Moderns that are heating up on ebay! 71 71

[Prince Namor]

I've tried to stay out of the "estimated print run" discussion, but I can't help myself any longer.

 

1. It seems to me that you're all trying to estimate a print run of a particular incentive variant based on the Diamond order numbers. Which then is bumped up to try to estimate worldwide orders.

 

2. Then, the order number is used to apply the stated incentive ratio to determine the estimated print run.

 

The problem is that you're using the wrong inputs.

 

The issue with #1 is that you're assuming that global orders is what Marvel cares about to determine the print run.

 

The issue with #2 is that you're assuming that Marvel only prints to the estimated print run, plus some comp copies and overages.

 

I believe that the above analysis is likely sufficient for most books, but for books where the analysis would infer a minuscule print run, the analysis breaks down. The real issue is whether there's a minimum print run that Marvel imposes on any particular book, regardless of orders, and if so, what that print run might be.

 

Coming from a different background (corporate lawyer, responsible for printing the company's proxy statement and annual report), I can tell you that anticipated demand has some relationship to print run, but is not the only factor. Yes, I have to print at least what I need for orders (mailing out to shareholders), but then the economics of printing come into play. By far, the biggest cost is the setup cost of putting the print plates or getting the digital file ready for print. Basically, the incremental cost per unit is minimal, so I easily round to the nearest thousand or more. Then, after a year or two, I have to recycle all of the unused reports since the likelihood of anyone wanting one after a year drops dramatically.

 

My main point in all of this is that my experience leads me to believe that there is a minimum print run, probably one to two thousand. If orders are below that point, Marvel doesn't care or even think about it and just has the minimum print run done.

 

Then why are their so many extras?

[Prince Namor]

If they print to what they need.... why are their so many extras?

[Jaydogrules]

Could someone who objects to using the reported sales for an issue as a basis for the *estimate* of the print run of an incentive explain to me what a publisher has to gain by intentionally printing far more than they need, if they're only going to blow them out cheaply later on? What's to gain there? If there was a trail of evidence suggesting that the publisher was selling those variants at a markup later on, then there would be logic to the idea that the print run far exceeds the estimate based on sales, but it makes no sense for them to print far more if they don't need them and are going to sit on them (and pay Diamond to store them), only to let them go for pennies later.

 

Few things....

 

1. Who is saying they print "far more than they need"? That's the point: we don't know, but trying to estimate on an unrelated number is misleading at best.That's the reason why the numbers shouldn't be compared, above and beyond any other concerns.

 

For every X amount of copies of this regular book you order, you get/can purchase 1 copy of this incentive. That's the only concrete information we have about the incentive, and the publisher doesn't owe anybody anything beyond fulfilling those orders. That does not therefore mean that the two print runs are tied together by that distribution number. They're not. The publishers print what they want, and always have, for whatever reasons they have, whether it's precisely what they need down to the copy, or 10 times what they need to fulfill the incentive. We don't know.

 

Yes, the estimated sales of the regular version establishes an estimated BASELINE of possible incentive copies printed, true, but it's only a baseline. That is, "there were at least X copies printed." But the other side is open ended.

 

2. Who determines what Marvel "needs"? Doesn't Marvel determine what Marvel needs, for their own purposes?

 

3. Are you aware that Marvel warehoused around 3,000 Spiderman #1 Platinums for 15 years, until they were purchased by Todd McDevitt's New Dimension Comics around 2005? Why did Marvel print "far more than they needed", and then pay to store them for a decade and a half? Because they thought they needed them, and when they no longer thought that, they sold them.

 

And I guarantee you, McDevitt didn't pay anywhere near what they were worth on the market at the time.

 

4. Marvel prints millions of comic books every year. They aren't going to have much problem paying Diamond to store whatever amount they print above and beyond what they need.

