering....how long do we have to wait for the "crash" before the doom-sayers will say " Gee, I guess we were wrong after all". Based on what I'm reading about the coin crash, it took place about 5 years after grading started. So, if we don't get that "crash" let's say by the end of this year or maybe the middle of next year......would that be long enough? Or, do you guys need more time than that?

 

Know why the rain dance always works? B/C eventually, it rains!!

 

We've been hearing about TGC for almost two years now...and for months last fall JC gleefully carried a sig line exclaiming he would fiddle while the comic book market crashed and burned in 2004. Unfortunately, record-setting sales have made him realize how wrong his prediction was, and has now caused him to back off and subscribe to Gene's more cautious "slow decline" theory and abandon the "crash and burn" prediction. But don't worry, I'm sure we'll get to hear about TGC hour after hour, day after day, week after week, month after month...what fun.

[delekkerste]

Where did I say that greed or fear was an issue ?

 

You didn't - I did. The sooner you recognize that emotion and psychology drives all markets, the sooner you'll see that the comic market can be compared to other collectibles and, in fact, to all other competitive markets. Don't presume that these comparisons are, in your words, "insane" or "unfair". Sure, there are differences, but they are certainly NOT invalid comparisons.

 

 

And what is the comment "stupid to a dyed-in the wool fanboy comment supposed to mean ?!

 

It means you're denigrated my analysis as "stupid" (your word, not mine), because you can't separate your love of comics from an objective analysis. I love comics too, but I don't harbor any illusions about their present or future value. You may disagree with me, but don't call my analysis "stupid", "unfair" or "insane" if you can't see past your fanboy rose-colored glasses.

 

 

Did you EVER think while you are up on your soapbox that the rest of us enjoy comics/art/collectibles too ? That the prices being paid is just competition?!

 

I have no doubt that a lot of people do just buy what they like with discretionary funds and are not counting on continued price appreciation. However, not everyone is like that. Just look at the Boards today - some new threads this morning on "should I invest in Gold or Silver" and "is SA JLA a good investment". I know people in this hobby who are in over their heads. I know people, some who are supporting families, who have gone to extremes to support their buying habits.

 

As for competition, I couldn't care less. I'm virtually done with collecting slabs - I'm not posting on this subject so I can save a few hundred bucks at most. I'm practically cured of "high grade disease". And it's a great feeling - I'm happy just buying the Masterworks or TPBs and pocketing the difference in cash. I expect that I'll continue to downsize my slabbed collection over time as well.

 

 

And another thing...why are you so motivated to be correct ?

 

Better than to be motivated to be wrong, no?

 

Contrary to what you may believe, 95% of the Boards does not hate and disagree with me. I think it's pretty much split down the middle - I've received lots of PMs from people who don't always vocalize their support here - the "silent majority" as they were. I think the points that I bring up are interesting and thought-provoking, whether or not you agree with me. There are people who disagree with me and will still attest to that...some have even testified to that effect in the past. Yet, I know that a lot of people would like to see me just curl up in a dark corner somewhere and disappear - why is that? Do they not like real debate? Would they rather the Boards be one long, non-stop circle jerk about admiring Captain_Tripps' registry and recommending which books may spike due to movie hype (i.e., nothing of real substance)? I think a lot of people are too emotionally and/or financially vested in the comics market and feel insecure and threatened when they hear things they don't want to hear.

 

Are there too many "Crash" threads? Well, possibly, BUT it's not like other topics don't get recycled JUST as frequently and it's not like there aren't even more "Is this a good investment?" threads out there. Furthermore, there has clearly been an influx of new members to the Boards for whom this thread, for example, may have been their first such Crash thread. The Crash threads just tend to get people more riled up, so they remember them more. And is that necessarily a bad thing? Again, most of these threads are standalone, so it's not like anyone is forcing anyone like DavidKing623 to read these...

 

Gene

[joe_collector]

MY CGC SPECULATING MONEY IS OUT.

 

Excellent post, and this illustrates the basic framework of maintaining a speculator-driven, hype-focused market:

 

Convince the buyers to hold these funny books long-term.

 

I brought this up before, but if you go to many of the larger, more investment-oriented dealer sites, you'll see many references toward buyers holding their "comic investments" for 5, 10 or more years before "cashing in".

 

Otherwise, they'll buy some CGC book, then a few months later sell it on Heritage or EBay for a "profit", and then later discover that they actually made zilch (or lost money), and find they DO NOT want or need the hassle of being dealers, shippers/receivers or online sellers. Then it's back to whatever else they were doing before getting suckered into buying comics as an investment vehicle.

