Moderns that are heating up on ebay! 71 71

[zupaphly]

Yep... still arguing I see...

[RockMyAmadeus]

Bleeding cools site trips my virus protection . No one but diamond knows the final order cutoff numbers on incentive variants. but if you use the retail delivery numbers as a clue as well as damage and know the case pack number you can make a pretty good assumption...in this case even if 300 groups of fifty where ordered min would be a overprint of 150 books... you have a lot to take into account but if you put reasonable logic into the formula with the clues you can come close ... The case pack is a pretty solid X in the formula.

 

 

So, you're saying that the Miracleman incentive sale did NOT take place? Just looking to get a concrete answer either way.

 

As far as the "case pack" theory, you're not seeing the forest for the trees. You're starting with a faulty platform....that is, that incentive print runs are tied to regular print runs....and then coming to the "case pack" conclusion.

 

That really isn't the issue, whether or not Marvel prints "to the case" or not. If you start with a shaky foundation, everything built on that foundation will be even shakier, if not irredeemably flawed from the outset.

 

You start with a bad assumption: that you can use the "retailer delivery numbers" to "estimate" the incentive print runs. Everything after that is, necessarily, erroneous.

 

 

[divad]

Why should he when it's easier to simply declare someone "wrong" whilst simultaneously mistaking (and representing) his own (uninformed) opinions as "facts"?

 

-J.

 

whilst?

[RockMyAmadeus]

Yep... still arguing I see...

 

 

Oh yeah...where?

 

[paul747]

RMA... There is No actual number that we can know !!!! AGREE

 

But we can use whatever we have to try to arrive at a guess right? it hurts no one ! As long as its not stated as a fact ! I stick to my guns that the JIM 633 most likely is not over 1000 and probably 2-3 cases. 450/675 very logical given the known factors...

 

why would they ever print double or triple what is needed, just to liquidate.

 

We know that at the most the UK is 15 percent of the total distribution numbers? on the high side. we know that just because 30,000/35,000 books where printed that only a percentage was FO cutoff with 50 or more. LOGIC

Edited May 25, 2016 by paul747

[RockMyAmadeus]

Jays number on the variant is probaly real close. 2 cases of 200... It is a logical guess. And there was probably hundred plus that where still sitting at diamond. It could still be a small print.

 

The retail program is not a fraud but as stated they order to the closest case pack.

 

Some of you guys are crazy !! 450/675 is a good guess... key word used above is GUESS ! its not a stretch ! And chuck can I ask what kind of relationship you have with your diamond rep? its a fact they will not give you the exact print run but they will tell you in detail how things work. In my 14 years of dealing with them I have gotten some very valuable information from people that have advanced to higher positions in that company ! I believe it to be reliable... Larry has some communication issues but most of what he says about diamond is spot on.

 

To say that the retail program is a fraud is crazy.... the variants print runs are in case packs and estimated... when the incentive numbers come in lower than estimations there are surplus. The surplus then is usually liquidated in one form or another to at least cover some costs.

 

I bet some of the variant ordering is done with common sense and common sense on the book in question including the London boys would be 450/675 and because of the low print numbers that would explain the surplus.

 

JOURNEY INTO MYSTERY #633 VENOM VAR

MARVEL COMICS

(W) Kieron Gillen (A) Richard Elson (CA) TBD

THE SON OF SATAN GUEST-STARS!

 

Case Pack

225

 

estimated North America run 23,869

 

lets guess 10,000 everywhere else GUESS... 34,000 printed.. 150-160 cases... including damage or overrun. that would be 680 1:50 books... so to cover that number if every retailer ordered 50 copies they would need 4 cases... that's 1000 books. so depending on rest of the world print numbers and retailers order I dont think its anywhere near 1000...

 

 

Where is the print run info for overseas? that's a key number that would tighten up this argument... its been said over and over there are no hard numbers but there is common sense and information on how certain company's operate...

 

 

The ratios are distribution numbers...that is, how the books are distributed to retailers...not print numbers.

 

As said before, Comichron only records sales to North American shops via Diamond. Therefore, those numbers are not the print run of the books.

 

The distribution ratios are not tied to the print runs of the incentives, and never have been. Therefore, every attempt to tie those numbers together is in error from the start.

