East of West 1 1

[jjoseph7772]

cbt should make his own blog. Id read it

sometimes he talks and i cant understand everything he is saying but i still agree Yeahm i drunk again so what motherspooners, kiss my spoon

[Hulk44]

I don't disagree with anything you said, CBT, but I think what killed NWM was the multiple, competing 'rare' variants.

 

For a book to reach Saga RRP levels, I think it needs to be the exclusive 'big book' for that particular title/issue. You can have a few Ghost, Phantom, 1:5, whatever type variants, but there can only be one chase book that people will pay big bucks for over a sustained period of time.

 

Obviously NWM Thought Bubble has survived somewhat, but even it has been pulled down by the massive oversaturation that occurred when everyone dumped the CBLDF and ComicsPro variants. Collectors with serious money to spend want 'the best of the best' and when that's not a clear target, they tend to look elsewhere or settle for the regular #1.

 

Basically, this is my way of saying that the East of West RRP should have an advantage over the NWM 'rarities' involvolved in variant clusterF. Unless of course the CBLDF and ComicsPro versions are coming next month

 

 

Very well stated.....

[krighton]

he should call his blog The Daily Bubble

[awakeintheashes]

he should call his blog The Daily Bubble

 

HBD

[krighton]

Tnx

[aaronc]

cheers

 

I agree, I also don't think EoW will crash as hard when it dips. I guess my fear beyond the "multiple" top tier variants, is the velocity of price appreciation. We already have a situation in EoW where far too many people have multiple copies, and not nearly enough people have one copy. It's the one copy buyers that support a book and build it up and produce stability.

 

NWM got a lot more readers because of speculation that caught a spark. Once it was in the focal point of speculation, those variants came out and a perfect storm (retracted middleman-ing offer) lead to enormous spontaneous price spikes.

 

That sort of meteoric rise is never sustainable, and is inherently speculatively driven. This "hype" of course juiced the print runs of the book, and lead to many multiple printings (2nds, 3rds, etc). As the unsustainable, unstable, price rise on the variants is now unwinding fast and hard, I have no doubt the print run on the book will now have downward pressure.

 

So now a book which is well received, and liked for its quality, has a strong print run head wind due to speculative fervor, and likely is oversold on 1st print regular covers to boot. The creators are committed to it, and I am sure the book will continue, but it's now had a false peak, negative secondary market hype, etc etc.

 

I just dont want to see the same happen to EoW, especially given how over-bought #1 is.

 

I am always impressed by what CBT has to say.

 

In fact, I try to collect his advice on a single blog post for future reference.

 

http://blog.testbusinessideaonline.com/modern-comic-investment-tips/

 

Will add this one to it shortly

[ItsJustRyan]

[SpaFon]

That's....hmmm...something is disturbing about that.

[Chaseman210]

 

That's....hmmm...something is disturbing about that.

 

 

 

 

[krighton]

I take everything I read with a grain of salt....

[Mike's Rack]

I take everything I read with a grain of salt....

I take mine with a rock of crack... And yeah that CBT blog is just creepy, if you unscramble the letters it spells out his genetic code so you can clone him.

[mg1902]

That's....hmmm...something is disturbing about that.

 

[krighton]

CBS has a stalker.....better him than me.

[slym2none]

Is it Dan Rather? I bet it's Dan Rather... it's Dan Rather, isn't it!?!!?

 

 

 

 

-slym

[the authority]

I think there are many factors at work in the market in addition to those brought up by CBT in this article which I agree with;

 

http://blog.testbusinessideaonline.com/modern-comic-investment-tips/

 

I was reading the Motley Fool which usually offers stock advice and I ran across an article on Billmelater and in particular, Ebay . I believe the reason comics and everything else increasing in price while other investments have struggled is clearly listed in this article;

 

http://beta.fool.com/grahamsway/2013/04/22/is-ebay-reliant-on-sub-prime-lending/32078/?source=TheMotleyFool

 

Notice increasing purchases on credit through billmelater through ebay.

 

2010 $1.4 billion

2011 $2.3 billion

2012 $3.4 billion

 

There is a $1.8 billion increase in debt from 2010 to 2012. If this were 2007 I would bail and bail immediately but this is 2013. People seem to have accepted incresing debt as a non-issue. I have worked around credit for the last 24 years and I can assure you that high risk or subprime loans increased dramatically in the auto industry and other sectors in 2012. You can see the impact on Wall Street stocks, new car sales, ebay sales, home prices and even increased food prices.

 

I have no doubt that 2013 will be better than 2012 due to the fact that credit lines will continue to increase. I can't tell you of anyone in my business who is projecting a weaker 2013 than 2012. Another sign that ebay is confident in their growth chart is the fact that they just increased fees. These and other companies don't increase fees if they think it will decrease total sales profit or total sales share .

 

Ebay like any other publicly owned business is under relentless pressure to increase profits by their shareholders. I've experienced it at companies as I'm sure many of you have also.

 

We don't know for certain that they will add to the credit available/spent in 2013 but there it is certainly tranding that way. Supply is definitely up in 2013 but I would argue that when people are flush with currency, you will see higher demand.