 

5. It doesn't cost Marvel much more to print an extra X amount of copies than it does the regular book, since everything but the cover is the same. It costs Marvel about 50 cents a copy...and that's probably a high estimate for the big boys (vs. around $1.00/copy for 5-6k indy books.) So, if they are "blowing out" incentives for $1.25, $1.50, $2 each...they're not losing money. They're just selling books that they had about the same amount into as any other book, for about the same amount as they would get for any other book.

 

And you're right, they're not selling anything at a markup later on. Marvel doesn't care about that. They're not a back issue dealer. To Marvel and DC and others, however, these books are no different at all from every other book. It didn't cost them much more, if anything, to print them, it didn't cost them much more, if anything, to store them, and if they sell them for the same price they get for other books, they're not "selling them for pennies." You're thinking like a collector, or a dealer....not a publisher.

 

6. Nobody unintentionally prints much of anything.

 

No.

 

If anything, it is closer to a MAXIMUM CEILING of potential copies printed, since not every store will order enough quantities of a book to qualify for the incentive.

 

But in reality, once you factor back in printing overages for damages (placed at 10-15% tops by boardies knowledgeable of the printing industry) and courtesy copies, rounded up to the nearest case pack, it is VERY reasonable to use Comichron's N.A. distribution numbers to ESTIMATE a ratio variant's print run (which is all that I have seen anyone do on here, and they should be able to do so without being harassed, barked at or condescended to every single time).

 

-J.

 

Then why are their so many extras?

 

Because few things are an exact science and that's why they're called "estimates".

 

-J.

[revat]

I've tried to stay out of the "estimated print run" discussion, but I can't help myself any longer.

 

1. It seems to me that you're all trying to estimate a print run of a particular incentive variant based on the Diamond order numbers. Which then is bumped up to try to estimate worldwide orders.

 

2. Then, the order number is used to apply the stated incentive ratio to determine the estimated print run.

 

The problem is that you're using the wrong inputs.

 

The issue with #1 is that you're assuming that global orders is what Marvel cares about to determine the print run.

 

The issue with #2 is that you're assuming that Marvel only prints to the estimated print run, plus some comp copies and overages.

 

I believe that the above analysis is likely sufficient for most books, but for books where the analysis would infer a minuscule print run, the analysis breaks down. The real issue is whether there's a minimum print run that Marvel imposes on any particular book, regardless of orders, and if so, what that print run might be.

 

Coming from a different background (corporate lawyer, responsible for printing the company's proxy statement and annual report), I can tell you that anticipated demand has some relationship to print run, but is not the only factor. Yes, I have to print at least what I need for orders (mailing out to shareholders), but then the economics of printing come into play. By far, the biggest cost is the setup cost of putting the print plates or getting the digital file ready for print. Basically, the incremental cost per unit is minimal, so I easily round to the nearest thousand or more. Then, after a year or two, I have to recycle all of the unused reports since the likelihood of anyone wanting one after a year drops dramatically.

 

My main point in all of this is that my experience leads me to believe that there is a minimum print run, probably one to two thousand. If orders are below that point, Marvel doesn't care or even think about it and just has the minimum print run done.

 

Then why are their so many extras?

 

I don't think the theories are mutually exclusive. There are most likely minimum print runs for various thresholds that need to be met. For example, if you were printing, if the pre-order (4000) + reserves (400) was 4,400 it might cost the same to print 5,000, and the printer might even print an extra 200-300 just in case. Then if everything went smoothly, the 4,000 pre-orders turned into 5,300 actual comics, which is not insignificant at all in terms of the difference, but also quite a reasonable possibility. But what if it was a terrible print run and you only had 4,200 printed copies you could actually release? Or what if everything else was the same but you added 500 extra copies for promos and copies given to creators and staff?, how big would the swing be then? What if that extra 500 put you into the next threshold for printing? Need to print 5,125? Costs the same as 5,500. Plus more reserves.

 

Suddenly there's only 4,000 sold through diamond but you might get 5,700 total printed copies.