 

Indeed, there is common sense....but it's not common sense to make assumptions based on incomplete information, is it?

Hey RMA those numbers are used to create the print runs... then there is a certain damage or overprint percentage... the numbers most certainly are tied together please show me any info that SAYS DIFFERENT???

 

 

 

 

Yes:

 

http://www.bleedingcool.com/2015/05/15/marvel-liquidates-miracleman-1-10-in-all-its-variants/

 

That says different, as do other sales over the years like it, as well as the publishers' use of variants in various, non-incentive manners. It demonstrates, beyond any doubt, that Marvel prints a non-negligible amount more than what is needed to fulfill the retailer incentive program.

 

But, regardless, in any scholarly debate, the onus isn't upon the one challenging the claim to DISprove the claim....but upon the claimant to prove it, when challenged.

 

So....if print run information is kept secret by Marvel, DC, and others...how do you demonstrate that the incentive print runs are tied to the sales in North America of Direct market copies?

bleeding cool ! thats your proof

I am saying they print more !

 

 

So, you don't think that Marvel sold off all of its Miracleman incentive variants after their initial distribution? Are you disputing that that happened? You're saying that sale did NOT take place, correct...?

I bought variants in tons of these sales ! of course i believe it ! I know incentive variants are always printed in qtys more than they estimate the need at.

 

 

So if you believe it, why did you post " bleeding cool ! thats (sic) your proof ", and how was that relevant to my point?

 

[paul747]

Because marvel selling of incentive surplus is part of my point. are you reading or just disagreeing on the blind?

 

MIN---225

 

MAX--1000

 

Thats not shaky or far off i bet ! Unless this book was in a store deal or con promotion this is not a horrible guess.

Edited May 25, 2016 by paul747

[jsilverjanet]

I think both of you are saying the same thing except one of you thinks the number is a complete unknown vs the other says it can be estimated

[RockMyAmadeus]

RMA... There is No actual number that we can know !!!! AGREE

 

But we can use whatever we have to try to arrive at a guess right?

 

 

No. Guesses which aren't educated have no value, especially guesses that are presented as "educated."

 

 

it hurts no one !

 

 

Of course it does. It hurts the people who are fooled into thinking that such and such a variant is "worth the price" because only "X amount were printed."

 

 

As long as its not stated as a fact ! I stick to my guns that the JIM 633 most likely is not over 1000 and probably 2-3 cases. 450/675 very logical given the known factors...

 

why would they ever print double or triple what is needed, just to liquidate.

 

 

Good question, and there are a number of reasonable answers. Only the publishers know for sure.

 

 

We know that at the most the UK is 15 percent of the total distribution numbers? on the high side. we know that just because 40,000 books where printed that only a percentage was FO cutoff with 50 or more. LOGIC

 

 

The "total distribution" numbers don't have anything to do with the print runs of the incentive variants. That number, for the intent of discovering the print run of the incentive variant attached to that issue, is useless.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

Because marvel selling of incentive surplus is part of my point. are you reading or just disagreeing on the blind?

 

 

Paul...if you're going to be dismissive, I'm going to bow out of discussing this with you.

 

Let's say I'm stupid, explain it to me as if I don't know anything: How is "Marvel selling of (sic) incentive surplus" part of your point?

 

 

 

[paul747]

I think both of you are saying the same thing except one of you thinks the number is a complete unknown vs the other says it can be estimated

+1 I quit , he is a better writer and the spoiler tags are killing me ! Edited May 25, 2016 by paul747

[paul747]

Because marvel selling of incentive surplus is part of my point. are you reading or just disagreeing on the blind?

 

 

Paul...if you're going to be dismissive, I'm going to bow out of discussing this with you.

 

Let's say I'm stupid, explain it to me as if I don't know anything: How is "Marvel selling of (sic) incentive surplus" part of your point?

 

 

I dont think your stupid and i am not trying to dismiss you !

 

Because by ordering the nearest case pack over the needed amount there probably is always a surplus on the variants... We have seen the sales and the store surplus deals. if marvel needed 400 copies for the diamond final order cutoff they would most likely order 3 cases.. 675 copies.. I have definitely been told things like this. This would leave a surplus of 275 copies if no other copies where needed for damage or whatever.