 

If you can convince the "general investor" to hold these books long-term, and never experience "market realities", then you can foist a lot more CGC books his or her way.

[FFB]

Yes, your brilliant research and analysis has impressed me so much it keeps me up at night. I deal with expert witnesses in IP cases who perform complex market analyses on a regular basis. If one of them tried to pass off an expert report that looked like your "crash theory," I'd fire him.

 

It won't happen. The way you'll know that they were finally proven wrong is when their whining has gradually increased in shrillness and pitch such that it is only audible to dogs and rodents.

 

Methinks thou doth protest too much. I suppose you're feeling a little threatened that someone might burst the bubble world you're living in. I guess that's understandable.

 

Gene

[FFB]

JC,

 

If this is the extent of your crash theory, then I have no problem with it. The comic book industry will always have sub-genres that become fads and then fade away. It is the notion that the crash of one particular fad will crash the entire industry that I don't buy.

 

Considering people have been predicting the doom of comic collecting since the mid 70's or perhaps even earlier ( I have no way of knowing) I really have to take the negative side with a grain of salt.

 

Where do you guys get this stuff?

 

Here's what I told others would happen:

 

1) To stay far away from the 1980's Independants.

 

2) To sell their Valiants and stop any and all new comic speculation.

 

3) To stop paying insane multiples for CGC "investments".

 

At no point did I ever say something as inane as predicting the "doom of comic collecting", but rather I correctly identified "bubble markets" (not that it's difficult) and then proceeded to watch them burn out.

 

P.S. In each of the above scenarios, my comments were greeted with derision, and being repeatedly told that I was "missing the boat". But hey, if everyone could see this, we'd never have boom/bust occurences.

[Marvelous]

I pity the fool that takes the time to read this thread from the beginning.

[Bonds25]

Did you see that Showcase 55 9.4 that went up on eBay extremely briefly today? I only remember this because there was an ASM 6 9.4 listed as well. Don't know what the problem was..

 

Brian

 

no i didn't. I wonder if it was the same one that was listed last week and was pulled ...

 

It was. Ebay pulled them in record time.

[greggy]

Did you see that Showcase 55 9.4 that went up on eBay extremely briefly today? I only remember this because there was an ASM 6 9.4 listed as well. Don't know what the problem was..

 

Brian

 

no i didn't. I wonder if it was the same one that was listed last week and was pulled ...

 

It was. Ebay pulled them in record time.

They're up again so start bidding!

[delekkerste]

Yes, your brilliant research and analysis has impressed me so much it keeps me up at night. I deal with expert witnesses in IP cases who perform complex market analyses on a regular basis. If one of them tried to pass off an expert report that looked like your "crash theory," I'd fire him.

 

Forgive me for stating the obvious, but this is a comic book forum, not a courtroom. Obviously, I'm not going to write something in the style and structure of a dissertation or research paper - not even my supporters would bother reading through that. Keep your own bloated ego in check and get a grip, pal.

 

Gene

[Foolkiller]

football:

 

dude, you can't compare an expert witness testimony to Gene's posting of a graph on an internet message board. I deal with expert witnesses everyday as well... and I wouldn't expect their data to be presented in quite the same fashion in an informal setting as I would if they were prepping for a case.

 

I want to stay out of the arena of personal insults when engaging in debates, but I'm not a fan of using this analogy to rip on Gene.

[Marvelous]

okay , now were getting somewhere.... so which books/genres/ages exactly WILL crash.... and which (like your off-grade comics) wont?? Lets stop arguing over generalities like ALL comic collecting will crash etc.....

 

Books that will/have crash/ed in price meet all five of these categories:

 

1) Post 1966

2) 9.6 or lower

3) Non "key" issues (example - ASM 121 is a key, ASM 111 is not)

4) Relatively "common" books

5) CGC slabbed

 

If you've got a 9.6 or lower book that hits all five of these categories, the price has died.

 

If you've got a run of the mill, unslabbed, VF+ copy of Amazing Spider-Man 140, you're going to be able to sell it for 60-70% of Guide, which is the same percentage it has sold for for the past 20 years.

 

What about;

 

6) 9.8-10.0 moderns like Spawn #1, Batman 608 etc...

[joe_collector]

I want to stay out of the arena of personal insults when engaging in debates, but I'm not a fan of using this analogy to rip on Gene.