 

 

Nobody is saying it happens EVERY time. But we simply don't have enough info. Telling someone the print run is probably between 3,500 and 7,000 really doesn't have too much value to me, and probably is better left unsaid. Like saying Russ Westbrook scored between 5 and 50 points last night. Why even say it?

 

 

[Jaydogrules]

I've tried to stay out of the "estimated print run" discussion, but I can't help myself any longer.

 

1. It seems to me that you're all trying to estimate a print run of a particular incentive variant based on the Diamond order numbers. Which then is bumped up to try to estimate worldwide orders.

 

2. Then, the order number is used to apply the stated incentive ratio to determine the estimated print run.

 

The problem is that you're using the wrong inputs.

 

The issue with #1 is that you're assuming that global orders is what Marvel cares about to determine the print run.

 

The issue with #2 is that you're assuming that Marvel only prints to the estimated print run, plus some comp copies and overages.

 

I believe that the above analysis is likely sufficient for most books, but for books where the analysis would infer a minuscule print run, the analysis breaks down. The real issue is whether there's a minimum print run that Marvel imposes on any particular book, regardless of orders, and if so, what that print run might be.

 

Coming from a different background (corporate lawyer, responsible for printing the company's proxy statement and annual report), I can tell you that anticipated demand has some relationship to print run, but is not the only factor. Yes, I have to print at least what I need for orders (mailing out to shareholders), but then the economics of printing come into play. By far, the biggest cost is the setup cost of putting the print plates or getting the digital file ready for print. Basically, the incremental cost per unit is minimal, so I easily round to the nearest thousand or more. Then, after a year or two, I have to recycle all of the unused reports since the likelihood of anyone wanting one after a year drops dramatically.

 

My main point in all of this is that my experience leads me to believe that there is a minimum print run, probably one to two thousand. If orders are below that point, Marvel doesn't care or even think about it and just has the minimum print run done.

 

Then why are their so many extras?

 

I don't think the theories are mutually exclusive. There are most likely minimum print runs for various thresholds that need to be met. For example, if you were printing, if the pre-order (4000) + reserves (400) was 4,400 it might cost the same to print 5,000, and the printer might even print an extra 200-300 just in case. Then if everything went smoothly, the 4,000 pre-orders turned into 5,300 actual comics, which is not insignificant at all in terms of the difference, but also quite a reasonable possibility. But what if it was a terrible print run and you only had 4,200 printed copies you could actually release? Or what if everything else was the same but you added 500 extra copies for promos and copies given to creators and staff?, how big would the swing be then? What if that extra 500 put you into the next threshold for printing? Need to print 5,125? Costs the same as 5,500. Plus more reserves.

 

Suddenly there's only 4,000 sold through diamond but you might get 5,700 total printed copies.

 

 

Nobody is saying it happens EVERY time. But we simply don't have enough info. Telling someone the print run is probably between 3,500 and 7,000 really doesn't have too much value to me, and probably is better left unsaid. Like saying Russ Westbrook scored between 5 and 50 points last night. Why even say it?

 

 

Actually the expense of swapping cover plates during a print run is nominal. A publisher could literally print a one of one if they wanted without much or any added expense.

 

In fact, some have.

 

-J.

[Lazyboy]

Could someone who objects to using the reported sales for an issue as a basis for the *estimate* of the print run of an incentive explain to me what a publisher has to gain by intentionally printing far more than they need, if they're only going to blow them out cheaply later on? What's to gain there? If there was a trail of evidence suggesting that the publisher was selling those variants at a markup later on, then there would be logic to the idea that the print run far exceeds the estimate based on sales, but it makes no sense for them to print far more if they don't need them and are going to sit on them (and pay Diamond to store them), only to let them go for pennies later.

 

 

Few things....

 

1. Who is saying they print "far more than they need"? That's the point: we don't know, but trying to estimate on an unrelated number is misleading at best. That's the reason why the numbers shouldn't be compared, above and beyond any other concerns.