Edited May 25, 2016 by paul747

[RockMyAmadeus]

I think both of you are saying the same thing except one of you thinks the number is a complete unknown vs the other says it can be estimated

 

 

Those are opposing points, not the same thing. The reason it can't be estimated is because it's a complete unknown. And it literally is a complete unknown. Trying to estimate as Paul (and others) is doing is the problem.

 

[paul747]

I think both of you are saying the same thing except one of you thinks the number is a complete unknown vs the other says it can be estimated

 

 

Those are opposing points, not the same thing. The reason it can't be estimated is because it's a complete unknown. And it literally is a complete unknown. Trying to estimate as Paul (and others) is doing is the problem.

IT IS NOT A COMPLETE UNKNOWN !!!! really ? The clues are there to say it is a complete unknown is very unfair. comic chron is a great clue to start... Talking to diamond about there systems is a huge clue and help. Not only is it possible to estimate , it is possible to be within 10 percent ! before 2003.. what you are saying is absolutely true before diamond became the king ! Edited May 25, 2016 by paul747

[LarrysComics]

Because marvel selling of incentive surplus is part of my point. are you reading or just disagreeing on the blind?

 

 

Paul...if you're going to be dismissive, I'm going to bow out of discussing this with you.

 

Let's say I'm stupid, explain it to me as if I don't know anything: How is "Marvel selling of (sic) incentive surplus" part of your point?

 

 

I dont think your stupid and i am not trying to dismiss you !

 

Because by ordering the nearest case pack over the needed amount there probably is always a surplus on the variants... We have seen the sales and the store surplus deals. if marvel needed 400 copies for the diamond final order cutoff they would most likely order 3 cases.. 675 copies.. I have definitely been told things like this. This would leave a surplus of 275 copies if no other copies where needed for damage or whatever.

 

I've been told similar.

By sources at the publishing level & distribution level.

 

But it falls under the CGC board logic category:

Generic "I know things about stuff" boast.

 

I've made obnoxious purchases on rare variants.

As have many retailers here.

 

 

 

 

[paul747]

Because marvel selling of incentive surplus is part of my point. are you reading or just disagreeing on the blind?

 

 

Paul...if you're going to be dismissive, I'm going to bow out of discussing this with you.

 

Let's say I'm stupid, explain it to me as if I don't know anything: How is "Marvel selling of (sic) incentive surplus" part of your point?

 

 

I dont think your stupid and i am not trying to dismiss you !

 

Because by ordering the nearest case pack over the needed amount there probably is always a surplus on the variants... We have seen the sales and the store surplus deals. if marvel needed 400 copies for the diamond final order cutoff they would most likely order 3 cases.. 675 copies.. I have definitely been told things like this. This would leave a surplus of 275 copies if no other copies where needed for damage or whatever.

 

I've been told similar.

By sources at the publishing level & distribution level.

 

But it falls under the CGC board logic category:

Generic "I know things about stuff" boast.

 

I've made obnoxious purchases on rare variants.

As have many retailers here.

 

 

 

+10000000 thanks LARRY ! you do know !

[RockMyAmadeus]

Because marvel selling of incentive surplus is part of my point. are you reading or just disagreeing on the blind?

 

 

Paul...if you're going to be dismissive, I'm going to bow out of discussing this with you.

 

Let's say I'm stupid, explain it to me as if I don't know anything: How is "Marvel selling of (sic) incentive surplus" part of your point?

 

 

I dont think your stupid and i am not trying to dismiss you !

 

Because by ordering the nearest case pack over the needed amount there probably is always a surplus on the variants... We have seen the sales and the store surplus deals. if marvel needed 400 copies for the diamond final order cutoff they would most likely order 3 cases.. 675 copies.. I have definitely been told things like this. This would leave a surplus of 275 copies if no other copies where needed for damage or whatever.

 

 

No one is (really) disputing that Marvel "prints to the case" (even though Marvel hasn't confirmed this, it's a reasonable assumption to make.)

 

That's not the issue.

 

The issue is that neither you, I, nor anyone else who is not the printer and not the publisher has any idea how many they print, and why.