 

I was around in the early to mid nineties. The biggest difference I see now is the trend of the sales. In the early to mid 90s, certain books had sales in the millions and dozens had sales in the 100,000 plus mark. This was going on and people were spending their OWN money. Today, you may have 5 or 6 titles selling over 100,.000 and another 3 dozen selling 50,000 or better and they are being bought with other people's money . There is no flood in my opinion.

 

I think people are using ebays credit line to buy off ebay which is why comics last longer at Midtown and the others.

 

I am short term, meaning the next year or so, bullish on this market. I am especially so on great books like East of West. It is not just my opinion as to the quality of this comic. EVERY site review I have read is not just positive buy extremely positive. Now I bet someone can find some site that didn't like it but I can't find it.

 

I know there will be more than not that think 2012 can't be surpassed by 2013 but I say East of West, Star Wars, Five Ghosts, Helheim, Age of Ultron, Superior Spider-man, Batman/Superman, Superman Unchained, Lazarus, Jupiters Legacy, Infinity, and the list goes on.

 

I hope your collecting makes you happy either way. I try to make enough off speculating to buy more comics so I can read more. A tough cycle ;-)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 26, 2013 by The Authority

[the authority]

Is it Dan Rather? I bet it's Dan Rather... it's Dan Rather, isn't it!?!!?

 

 

 

 

-slym

 

[ZaCrew]

I think there are many factors at work in the market in addition to those brought up by CBT in this article which I agree with;

 

http://blog.testbusinessideaonline.com/modern-comic-investment-tips/

 

I was reading the Motley Fool which usually offers stock advice and I ran across an article on Billmelater and in particular, Ebay . I believe the reason comics and everything else increasing in price while other investments have struggled is clearly listed in this article;

 

http://beta.fool.com/grahamsway/2013/04/22/is-ebay-reliant-on-sub-prime-lending/32078/?source=TheMotleyFool

 

Notice increasing purchases on credit through billmelater through ebay.

 

2010 $1.4 billion

2011 $2.3 billion

2012 $3.4 billion

 

There is a $1.8 billion increase in debt from 2010 to 2012. If this were 2007 I would bail and bail immediately but this is 2013. People seem to have accepted incresing debt as a non-issue. I have worked around credit for the last 24 years and I can assure you that high risk or subprime loans increased dramatically in the auto industry and other sectors in 2012. You can see the impact on Wall Street stocks, new car sales, ebay sales, home prices and even increased food prices.

 

I have no doubt that 2013 will be better than 2012 due to the fact that credit lines will continue to increase. I can't tell you of anyone in my business who is projecting a weaker 2013 than 2012. Another sign that ebay is confident in their growth chart is the fact that they just increased fees. These and other companies don't increase fees if they think it will decrease total sales profit or total sales share .

 

Ebay like any other publicly owned business is under relentless pressure to increase profits by their shareholders. I've experienced it at companies as I'm sure many of you have also.

 

We don't know for certain that they will add to the credit available/spent in 2013 but there it is certainly tranding that way. Supply is definitely up in 2013 but I would argue that when people are flush with currency, you will see higher demand.

 

I was around in the early to mid nineties. The biggest difference I see now is the trend of the sales. In the early to mid 90s, certain books had sales in the millions and dozens had sales in the 100,000 plus mark. This was going on and people were spending their OWN money. Today, you may have 5 or 6 titles selling over 100,.000 and another 3 dozen selling 50,000 or better and they are being bought with other people's money . There is no flood in my opinion.

 

I think people are using ebays credit line to buy off ebay which is why comics last longer at Midtown and the others.

 

I am short term, meaning the next year or so, bullish on this market. I am especially so on great books like East of West. It is not just my opinion as to the quality of this comic. EVERY site review I have read is not just positive buy extremely positive. Now I bet someone can find some site that didn't like it but I can't find it.

 

I know there will be more than not that think 2012 can't be surpassed by 2013 but I say East of West, Star Wars, Five Ghosts, Helheim, Age of Ultron, Superior Spider-man, Batman/Superman, Superman Unchained, Lazarus, Jupiters Legacy, Infinity, and the list goes on.

 

I hope your collecting makes you happy either way. I try to make enough off speculating to buy more comics so I can read more. A tough cycle ;-)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Agree 100%... every time I hear somebody talk about the 90s, I just roll my eyes, especially when it comes from people in their 20s . I remember comic stores have hundreds of copies of each popular title in stock. Print runs over a million on the big titles and #1s and all this with no Ebay/Internet sales.

[Beige]

Heroes' Haven is offering $50 to retailers for their EoW RRPs (in tacky fliers at tables at the diamond summit). There's your floor...

 

i'll go $60

 

Banks are open on Sunday, mrrrah ?? better deposit 2 more cents:

 

The days of getting an Image hot book, 500 print run, for sub $100 are gone for the foreseeable future.

 

if you can buy it and slab it yourself for <$150 you have a winner(to hold, not flip). $120 would be the ideal target.