 

For every X amount of copies of this regular book you order, you get/can purchase 1 copy of this incentive. That's the only concrete information we have about the incentive, and the publisher doesn't owe anybody anything beyond fulfilling those orders. That does not therefore mean that the two print runs are tied together by that distribution number. They're not. The publishers print what they want, and always have, for whatever reasons they have, whether it's precisely what they need down to the copy, or 10 times what they need to fulfill the incentive. We don't know.

 

Yes, the estimated sales of the regular version establishes an estimated BASELINE of possible incentive copies printed, true, but it's only a baseline. That is, "there were at least X copies printed." But the other side is open ended.

 

2. Who determines what Marvel "needs"? Doesn't Marvel determine what Marvel needs, for their own purposes?

 

3. Are you aware that Marvel warehoused around 3,000 Spiderman #1 Platinums for 15 years, until they were purchased by Todd McDevitt's New Dimension Comics around 2005? Why did Marvel print "far more than they needed", and then pay to store them for a decade and a half? Because they thought they needed them, and when they no longer thought that, they sold them.

 

And I guarantee you, McDevitt didn't pay anywhere near what they were worth on the market at the time.

 

4. Marvel prints millions of comic books every year. They aren't going to have much problem paying Diamond to store whatever amount they print above and beyond what they need.

 

5. It doesn't cost Marvel much more to print an extra X amount of copies than it does the regular book, since everything but the cover is the same. It costs Marvel about 50 cents a copy...and that's probably a high estimate for the big boys (vs. around $1.00/copy for 5-6k indy books.) So, if they are "blowing out" incentives for $1.25, $1.50, $2 each...they're not losing money. They're just selling books that they had about the same amount into as any other book, for about the same amount as they would get for any other book.

 

And you're right, they're not selling anything at a markup later on. Marvel doesn't care about that. They're not a back issue dealer. To Marvel and DC and others, however, these books are no different at all from every other book. It didn't cost them much more, if anything, to print them, it didn't cost them much more, if anything, to store them, and if they sell them for the same price they get for other books, they're not "selling them for pennies." You're thinking like a collector, or a dealer....not a publisher.

 

6. Nobody unintentionally prints much of anything.

 

Here's the things we know about what goes into the print run of an incentive variant:

 

1. Distribution ratio.

2. Diamond Sales numbers for the regular issue.

 

Here's a list of things we DON'T know that go into the print number of an incentive variant.

 

1. How many international issues were ordered.

2. How many orders qualified for how many variants.

3. How many of the qualified orders actually bought the incentive variants.

4. How many reserves are ordered by Diamond (and internationally).

5. What is the rounding to the nearest full case or palette (or other unit) in terms of ordering by Diamond

6. If there are any additional discounts or thresholds to be met either for ordering in general or for this specific issue (if Marvel or DC wants to push it harder). E.G. We're at 900 issues ordered so far, but at 1000 we get a discount or if we order five sets of 1000 comics each they'll toss in an extra 100 each, etc. And what if these specials are just for this month, or this season, like a Christmas bonus or Stan Lee's birthday or whatever, or in promo of a movie.

7. #6 is just Diamond telling Marvel how much they want, what about similar things for international dealers.

8. #6 and #7 are just about how much the distributors are ordering from Marvel. Similar specials, reserves, making full unit orders, freebies, etc. can happen when Marvel orders from the printer, and that doesn't even account for:

9. Marvel ordering more on top of what distributors ordered for:

a. Extras for artists, creators, staff (don't underestimate this, this can get into the hundreds pretty easily)

b. Special promotions - give out an extra freebie to stores, advertising

c. Special events - company picnics, board meetings, charity, etc.

d. Extra anticipated re-orders due to expected high sales or popularity, or an estimated low quality of print run (but what if the print run turned out ok?)

e. Any other reason they want. E.G. The printers gave us a deal, so we just ordered 1,000 of everything that month that was 1:50 or higher.