 

And in your example, what happened to the 450? If they only needed 400, why wouldn't they only print 450, instead of 675?

 

And....the Diamond sales have been farrrr in excess of simple "overages."

 

For example....I own roughly 50 copies of New Avengers #4, the 1:...I want to say 17? variant, one of the earliest of the incentive variants. These came from Wizard, when they sold all their stock in 2007. And Wizard sold several hundred of these copies. How did they get them? And how does that account for the "case theory"? After all, it was an incentive variant....right? So, logically, they would only print what was necessary to fulfill orders, "plus a little more" to cover everything.

 

So how did Wizard end up with hundreds of these books...? The certainly didn't order thousands of copies of the regular books to qualify for these incentives.

 

Same with House of M #1 (the Quesada Scarlet Witch cover), and other incentive variants of the time period. How did Wizard end up with so many, if Marvel only printed roughly to order?

 

[Jimmy Linguini]

Hey guys...its been noted earlier Henchgirl has been picking up speed recently either print run or the TV whispers.

 

Just wanted to see whether anyone knew for sure what issue would be recognised as a true 1st as there seems to be three.

 

Henchgirl 1 http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Henchgirl-1-First-Published-By-Kristen-Gudsnuk-First-Appearance-/152102083996?hash=item2369fd9d9c:g:SrkAAOSwDV1XRHDQ

 

Henchgirl 1 Scout Copy 2500 ish copies

 

Henchgirl 1 Ashcan Edition

 

There are two versions of that. one only has a few copies - one has considerably more.

[RockMyAmadeus]

Because marvel selling of incentive surplus is part of my point. are you reading or just disagreeing on the blind?

 

 

Paul...if you're going to be dismissive, I'm going to bow out of discussing this with you.

 

Let's say I'm stupid, explain it to me as if I don't know anything: How is "Marvel selling of (sic) incentive surplus" part of your point?

 

 

I dont think your stupid and i am not trying to dismiss you !

 

Because by ordering the nearest case pack over the needed amount there probably is always a surplus on the variants... We have seen the sales and the store surplus deals. if marvel needed 400 copies for the diamond final order cutoff they would most likely order 3 cases.. 675 copies.. I have definitely been told things like this. This would leave a surplus of 275 copies if no other copies where needed for damage or whatever.

 

I've been told similar.

By sources at the publishing level & distribution level.

 

But it falls under the CGC board logic category:

Generic "I know things about stuff" boast.

 

I've made obnoxious purchases on rare variants.

As have many retailers here.

 

 

 

+10000000 thanks LARRY ! you do know !

 

 

Larry's disputing your point.

 

"I've made obnoxious purchases on rare variants."

 

I'm assuming he means "more than just enough to account for simple overages."

 

 

 

 

[revat]

Because marvel selling of incentive surplus is part of my point. are you reading or just disagreeing on the blind?

 

 

Paul...if you're going to be dismissive, I'm going to bow out of discussing this with you.

 

Let's say I'm stupid, explain it to me as if I don't know anything: How is "Marvel selling of (sic) incentive surplus" part of your point?

 

 

I dont think your stupid and i am not trying to dismiss you !

 

Because by ordering the nearest case pack over the needed amount there probably is always a surplus on the variants... We have seen the sales and the store surplus deals. if marvel needed 400 copies for the diamond final order cutoff they would most likely order 3 cases.. 675 copies.. I have definitely been told things like this. This would leave a surplus of 275 copies if no other copies where needed for damage or whatever.

 

I've been told similar.

By sources at the publishing level & distribution level.

 

But it falls under the CGC board logic category:

Generic "I know things about stuff" boast.ed

 

I've made obnoxious purchases on rare variants.

As have many retailers here.

 

 

 

+10000000 thanks LARRY ! you do know !

 

I'm not sure anyone is saying this stuff isn't true. They print extras and the nearest case or other unit and also have some percentage of reserves. But clearly at least SOMETIMES marvel orders based on MORE than what was originally ordered by the distributor, and sometimes in significant amounts, for various reasons, and it seems to happen enough not to be a statistical anamoly. How often and how significant? Nobody outside will know. So to estimate any specific number on a specific issue or variant without other inside info....