 

There are two avenues to that, buy it in 9.8 for that price from someone else, or buy a raw 9.8 from someone you trust for that price, less the cost of slab/press double ship.($85-$110). Anything more than that, you are overpaying in my mind. Anything less than that, you are making "MONIES". Since the price will almost CERTAINLY exceed the level I am talking about, my advice given my views, is act accordingly. When everyone is buying to sell to someone else, where do you fit in?

 

Yes EoW might be the greatest thing since they invented the printing press, and the big 2 people just dont get it. But be realistic about where the hype and print run is coming from. The good story keeps Sauron's Gaze, but that doesn't give you grounds to forget where he is staring.

 

Beyond that I would say. Assume that there will be at LEAST 200 of them slabbed by this time next year, probably close to a 100/100 blue/yellow split. The actual numbers will probably be a bit less, but being conservative with estimates is good. 4-6 weeks from now there will be a lot of them on ebay. 6-8 weeks from now, is probably a good time to look to buy one, if the price exceeds the numbers i said.

 

These are my views, and on them I would/will act. People are welcome to disagree, and inform me and others where I am off base. But I really would hope that somehow by getting a discussion on this ahead of time, can help prevent what happened to NWM happening to EoW. Cause I think it does harm a books readership a lot more than people realize.

 

I was saying exactly the same re NWM and got panned by the ES lovers.

It was always going to end in tears once the integrity of the 'variants' was compromised.

Or - don't tell the people 500 copies and then print another 350 for your mates to flip on ebay.

[CBT]

well, usually all I get is hate for my comments . It's nice to get some love too . As for the blog post, as a computer guy, I get it. I don't think it's creepy, it's just like saving a notepad text file of quotes for easy reference later.

 

I see in that one quote, my top end for acceptable values for the EoW RRP was a bit higher than what I said yesterday. But, since that original quote, we have had 9.8s of regular 1st prints start to built a price point.

 

In addition, pretty much all "hot" image moderns are tracking downwards at the same time. I suppose as the velocity up is so fast now, it shouldnt surprise that the mean time to price dip is shortening too.

 

I think its a combination of those factors that lead me to putting a lower high end top on what I would pay for the RRP. It makes me wonder if Image "rare variants" might be starting to show the big 2 style pattern for variants of "highest price at release, then decline to real value." Obviously, we aren't there yet, but I suppose that comes with desirability.

 

Image "rare variants" used to be overlooked because no one cared about series they hadnt heard of. Now, they all catch fire in the chase of the next "saga rrp", and then it's up to the book's buzz, optioning, to hold the price...

 

Edit:

=======

As I like to say about WD, and chasing the next WD: "is WD really WD"

so to I'll say it:

"is the Saga RRP really the Saga RRP".

 

 

and for any one who is drunk and doesnt get what i mean, "hat-tip to jjoseph7772 ", if people are going to chase the "next Saga RRP", they should make sure that the Saga RRP really is worth what people are paying for it. If it's price collapses, the "next" ones will likely follow suit, with the ceiling they can reach having lowered accordingly.

 

 

Edit 2:

=======

motley fool is great, as is seekingalpha, and zerohedge. contrarian economics ftw

 

 

 

Edited April 26, 2013 by CBT

[comicsnyc22]

well, usually all I get is hate for my comments . It's nice to get some love too . As for the blog post, as a computer guy, I get it. I don't think it's creepy, it's just like saving a notepad text file of quotes for easy reference later.

 

I see in that one quote, my top end for acceptable values for the EoW RRP was a bit higher than what I said yesterday. But, since that original quote, we have had 9.8s of regular 1st prints start to built a price point.

 

In addition, pretty much all "hot" image moderns are tracking downwards at the same time. I suppose as the velocity up is so fast now, it shouldnt surprise that the mean time to price dip is shortening too.

 

I think its a combination of those factors that lead me to putting a lower high end top on what I would pay for the RRP. It makes me wonder if Image "rare variants" might be starting to show the big 2 style pattern for variants of "highest price at release, then decline to real value." Obviously, we aren't there yet, but I suppose that comes with desirability.

 

Image "rare variants" used to be overlooked because no one cared about series they hadnt heard of. Now, they all catch fire in the chase of the next "saga rrp", and then it's up to the book's buzz, optioning, to hold the price...

 

Edit:

=======

As I like to say about WD, and chasing the next WD: "is WD really WD"

so to I'll say it:

"is the Saga RRP really the Saga RRP".

 

 

and for any one who is drunk and doesnt get what i mean, "hat-tip to jjoseph7772 ", if people are going to chase the "next Saga RRP", they should make sure that the Saga RRP really is worth what people are paying for it. If it's price collapses, the "next" ones will likely follow suit, with the ceiling they can reach having lowered accordingly.

 

 

Edit 2:

=======

motley fool is great, as is seekingalpha, and zerohedge. contrarian economics ftw

 

 

 

I know Saga's going through a dip because of the break, but the RRP is sinking fast. This was a 1,300 book a month or so ago, and now 9.8's are going for 800 on ebay. No reason why i wouldn't think it would slip more. If you can get a Raw for $100 or so, why not? You'll at least break even.