10. The printer themselves prints extra reserves based on the Marvel orders, most likely a percentage of total orders. If you had a situation wear the print run turned out exceptionally well, but EVERYONE ordered reserves along the way AND the printer printed EXTRA reserves, that's could already easily be 30-60% higher than the original number ordered by LCS's.

 

Any one of these things may not seem like very much individually as factors, but on a variant where someone THINKS there's between 400-600 or even 1000-2000 out there, when the number printed could quite reasonably possibly be 500-1000+ more than you originally thought, the difference could be huge. And even before considering all these reasonable special factors, we DON'T know numbers about how many were ordered on a 'normal' month. And we don't know how often even those 'normal' months occur, whether 2/3 months are normal, or half, or a third of months.

 

 

Try this one. On Feb 24, 2008 the Lakers beat the Sonics in Seattle. The Sonics scored 91 points. How many free throws did Kobe take? With that info, how valid is your guess. Yes, you could be right. But...you couldn't know unless you looked it up, or even guess in good faith, unless you wanted to say something useless like between 4 and 30 free throws.

 

With just the date, the opponent, the winner, and the opponents score total, how close would you get if on guessing Kobe's free throw attempts for the next ten games (without ANY additional info)? Note that this is still way easier to guess than variant print run

 

This is what I like to see!

 

This is very eloquently said and states common sense in systematic and step by step way that even a insufficiently_thoughtful_person should be able to get it.

 

 

Uh, not really.

 

There are at least a dozen more assumptions being made in that convoluted analysis than there are when someone simply estimates based on Comichron's distribution reports (which is also, incidentally, the closest thing to concrete, industry accepted information that we actually have).

 

-J.

 

But strangely, Comichron doesn't have any estimates for variant distribution. Why do you think that is? Does JJM just hate variants?

[Lazyboy]

The international market is narrow and an entirely different market and should not even be discussed in the context of estimating a ratio variant's print run, since they are not even the same books in many instances.

 

-J.

 

We're talking about books published by the American companies and distributed outside of N.A., not stuff licensed to a foreign publisher.

[Lazyboy]

The variants we get are distributed through Diamond N.A. and there is nothing that I have ever seen that even suggests that they are offered overseas.

 

Again, what I see are foreign reprints that use many of the variant covers but with different interiors, or covers that are unique to the overseas market that we don't get here.

 

It is a different market and should not be a part of the conversation.

 

-J.

 

 

A new low! Maybe i shouldn't be so shocked, but

[HighRadArt]

The variants we get are distributed through Diamond N.A. and there is nothing that I have ever seen that even suggests that they are offered overseas.

 

Again, what I see are foreign reprints that use many of the variant covers but with different interiors, or covers that are unique to the overseas market that we don't get here.

 

It is a different market and should not be a part of the conversation.

 

-J.

 

 

A new low! Maybe i shouldn't be so shocked, but

 

Where?

[Lazyboy]

The variants we get are distributed through Diamond N.A. and there is nothing that I have ever seen that even suggests that they are offered overseas.

 

Again, what I see are foreign reprints that use many of the variant covers but with different interiors, or covers that are unique to the overseas market that we don't get here.

 

It is a different market and should not be a part of the conversation.

 

-J.

 

 

A new low! Maybe i shouldn't be so shocked, but

 

Where?

 

Better?

 

Every time I think Jaydog has posted the stupidest thing ever, he proves me wrong.

[Jaydogrules]

The variants we get are distributed through Diamond N.A. and there is nothing that I have ever seen that even suggests that they are offered overseas.

 

Again, what I see are foreign reprints that use many of the variant covers but with different interiors, or covers that are unique to the overseas market that we don't get here.

 

It is a different market and should not be a part of the conversation.

 

-J.

 

 

A new low! Maybe i shouldn't be so shocked, but

 

Where?

 

Better?

 

Every time I think Jaydog has posted the stupidest thing ever, he proves me wrong.

 

And yet you have neither stated not shown anything that demonstrates that anything I have said is incorrect.

 

Good ole "Lazyboy" troll posting ID.

 

-J.

[RockMyAmadeus]

I've tried to stay out of the "estimated print run" discussion, but I can't help myself any longer.

 

1. It seems to me that you're all trying to estimate a print run of a particular incentive variant based on the Diamond order numbers. Which then is bumped up to try to estimate worldwide orders.

 

2. Then, the order number is used to apply the stated incentive ratio to determine the estimated print run.

 

The problem is that you're using the wrong inputs.

 

The issue with #1 is that you're assuming that global orders is what Marvel cares about to determine the print run.

 

The issue with #2 is that you're assuming that Marvel only prints to the estimated print run, plus some comp copies and overages.

 

I believe that the above analysis is likely sufficient for most books, but for books where the analysis would infer a minuscule print run, the analysis breaks down. The real issue is whether there's a minimum print run that Marvel imposes on any particular book, regardless of orders, and if so, what that print run might be.

 

Coming from a different background (corporate lawyer, responsible for printing the company's proxy statement and annual report), I can tell you that anticipated demand has some relationship to print run, but is not the only factor. Yes, I have to print at least what I need for orders (mailing out to shareholders), but then the economics of printing come into play. By far, the biggest cost is the setup cost of putting the print plates or getting the digital file ready for print. Basically, the incremental cost per unit is minimal, so I easily round to the nearest thousand or more. Then, after a year or two, I have to recycle all of the unused reports since the likelihood of anyone wanting one after a year drops dramatically.

 

My main point in all of this is that my experience leads me to believe that there is a minimum print run, probably one to two thousand. If orders are below that point, Marvel doesn't care or even think about it and just has the minimum print run done.

 

Then why are their so many extras?

 

I don't think the theories are mutually exclusive. There are most likely minimum print runs for various thresholds that need to be met. For example, if you were printing, if the pre-order (4000) + reserves (400) was 4,400 it might cost the same to print 5,000, and the printer might even print an extra 200-300 just in case. Then if everything went smoothly, the 4,000 pre-orders turned into 5,300 actual comics, which is not insignificant at all in terms of the difference, but also quite a reasonable possibility. But what if it was a terrible print run and you only had 4,200 printed copies you could actually release? Or what if everything else was the same but you added 500 extra copies for promos and copies given to creators and staff?, how big would the swing be then? What if that extra 500 put you into the next threshold for printing? Need to print 5,125? Costs the same as 5,500. Plus more reserves.

 

Suddenly there's only 4,000 sold through diamond but you might get 5,700 total printed copies.

 

 

Nobody is saying it happens EVERY time. But we simply don't have enough info. Telling someone the print run is probably between 3,500 and 7,000 really doesn't have too much value to me, and probably is better left unsaid. Like saying Russ Westbrook scored between 5 and 50 points last night. Why even say it?

 

 

 

That's pretty much the conclusion everyone should be coming to.

 

"I'm just estimating. Stop trying to tell me I can't estimate."

 

For estimations to be of any value, however, they have to be realistic,. based on known factors, involving known quantities, with known outcomes.

 

The great problem of using the distribution ratios and estimated North American reported sales is that it sounds reasonable. It goes like this: "Hey, they printed (erroneous assumption) 53,267 copies of Comic X #27, and there was a 1:100 variant, so that must mean (erroneous comparison) that there were only 533 copies of the incentive printed, plus overage, plus case allotments, minus orders that didn't qualify (erroneous conclusion.)"

 

The only thing that 1:X number means for certain is that it tells a retailer how many copies of the incentive they may purchase/receive if they order X copies of the regular version. That's it.

 

Everything beyond that is unjustified speculation.

 

It doesn't tell us how many of the incentives were printed, it doesn't tell us how many of the regular copies were printed, and it doesn't even tell us how many were actually distributed! It only tells us how many copies of the incentive a retailer can purchase/receive if they purchase X copies of the regular book. That's it. And it doesn't pretend to be anything other than that. The publisher owes nothing to anyone except to fulfill orders that qualify. Whatever else they do is kept secret.

 

 

[Bird]

Could someone who objects to using the reported sales for an issue as a basis for the *estimate* of the print run of an incentive explain to me what a publisher has to gain by intentionally printing far more than they need, if they're only going to blow them out cheaply later on?

 

My problem is with boardies trying to act as if they know what publishers NEED and immediately equating it with FOC. As we have seen FOC really only represents some of the pie (I myself like how re-orders are ignored, but that is a small nit to pick). As a fan/spec n00b I wonder how digital tech has changed the game from the days when changing the plates influenced things, but I digress.

 

What publishers need and how that need is ultimately represented by a "true" print run (and chasing that elusive number makes you more hapless than Ahab) is a shifting formula that changes for every issue of every title. We know so little and have no idea what we do not know.

 

Arguing about the degree of unknown or how some element effects the print run helps little as well. (Or, in the immortal words of Bill Parcells "in some contingency event, all of which are hypothetical".)

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

RMA... There is No actual number that we can know !!!! AGREE

 

But we can use whatever we have to try to arrive at a guess right? it hurts no one ! As long as its not stated as a fact ! I stick to my guns that the JIM 633 most likely is not over 1000 and probably 2-3 cases. 450/675 very logical given the known factors...

 

why would they ever print double or triple what is needed, just to liquidate.

 

We know that at the most the UK is 15 percent of the total distribution numbers? on the high side. we know that just because 30,000/35,000 books where printed that only a percentage was FO cutoff with 50 or more. LOGIC

 

Did you know U.S. Marvel comics are also distributed to more than the UK overseas. I traveled Europe last year and just about every shop I visited had new Marvel comics. The exact same ones we have in the U.S. In English. I saw this in France, Belgium, Germany, etc.

 

It would be interesting to know how much those sales account for. I can see another 15% or more easily just from the other countries.

 

Aside from a few other European countries like Sweden, Netherlands, Switzerland, etc there's also...

 

Australia, new Zealand, INDIA, Philippines, Singapore, and probably some others.

 

Do these constitute HUGE #'s? Maybe, maybe not, but in aggregate it MIGHT in some cases represent another bump in variant print run, which may not insignificant, and may or may not be consistent (some variants might not even be offered internationally for whatever reason, or at different incentive levels).

 

The point is not that any single factor causes sooooo much uncertainty, although in some cases it might, but the point is that there's sooooo MANY factors that going into deciding print run (of any comic, including variants), with 99% of them being unknown to the public for any given issue, that essentially you're just closing your eyes and throwing darts at a moving board and then making a guess at what you hit.

 

 

I don't know if this is still true, but a number of books are distributed to US military books. I don't know how those are accounted, but it would be interesting to find out. I'm fairly certain those books aren't included in the estimate of copies sold in North American through the Direct market.

 

[Jaydogrules]

Could someone who objects to using the reported sales for an issue as a basis for the *estimate* of the print run of an incentive explain to me what a publisher has to gain by intentionally printing far more than they need, if they're only going to blow them out cheaply later on?

 

My problem is with boardies trying to act as if they know what publishers NEED and immediately equating it with FOC. As we have seen FOC really only represents some of the pie (I myself like how re-orders are ignored, but that is a small nit to pick). As a fan/spec n00b I wonder how digital tech has changed the game from the days when changing the plates influenced things, but I digress.

 

What publishers need and how that need is ultimately represented by a "true" print run (and chasing that elusive number makes you more hapless than Ahab) is a shifting formula that changes for every issue of every title. We know so little and have no idea what we do not know.

 

Arguing about the degree of unknown or how some element effects the print run helps little as well. (Or, in the immortal words of Bill Parcells "in some contingency event, all of which are hypothetical".)

 

 

All very good points.

 

However knowledgeable boardies have come on (on multiple occasions) and confirmed that the FOC numbers (as reported by Comichron) are not wildly different than what is ultimately printed. The FOC is there for a reason- and that reason (obviously) is to give publishers a very good idea of how many copies they need to order up from the printers.

 

This really is just common sense, and I don't believe anyone has given a very good reason why using Comichron numbers as a baseline estimate is not, at the very least , a valid starting point.

 

And then if anyone has any additional information to share about a particular book that might be helpful in modifying the equation, all the better.

 

-J.

[HighRadArt]

Could someone who objects to using the reported sales for an issue as a basis for the *estimate* of the print run of an incentive explain to me what a publisher has to gain by intentionally printing far more than they need, if they're only going to blow them out cheaply later on?

 

My problem is with boardies trying to act as if they know what publishers NEED and immediately equating it with FOC. As we have seen FOC really only represents some of the pie (I myself like how re-orders are ignored, but that is a small nit to pick). As a fan/spec n00b I wonder how digital tech has changed the game from the days when changing the plates influenced things, but I digress.

 

What publishers need and how that need is ultimately represented by a "true" print run (and chasing that elusive number makes you more hapless than Ahab) is a shifting formula that changes for every issue of every title. We know so little and have no idea what we do not know.

 

Arguing about the degree of unknown or how some element effects the print run helps little as well. (Or, in the immortal words of Bill Parcells "in some contingency event, all of which are hypothetical".)

 

 

All very good points.

 

However knowledgeable boardies have come on (on multiple occasions) and confirmed that the FOC numbers (as reported by Comichron) are not wildly different than what is ultimately printed. The FOC is there for a reason- and that reason (obviously) is to give publishers a very good idea of how many copies they need to order up from the printers.

 

This really is just common sense, and I don't believe anyone has given a very good reason why using Comichron numbers as a baseline estimate is not, at the very least , a valid starting point.

 

And then if anyone has any additional information to share about a particular book that might be helpful in modifying the equation, all the better.

 

-J.

 

Really? We must not be reading the same last ten or twenty pages because it seems like there's been a lot of additional information.

[darkstar]

 

The variants we get are distributed through Diamond N.A. and there is nothing that I have ever seen that even suggests that they are offered overseas.

 

Again, what I see are foreign reprints that use many of the variant covers but with different interiors, or covers that are unique to the overseas market that we don't get here.

 

It is a different market and should not be a part of the conversation.

 

-J.

 

"Nothing that I have ever seen that even suggests they are offered overseas."

 

Except that time board user Ultramanking posted incentive variants for International Iron Man 1 in the Dell'otto thread that he purchased in Hong Kong. On the same day the book released here in the US. With no differences between the copies purchased there and the ones purchased in the US, save for the polybag.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[krighton]

You people do realize theres nothing you can ever say that will change the other persons opinion on the given subject

[Holden Caulfield]

You people do realize theres nothing you can ever say that will change the other persons opinion on the given subject

 

I think they just like seeing their opinions in/on "Print."

Edited May 25, 2016 by Holden Caulfield

[RockMyAmadeus]

This really is just common sense, and I don't believe anyone has given a very good reason why using Comichron numbers as a baseline estimate is not, at the very least , a valid starting point.

 

 

Because "1:X" only determines how the book can be obtained by a retailer...not how many are printed. And if that ratio only has to do with the ability of a retailer to obtain a copy, you cannot extrapolate "1:X" to have any relationship with the Comichron numbers.

 

They have no relationship to each other.

 

If Comic Book X #27 has Comichron numbers of 53,267, and it has a 1:100 variant offered with it, that number: "1:100"...only describes how many copies of the regular book a retailer must order to purchase/obtain the incentive.

 

It doesn't have anything to do with the print run of the incentive, and since it doesn't, the Comichron numbers for the regular have no relationship to that print run, either.

 

That's not only a very good reason, it's the only reason there is.

 

You might as well be using the Comichron numbers for X-Men #872 to determine the incentive print run for Black Panther #536. That's as much of a relationship as those two numbers have to each other.